Welcome to the NL Mr. Santana

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 30, 2008 7:49 AM PST in News Comment 3 comments

The Mets just made a great great trade but this was a team who needed Santana more then anyone. Other then the fact they have the best left side of the infield in baseball and a great centerfielder they don't bring much else to the table. Delgado is way past his prime and a liability at 1st base. Castillo has also seen his best days and they weren't that good to begin with once his speed deserted him. Catching is Schneider and Castro. Beltran is surrounded by a brittle and declining Alou and Ryan Church. Yikes

So they needed help at 1st, 2nd, LF, RF, C and they went out and got the best pitcher in baseball. Santana should excel in Shea which is the best strikeout park in baseball but according to Nate Silver we aren't looking at huge improvement. They still only have a rotation of a gimpy Pedro, an inconsistent Oliver Perez, the oldest Hernandez, and a ship that will sink just like it did in 1898.

So yeah, the Mets just got better, did they get better enough to scare Dodger fans? Not this one.

On the plus side it is great to finally see a great player move into the NL instead of moving out of the NL.

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Santanadana

Looking at some of the 2007 park factors numbers, the following sticks out.

At Shea stadium LHP tend to...
Link

Give up more homeruns
Strikeout less batters
Walk less batters
HR and SO trends are reversed for a RHP

At the Metrodome, LHP tend to...
Link

Give up less home runs
Strikeout more batters
Walk less batters

So if you can believe and put trust in these numbers, Santana is going from an environment where he strikes out more batters due to park effects to an environment where he will strike out less batters. And an environment where he gives up less homeruns to an environment where he gives up more homeruns.

vr, Xei

DodgerSims:
NL West Winter Rankings

by xeifrank on Jan 30, 2008 10:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

This seems problematic.

Points 2 and 3 cannot be determined by park factors, albeit mildly indirectly (e.g. foul territory being a small cause). However, any trends will be almost entirely coincidental, and if Santana continues this trend, it will also be entirely coincidental. Unless, of course, I'm missing something. Maybe perhaps wind factor, which might explain less K's, but would not explain less walks. Any thoughts?

by Rich on Jan 30, 2008 3:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

foul territory

I am thinking it's foul territory. With less foul territory you will have more foul balls going out of play that could've been caught, and the pitcher will throw more pitches which will lead to deeper counts, which will lead to more walks and perhaps more strikeouts. There also could be some problems with shadows and hitting backdrops which could affect strikeouts too. Not 100% sure, but those would be my guesses.
vr, Xei

DodgerSims:
NL West Winter Rankings

by xeifrank on Jan 30, 2008 10:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs