Mannywood 2009?
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 28, 2008 1:58 PM PST
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PrintEric Stephen has posted the case for signing Manny.
Phil Gurnee has posted the case against signing Manny.
Jose Mota has the latest scoop on Andruw Jones as he tries to revive his career.
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re:
Regarding your comments on Sheets and losing our number one pick. Since our pick is only a 17, I’d rather have Sheets then the number one pick. If it was a top 10 pick I could understand wanting to save it. Many players I would not want to give up our number one for, but Sheets is not one of them.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
re:
I’d want to see how healthy Sheets is before the Dodgers sniff around him. He might be a top 25 pitcher when healthy, but he’s rarely is healthy. Those first round picks are valuable, especially when we can’t acquire another one since Manny and Lowe won’t net us a first rounder.
Give me Manny or give me Death!!!
Seriously though, Dunn isn’t too much of an upgrade over Pierre. If we couldn’t get Manny I’d rather just use the money on SP. Sheets and Pettitte would look nice in our rotation.
by Brendan Scolari on Dec 28, 2008 6:08 PM PST reply actions
No, no he isn't.
Dunn is way more valuable than Pierre as a hitter. He’s only way better than Pierre as a player if you disregard defense. Including defense Dunn is only an above average player, not a star. Here’s Pierre, Dunn, and Manny’s value in wins over replacement over the last 4 years (2005-2008) according to Fangraphs:
Pierre:
2.3
3.7
2.6
0.6
Total: 9.2
Dunn:
2.7
2.0
3.1
1.9
Total: 9.7
Manny:
3.2
3.9
1.2
6.5
Total: 14.8
A 2 win player is around average, 4 wins is an allstar, 6 wins or higher is an MVP candidate. The problem with Dunn is he gives back almost all the runs he produces with his bat in the field, while Pierre is a plus fielder. Dunn also is the type of player who tends to age very poorly. I think realistically we can expect Dunn to be worth around 1 more win than Pierre, while Manny is worth 2.5-3. While I wouldn’t be opposed to a cheap one-year deal for Dunn, I think the actual contract he receives will not be worth it for the Dodgers because he is not a huge upgrade over Pierre, despite how much Pierre annoys us all.
Spend the money on starting pitchers, where you are likely replacing replacement level innings for much of the time, meaning Pettite/Sheets could be 2 win upgrades each. They could therefore be possibly worth double the value of Dunn at a similiar price.
Dunn is just not a worthwhile risk given our teams current situation in my opinion.
by Brendan Scolari on Dec 29, 2008 2:15 AM PST up reply actions
To clarify
I am not endorsing signing Manny at all costs. The maximum contract I would propose is 3/60 with a team option, and thats only if other teams force the Dodgers to go 3 years. If it takes 3/75, I think you have to bite the bullet and let Manny walk and go with Pierre in left. This allows us to go after more starting pitching, and prevents his contract from hamstringing us. But othewise I would try to get the smallest deal possible from Manny, because I feel he will hold back his displeasure on a short deal in order to increase his earnings potential on his next contract. I think he knows his behavior has cost him money this offseason.
by Brendan Scolari on Dec 29, 2008 2:25 AM PST up reply actions
re:
For ages 33-36 he’s been one of the best. At the price we are going to pay him, he will need to keep up that production. I expect to see more of 2007 going forward then the others. That is still a solid year but it is not worth 25 Million for a defensively challenged left fielder.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Manny won't get $25m
I think Manny’s final deal will be right around the 3/60 range. $20m per year is still steep, but it’s not $25m.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Dec 28, 2008 8:22 PM PST up reply actions
re:
If we get him that cheap he won’t be happy.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I don't buy it
1) If Manny signs for 3/60, he adds a $20m guarantee to the $40m in options he insisted would be given up
2) If Manny is as “unhappy” as he was in Boston, I’ll take that production.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Dec 28, 2008 8:46 PM PST up reply actions
We need to get Manny.
With Tex going to New York and the Angels claiming that they are not pursuing Manny, we should be able to get him. Him and Boras might eventually get frustrated as the market fails to develop for Manny and they might have to come crying back to us to give them that 2 year, 45 million dollar offer that they initially thought was a joke. Hell, we might be able to get him for less than that now.
by Chzburger Jones on Dec 28, 2008 7:45 PM PST reply actions
Re:
Don’t count on it, I still don’t see him signing for anything less then 3 years.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
he might
want to sign for 1 year with a player option for a second to increase his stock and sign one last contract.
re:
Wouldn’t he have taken arbitration if he was willing to go one year.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
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