Comparing Pecota
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 25, 2008 8:52 AM PST
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PrintWith permission from Nate Silver the author of Pecota, below are the Baseball Prospectus Pecota projections. This gives us something to compare Eric's community projections against. Pecota doesn't understand when a player plays hurt all season like Furcal did, so to the algrorithm it looks like Furcal is in decline. I would fully expect a healthy Rafy to post a superior slug % then the Pecota projection. I've sorted by descending WARP.
Readers of this site might be familiar with the unique statistics of Baseball Prospectus but if not here are the glossary links.
EQA
VORP
WXRL
A VORP over 30 is very good but remember it does not take into account defense.
| Pecota Hitting Projections |
| PLAYER | POS | AGE | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | EQA | VORP | WARP |
| Martin, Russell | C | 25 | 0.284 | 0.37 | 0.439 | 0.809 | 0.28 | 31.2 | 6 |
| Furcal, Rafael | SS | 30 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.389 | 0.739 | 0.262 | 24.6 | 5.8 |
| Jones, Andruw | CF | 31 | 0.256 | 0.344 | 0.486 | 0.83 | 0.278 | 30.5 | 5.1 |
| Kent, Jeff | 2B | 40 | 0.287 | 0.368 | 0.493 | 0.861 | 0.289 | 33.3 | 4.7 |
| Kemp, Matthew | CF | 23 | 0.296 | 0.349 | 0.505 | 0.854 | 0.287 | 30.2 | 4.5 |
| Laroche, Andy | 3B | 24 | 0.28 | 0.364 | 0.485 | 0.849 | 0.286 | 22.9 | 3.8 |
| Ethier, Andre | LF | 26 | 0.286 | 0.354 | 0.453 | 0.807 | 0.274 | 18.2 | 3.6 |
| Loney, James | 1B | 24 | 0.29 | 0.353 | 0.461 | 0.814 | 0.275 | 19.5 | 3.4 |
| Pierre, Juan | CF | 30 | 0.29 | 0.332 | 0.357 | 0.689 | 0.247 | 6.6 | 2.2 |
| Garciaparra, Nomar | 1B | 34 | 0.283 | 0.337 | 0.411 | 0.748 | 0.256 | 8.9 | 1.6 |
| Abreu, Etanislao | 2B | 23 | 0.279 | 0.326 | 0.408 | 0.734 | 0.251 | 5.6 | 1.5 |
| Hu, Chin-Lung | SS | 24 | 0.274 | 0.319 | 0.403 | 0.722 | 0.247 | 4.1 | 1.1 |
| Young, Delwyn | LF | 26 | 0.268 | 0.318 | 0.451 | 0.77 | 0.258 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Pecota Pitching Projections |
| PLAYER | AGE | ERA | WHIP | VORP | WXRL | WARP |
| Saito, Takashi | 38 | 2.99 | 1.18 | 19.5 | 3.01 | 5.8 |
| Billingsley, Chad | 23 | 3.96 | 1.38 | 26.5 | 3.72 | 4.1 |
| Kuroda, Hiroki | 33 | 4.12 | 1.32 | 24.8 | 3.97 | 3.9 |
| Penny, Brad | 30 | 4.29 | 1.42 | 22.9 | 3.73 | 3.8 |
| Lowe, Derek | 35 | 4.12 | 1.37 | 22.2 | 3.75 | 3.6 |
| Broxton, Jonathan | 24 | 2.95 | 1.2 | 23.6 | 2.12 | 3.3 |
| Schmidt, Jason | 35 | 4.57 | 1.43 | 11.2 | 1.56 | 2.1 |
| Kuo, Hong-Chih | 26 | 4.28 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 1.11 | 1.8 |
| Hull, Eric | 28 | 4.09 | 1.45 | 8.8 | 0.97 | 1.6 |
| Meloan, Jonathan | 23 | 4.25 | 1.45 | 8 | 0.88 | 1.6 |
| Loaiza, Esteban | 36 | 4.72 | 1.44 | 6.8 | 1.05 | 1.4 |
| Proctor, Scott | 31 | 4.48 | 1.42 | 7.4 | 0.62 | 1.3 |
| Beimel, Joe | 31 | 4.3 | 1.48 | 6.3 | 0.57 | 1.1 |
| Seanez, Rudy | 39 | 4.31 | 1.38 | 5.9 | 0.53 | 1.1 |
| Brazoban, Yhency | 28 | 4.23 | 1.37 | 5.6 | 0.53 | 1 |
| Myers, Mike | 39 | 3.82 | 1.39 | 5.8 | 0.53 | 0.9 |
| Martin, Tom | 38 | 4.75 | 1.53 | 1.6 | 0.12 | 0.4 |
| McDonald, James | 23 | 5.48 | 1.54 | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0.2 |
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Unit
What units are the following categories in?
VORP
WARP
WXRL
The WARP columns add up to 82.6, so this looks like straight wins, not wins over replacement.
Thanks.
vr, Xei
NL West WAR Breakdown
by xeifrank @ True Blue LA on Feb 25, 2008 12:18 PM PST reply actions
Re;
Re:
vr, Xei
NL West WAR Breakdown
by xeifrank @ True Blue LA on Feb 25, 2008 1:48 PM PST reply actions
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