Present - Grim, Future - Bright,

Right now I think the d-backs and dodgers are going to be keeping each other company at the top of the west for some time. Over at baseball prospectus they have this peak translator that estimates how a player will perform at his peak. I decided to compare a few key young position players of both teams. Here it is…

1B AZ- Conor Jackson- .405 OBP, .496 SLG%
1B LA- James Loney- .381OBP, .502 SLG%

Advantage? Arizona. Both will have similar power (Loney will have more HR’s but we all know HR’s do not tell the whole story when judging power, with that said though Loney will have slightly more power) but CoJack has a great eye at the plate and will be able to get on base more often, seeing how OBP is a slightly better indicator of actual runs scored as opposed to SLG% it is the more important stat.

C AZ- Miguel Montero- .356 OBP, .375 SLG%
C LA- Russel Martin- .417 OBP, .481 SLG%

Advantage? LA… By far. Really not even close and I don’t think I need to go into any explanation, Martin is going to be one of the best catchers in the game… Excuse me, is already one of the best in the game. Side note I saw him in a sports memorabilia shop signing auto graphs, I was going to get one but I was wearing all my d-backs stuff and decided it was probably not best too. :-)

CF AZ- Chris B. Young- .337 OBP, .482 SLG%
CF LA- Matt Kemp- .364 OBP, .492 SLG%

Advantage? LA. Chris Young is not going to live up to the hype, their should not have even been much of a hype since his 32 HR’s in 07 were very misleading and once again an example of why HR’s do not tell the whole story when it comes to power. Young will never do a good job with getting on base, I actually think this peak projection spoils him as far as what he will post in the OBP category. I would offer around the .323-.329 range. Kemp will be better in both power and the ability to get on base giving him the edge.

3B AZ- Mark Reynolds- .363 OBP, .546 SLG%
3B LA- Blake DeWitt- .353 OBP, .417 SLG%

Advantage? Arizona. Reynolds is going to show quite a bit of power in his peak years. I think they gave him a little to much credit again in the OBP field but I also could see him doing that in a great peak year, other then that no chance. I think DeWitts numbers are a little to low but still I don’t think he will ever near Reynolds power. He may be slightly better at getting on base (notice I say slightly) but Reynolds will always have much more power.

RF AZ- Justin Upton- .414 OBP, .558 SLG%
RF LA- Andre Ethier- .360 OBP, .483 SLG%

Advantage? Arizona. This one isn’t that close but only because Upton is going to be really good. Just one problem with this. According to baseball prospectus the average peak year for a player happens at around 27. Upton is 20 right now and will be a free agent by age 26 and if he puts up numbers near the ones suggested above we won’t be able to keep him. Ethier will be good, but Upton will be much better.
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I just felt like doing some key position players for now. As you can see the Dodgers have us owned at the catcher position and have the edge at CF but we got you pretty well beat at RF and 3B. Now of course these are PROJECTIONS so take them for what they are worth, but the guys at baseball prospectus don’t just pull these numbers out of their @$$. They go through years and years of player development and statistical patterns to get these projections.

Something else that has to be brought up is the money issue, as I pointed out above with Upton we won’t be able to keep most of these guys after they are done with arbitration. The Dodgers will though so that is something that needs to be taken into account. You guys have the money security, we don’t.