Ten Questions For The 2007 Dodgers, Part One
Is Matt Kemp ready to contribute at a major league level? If he isn't, when will he be?
While Kemp is no longer technically a prospect thanks to the 154 at bats he took this year for the Dodgers, he remains the Dodgers most promising young player. If he lives up to his promise, Kemp can be the power hitter that the Dodgers desperately need. However, Kemp seemed to be unable to adjust once the league figured him out. After Kemp hit his seventh home run, he hit only .201/.236/.275 in 105 at bats. Matt Kemp certainly is a big part of the Dodger's future plans, but when will he be ready? I don't think you can expect him to be the starting centerfielder in 2007, so the Dodgers will need to find a temporary solution in center. The question is when will the Dodgers be willing to hand Kemp a starting job? Waiting for someone to get hurt worked out well for the Dodgers this year, but what if Kemp's proxy doesn't go down? When do you start to give Matt Kemp the majority of starts?
What do we do with Andre Ethier?
In March 2006, Andre Ethier looked like a solid bat of the bench in 2007 and beyond. In July 2006, Ethier looked like the left fielder of the future. Now in October of 2006, I have no clue what is role is on the team. Getting benched for Marlon Anderson certainly isn't a ringing endorsement. Right now, management is saying that Ethier is the starting left fielder, but what happens if he has a bad spring training and Marlon Anderson is great? How about if Ethier is hitting .220 in April? As nice as Anderson's September was, it was a giant fluke. Prior to his time on the Dodgers, where he OPSed 1.243, Anderson OPSed .886 in the best month of his career. I'm very concerned that Grady will fall into the same trap that Jim Tracy fell into with Cesar Izturis, and continue giving him opportunities based on one good month.
Even if Ethier does keep the left field job, is he the answer? Much was made about how lucky he was on balls in play this season, but he still would have been a solid player even without that luck. The Dodgers have a need for a big home run hitter, and left field looks to be the position with the best free agents this offseason. The Dodgers maybe well served by trading Ethier to a team that needs someone who can get on base, in order to free a spot for someone like Carlos Lee.
What pitcher fills out the starting rotation?
Barring a trade, the Dodgers come into the off season with four starting pitchers: Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hong Chih Kuo. That leaves one opening in the starting rotation. There are some options currently under contract like Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson, but I'd rather not use those guys as a first option. While it's easy to say, let's go get Barry Zito/Jason Schmidt, it might not be so simple in practice. Every team in baseball with an 85 million dollar payroll or more, except the Angels, needs a strong starter. It may be possible to get Schmidt or Zito, but it's going to involve out bidding the Yankees, Red Sox, and every other powerhouse team, and this means over paying.
If you can't get Zito or Schmidt, what do you do? There's several pitchers out there like Greg Maddux, Ted Lilly or Doug Davis that are better than Tomko, but certainly aren't "dominant". This leaves trade as the way to solidify the rotation, which brings me to the next question...
Can Ned Colletti make a bold move?
No matter what you think of the end results of Ned Colletti's moves, you have to agree that they would be characterized as "safe". With the exceptions of Antonio Perez and Chuck Tiffany, throw ins in bigger deals, every player that Ned Colletti dealt had fallen well past their peak performance. Odalis Perez, Joel Guzman, Willy Aybar, et al had seen their stocks take a huge hit before they got dealt. Problem is, selling low will never produce the type of trade that you look back on a few years down the line and say "what the heck were the [team] thinking?" Selling low will almost never result in getting the great talent the Dodgers need. We have more above average talent than possibly any team in the league, yet no star talent. If Ned Colletti wants to improve the team through trade, he's going to have to make a deal that some people might not like. Sadly, the first thing I picture him doing this off-season is trading Brad Penny, since it fits right in with his pattern of selling low. Please, prove me wrong Ned.
Will Jeff Kent continue to produce at age 39?
After a terrible April, Jeff Kent pretty much had a Jeff Kent year this year, finishing the season with a .862 OPS, slightly below what he'd done the last few years, but still very good for a second baseman. However, some warning signs have shown up. First is Kent's declining defense. While his rate2 was amazing, his zone rating was the worst of his career and near the bottom of the league, and Marc Normandin's numbers place him near the bottom. The most distressing thing about Normandin's system is that these numbers are from the end of July, before Kent's last set of injuries that made him near immobile. As Kent gets older, those injuries are more likely to pile up and hurt his defense beyond the point where he is a useful second baseman, if he can stay healthy at all.
There is also the issue of players at Kent's age collapsing. It's not a guarantee by any means, PECOTA predicts Kent to put up almost the same numbers in 2007 as he did in 2006, but sometimes players just become terrible at Kent's age. The way the Dodgers are built, they need all of their players to be healthy to compete. The Dodgers need Jeff Kent to be productive at 39 years old, and that is far from guaranteed.
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Comments
Just sign 3 guys
CF stopgap: Jim Edmonds or Eric Byrnes
LF power: Carlos Lee
Legit starter: Zito or Schmidt
Add those guys to the nucleus the Dodgers already have, and I think the team should do well.
by Joseph on Oct 10, 2006 6:08 PM PDT 0 recs
My Answers, er, Guesses
- Kemp needs a year in AAA to sort out his swing and be ready for the show. He's rough around the edges, and needs to refine his skills. He will be recalled again in September or in the event of a player going down hurt, though, because he is playing very well in AAA. If he continues to dominate (.988 OPS in Vegas!!), it might be best for his development to promote him and let him develop at that level.
- Ethier is an outfielder to hold onto for now. He didn't have power, but he got on base and hit the ball pretty well, and wasn't bad defensively either. Anderson was just there because he was hot, but Ethier will be the left or right fielder next year.
- The first thing that comes to mind is Greg Maddux being retained. Not only is there the possibility of hearing that "Chicks dig the long ball" form Vin Scully if he goes yard, but he's actually not bad. He'll give the Dodgers an average of 6 innings per start, and on less than 80 pitches. He knows how to pitch to contact, which isn't strikeout dominance, but given how few he walks, is still rather dominant. I can see a Brad Penny trade, so I'll go with Matsusaka as the other pickup, as Colletti hopes that giving Saito a teammate who can speak his language will help convince him to stay.
- How bold is a trade that features Brad Penny and Alex Rodriguez? The important thing will be guarding against losing other players, but maybe Colletti will be lucky enough to get away with throwing Toby Hall in the package (along with Betemit, who the Yankees could deal with as an 8 hitter or something). I trust Ned not to trade Broxton, Ethier, or Billingsley here. I would be shocked if he traded Kuo instead of Penny, but at the same time rather satisfied that Colletti could capitalize.
- Jeff Kent hit the injury bug. It will all depend on whether he stays healthy in the offseason. I don't know whether being the most productive Dodger in the postseason (at least at the plate) will help him or not, but I think he's got one year left in him. I'd expect either around 22 hr from him, or for Marlon Anderson to start at 2nd, and I'd say 59% confident in the 22 homers.
by StolenMonkey86 on Oct 13, 2006 12:11 AM PDT 0 recs
Updated Numbers
by Marc Normandin on Oct 16, 2006 7:29 PM PDT 0 recs




