Community Top 30 Prospects - 2008

by Andrew on Dec 4, 2007 8:58 AM PST in News Comment 35 comments

Now that Baseball America has released their top 10 prospects list for the Dodgers, I feel like it's time to do a community top 30 prospects list yet again. Like last year, list anywhere from your top 10 to top 30 prospects in the comments. After a couple weeks, I'll total them all up (a first place vote gets 30 points, second place gets 29, etc.) and come up with the community prospect list.

You can see last years results in the left sidebar, but they were the result of only six or seven people voting. I'm shooting for 10 this year, I think we can do it.

This is my list. Note that this is pretty much a rough draft and will evolve over the next couple weeks as others point out people that I just plum forgot, or I learn the guy with great numbers only throws 80 miles an hour. While I'm certainly far more receptive to scouting reports than I used to be, I do believe that you actually have to accomplish something to become a highly rated prospect, so my rankings take that into account. Some notes on specific players are below.

Andy LaRoche
Clayton Kershaw
James McDonald
Jonathan Meloan
Scott Elbert
Chin-Lung Hu
Andrew Lambo
Ivan DeJesus
Josh Bell
Blake Dewitt
Chris Withrow
Pedro Baez
Austin Gallagher
Bryan Morris
Delwyn Young
Xavier Paul
Steven Johnson
Ramon Troncoso
Justin Orenduff
Wesley Wright
James Adkins
Garrett White
Kyle Smit
Luis Ferraras
Greg Miller
Lucas May
Cory Wade
Bridger Hunt
Michael Watt
Preston Mattingly

Clayton Kershaw - Ranked below LaRoche because LaRoche still has his holy grail type numbers and I have a really hard time trusting pitchers who haven't got it done in AA yet. The mere fact he's in AA at age 19 is huge but he struggled with both control and allowing the jack. A big first half will vault him into the stratosphere, and suddenly make all of his upside into something more tangible, but until then I don't think he's quite as close to big league ready as we'd like to believe.

Chin-Lung Hu - He made a believer out of me this year after I called his first half a huge fluke. However, he walked only 32 times in 546 at bats, and only six times in 192 AAA at bats. Until he solves that problem, he's a huge risk to put up a .300 on base percentage, and that's simply unacceptable for any starting player.

Andrew Lambo - His .342 average this year was probably a bit fluky. He had a .407 BABIP with only a 12.7 line drive percentage. Still, he showed good control of the strike zone with 25 walks against 38 strikeouts, along with decent power. I wouldn't expect him to hit like this when he goes to low A next year, but he's probably the best pure bat aside from LaRoche that we have in the farm system.

Chris Withrow - Logan White picked him first, he must be good. That's about all I have on him since he only pitched nine innings this year. To his credit he fanned 13 in those frames. Going to need to actually do something for him to move up on my list.

Pedro Baez - I know nothing about him, but scouts seem to love him. Hopefully he'll actually start hitting and make a believer out of me

Delwyn Young - Not nearly as impressed by his 2007 campaign as most people. His strikeout rate isn't terrible, but when you couple that with only 38 walks in 490 at bats you have a guy that will likely be abused by big league pitching. Plus, he's 25 in a massive hitters park. Huge seasons like that should be expected if you're going to make any kind of impact in the bigs. Still, he's almost guaranteed to be in the bigs for the next few years, though not necessarily on the Dodgers, so he gets a decent ranking.

Luis Ferraras - Blew away the rookie league at age 17, striking out 27 in 27.1 innings while allowing only three earned runs.

Bridger Hunt - My pet prospect. Probably doesn't deserve to be on this list, but someone has to stay on the Bridger Hunt hype train. Still shows good control of the strike zone and can become dangerous if he develops some power.

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Comments

Where will Baez play?

Will Baez play for Ogden this year? If so, I should get a chance to see him.

by daniel on Dec 4, 2007 9:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re

Depends on how high the Dodgers are on him. If they are, they'll start him in Great Lakes so he gets a full season in.

by Andrew on Dec 4, 2007 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Preston Mattingly

Sure does suck.

by Rich on Dec 4, 2007 10:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

My Top 30

This is my ist time posting here. Andrew and ToyCannon you guys do a fantastic job with this site...

1.    Clayton Kershaw
2.    Andy LaRoche
3.    Scott Elbert
4.    James McDonald
5.    Jonathan Meloan
6.    Chin-Lung Hu
7.    Josh Bell
8.    Delwyn Young
9.    Bryan Morris
10.    Ivan DeJesus
11.    Pedro Baez
12.    Blake Dewitt
13.    Chris Withrow
14.    Andrew Lambo
15.    Xavier Paul
16.    Justin Orenduff
17.    Ramon Troncoso
18.    Preston Mattingly
19.    James Adkins
20.    Tim Sexton
21.    Austin Gallagher
22.    Greg Miller
23.    Justin Miller
24.    Wesley Wright
25.    Jamie Ortiz
26.    Steven Johnson
27.    Lucas May
28.    Michael Watt
29.    Jamie Pedroza
30.    Robert Boothe

by nswanson on Dec 4, 2007 11:54 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

RE

Thanks for posting.

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 4, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Top prospects

Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Jonathan Meloan
Chris Withrow
Chin-Lung Hu
Scott Elbert
James McDonald
Ivan DeJesus
Pedro Baez
Bryan Morris
Josh Bell
Blake Dewitt
Delwyn Young
Justin Orenduff

by Statman122 on Dec 4, 2007 1:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Ferraras

also walked 17. He was in the Dominican Rookie League. I don't have enough info in that league to put anyone in the top 30. BA did mention several arms during the chat from there that they liked.
"Carlos Frias and lefties Leoenel Beras and Geison Aguasviva"

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 4, 2007 3:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Here's Mine

Rank    Name
1    Kershaw, Clayton
2    LaRoche, Andy
3    Hu, Chin-Lung
4    Elbert, Scott
5    Mcdonald, James
6    Meloan, Jon
7    Lambo
8    Baez
9    Bell, Joshua
10    DeJesus, Ivan
11    Young, Delwyn
12    DeWitt, Blake
13    Winthrow
14    Morris, Bryan
15    Orenduff, Justin
16    Adkins, James
17    Paul, Xavier
18    Ortiz, Jamie
19    Gallagher
20    Pedroza, Jamie
21    Watt
22    Troncoso, Ramon, RP
23    May, Lucas
24    Johnson, Steve
25    Wade, Cory
26    Silverio
27    Orr, Kyle
28    Santana, Carlos
29    Mattingly, Preston
30    Miller, Greg
HM    Sexton
    Rondon
    Danielson
    Dutton
    Garcia, Yosandy
    Mathews Brian

LaRoche's back keeps me from putting him ahead of Kershaw. Not sure I would even I'd never heard of his back problems.

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 4, 2007 3:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re

I'm pretty sure I'm going to be the only person will put LaRoche number one.

by Andrew on Dec 4, 2007 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Top Prospects

Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Scott Elbert
James McDonald
Jonathan Meloan
Chin-Lung Hu
Josh Bell
Delwyn Young
Chris Withrow
Ivan Dejesus
Greg Miller
Ben Diggins
Bubba Crosby
That guy we drafted in front of Roger Clemens 20 years ago.
Angel Pena (Coincidentally, Pena's ranking equals his weight)

Note: Only 11 of these are real rankings. Can you figure out which ones are?

by Rich on Dec 4, 2007 3:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Where are Kiki Jones, Dan Opperman, Luzinski, and Glenn Davis?

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 4, 2007 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The guy drafted before Clemens in 1983...

Pitcher Erik Sonberg! Perhaps beginning the Dodgers Wichita State curse. :)

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Dec 4, 2007 11:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

top 10

I don't follow the prospects well enough to rank 30 of them, but here's an ill-informed top 10:

Scott Elbert
Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Delwyn Young
Chin-Lung Hu
James McDonald
Jonathan Meloan
Brian Morris
Chris Withrow
Blake DeWitt
Neifi Perez, 'cause I want to see Andrew's head explode.

---- There are a lot of things wrong with a lot of industries...baseball is one of them." - Curt Flood

by librarian on Dec 4, 2007 4:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

30 is too deep

for me to still be drawing distinctions, but here is 15.

Clayton Kershaw
Jonathan Meloan
Andy LaRoche
Chin-Lung Hu
James McDonald
Chris Withrow
Scott Elbert
Ivan Dejesus
Pedro Baez
Bryan Morris
Justin Orenduff
Delwyn Young
Josh Bell
Blake Dewitt
Wesley Wright

by Paul Scott on Dec 4, 2007 5:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

my top 20

LHP Clayton Kershaw
3b Andy Laroche
RHP James McDonald
SS Chin-Lung Hu
RHP Jon Meloan
LHP Scott Elbert
3b Blake Dewitt
RHP Chris Withrow
OF Andrew Lambo
SS Ivan DeJesus
OF Delwyn Young
3b Pedro Baez
3b Josh Bell
LHP James Adkins
RHP Bryan Morris
OF Xavier Paul
3b Austin Gallagher
RHP Tim Sexton
LHP Michael Watt
RHP Kyle Smit

by npurcell on Dec 4, 2007 6:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Top 25

Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
James McDonald
Scott Elbert
Jon Meloan
Chin Lung Hu
Andrew Lambo
Delwyn Young
Josh Bell
Ivan DeJesus
Chris Withrow
Blake Dewitt
Pedro Baez
Bryan Morris
Xavier Paul
Austin Gallangher
Jaime Ortiz
Justin Orenduff
Steve Johnson
Tim Sexton
James Adkins
Kyle Smit
Alfredo Silverio
Greg Miller
Luis Ferraras

by dodgergabe26 on Dec 4, 2007 8:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Top 20 Prospects

Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
James McDonald
Scott Elbert
Chin-Lung Hu
Jonathan Meloan
Pedro Baez
Blake Dewitt
Josh Bell
Chris Withrow
Andrew Lambo
Byron Morris
Delwyn Young
Ivan DeJesus, Jr.
Austin Gallagher
Justin Orenduff
James Adkins
Xavier Paul
Alfredo Silverio
Kyle Smit

by bhsportsguy on Dec 5, 2007 12:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

My 15

Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
James McDonald
Scott Elbert
Chin Lung Hu
Jon Meloan
Ivan Dejesus
Blake Dewitt
Andrew Lambo
Chris Withrow
Delwyn Young
Pedro Baez
Josh Bell
James Adkins
Eric Hull

I don't follow the prospects too carefully, but I did have fun putting this together. And I appreciate all the prospect information on this site.

I know Hull is old enough that he probably won't get any better, but his 2008 ZiPS ERA is 4.00. I think the pretty good chance of him doing that for a couple years is more valuable than a lot of these guys. I'd be happy to have someone convince me otherwise though.

by dan310 on Dec 5, 2007 12:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

My New Top 30 Prospects

I have made a few changes to my Top 30, in light of new information from Baseball America's Alan Matthews. Also, I have removed LHP Wesley Wright from my list, simply because I think he will be taken from the Dodgers in the Rule 5 draft on Thursday. If Wright is NOT taken on Thursday, slot him in at #19, and move everybody on the list from #19 down downward one slot.

(01). Clayton Kershaw, LHP
(02). Andy LaRoche, 3B
(03). Chin-Lung Hu, SS
(04). James McDonald, RHP
(05). Jonathan Meloan, RHP
(06). Blake DeWitt, 3B
(07). Josh Bell, 3B
(08). Ivan DeJesus,Jr., SS
(09). Chris Withrow, RHP
(10). Scott Elbert, LHP
(11). Bryan Morris, RHP
(12). Andrew Lambo, 1B/OF
(13). Delwyn Young, OF
(14). Pedro Baez, 3B
(15). Ramon Troncoso, RHP
(16). Xavier Paul, OF
(17). Justin Orenduff, RHP
(18). Greg Miller, LHP
(19). Michael Watt, LHP
(20). Austin Gallagher, 3B
(21). Josh Wall, RHP
(22). Kyle Smit, RHP
(23). James Adkins, LHP
(24). Lucas May, C
(25). Preston Mattingly, 2B
(26). Steven Johnson, RHP
(27). Jaime Ortiz, 1B
(28). Jesus Rodriguez, RHP
(29). Cory Wade, RHP
(30). Cody White, LHP

by CanuckDodger on Dec 5, 2007 6:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re

I'm totally shocked I have almost all the same guys as you do.

by Andrew on Dec 5, 2007 9:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Why no love at all for Jamie Pedroza? At worse he ends up a 2nd baseman.

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 5, 2007 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re

I had him at 32, personally. 20 year olds in the rookie league don't get a whole lot of credit.

by Andrew on Dec 5, 2007 10:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

I guess, but 20 year old middle infielders who destroy a rookie league get my attention. Were not talking Vitters here. Will be curious if he jumps to HighA or moves to low A.

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 5, 2007 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Pedroza

ToyCannon, do you remember asking the BA writer who handled the Pioneer League Top 20 list about Pedroza, and do you remember his answer? I'll add that anybody who hits well in Ogden better be younger than 20, or even younger than 19, for me to care at all. And it's not like Pedroza was drafted high enough for me to think "The scouts must really believe in his tools, so I'll trust them."

If you want a late-round college player on that Ogden team to root for, how about RHP Bobby Blevins? He was 22, so that limits his upside, but still, as a starter, 48.2 IP, 4 BB's, 42 K's, 2.59 ERA, in a huge hitter's league and with a better-than-average-for-league hitter's home park? Color me impressed. 88-91 MPH fastball, good slider, gets a decent number of groundballs. I would have him in the Inland Empire rotation next year to see what more he can do, but that rotation looks full already. In our pitcher-rich system, Blevins will probably be relegated to the bullpen, but in a few years he might make the 40-man roster as a Cory Wade-type reliever prospect, if he continues to perform like he did in Ogden. Heck, he might not be that different than Justin Orenduff right now, with one key difference (in Blevins' favor) being that while Orenduff is a big flyball pitcher Blevins is a groundball guy.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 5, 2007 4:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I remember the answer. The part I didn't understand is that he said Pedroza would not be able to stay on the left side of the infield and that effects his value. I don't see how moving to 2nd base would change anything given the lack of offensive 2nd baseman.
Deric from HQ was impressed with Pedroza and said his Rookie season was a pleasant surprise. I'm not saying he's a top prospect but I did think he warranted enough to make the back end of a top 30 list. The Dodgers jumped him from Rookie league to High A to play in the playoffs when Dejesus got hurt. They didn't have to use him, they could have used Lizarraga, Francisco from Low A.
I did notice Blevins and the numbers were nice but I didn't know anything about him.

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 5, 2007 5:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Top 20

Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
James McDonald
Chin-Lung Hu
Jonathan Meloan
Scott Elbert
Chris Withrow
Delwyn Young
Josh Bell
Pedro Baez
Andrew Lambo
Ivan DeJesus
Blake DeWitt
Bryan Morris
James Adkins
Preston Mattingly
Xavier Paul
Austin Gallagher
Greg Miller
Cory Wade

by JudenSmithFan on Dec 5, 2007 10:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

??Donde esta?

Do we still have Alberto Bastardo?

by LGBWC on Dec 5, 2007 2:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re

I had him at 31.

by Andrew on Dec 5, 2007 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

He was 30 on my original list.

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 5, 2007 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mario Alveraz

I don't see him on anyone's list. I've asked about him from both Deric and Mathews and they both were clueless why he is on our 40 man roster.

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 5, 2007 5:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

TOP 30 Dodger Prospects

1 Andy LaRoche
2 Clayton Kershaw
3 Scott Elbert
4 Jim McDonald
5 Chin-lung Hu
6 Jon Meloan
7 Chris Withrow
8 Andy Lambo
9 Delwyn Young
10 Jaime Pedroza
11 Ivan DeJesus
12 Austin Gallagher
13 Justin Orenduff
14 Xavier Paul
15 Pedro Baez
16 Pedro Guerrero
17 Tim Sexton
18 James Atkins
19 Blake DeWitt
20 Mike Watt
21 Dan Danielson
22 Josh Wall
23 Westley Wright
24 Josh Bell
25 Alfredo Sliverio
26 Kyle Smit
27 Jesus Rodriguez
28 Wilfredo Diaz
29 Javy Guerra
30 Kenley Jansen

by mjw101 on Dec 5, 2007 6:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs