There have been 125 seasons since 1947 where a player has posted an OPS+ greater then 120 while being younger then 23 and having more then 200 at bats. Many of those players went on to have HOF or near HOF careers. A decent % did not. Of the ones that did not I was curious to see if there was a relationship between early plate discipline or not. Matt Kemp shows up on this list and his (OBP-AVG) is the 3rd worse on the list. My feeling was that I would find that the players with the best discipline would go on to greater glory and that the players with the least amount of discipline would struggle.
While I could find examples of players with lousy plate discipline struggling after success at an early age, (Ellis Valentin, Rich Coggins, Alex Johnson, Dave Roberts) I also found examples of players who struggled that had good or even excellent plate discipline (Curt Blefary, Ben Grieve, Bernie Carbo).
I counted about 13 players who I would consider flame outs. Players who had excellent success at an early age but for whatever reason were unable to put together a solid career.
I counted about 18 players who I considered to have "good" careers. These players had a total (WARP3 greater then 40 and less then 80) and whose EQA was below 300.
I counted about 21 players who I considered to have "great" careers but fell short of the HOF. Some of them might even belong in the HOF. These players either played a position such as catcher(Freehan, Porter, Torre, Simmons) and had excellent EQA's and WARP3's or were position players who had EQA's above .295 and WARP3 totals above 80.
I counted 18 HOF players.
I counted 6 active players who I expect to make the HOF very easily.
Tony Conigliaro was well on his way to a HOF career when a fastball to the head basically ended his career. He is the only player to be on this list 4 times. From age 19 - 22.
Greg Gross gets special mention as he posted an OPS+ > 120 while not hitting a home run. He ended up being a valuable platoon player and I just had no idea how to rate him.
This list is interesting because it has two of the players most often mentioned by Dodger fans at the moment. Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera.
Several players who became flame outs ended up being traded but NO ONE was ever traded after posting a year like Matt Kemp posted at the age of 19-22. Also no one has been traded to my knowledge at the age of Miguel Cabrera after what he has accomplished.
If they end up being the centerpiece of a mutual trade, it might well be the most amazing thing to happen this winter.
Name | OBP-Avg | Age | Career | Career-EQA | Career-WARP3 | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | PA | Year | AB | BB | IBB | SO |
Dave Roberts | 0.240 | 22 | FO | 0.243 | 9.2 | 0.286 | 0.310 | 0.472 | 0.782 | 123 | 503 | 1973 | 479 | 17 | 3 | 83 |
Orlando Cepeda | 0.300 | 20 | HOF | 0.302 | 89 | 0.312 | 0.342 | 0.512 | 0.854 | 125 | 644 | 1958 | 603 | 29 | 7 | 84 |
Matt Kemp | 0.310 | 22 | ??? | 0.287 | 4 | 0.342 | 0.373 | 0.521 | 0.894 | 125 | 311 | 2007 | 292 | 16 | 0 | 66 |
Bob Horner | 0.320 | 21 | Great/Injuries | 0.290 | 42.5 | 0.314 | 0.346 | 0.552 | 0.898 | 135 | 515 | 1979 | 487 | 22 | 6 | 74 |
Harold Baines | 0.320 | 22 | Great | 0.291 | 96 | 0.286 | 0.318 | 0.482 | 0.800 | 130 | 296 | 1981 | 280 | 12 | 4 | 41 |
Ted Simmons | 0.330 | 22 | Great | 0.283 | 95.3 | 0.303 | 0.336 | 0.465 | 0.801 | 127 | 629 | 1972 | 594 | 29 | 8 | 57 |
Vada Pinson | 0.360 | 22 | Good | 0.278 | 78.2 | 0.343 | 0.379 | 0.504 | 0.883 | 130 | 659 | 1961 | 607 | 39 | 1 | 63 |
Jeff Francoeur | 0.360 | 21 | ??? | 0.268 | 11.9 | 0.300 | 0.336 | 0.549 | 0.885 | 126 | 274 | 2005 | 257 | 11 | 3 | 58 |
Hank Aaron | 0.370 | 22 | HOF | 0.325 | 211.1 | 0.328 | 0.365 | 0.558 | 0.923 | 151 | 660 | 1956 | 609 | 37 | 6 | 54 |
Orlando Cepeda | 0.380 | 21 | HOF | 0.302 | 89 | 0.317 | 0.355 | 0.522 | 0.877 | 133 | 647 | 1959 | 605 | 33 | 10 | 100 |
Ellis Valentine | 0.380 | 22 | FO | 0.275 | 22.4 | 0.293 | 0.331 | 0.504 | 0.835 | 124 | 541 | 1977 | 508 | 30 | 3 | 58 |
Bob Horner | 0.390 | 22 | Great/Injuries | 0.290 | 42.5 | 0.268 | 0.307 | 0.529 | 0.836 | 127 | 495 | 1980 | 463 | 27 | 3 | 50 |
Jim Rice | 0.410 | 22 | Great | 0.294 | 83.2 | 0.309 | 0.350 | 0.491 | 0.841 | 127 | 613 | 1975 | 564 | 36 | 7 | 122 |
Alex Johnson | 0.430 | 22 | FO | 0.269 | 30.1 | 0.294 | 0.337 | 0.443 | 0.780 | 120 | 280 | 1965 | 262 | 15 | 3 | 60 |
Juan Gonzalez | 0.440 | 22 | Great | 0.302 | 78.2 | 0.260 | 0.304 | 0.529 | 0.833 | 133 | 632 | 1992 | 584 | 35 | 1 | 143 |
Rich Coggins | 0.440 | 22 | FO | 0.260 | 9.3 | 0.319 | 0.363 | 0.468 | 0.831 | 134 | 426 | 1973 | 389 | 28 | 2 | 24 |
George Brett | 0.450 | 22 | HOF | 0.305 | 134 | 0.308 | 0.353 | 0.456 | 0.809 | 125 | 697 | 1975 | 634 | 46 | 6 | 49 |
Orlando Cepeda | 0.460 | 22 | HOF | 0.302 | 89 | 0.297 | 0.343 | 0.497 | 0.840 | 132 | 615 | 1960 | 569 | 34 | 9 | 91 |
Bob Horner | 0.470 | 20 | Great/Injuries | 0.290 | 42.5 | 0.266 | 0.313 | 0.539 | 0.852 | 124 | 359 | 1978 | 323 | 24 | 2 | 42 |
Vladimir Guerrero | 0.470 | 22 | Active-Great | 0.316 | 82 | 0.324 | 0.371 | 0.589 | 0.960 | 150 | 677 | 1998 | 623 | 42 | 13 | 95 |
Al Kaline | 0.480 | 22 | HOF | 0.299 | 127.4 | 0.295 | 0.343 | 0.478 | 0.821 | 120 | 636 | 1957 | 577 | 43 | 7 | 38 |
Alex Rodriguez | 0.500 | 21 | Active-Great | 0.323 | 138.1 | 0.300 | 0.350 | 0.496 | 0.846 | 120 | 638 | 1997 | 587 | 41 | 1 | 99 |
Alex Rodriguez | 0.500 | 22 | Active-Great | 0.323 | 138.1 | 0.310 | 0.360 | 0.560 | 0.920 | 136 | 748 | 1998 | 686 | 45 | 0 | 121 |
Bill Freehan | 0.500 | 22 | Great | 0.276 | 74 | 0.300 | 0.350 | 0.462 | 0.812 | 122 | 572 | 1964 | 520 | 36 | 3 | 68 |
Paul Molitor | 0.500 | 22 | HOF | 0.299 | 133.5 | 0.322 | 0.372 | 0.469 | 0.841 | 126 | 645 | 1979 | 584 | 48 | 5 | 48 |
Eddie Murray | 0.500 | 21 | HOF | 0.300 | 139.7 | 0.283 | 0.333 | 0.470 | 0.803 | 123 | 666 | 1977 | 611 | 48 | 6 | 104 |
Greg Luzinski | 0.510 | 21 | Good | 0.296 | 61.8 | 0.281 | 0.332 | 0.453 | 0.785 | 120 | 611 | 1972 | 563 | 42 | 4 | 114 |
Travis Fryman | 0.510 | 21 | Good | 0.275 | 74 | 0.297 | 0.348 | 0.470 | 0.818 | 127 | 251 | 1990 | 232 | 17 | 0 | 51 |
Hank Aaron | 0.520 | 21 | HOF | 0.325 | 211.1 | 0.314 | 0.366 | 0.540 | 0.906 | 143 | 665 | 1955 | 602 | 49 | 5 | 61 |
Jack Clark | 0.520 | 22 | Great | 0.309 | 91 | 0.306 | 0.358 | 0.537 | 0.895 | 152 | 657 | 1978 | 592 | 50 | 8 | 72 |
Johnny Bench | 0.520 | 22 | HOF | 0.291 | 120.6 | 0.293 | 0.345 | 0.587 | 0.932 | 141 | 671 | 1970 | 605 | 54 | 9 | 102 |
Cal Ripken | 0.530 | 22 | HOF | 0.283 | 169 | 0.318 | 0.371 | 0.517 | 0.888 | 144 | 726 | 1983 | 663 | 58 | 0 | 97 |
Ken Griffey | 0.530 | 22 | Active-Great | 0.311 | 134.1 | 0.308 | 0.361 | 0.535 | 0.896 | 149 | 617 | 1992 | 565 | 44 | 15 | 67 |
Frank Robinson | 0.540 | 21 | HOF | 0.324 | 160.9 | 0.322 | 0.376 | 0.529 | 0.905 | 135 | 677 | 1957 | 611 | 44 | 5 | 92 |
Tony Conigliaro | 0.540 | 22 | Injuries | 0.276 | 24.2 | 0.287 | 0.341 | 0.519 | 0.860 | 142 | 389 | 1967 | 349 | 27 | 2 | 58 |
Brian McCann | 0.550 | 22 | ??? | 0.288 | 15 | 0.333 | 0.388 | 0.572 | 0.960 | 143 | 492 | 2006 | 442 | 41 | 8 | 54 |
Clint Hurdle | 0.550 | 22 | FO | 0.271 | 11.6 | 0.294 | 0.349 | 0.458 | 0.807 | 120 | 438 | 1980 | 395 | 34 | 5 | 61 |
Vada Pinson | 0.550 | 20 | Good | 0.278 | 78.2 | 0.316 | 0.371 | 0.509 | 0.880 | 128 | 706 | 1959 | 648 | 55 | 3 | 98 |
Alex Rodriguez | 0.560 | 20 | Active-Great | 0.323 | 138.1 | 0.358 | 0.414 | 0.631 | 1.045 | 160 | 677 | 1996 | 601 | 59 | 1 | 104 |
Cesar Cedeno | 0.560 | 22 | Great/Injuries | 0.293 | 86.7 | 0.320 | 0.376 | 0.537 | 0.913 | 152 | 576 | 1973 | 525 | 41 | 7 | 79 |
Jim Ray Hart | 0.560 | 22 | Great/Injuries | 0.298 | 42 | 0.286 | 0.342 | 0.498 | 0.840 | 132 | 625 | 1964 | 566 | 47 | 4 | 94 |
Will Clark | 0.560 | 22 | Great | 0.312 | 105 | 0.287 | 0.343 | 0.444 | 0.787 | 121 | 458 | 1986 | 408 | 34 | 10 | 76 |
Joe Torre | 0.570 | 22 | Great | 0.298 | 104 | 0.293 | 0.350 | 0.431 | 0.781 | 125 | 556 | 1963 | 501 | 42 | 4 | 79 |
Juan Gonzalez | 0.570 | 21 | Great | 0.302 | 78.2 | 0.264 | 0.321 | 0.479 | 0.800 | 121 | 595 | 1991 | 545 | 42 | 7 | 118 |
Grady Sizemore | 0.590 | 22 | ??? | 0.301 | 28.3 | 0.289 | 0.348 | 0.484 | 0.832 | 123 | 706 | 2005 | 640 | 52 | 1 | 132 |
Johnny Bench | 0.600 | 21 | HOF | 0.291 | 120.6 | 0.293 | 0.353 | 0.487 | 0.840 | 129 | 592 | 1969 | 532 | 49 | 7 | 86 |
Rafael Palmeiro | 0.600 | 22 | Great | 0.305 | 138.3 | 0.276 | 0.336 | 0.543 | 0.879 | 126 | 244 | 1987 | 221 | 20 | 1 | 26 |
Greg Luzinski | 0.610 | 22 | Good | 0.296 | 61.8 | 0.285 | 0.346 | 0.484 | 0.830 | 126 | 671 | 1973 | 610 | 51 | 9 | 135 |
Kent Hrbek | 0.620 | 22 | Great | 0.299 | 79.6 | 0.301 | 0.363 | 0.485 | 0.848 | 128 | 591 | 1982 | 532 | 54 | 12 | 80 |
Miguel Cabrera | 0.620 | 22 | Active-Great | 0.314 | 39 | 0.323 | 0.385 | 0.561 | 0.946 | 151 | 685 | 2005 | 613 | 64 | 12 | 125 |
Boog Powell | 0.630 | 21 | Great | 0.298 | 76.3 | 0.265 | 0.328 | 0.470 | 0.798 | 125 | 548 | 1963 | 491 | 49 | 8 | 87 |
Dick Allen | 0.640 | 22 | Great | 0.324 | 92.8 | 0.318 | 0.382 | 0.557 | 0.939 | 162 | 708 | 1964 | 632 | 67 | 13 | 138 |
Earl Williams | 0.640 | 22 | FO | 0.268 | 21.2 | 0.260 | 0.324 | 0.491 | 0.815 | 123 | 550 | 1971 | 497 | 42 | 5 | 80 |
Tony Conigliaro | 0.640 | 19 | Injuries | 0.276 | 24.2 | 0.290 | 0.354 | 0.530 | 0.884 | 138 | 444 | 1964 | 404 | 35 | 1 | 78 |
Cesar Cedeno | 0.650 | 21 | Great/Injuries | 0.293 | 86.7 | 0.320 | 0.385 | 0.537 | 0.922 | 162 | 625 | 1972 | 559 | 56 | 5 | 62 |
Tony Conigliaro | 0.650 | 21 | Injuries | 0.276 | 24.2 | 0.265 | 0.330 | 0.487 | 0.817 | 122 | 628 | 1966 | 558 | 52 | 8 | 112 |
Ken Griffey | 0.660 | 20 | Active-Great | 0.311 | 134.1 | 0.300 | 0.366 | 0.481 | 0.847 | 135 | 666 | 1990 | 597 | 63 | 12 | 81 |
Reggie Jackson | 0.660 | 22 | HOF | 0.305 | 123.8 | 0.250 | 0.316 | 0.452 | 0.768 | 138 | 614 | 1968 | 553 | 50 | 5 | 171 |
Carl Yastrzemski | 0.670 | 22 | HOF | 0.295 | 133.5 | 0.296 | 0.363 | 0.469 | 0.832 | 120 | 719 | 1962 | 646 | 66 | 7 | 82 |
Gary Matthews | 0.670 | 22 | Good | 0.287 | 64 | 0.300 | 0.367 | 0.444 | 0.811 | 120 | 605 | 1973 | 540 | 58 | 7 | 83 |
Willie Horton | 0.670 | 22 | Good | 0.281 | 53.2 | 0.273 | 0.340 | 0.490 | 0.830 | 132 | 572 | 1965 | 512 | 48 | 9 | 101 |
Al Kaline | 0.690 | 21 | HOF | 0.299 | 127.4 | 0.314 | 0.383 | 0.530 | 0.913 | 139 | 693 | 1956 | 617 | 70 | 4 | 55 |
Duke Snider | 0.690 | 22 | HOF | 0.309 | 94 | 0.292 | 0.361 | 0.493 | 0.854 | 123 | 615 | 1949 | 552 | 56 | 0 | 92 |
Mel Hall | 0.690 | 22 | FO | 0.273 | 35 | 0.283 | 0.352 | 0.488 | 0.840 | 128 | 458 | 1983 | 410 | 42 | 6 | 101 |
Tony Conigliaro | 0.690 | 20 | Injuries | 0.276 | 24.2 | 0.269 | 0.338 | 0.512 | 0.850 | 133 | 586 | 1965 | 521 | 51 | 6 | 116 |
Andy Carey | 0.710 | 22 | FO | 0.257 | 26.2 | 0.302 | 0.373 | 0.423 | 0.796 | 121 | 471 | 1954 | 411 | 43 | 0 | 38 |
Eddie Murray | 0.710 | 22 | HOF | 0.300 | 139.7 | 0.285 | 0.356 | 0.480 | 0.836 | 140 | 690 | 1978 | 610 | 70 | 7 | 97 |
Rick Monday | 0.710 | 21 | Good | 0.288 | 56.4 | 0.251 | 0.322 | 0.419 | 0.741 | 121 | 459 | 1967 | 406 | 42 | 2 | 107 |
Jerry Turner | 0.720 | 22 | FO | 0.266 | 11 | 0.267 | 0.339 | 0.413 | 0.752 | 121 | 320 | 1976 | 281 | 32 | 3 | 38 |
Ken Griffey | 0.720 | 21 | Active-Great | 0.311 | 134.1 | 0.327 | 0.399 | 0.527 | 0.926 | 155 | 633 | 1991 | 548 | 71 | 21 | 82 |
Larry Hisle | 0.720 | 22 | Good | 0.290 | 48.4 | 0.266 | 0.338 | 0.459 | 0.797 | 124 | 537 | 1969 | 482 | 48 | 8 | 152 |
Miguel Cabrera | 0.720 | 21 | Active-Great | 0.314 | 39 | 0.294 | 0.366 | 0.512 | 0.878 | 130 | 685 | 2004 | 603 | 68 | 5 | 148 |
Richie Hebner | 0.720 | 22 | Good | 0.285 | 58.5 | 0.290 | 0.362 | 0.464 | 0.826 | 123 | 475 | 1970 | 420 | 42 | 5 | 48 |
Albert Pujols | 0.740 | 21 | Active-Great | 0.340 | 77.4 | 0.329 | 0.403 | 0.610 | 1.013 | 157 | 676 | 2001 | 590 | 69 | 6 | 93 |
Jeff Burroughs | 0.760 | 22 | Good | 0.289 | 43.7 | 0.279 | 0.355 | 0.487 | 0.842 | 141 | 605 | 1973 | 526 | 67 | 3 | 88 |
Jason Thompson | 0.770 | 22 | Good | 0.291 | 48.8 | 0.270 | 0.347 | 0.487 | 0.834 | 121 | 668 | 1977 | 585 | 73 | 2 | 91 |
Richie Ashburn | 0.770 | 21 | Great | 0.291 | 108.9 | 0.333 | 0.410 | 0.400 | 0.810 | 122 | 530 | 1948 | 463 | 60 | 0 | 22 |
Ron Santo | 0.780 | 21 | Great | 0.295 | 117.7 | 0.284 | 0.362 | 0.479 | 0.841 | 121 | 655 | 1961 | 578 | 73 | 7 | 77 |
Darryl Strawberry | 0.790 | 21 | Great | 0.307 | 74.2 | 0.257 | 0.336 | 0.512 | 0.848 | 134 | 473 | 1983 | 420 | 47 | 9 | 128 |
Greg Gross | 0.790 | 21 | Platoon | 0.273 | 32 | 0.314 | 0.393 | 0.377 | 0.770 | 121 | 676 | 1974 | 589 | 76 | 4 | 39 |
Richie Hebner | 0.790 | 21 | Good | 0.285 | 58.5 | 0.301 | 0.380 | 0.420 | 0.800 | 127 | 532 | 1969 | 459 | 53 | 10 | 53 |
Albert Pujols | 0.800 | 22 | Active-Great | 0.340 | 77.4 | 0.314 | 0.394 | 0.561 | 0.955 | 151 | 675 | 2002 | 590 | 72 | 13 | 69 |
Al Kaline | 0.810 | 20 | HOF | 0.299 | 127.4 | 0.340 | 0.421 | 0.546 | 0.967 | 162 | 681 | 1955 | 588 | 82 | 12 | 57 |
Willie Mays | 0.820 | 20 | HOF | 0.328 | 214 | 0.274 | 0.356 | 0.472 | 0.828 | 120 | 524 | 1951 | 464 | 57 | 0 | 60 |
Bobby Bonds | 0.820 | 22 | Great | 0.298 | 95.2 | 0.254 | 0.336 | 0.407 | 0.743 | 122 | 349 | 1968 | 307 | 38 | 0 | 84 |
David Wright | 0.820 | 22 | ??? | 0.316 | 33 | 0.306 | 0.388 | 0.523 | 0.911 | 139 | 657 | 2005 | 575 | 72 | 2 | 113 |
Mickey Mantle | 0.830 | 20 | HOF | 0.340 | 149.1 | 0.311 | 0.394 | 0.530 | 0.924 | 162 | 626 | 1952 | 549 | 75 | 0 | 111 |
Terry Puhl | 0.840 | 20 | Good | 0.283 | 55 | 0.301 | 0.385 | 0.402 | 0.787 | 121 | 265 | 1977 | 229 | 30 | 0 | 31 |
B.J. Upton | 0.860 | 22 | ??? | 0.290 | 7.5 | 0.300 | 0.386 | 0.508 | 0.894 | 136 | 548 | 2007 | 474 | 65 | 4 | 154 |
Keith Hernandez | 0.870 | 22 | Great/Coke | 0.300 | 112.5 | 0.289 | 0.376 | 0.428 | 0.804 | 127 | 428 | 1976 | 374 | 49 | 5 | 53 |
Tim Raines | 0.870 | 21 | Great | 0.307 | 123.9 | 0.304 | 0.391 | 0.438 | 0.829 | 135 | 363 | 1981 | 313 | 45 | 5 | 31 |
Manny Ramirez | 0.880 | 22 | Active-Great | 0.329 | 106 | 0.269 | 0.357 | 0.521 | 0.878 | 124 | 336 | 1994 | 290 | 42 | 4 | 72 |
Vic Wertz | 0.880 | 22 | Good | 0.285 | 67 | 0.288 | 0.376 | 0.432 | 0.808 | 122 | 382 | 1947 | 333 | 47 | 0 | 66 |
Rickey Henderson | 0.890 | 22 | HOF | 0.315 | 187.7 | 0.319 | 0.408 | 0.437 | 0.845 | 150 | 493 | 1981 | 423 | 64 | 4 | 68 |
Frank Robinson | 0.890 | 20 | HOF | 0.324 | 160.9 | 0.290 | 0.379 | 0.558 | 0.937 | 143 | 668 | 1956 | 572 | 64 | 7 | 95 |
Austin Kearns | 0.920 | 22 | ??? | 0.282 | 31.5 | 0.315 | 0.407 | 0.500 | 0.907 | 134 | 435 | 2002 | 372 | 54 | 3 | 81 |
Jim Fregosi | 0.920 | 22 | Good | 0.278 | 77 | 0.277 | 0.369 | 0.463 | 0.832 | 141 | 591 | 1964 | 505 | 72 | 2 | 87 |
Darryl Strawberry | 0.920 | 22 | Great | 0.307 | 74.2 | 0.251 | 0.343 | 0.467 | 0.810 | 127 | 602 | 1984 | 522 | 75 | 15 | 131 |
Roy Sievers | 0.920 | 22 | Good | 0.288 | 60.1 | 0.306 | 0.398 | 0.471 | 0.869 | 126 | 545 | 1949 | 471 | 70 | 0 | 75 |
Scott Rolen | 0.940 | 22 | Active-Great | 0.297 | 95 | 0.283 | 0.377 | 0.469 | 0.846 | 121 | 657 | 1997 | 561 | 76 | 4 | 138 |
Rocky Colavito | 0.960 | 22 | Great | 0.295 | 75.3 | 0.276 | 0.372 | 0.531 | 0.903 | 135 | 380 | 1956 | 322 | 49 | 0 | 46 |
Rick Monday | 0.970 | 22 | Good | 0.288 | 56.4 | 0.274 | 0.371 | 0.402 | 0.773 | 141 | 563 | 1968 | 482 | 72 | 7 | 143 |
Ben Grieve | 0.980 | 22 | FO | 0.286 | 27.3 | 0.288 | 0.386 | 0.458 | 0.844 | 123 | 678 | 1998 | 583 | 85 | 3 | 123 |
Johnny Briggs | 0.980 | 22 | Good | 0.289 | 44.4 | 0.282 | 0.380 | 0.490 | 0.870 | 141 | 297 | 1966 | 255 | 41 | 3 | 55 |