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Jeff Kent and age 40

I think probable HOF, Jeff Kent should do the sensible thing and retire. Having him in the clubhouse when things are going well is hardly a picinic. What will he be like when instead of one of the best players on the team, he's one of the worse? He is going to be a terrible fit if the Dodgers continue to go with a youth movement.

It seems very likely that Jeff Kent will be playing 2nd base for the Dodgers in 2008. At least he will start out playing 2nd base for the Dodgers, if he ends the season playing 2nd base is another question altogether. He holds the Dodger single season home run record for ages 37, 38, and 39. He would only have to hit 2 home runs to win the 40 year old single season crown. Take a look at Dodgers who were age 39 and then fell off a cliff. Fred McGriff was one of the great home run hitters of his era, hit 13 in an injury plagued 39 year old season and then was done. Steve Finley who looked like he could play forever at the end of the 2004 season hit 36 home runs at age 39. He hit 19 over the next 3 years. So while Jeff Kent is a platinum bet to own the Dodgers single season home run record for a 40 year old is he a good bet to be any good?

As Jeff Kent turns 40 he is about to enter an area that historically has not been kind to 2nd baseman. Here is a list of 2nd Baseman sorted by age who ever did squat since integration. As you can see only HOF Joe Morgan was able to accomplish the feat at the age of 40 and most of that was accomplished by his OBP and the OPS+ of 103 is hardly noteworthy. I see several players who interest me when looking to see if Kent can withstand what no one else has been able to do. Bobby Grich one of the most underappreciated players of his time was done at age 37. HOF Craig Biggio's last good season came at age 39. At age 40 he fell off a cliff. Lou Whitaker retired at age 38 and given that he retired at such a high level it is possible he'd been a decent play at age 40. Old friend Davey Lopes had an outstanding season at age 38 for Oakland but it would be the last time he played 2nd base on a regular basis.

That is it folks, not very inspiring if your counting on Jeff Kent to continue to be an offensive force in 2008 at age 40. Throw in the fact that if he's not way above average offensively, he's killing you defensively. He cheats so much when a runner is on 1st base so that he can get to 2nd that the hole between 1st and 2nd results in endless singles snaking their way into right field. He still has a strong arm and that is about the only positive I can say about his defense. He's just one stupid head first slide home from earning his millions via the disabled list. He's used several Dodger black ballplayers as his verbal punching bag while he himself shows no more base running acumen then the idiot Giambi brother.

Just as McCourt mandated in the fall of 2005 that Milton Bradley find another uniform, I would do everything possible to make sure Jeff Kent was NOT playing 2nd base for the Dodgers in 2008. History is not on Jeff Kent's side. Ned has made a lot of questionable moves, giving Jeff Kent an extension for 2008 will probably also go in the negative ledger. If this team is counting on Jeff Kent to be a clean up hitter for a playoff caliber team they are going to be very disappointed.

I'd welcome any opinions on why Jeff Kent at age 40 is going to be a positive for the Dodgers in 2008.

1 recs | Comment 6 comments

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Kent is Unique
He may be an ass, but I wouldn't bet on him being done just yet.

If you extend the list to 2Bmen 37 or older, Kent has 3 of the top 6 seasons by OPS+.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/fBVM

Lou Whitaker's 37 & 38 seasons are up there, but he only played in 176 games total in those two seasons.  Kent has been much more durable (400 games total the last 3 years).

So, while no one has really produced at age 40 (outside of Morgan), no one had produced like Jeff Kent's 37-39 seasons either. Kent is already in unchartered waters.  He's got a long way to fall yet.

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Nov 12, 2007 2:51 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kent Over the Hill? I think Not!!!
Getting rid of Jeff Kent right now is out of the question or would be stupid really. Offensively he is our most consistant guy and as far as defense or fielding goes, he was ranked 6th best in the NL out of all 2nd baseman. Who cares whether he is flashy or not, the guy is still a gamer and gives 110% every fricken game. I say keep him for as long as he wants to play, or at least one more year. He is worth the $9-10M. Then put Delwyn Young in there and trade Abreau. DY's original position is at 2B anyhow. Okay now let's revisit Jeff Kent's year vs. The National League's 2nd Baseman...

Hits - 6th in NL
Doubles - 4th in NL
Home Runs - 4th in NL
RBI's - 5th in NL
Total Bases - 5th in NL
On Base Pct. - 5th in NL
Slugging Pct. - 3rd in NL
Batting Avg. - 4th in NL

Those are still stellar numbers. Well worth the one year option $$$'s. By then Delwyn Young could be primed and ready to take over and offer the same type of offensive pop if not more considering Kent's age!

If we sign A-Rod & Andruw and the Youth Shows up to play, there will be plenty of protection for and Kent will hit 25+ homers with 95+ RBI's. That is my prediction and I am sticking to it!

by DodgersDaWgs on Nov 12, 2007 3:12 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

110%
Kent gave 0% in 26 games in 2007, as he only appeared in 136 of 162 games.

Also, there is more to fielding than fielding percentage, which only measures the balls a fielder actually gets to.  What makes Kent an awful fielder is his complete and utter lack of range.

http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/2007-plus-minus-leaders.asp

Kent ranked as the 4th worst second sacker in MLB last season, according to John Dewan's +/- system, at 14 plays worse than an average

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Nov 12, 2007 3:24 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is no way
that he should retire.  Or more specifically, there is no way his retirement would be good for the Dodgers.

Every option we have at second base is inferior.  For that matter, every option we have at first base is also inferior, should either Kent prove incabable of playing 2B defensively next year or should we go with better options at second (A-Rod, for example, in wild fantasies).

Protection, btw, has been demonstrated repeatedly be be a complete myth, so the idea that Kent is suddenly going to improve because of guys hitting around him is not reasonable.

by Paul Scott on Nov 12, 2007 3:54 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PECOTA
disagree with your "off a cliff at 40" projection, seeing Kent at MLRv of .110.  It predicts a significant drop for him in 2009, another in 2010 and sees him retiring after 2010.

If true, very good timing of his contract for the Dodgers.

by Paul Scott on Nov 12, 2007 4:00 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re
I'll be disagreeing with this in much longer form in a couple days :).

by Andrew on Nov 12, 2007 5:42 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I understand
all of that but here is the rub. The projections are wrong. Check out what Pecota projected for Finley and Biggio after their 39-year-old seasons. Pecota never projects a player to fall off a cliff after a successful season. After Biggio's 39 year old 806 OPS season they projected a 762 OPS. He had an OPS of 728. Finley had an OPS of 815 at age 39 and Pecota projected 780 for Finley at age 40. It was 545

Health will be the undoing. Kent still plays hard, dives quite a bit and usually to no avail, as he's to slow to make the play from the ground even if he comes up with ball. He slides hard and he is going to be just a little bit slower in getting out of the way on the pivot. It will add up to lots of dings and he's strong enough to play through the dings but to old to play above average through the dings. It is not by mistake that no 2nd baseman is successful after the age of 39.

This is fun being in a corner by myself.

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 12, 2007 5:54 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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