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Do As Ned Does, Not As He Says

Ned Colletti on Juan Pierre:

"With his speed, he can ignite a lineup when the hitters behind him are above-average run producers," Colletti said. "I believe if we have three or four players with 90-plus RBIs and Juan does what Juan always does, he can score 125 runs and steal 60-plus bases with 200-plus hits. That is a very good complementary piece to a good club."

Now, this is a very inaccurate statement. One of the big false justifications for Pierre's existence is that his speed allows him to score more runs than the average leadoff hitter. Last year, Pierre primarily spent his time hitting first and second and scored 96 runs. The average leadoff hitter scored 110.56 runs and the average number two hitter scored 104.4 runs.  In 2006, Pierre hit in the leadoff spot for all but three games and scored 87 runs. The average leadoff hitter scored 109.1 runs in 2006. Pierre might score more runs than Frank Thomas if Frank Thomas had Pierre's on base percentage, but he still offers below average production.

Wrongness aside, I don't take this as any real endorsement of Juan Pierre. It's Ned Colletti's job to justify the biggest contract he ever handed out. He's not going to tell the press "yeah, Pierre does kind of suck, doesn't he? My bad." It's in Colletti's best interest to hype up Pierre both to make himself look good and to keep whatever little value Pierre has in a trade intact. What I think tells us the most about how Colletti feels about Pierre is the signing of Andruw Jones. Colletti realized that having Pierre as the full time center fielder wasn't going to work out, so he brought in Jones to replace him and make the lineup more productive. Colletti will continue to praise Pierre like he was Gandhi after the Salt March, but there mere fact that there's a debate over Pierre's playing time tells me that Ned did learn from his mistake.

I suppose the real answer will come when we look at Juan Pierre's plate appearances this year. If it's still in the 600s, then yes some combination of Ned Colletti and Joe Torre believe that either Juan Pierre is the way to victory, or Juan Pierre is owed so much money that we have to play him. If it happens then I guess we have an easy scapegoat if we miss the playoffs by one or two games. Either way, we win.

-----------------------

Hong Chih Kuo has tightness in his arm yet again. Sad, but very predictable.

----------------------

Update [2008-3-5 11:38:27 by Andrew]:Tony Jackson insists that Joe Torre has already made up his mind and Juan Pierre is the regular left fielder. This isn't really news, I figured Pierre would get the majority of the at bats, it's just a question of if he starts 162 games or 120.

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A Scenario
Where we miss the playoffs but can blame it on Juan Pierre can only be described as a Pyrrhic victory, at best.

by Rich @ True Blue LA on Mar 4, 2008 12:40 PM PST reply actions  

Here I go..
Okay let me first say that I am fantasy BIASED.  I plan on keeping Matt Kemp in my fantasy baseball league because of his immense upside potential.  This upside potential would be crushed by whatever platoon situation seems to be meandering through Joey and Ned's minds.

Can most of us agree that Andruw Jones and Matt Kemp are likely their two top outfielders? (or am I assuming too much?)

with that assumption, what would be the Pros for Ethier and Pierre?

Pros for Ethier
That being said, Ethier has a better arm than Pierre, he hits better, his OBP should be MUCH better. He has some pop in his bat (considering last year's inability to do that, it's a nice option)

Pros for Pierre
He's fast when he gets on base.  His salary is high (not sure that's a pro, but it tends to make him more startable in GMs eyes)

I'm all for a trade of Pierre to Oakland for Blanton.  The Dodgers would probably have to eat a significant portion of Pierre's contract to do that though.

by RoscoeP on Mar 4, 2008 9:58 PM PST reply actions  

Pierre for Blanton?
The Dodgers would have to do more than just eat most (or all) of his entire contract.  Given that Pierre is absolutely terrible, it would make no sense for the A's to trade Blanton for Pierre given that Blanton is actually good at baseball.  It's not like this is a good player in a salary dump trade.  It's a terrible player in a salary dump trade, which means if we actually tried to trade Pierre for somebody good, we'd probably be giving up LaRoche, too.

by Rich @ True Blue LA on Mar 5, 2008 7:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Re
Rich pretty much covered it. I wouldn't trade Blanton for Pierre if their salaries matched, Blanton is a decent pitcher (albeit one that will probably follow the Odalis Perez career track) while Pierre is a below average centerfielder whose arm cancels out most of the defensive value he has and he can't hit. If it was Pierre to Oakland it would be something like Pierre and 28 million for Jeff Fiorentino.

Tony Jackson implied that the battle was between Ethier and Kemp in his last blog post, but that's Tony Jackson.

by Andrew on Mar 5, 2008 8:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Now
Plaschke is jumping on the Pierre bandwagon.  This is ridiculous.

by Rich @ True Blue LA on Mar 5, 2008 12:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Plaschke
I almost think that Plaschke throws stuff out there to see what sticks.

Do you get the feeling that the Dodgers paid him to write this article to see what fan reaction would be?

Just a thought

by RoscoeP on Mar 5, 2008 8:44 PM PST reply actions  

DODGER HISTORY
....

teams like the DODGERS, which have traditionally been built on speed have always relied on fast, disruptive players at the top of their lineups which steal bases, score runs, and make life for opposing pitchers hell......a single or walk followed by a stolen base is much more disruptive than a double down the line to a pitcher's psyche...and can be magnified in late inning situations or with men or 3rd, etc...also helps the batters behind the basestealer by disrupting the pitchers focus

these players, by their very nature of being fleet of foot, are almost exclusivley slap or line drive hitter, adept bunters, and virtually without power....they are almost always hitting at the top of the lineup, with little or no RBI chances, and they're not depended on for HR or RBI as the team tablesetters

the Dodgers themselves have long depended on speed rather than power ....see the examples of these former Dodger players (minimum 200 steals lifetime) ...... (with lifetime batting avg. / OBP / total lifetime steals in parentheses ):

Brett Butler (.290/.377/558)
Pee Wee Reese (.269/.361/232)
Steve Sax (.281/335/444)
Davey Lopes (.263/.349/557)
Jim Gilliam (.265/.358/203)
Willie Davis (.279/.311/398)
Zach Wheat (.317/.361/205)
Dave Roberts (.268/.342/238)
Delino Deshields (.268/.352/463)
Eric Young (.283/.359/465)

and the ultimate leadoff hitter

Maury Wills (.281/.330/586)

all of the players listed above, while some didn't play all of their careers with the Dodgers, were all considered valuable members of the team (some more than others)

so, Juan Pierre...

last 7 seasons, averages 200 hits, 100 runs, 55 stolen bases, and is a lifetime .301 hitter

his career numbers as compared to the players above :

(.301/.348/389)

only hall of famer wheat hit for higher average (pierre has only one season under .287), and the only guy who really stood out on that entire list was Butler for his high OBP )

everyone except kemp, martin, loney, and the pitchers sans Schmidt had a lousy year last year, and pierres #'s were down accordingly....

however, it would be nice, if everyone could just GET BEHIND THE TEAM, and stop griping and throwing negative energy around

Ethier is never going to much more than a 20+ HR guy, if that, and he has no speed to speak of....he can hit for average, so can Pierre....arm strength won't be as big of issue in left, and pierre isn't a bad fielder

his career numbers shows he fits the perfect mold of the prototypical leadoff hitter except possibly for today's steroid inflated images of what leadoff hitters should be with a bunch of power, ala Soriano, Sizemore, etc...

you guys rag on Pierre, when he really fits the mold and the system employed by many teams, but especially the Dodgers since the move west...

don't hate the player, hate the system if you must

but then you're left with some Billy beane sabermetic lineup with some waterbuffalo like Brad Wilkerson or Kevin Youklis hitting leadoff, just because they can draw a walk ( and then get doubled up by the first grounder to shortstop)

you guys are all complaining : "If the Dodgers miss the playoffs by one game, we can all blame the unholy trinity of pierre to torre to chance (er, colletti)"

so, WHEN WE MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, WITH PIERRE, are you guys gonna give the credit deserved or stubbornly stick to the broken squirt gun reply "they would've won by more if Pierre wasn't playing"

you won't find a harder worker, lesser complainer or better teammate than Juan Pierre...

give the guy a break  ;- 0

on anothe note,this year could be the 20 year renunion title..

a good omen sign :

my brother just picked out a new chocolate lab for he and his girlfriend...

the name :

"Gibson"    ;- ))))))

peace to all, and thank to all

....

by craigsports on Mar 6, 2008 12:31 AM PST reply actions  

What?
If you used these arguments in a philosophy paper, and then gave it to me, I would've given it 9 F's.

First, Zach Wheat played in the Dead Ball Era, so this comparison isn't exactly a good one.  Second, Eric Young only played about 2 1/2 seasons with the Dodgers.  And I don't care that you prefaced it with "Some of these guys didn't play all their career blah blah blah" but "were considered important"  First, that's subjective.  I mean, was Eric Young really that important?  Second, you're simply prefacing your argument in such a way so you can include as many arbitrary players as possible to point out that Juan Pierre was better than all of them.  This ends up actually hurting your argument, since Juan Pierre is worse than all of them, with the exception of Delino DeShields.

"200 hits, 100 runs, 55 stolen bases, and is a lifetime .301 hitter"

200 hits?  He also averages about 400 outs a year.  Pierre makes more outs than anybody else.  And 200 hits isn't a big deal when you play everyday and bat leadoff.  Pierre routinely gets ~650 ABs a season, so I don't find it too surprising that he gets 200 hits a season.  If you gave Pujols as many ABs a season, he'd be getting 200 hits a season.  

"only hall of famer wheat hit for higher average (pierre has only one season under .287), and the only guy who really stood out on that entire list was Butler for his high OBP )"

These are the worst arguments because they always imply, whether intentionally or not, that player X should be in the Hall of Fame because his stats (which are always insanely cherry-picked and that's before taking into account he's ignoring historical context), are comparable to or better than player Y.  Of course, this poster is simply pointing out (wrongly) that Juan Pierre is better than every other player he mentioned.  I mean, are you seriously going to sit here and tell me that Juan Pierre is better than Brett Butler, Steve Sax, Maury Wills, and Pee Wee Reese?!  I'm not even talking about better overall players, I'm talking about better hitters.  He's not.  And it's absurd to claim as much.

If you want to be more fair to the players you're comparing, use WARP3.  That takes into account defense, offense, and historical context.  

"everyone except kemp, martin, loney, and the pitchers sans Schmidt had a lousy year last year, and pierres #'s were down accordingly...."

What??!!!!  First, you pretty much mentioned half the team as having decent seasons.  Second, Jeff Kent had a decent season last year.  Third, and most importantly, what does Nomar tanking and Gonzalez playing bad have anything to do with Pierre playing bad??!!!!  Correlation does definitely not imply causation here.  And if you're just trying to excuse Pierre for playing badly because the 'rest' of the team did, that doesn't mean anything.  He still had a mediocre season and should still not be starting over Ethier.  That's like having Babe Ruth on the bench, but not starting him over Player X because Players Y and Z played bad, too so Player X should be given another chance.  Whatever.

"Ethier is never going to much more than a 20+ HR guy, if that, and he has no speed to speak of....he can hit for average, so can Pierre....arm strength won't be as big of issue in left, and pierre isn't a bad fielder"

And this is all worth more than Pierre.  And Pierre's defense is bad.  People who analyze baseball for a living are pretty much in agreement here.

"his career numbers shows he fits the perfect mold of the prototypical leadoff hitter except possibly for today's steroid inflated images of what leadoff hitters should be with a bunch of power, ala Soriano, Sizemore, etc..."

Nice broad assertion on steroid usage, and implying that Soriano and Sizemore both take steroids.  I don't think any further comment is needed.  And nobody except Lou Piniella thinks Soriano should be a leadoff hitter.

"you guys rag on Pierre, when he really fits the mold and the system employed by many teams, but especially the Dodgers since the move west...

don't hate the player, hate the system if you must"

What?????????????  This isn't football!!!  There's no such thing as the West Coast Offense in baseball.  And furthermore, other teams have leadoff hitters who, while being able to run, can actually get on base.  Like Sizemore.  Not many teams have leadoff hitters who only walk 30 times a year.

"you won't find a harder worker, lesser complainer or better teammate than Juan Pierre..."

This doesn't mean Pierre's better than players who are naturally talented.  Like Andre Ethier.  It doesn't matter if he works hard.  He's still worse than Andre Ethier.  If baseball employed only nice guys, some of the best players wouldn't be around.

"on anothe note,this year could be the 20 year renunion title..

a good omen sign :"

Arbitrary number.  What's the difference between a 20 year reunion title than a 17?  Stop watching bad Jim Carrey movies where numbers actually mean something significant.  We don't live in Fantasy Land.

"my brother just picked out a new chocolate lab for he and his girlfriend...

the name :

"Gibson"    ;- ))))))"

Look, since your making so many bad logical arguments here.  I'm going to make one of my own.  I'm going to assume your brother is like you and then I'm going to assume that he dresses up his dog in those dumb little dog sweaters that people make their dogs wear.  I assume you would do this if you have a dog, and I think I can make this assumption not founded in any rational basis because I'm simply following the logic you used in your entire argument.

"peace to all, and thank to all"

Don't end this by thanking all of us after you pretty much just ripped on all of us because we don't want Pierre to start (and I think you were also implying that we're stupid because of it).  I don't really need your insincere gratitude after reading your dumb rant about how Juan Pierre is the greatest leadoff hitter of all time.

by Rich @ True Blue LA on Mar 6, 2008 2:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Huh?
How does any of this stuff you wrote with your Plaschke style sentence structure relate to this team? You listed several guys as examples who played in an era where OPSing below 700 was normal. The exceptions are Brett Butler who got on base with consistency, Dave Roberts who the Giants cant give away, Young who played with like 6 teams in his final 6 seasons, and how dare you bring up DeShields in any argument :). But honestly, what you are saying means nothing in this time and space. Hitters are better and overall talent has improved at about every position. That said, while Pierre might have made sense in 1958, it doesn't in 2008.

Guys like Soriano and Sizemore are respected because they are GOOD players. They make appearances to All-Star games, not because they can steal 60 bases while being caught 20 times, but because they have talents that go beyond that.

And you say arm strength wont be much of an issue in left? Did you even watch the floppy arm in LF last year!? Luis Gonzales was the perfect example of whats wrong with that argument. Time and space man, you are in the wrong era.

by Sub4Era on Mar 6, 2008 7:13 AM PST reply actions  

a Moot Point
http://www.latimes.com/sports/printedition/la-sp-torre6mar06,1,4706304.story?ctrack=2&cset=true

It looks like this is now a moot point.  Apparently, according to the Dylan Hernandez article Torre doesn't believe he has strong enough bats on the team.  They will have to "manufacture runs".  That has starting Juan Pierre all over it.

Apparently, if you only have 8 hitters, you don't have enough bats, and you'll have to make up for it by putting in mediocre players in to run

The Dodgers may not have many players who can hit 30 home runs(AJones), but they have a bunch who are capable of hitting mid 20s (Kemp, Loney, Ethier, Kent, Martin).

Prepare yourself for a boatload of Pierre...because it's coming

by RoscoeP on Mar 6, 2008 9:50 AM PST reply actions  

Does Torre Know
It's because we don't use the DH in the NL?

by Rich @ True Blue LA on Mar 6, 2008 2:49 PM PST up reply actions  

if we don't have enough strong bats...
shouldn't we have as many strong bats as we can get in the line-up?

by fanerman on Mar 6, 2008 10:21 AM PST reply actions  

Re
I was going to let this slide but you have to come up with better burns than "or much more likely, analyzes other "balls" for a living". Let's see some effort out there.

by Andrew on Mar 6, 2008 6:35 PM PST reply actions  

When does the Honeymoon end?
Assuming Torre uses Pierre is used in Left field,

When does the Honeymoon end for Torre?

What effect does this have on the development of Kemp and/or Ethier?

What will the Dodgers record be in the first month?

by RoscoeP on Mar 7, 2008 4:36 PM PST reply actions  

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C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $481,000
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2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000

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SP 44
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CL 74
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DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
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AAA 13 DeJesus $86,648
AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

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