Today we have added Luis [Javy] Guerra to the 40-man roster. Our 40-man now stands at 33 players.
- Joe Jareck, Assistant Director, Public Relations of the Los Angeles Dodgers
The color in kensai's face is returning to normal now.
Diamond Leung also calls Wang "a non-tender candidate" in his blog entry, but I would imagine that the Yankees can afford to pay him a few million dollars - he made $5M in 2009 and is arbitration-eligible for the third time - as an insurance policy, to see if he can come back, rehab in the minor and be a back of the rotation starter. Still, it would be interesting to have him paired on the Dodger pitching staff with middle school classmate Hong-Chih Kuo.
Tip to commenter underdog for posting the link to Diamond's blog in the Dodger Thoughts comments.
One analysis of Aroldis Chapman
The Dodgers do not seem to be players in the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes, but he is still an interesting figure in this offseason player market. www.baseball-intellect.com has provided their analysis of Chapman, which includes several gifs demonstrating his pitching motion. I wouldn't be surprised if he needs some development at the AA/AAA level, but gets rushed by the team that signs him.
Cool Guy Times Eight
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 19, 2009 5:00 PM PST
in Minor League Updates
0 comments
has started doing a rundown of the top 200 Dodgers prospects using fanposts to post the countdown.
This is our Dodger top 30 in steroid mode. Coolguy_88888888 also did also did this last year, so take a look at his 200 from last year. This is quite a prodigious undertaking and I just want to thank him for taking the time to post his list this year on TBLA. It's members like this who help make our content richer then it would be if we only relied on the writers.
0 comments | 0 recs |
Dodgers Add Three to 40-Man Roster
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:35 AM PST
in Roster
163 comments
The Dodgers today added three players to their 40-man roster, protecting them from next month's Rule 5 draft. Ivan DeJesus, Jr., Trayvon Robinson, and Kenley Jansen were added to the roster, bringing the Dodgers' total to 32 players on the 40-man roster, heading into the free agent signing period that begins Friday.
Here's a look at each of the new roster additions:
Ivan DeJesus, Jr., ss
True Blue LA 2010 Prospect Rank: 4th
2010 Age: 23
Acquired: 2nd round (51st overall) 2005 draft, as compensation for Adrian Beltre
Info: Baseball Reference
DeJesus broke his leg sliding into home plate in spring training and missed most of the season, playing just four games in the Arizona Rookie League at the end of the year. DeJesus is known for his plate discipline (11.5% walk rate in the minors) and defense at shortstop. With Rafael Furcal under contract through at least 2011, DeJesus's best bet to make the Dodgers in the immediate future figures to be at second base. His father, Ivan DeJesus, Sr., was signed by the Dodgers as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1973, and played with the club from 1974 to 1976, before getting traded with Bill Buckner and Jeff Albert to the Cubs for Rick Monday and Rick Garman. DeJesus, Sr. hit .183 in his Dodger career, the 17th lowest batting average by a non-pitcher in Dodger history (minimum 100 plate appearances).
Trayvon Robinson, of
True Blue LA 2010 Prospect Rank: 9th
2010 Age: 22
Acquired: 10th round (316th overall) 2005 draft
Info: Baseball Reference | First Inning
In addition to being a world class mascot fighter, Robinson had a breakout season in 2009. He hit .306/.375/.500 while manning center field for the 66ers in the offensively friendly Cal League, but also performed well after his promotion to Double A Chattanooga. As a Lookout, Robinson hit .246/.358/.439 in 19 games. Robinson is a local boy, from Crenshaw High. There have been three players from Crenshaw High School make the major leagues: Chris Brown, Darryl Strawberry, and Ellis Valentine. Here's an interview with Robinson from July:
Kenley Jansen, rhp
True Blue LA 2010 Prospect Rank: not in top 15
2010 Age: 22
Acquired: signed as undrafted free agent in 2005
Info: Baseball Reference | First Inning
Jansen gained a bit of notoriety as a laser-armed catcher on the upset-minded Netherlands team in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, throwing out runners from his knees. Unfortunately for Jansen, he has never hit much in the minors (.221/.311/.337 in his minor league career). However, he still has that arm, and the Dodgers converted him to a pitcher late in 2009. He is still raw, obviously, but still managed to strike out 19 batters in 11.2 innings with the 66ers. He is pitching in the Arizona Fall League currently with Peoria. If he ever makes it to the majors, I'd put even money that he ends up with the highest batting average of any Dodger ever from Curacao.
**********
The Rule 5 draft will be held on December 10, during the Winter Metings in Indianapolis.
163 comments | 0 recs |
Jeff Bagwell is to James Loney as Pedro Martinez is to Chad Billingsley?
by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:11 PM PST
in Research
72 comments
Before there were such things as CHONE, Pecota, and Bill James' annual projection for players, there was a charming little thing called Similarity Scores, also created by Bill James. If you look at baseball-reference.com, you will find a description of the formula used for similarity scores and a credit to James' book The Politics of Glory; however, I first read about them in The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986, in which he introduced the concept, having worked on it over the past year. This was also the book that introduced me to the term sabermetrics, among other things.
I stumbled across The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986 while looking in a book store for a book that contained all the major league statistics for the 1985 season (no baseball-reference.com in those days), which I needed to prepare for a Strat-O-Matic baseball draft. (I went with a HR friendly ballpark and loaded up on power, defense be damned, and drafted Pedro Guerrero #1 at 3B/1B.) The book was an eye-opener in many ways and made me aware that there were a lot of ways to look at baseball and baseball statistics than just the traditional versions. I wonder if I would have even gravitated toward the baseball blogs that I enjoy so much today had I never crossed paths with James' Abstract. By the way, in the Dodgers chapter, James defends Lasorda's decision to pitch to Jack Clark.
If you didn't read the formula in the link, the brief version is that 1000 is a perfect match between two players. Points are then deducted from there based on differences in position, a bunch of counting statistics (e.g., hits) and a few ratios (e.g., batting average, ERA). Obviously, the higher the number, the better the match.
At baseball-reference.com, they calcluate the similarity scores on each player's page, giving the top-10 career similarities, plus the top-10 at each age of the player's career, near the bottom of the page. For example, if you scroll toward the bottom of ex-Dodger Shawn Green's player page, you'll find that his number one match in career similarity score is ex-Dodger Reggie Smith at 945. This is what similarity scores (using this formula) seem to work best for, evaluating player production over an entire career, which is good for things like Hall of Fame arguments. You'll also see that at age 29, after his last great season (2002), the 29-year old he was most similar to was Dale Murphy with a similarity score of 942.
Similarity scores don't make for a particularly great projection system, because, among other things, the stats used aren't the best for that purpose and the similarities don't account for trends (i.e., improving or not), but I'd bet that Bill James used similarity studies with different stats in play to fine tune his projection system. However, that doesn't stop the age-based similarity score summaries at baseball-reference.com from being a lot of fun to peruse and to compare current players to players throughout baseball history and see how that current player might turn out. This turns out to be a fine time to do such a thing because a) the season is over and the hot stove is still thawing out, and b) baseball-reference.com just updated them all to include the 2009 season data.
After the jump are similarity score summaries for the selected returning Dodger players at their 2009-season age. These show the top ten similar players at the same age - some of the names may surprise you:
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Dodgers History: Manager of the Year Award
by Eric Stephen on Nov 18, 2009 8:12 AM PST
in Research
55 comments
The Baseball Writers Association of America will announce the managers of the year today at 11am, and former Dodger manager Jim Tracy is the heavy favorite to walk away with NL honors. The manager of the year award has been awarded in each league since 1983. Tommy Lasorda is the only Dodger skipper to take home the hardware, winning in both 1983 and 1988. Here is a review of how the Dodgers have finished in the 26-year history of the award:
| Year | Manager | Record | MOY Finish | Award Pts | 1st Place Votes | Award Share* |
| 2008 | Joe Torre | 84-78 | 4th | 45 | 3 | 28.1% |
| 2006 | Grady Little | 88-74 | 4th | 30 | 1 | 18.8% |
| 2004 | Jim Tracy | 93-69 | 3rd | 52 | 4 | 32.5% |
| 2002 | Jim Tracy | 92-70 | 4th | 22 | 0 | 13.8% |
| 2001 | Jim Tracy | 86-76 | 2nd | 48 | 4 | 30.0% |
| 1996 | Bill Russell** | 49-37 | 5th | 6 | 0 | 4.3% |
| 1994 | Tommy Lasorda | 58-56 | t-5th | 8 | 0 | 5.7% |
| 1991 | Tommy Lasorda |
91-71 | 4th | 5 | 0 | 4.2% |
| 1990 | Tommy Lasorda |
86-76 | 3rd | 32 | 1 | 26.7% |
| 1988 | Tommy Lasorda |
94-67 | 1st | 101 | 19 | 84.2% |
| 1985 | Tommy Lasorda |
95-67 | 3rd | 39 | 3 | 32.5% |
| 1983 | Tommy Lasorda |
91-71 | 1st | 10 | 10 | 41.7% |
*Award Share is the total points as a percentage of possible points. In 1983, each ballot just named one manager. From 1984 to present, each ballot (two per team in league) is three deep, with points awarded on a 5-3-1 basis.
**Bill Russell took over for Tommy Lasorda on June 25, 1996 after Lasorda had a heart attack the previous day.
Joe Torre is expected to get some second and/or third place votes, which would make this just the third time that the Dodgers have had a manager appear on two straight ballots (Lasorda in 1990-1991, and Tracy in 2001-2002 -- four years which produced zero playoff appearances).
UPDATE: Torre finished 3rd, behind Tracy and Tony LaRussa. Torre received one first place vote, seven second place votes, and seven third place votes.
Tracy, who took over Rockies' managerial duties after Clint Hurdle's 18-28 start, guided Colorado to a 74-42 record and a berth in the playoffs by winning the wild card. Only the Yankees, at 76-39, had a better record than the Rockies since Tracy assumed the position.
Would this be Tracy's first manager of the year award? Yes, yes it would. He finished 2nd, 4th and 3rd in 2001, 2002, and 2004 respectively, while with the Dodgers.
Thanks as always to the amazing Baseball-Reference.com for this information.
55 comments | 0 recs |
Ernie Harwell is a National Treasure
by Eric Stephen on Nov 17, 2009 10:43 PM PST
in Media
14 comments
I managed to catch Studio 42 with Bob Costas tonight, as Ernie Harwell was interviewed. Harwell, the long time announcer for the Detroit Tigers, has incurable cancer, and doctors have given him mere months to live. His interview with Costas is a must see, and was very compelling and engaging hour.
Hearing anyone who has been around baseball for more than six decades is always a treat, but this interview with Harwell was especially rewarding. The man once got Babe Ruth's autograph, played cards with Jackie Robinson, and interviewed fellow Georgian "Tyrus Raymond Cobb," as Harwell referred to him. The 91-year old Harwell even recited from memory his "This is Baseball," from his Hall of Fame induction speech from over 28 years ago.
In 1948, Harwell was broadcasting games for the minor league Atlanta Crackers. Meanwhile, legendary Dodger announcer Red Barber was hospitalized with a bleeding ulcer and the club needed another announcer to fill in. Branch Rickey wanted to hire Harwell, but he was under contract with the Crackers, so in exchange for Harwell the Dodgers sent minor league catcher Cliff Dapper to the Crackers, making Harwell the first and only broadcaster ever to be traded for a player. It should be noted that Dapper has the highest batting average (.471) among Dodgers with 12 or more career plate appearances. Harwell announced games for the Dodgers through the 1949 season.
Among the many highlights of the interview:
- Harwell recalled a story of an exhibition series between the Dodgers and the Atlanta Crackers, before which the Ku Klux Klan threatened to shoot Jackie Robinson if he took the field. It was said that Gene Hermanski quipped that all the Dodger players wear number 42, so the gunmen wouldn't know whom to shoot.
- One of Harwell's famous called third strike calls: "He's out for excessive window shopping. He looked at one too many."
- Harwell recalling the old time broadcasting tradition of recreations, which meant announcers weren't at the game, but would call the game based on telegraph reports, embellishing and sometimes making up facts to fill the time.
- There were an astonishing five radio calls of Bobby Thomson's home run, "The Shot Heard 'Round The World," but Harwell was the lone television announcer. Sadly, there are no tapes of that 1951 NBC broadcast.
- Here is a clip from the interview, of Harwell remembering Jackie Robinson
- Here is a clip of Harwell reciting from memory his HOF speech
As a Dodger fan, I have been spoiled by having Vin Scully announce games for my favorite team for my entire life. I am understandably biased when I state that Scully is the greatest baseball announcer of all time. However, Harwell belongs in the discussion as well. Before the advent of the MLB Extra Innings package, I never had much opportunity to hear Harwell, but my introduction to him came as he called some playoff games for ESPN Radio roughly a decade ago. His conversational style, enthusiasm, and friendly nature really stood out to me at the time, and I made it a point to listen to Harwell as often as possible through the years.
I'm glad I had the opportunity to listen to Harwell broadcast games, and I'm glad I had the chance to watch this interview. Harwell was a great announcer, and he will be missed.
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