Hey, I write for http://baseballmastermind.com.  Today, I covered the LA Dodger and the Cincinnati Reds in my season preview as the leading darkhorse teams in the NL.  Here's the article in its entirety:

The National League, unlike the America league, lacks the superpower teams that are almost locks to make the playoffs beyond the New York Mets. After that, there are conceivably nine or ten teams vying for the final three spots. I doubt the San Diego Padres will be able to compete and it will take a lot going wrong for the Houston Astros to win the NL Central, leaving eight real, legitimate contenders.

Of those eight, the NL West will see major competition between the Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers; the NL Central will likely see competition between the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds; and finally, from the NL East, barring something unforeseen happening to the Mets, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves will compete with all the best losers for the Wild Card.

I was originally going to write this darkhorse article on the Reds and the Braves, who I saw as fringe competitors, where the Braves finished third and the Reds finished fifth in their respective divisions, but after consulting the futures odds at Vegas Insider, I thought I needed to sub in the Dodgers for the Braves as they are currently listed as 22/1 favorites to win the World Series and the Reds are listed as 55/1 favorites. The Braves are listed as 16/1, not bad, but I have the Dodgers as the #3 team in the NL, so this represents quite a gap between the talent I am confident they have and the betting public.

So without further ado, I will kick-off my preseason preview series with the two biggest "darkhorse" teams in the NL, the Reds and the Dodgers:

The Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were competitive for most of 2007, even leading their division for much of the season, before fading down the stretch and finishing in fourth in the NL West with a 82-80 record. Their Pythagorean record was 82-80 as well, so there isn't much luck or lack of luck figuring into their finish. Last season's team could pitch alright and couldn't hit a lick and their record reflected such. This off-season, the Dodgers changed managers, exchanging Grady Little for Joe Torre and made two major player acquisitions, signing Japanese RHP Hiroki Kuroda and CF-R Andruw Jones. I covered both the Kuroda and Jones signings in more detail this past off-season, so I won't rehash either transaction too much.

Strengths

   1. A lot of young talent. One of the big story-lines at the end of the 2007 season was the feud between the older players like Nomar Garciaparra, Luis Gonzalez, Derek Lowe and Jeff Kent and the younger players like Matt Kemp and Russell Martin. All of that was preposterous and blown out of proportion and will hopefully be behind the Dodgers because coming into 2008, the Dodgers expect to get major contributions from Martin, Kemp, James Loney, Andy LaRoche and Chad Billingsley (a major breakout candidate in 2008), all 25 and under. Projecting some of these players like Loney, Kemp and LaRoche is somewhat difficult, but you can't deny the talent there.

   2. All-Around Depth. One of the great things about having one of the best farm systems in the MLB is that it provides teams with great depth. The Dodgers have the best all-around depth in the NL. If any of their starting pitching goes down, they have Esteban Loiza, Hong-Chih Kuo, James McDonald and Scott Elbert ready to go and if all else fails, super-stud prospect Clayton Kershaw may even get a chance. In the infield, the Dodgers have both Chin-Lung Hu and Tony Abreu ready to contribute and in the outfield, Ethier will be waiting for a chance to play regularly, along with Delwyn Young. That's an impressive collection of talent that will be able to sustain the inevitable injury or two, particularly in the rotation, which is crucial for a long season. Injuries will happen and the Dodgers are prepared.

Weaknesses

1. Occasional lapses in judgment. Last season, the Dodgers misguidedly gave Garciaparra 431 at-bats to prove he couldn't hit. Same was true of Luis Gonzalez (now gone), who racked up 464 at-bats. This season, Andy LaRoche is ready to go, but every start that Nomar gets at third is a step away from the play-offs. The same is true of Juan Pierre. With his contract, he will play and he will start, but if the Dodgers somehow manage to get more time to Kemp and Ethier, they will benefit greatly.

X-Factor

   1. Kemp and Loney. Both of those guys had monster 2007 seasons, albeit in limited time. How they will hold up under a full season has yet to be seen. If Loney manages to hit around 15 home runs and Kemp on-bases less than .330, the Dodgers will be in trouble.

   2. Russell Martin. This is the only place on the team where the Dodgers are completely vulnerable. If Martin gets hurt, their already delicate offense will head south in a hurry. How Torre manages Martin will be closely monitored.

Out-There Predictions

   1. Closer Takashi Saito, after dominating big-league hitters for two seasons, better than he ever did in Japan, will finally fall off the face of the earth at age 38 (and by that, I mean he will have a 3.60 ERA), but big Johnathan Broxton will step in to close and no one will notice.

   2. Nomar Garciaparra will demand a trade after being relegated to a bench role. The Dodgers will try to oblige, but no one will return their phone calls.

2008 Outlook: I think the Dodgers have as good a chance of winning their division as the Diamondbacks, although officially, I'm picking the Diamondbacks to win the division. I will go ahead and put the Dodgers down for 90 wins.

-----------------------------

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have the opportunity in 2008 to capitalize on a relatively weak division. Last season, the Cubs won the NL Central with 85 wins. The year before, the Cardinals won the division and the World series with 83 regular season wins. With contributions from a core of young talented players on the cusp, a little luck (maybe an injury or two to the Cubs or Brewers), the Reds will be in the hunt.

Strengths

   1. Prospects galore. Like the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2007, the Reds have a great deal of young players ready to contribute. Man-child Jay Bruce (BP's #1 prospect), Homer Bailey (#9), Joey Votto (#21), Johnny Cueto (#41) are all ready to go.

   2. Underrated Rotation. The Reds have the front end of the rotation well covered between Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo who are both underrated in large part due to the ballpark they pitch in. Harang has two consecutive 200 strikeout seasons in over 230 innings, with about a 4:1 K/BB ratio-those are dominating numbers. Same goes for Arroyo who has posted close to a 3:1 K/BB ratio these past two seasons, exceeding 210 innings each season. Beyond that, if newly acquired Edison Voquez, Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto can provide meaningful innings, this rotation may win up every bit as good as the Cubs and better than the Brewers.

Weaknesses

   1. Defense. The Colorado Rockies demonstrated in 2007 that with a good defensive team, even in the lousiest ballpark, a team can thrive. The Reds pitching staff is solid, but their defense is poor. In the outfield, Adam Dunn will be a butcher and Bruce and Ken Griffey Jr. are average at their positions at best. Edwin Encarnacion is a horrific defender at third and rookie Joey Votto figures to be about average. Their middle infield is their only plus.

   2. Volatile bullpen. While the Francisco Cordero signing was bashed a lot this off-season for the duration and dollar value, it does make the Reds better in 2008. Cordero is a power pitcher-fastball slider combo-with decent control and he has demonstrated he can succeed in a tough ballpark when he was closing in Texas. Regardless, in Great American Ballpark, the rest of the bullpen is very vulnerable and we wouldn't count on David Weathers, Bill Bray or Todd Coffey to hold up for a full season.

X-Factor

   1. Young Guns. Baseball Prospectus's projection system PECOTA projects Jay Bruce for a massive season, .269/.336/.512 with 29 home runs and 45 doubles with a-get this-47% breakout rate. That basically means there's a chance he will exceed those numbers by a lot-you'd don't even want to know how ridiculous his 90% projection is. I like Jay Bruce, but I don't like him that much. I was very confident in Alex Gordon in 2007 and he collapsed. Sometimes young players excel right off the bat and sometimes they don't. The Reds are counting on performance from these guys.

   2. Dusty Baker. The injury-plagued careers of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior will be a sore spot in Cubs fans for years to come. How Baker manages his young rotation is going to be important. Also, the man famous for saying a player enters their prime around 35-36 is going to have to resist his temptation to play Scott Hatteberg over Joey Votto.

Out-There Predictions:

   1. Jay Bruce does not win the NL Rookie of the Year award. That's bold.

   2. Aaron Harang will hit .110. All the reports out of camp are that Harang has learned to hit lefty and is showing Dunn-like power now. I jest.

2008 Outlook: I certainly wouldn't pick the Reds to win their division, but I like their chances all the same. I predict 79 wins and a third place finish.