Not bad, Not great

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 22, 2008 2:40 PM PDT

For a guy who was supposed to be our next superstar, Matt Kemp's 23 year old season left much to be desired. The much maligned Todd Hollandworth had a better season when he was ridiculed for winning the ROY. Among Dodger outfielders who have had at least 100 games and played 50% of those in the outfield and had an OPS+ > 100, Matt Kemp sits at the bottom. Still a nice season but one likes to see growth from age 22 to age 23 and that didn't happen, unless you like stolen bases. Thanks to Baseball Reference for the info. I didn't link to their Player Index system because they only allow one sort and I wanted this sorted by age and then OPS+.

Notice Andre Ethier making a nice showing at every age group.

Name	OPS+	Year	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ron Fairly	145	1961	22	301	0.322	0.434	0.522	0.956
Duke Snider	123	1949	22	615	0.292	0.361	0.493	0.854
Bill Buckner	117	1972	22	405	0.319	0.348	0.41	0.758
Willie Davis	116	1962	22	666	0.285	0.334	0.453	0.787
Willie Crawford	111	1969	22	440	0.247	0.331	0.401	0.732

Tommy Davis	149	1962	23	711	0.346	0.374	0.535	0.909
Duke Snider	140	1950	23	684	0.321	0.379	0.553	0.932
Raul Mondesi	123	1994	23	454	0.306	0.333	0.516	0.849
Mike Marshall	117	1983	23	518	0.284	0.347	0.434	0.781
Todd Hollandswort	113	1996	23	526	0.291	0.348	0.437	0.785
Frank Howard	107	1960	23	487	0.268	0.32	0.464	0.784
Matt Kemp	103	2008	23	633	0.289	0.337	0.455	0.792

Tommy Davis	141	1963	24	597	0.326	0.359	0.457	0.816
Willie Crawford	124	1971	24	375	0.281	0.334	0.442	0.776
Raul Mondesi	123	1995	24	580	0.285	0.328	0.496	0.824
Duke Snider	118	1951	24	672	0.277	0.344	0.483	0.827
Bill Buckner	117	1974	24	620	0.314	0.351	0.412	0.763
Andre Ethier	113	2006	24	441	0.308	0.365	0.477	0.842
Mike Marshall	112	1984	24	541	0.257	0.315	0.438	0.753
Willie Davis	110	1964	24	652	0.294	0.316	0.413	0.729

Frank Howard	147	1962	25	538	0.296	0.346	0.56	0.906
Mike Marshall	140	1985	25	564	0.293	0.342	0.515	0.857
Duke Snider	136	1952	25	598	0.303	0.368	0.494	0.862
Raul Mondesi	123	1996	25	673	0.297	0.334	0.495	0.829
Tommy Davis	105	1964	25	631	0.275	0.311	0.397	0.708
Carl Furillo	104	1947	25	476	0.295	0.347	0.437	0.784
Andre Ethier	103	2007	25	505	0.284	0.35	0.452	0.802
Reggie Williams	101	1986	25	338	0.277	0.331	0.376	0.707
Franklin Stubbs	101	1986	25	465	0.226	0.291	0.421	0.712

Duke Snider	166	1953	26	680	0.336	0.419	0.627	1.046
Pedro Guerrero	156	1982	26	652	0.304	0.378	0.536	0.914
Kal Daniels	154	1990	26	526	0.296	0.389	0.531	0.92
Frank Howard	149	1963	26	459	0.273	0.33	0.518	0.848
Raul Mondesi	140	1997	26	670	0.31	0.36	0.541	0.901
Willie Crawford	139	1973	26	543	0.295	0.396	0.453	0.849
Sandy Amoros	132	1956	26	361	0.26	0.385	0.517	0.902
Andre Ethier	124	2008	26	575	0.301	0.368	0.509	0.877
Stan Javier	118	1990	26	321	0.304	0.384	0.399	0.783
Ron Fairly	115	1965	26	654	0.274	0.361	0.377	0.738
Carl Furillo	109	1948	26	414	0.297	0.374	0.407	0.781
Milton Bradley	108	2004	26	597	0.267	0.362	0.424	0.786
Mike Marshall	108	1986	26	362	0.233	0.298	0.439	0.737
Bill Buckner	105	1976	26	680	0.301	0.326	0.389	0.715
Willie Davis	102	1966	26	653	0.284	0.302	0.405	0.707

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Right, but Hollandsworth never projected to hit like that for even one year. And he proved it ever since then. And he was a left fielder.

I dunno, I expected regression to come for Kemp from last year’s small sample size numbers. His HR total was also expected to drop, IMO. Despite his power, he’s always demonstrated a propensity to hit an amazing number of groundballs.

I actually think this year was a good one for him. Not so much because he showed signs of drastic improvement, but because he’s established that he is an everyday center fielder that has the ability to be an above average hitter. Also, last time I checked he was still top 10 in VORP among centerfielders. Even if he doesn’t progress, which he should, he’s still very valuable.

I hope Ethier outhits him too, since he plays right field. Ethier’s also Top 10 for his position in VORP, just like Kemp. Throw in Manny, and you’ve got Top 10 VORPs in the majors at every position in the Dodgers’ outfield. Not bad.

by Chad Moriyama on Sep 22, 2008 3:16 PM PDT reply actions

I was around during that time

and quite a few people expected Hollandsworth to develop more power. It never happened but his season didn’t come out of the blue, he was expected to be a good player.

Patience is for those die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 22, 2008 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe I was the only one who thought he was a fluke then.

by Chad Moriyama on Sep 22, 2008 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I was always under the impression that Hollandsworth never fulfilled his potential due to chronic injury problems, rather than him not really having very much of it.

Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer, head to the ER every October.

by Tango and Cash on Sep 22, 2008 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions

EqAs-Age 23 season

Kemp does a little better here.

Tommy Davis- .323
Duke Snider- .307
Mike Marshall- .289
Raul Mondesi- .287
Matt Kemp- .286
Todd Hollandsworth- .283
Frank Howard- .269

I like Kemp’s improvements. His defense seems to have improved, his walk rate has gotten a little better, and he should start hitting for power in the next couple of years. If Kemp can stay in centerfield long-term, we’ve solved our CF problem, at least.

Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer, head to the ER every October.

by Tango and Cash on Sep 22, 2008 3:18 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, that’s what I meant. The position difference is what’s most important. Center fielders really suck at hitting.

Also, I think his defense should stick. He’ll always misread a few balls, and he’ll never win a Gold Glove, but his speed should allow him to be an average/above average center fielder for a while.

by Chad Moriyama on Sep 22, 2008 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Becoming a CF is his saving grace

right now. Of that list, he’s the only one who is a CF which had to help his EQA since that is position dependent. Other then Duke of course, and he was a superstar.

Kemp as a CF should be very valuable, I was just hoping for more. He did cut his K rate quite a bit in the 2nd half but it didn’t result in any more production. At least for now.

Patience is for those die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 22, 2008 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Fear Mongering

Francoeur: K/BB-AVG/OBP/SLG
Kemp: K/BB-AVG/OBP/SLG

Age 22
20.3/3.4-.260/.293/.449
22.6/5.2-.342/.373/.521

Age 23
20.1/6.1-.293/.338/.444
25.3/6.8-.289//.337/.455

Age 24
17.8/6.4-.239/.297/.361
?

I’m not trying to suggest Kemp is doomed to collapse, or Francoeur can’t turn it around, but those age 23 seasons are closer than I’d like. And Kemp’s control of the strike zone is a serious concern. Just realized it’s Kemp’s birthday tomorrow, so happy birthday Matt.

by dan310 on Sep 22, 2008 5:45 PM PDT reply actions

Fear...soothing?

Kemp-Francoeur-Age 23

LD%
23.0-19.4

Both trending upwards.

IF/F%
1.4-14.9

Both trending down.

HR/F%
11.2-9.7

Kemp trending up, Jeff down.

Though batting average dependent players are always subject to variation. If Kemp learns to cut down his strikeouts, his batting average could increase quite significantly. He wouldn’t even have to hit line drives really, just groundballs. With his speed his BABIP should be above his LD%+12 anyway.

by Chad Moriyama on Sep 22, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions

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Pos	No	Player	2012 Salary
C	17	Ellis	$490,000
1B	7	Loney	$6,375,000
2B	14	Ellis	$2,500,000
3B	5	Uribe	$8,000,000
SS	9	Gordon	$485,000
LF	23	Abreu	$401,311
CF	27	Kemp	$10,000,000
RF	16	Ethier	$10,950,000

OF	10	Gwynn	$850,000
IF	12	Sellers	$481,000
OF/1B	33	Van Slyke	$388,197
2B/3B	3	Kennedy	$800,000
C	18	Treanor	$850,000

SP	22	Kershaw	$6,000,000
SP	58	Billingsley	$9,000,000
SP	29	Lilly	$12,000,000
SP	44	Harang	$3,000,000
SP	35	Capuano	$3,000,000

CL	74	Jansen	$491,000
RHP	52	Lindblom	$483,000
RHP	51	Belisario	$414,426
RHP	54	Guerra	$488,000
RHP	28	Wright	$900,000
LHP	57	Elbert	$488,500
RHP	60	Coffey	$1,000,000

DL	55	Guerrier	$4,750,000
DL	6	Hairston	$2,250,000
DL	21	Rivera	$4,000,000
60DL	36	Hawksworth	$495,000
60DL	41	De La Rosa	$485,000

AAA	13	DeJesus	$86,648
AA	50	Eovaldi	$7,885
AAA	56	Antonini	$7,869

		Manny	$8,087,432	deferred
		Andruw	$3,375,000	deferred
		Pierre	$3,050,000	deferred
		Furcal	$3,000,000	deferred
		Kuroda	$2,000,000	deferred
		Garland	$1,500,000	option buyout
		Blake	$1,250,000	option buyout
DFA	66	MacDougal	$650,000

Totals			$114,830,268
For more detailed information, click here.
Current 40-man roster count: 42 (incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)

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Not bad, Not great

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I was around during that time

EqAs-Age 23 season

Becoming a CF is his saving grace

Fear Mongering

Fear...soothing?

Comments For This Post Are Closed

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