More OPD
by Andrew on Sep 3, 2008 2:30 PM PDT
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Chris Dial has updated his offense plus defense numbers. These use a linear weights based system to determine offensive runs above average, and a zone rating based system to determine defensive runs above average.
Manny Ramirez 21.8
Rafael Furcal 18.3
Russell Martin 13.6
Andre Ethier 10.6
Matt Kemp 8.3
Blake DeWitt -2.6
Casey Blake -4.2
Jeff Kent -5.6
Andy LaRoche -6.0
Luis Maza -6.8
Nomar Garciaparra -7.0
Angel Berroa -7.1
Juan Pierre -8.3
Chin Lung Hu -8.6
Delwyn Young -10.5
James Loney -10.7
Mark Sweeney -10.7
Andruw Jones -20.10
The two most valuable players on the Dodgers have played on the team for a little more than two months combined. Pretty sad. Nothing is too surprising about the list, our only good players that have been around all year are Martin, Ethier, and Kemp, our non Furcal shortstops have been pretty equally horrible, and Andruw Jones has managed to use his time off to not be the worst player in the NL. There were a few interesting things though:
-Manny Ramirez is the 18th most valuable position player in the NL despite only being here a month. He's already passed up Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Ryan Braun to become the second most valuable left fielder.
-Andy LaRoche as a Pirate -7.4 runs, only 3.2 less than Casey Blake. Even though LaRoche is doing an amazing job at making me look like a fool by hitting .143/.233/.299 since leaving, Casey Blake's defense means that he's not all that much better.
-James Loney has hurt the team as much as Mark Sweeney. Since these numbers count double plays, and Sweeney isn't allowed to touch a glove, Loney has contributed just as much as the hated Sweeney. Good contact, no speed, and little power might be a terrible combination. If Loney doesn't improve his power and defense, he's going to be a hole for the Dodgers.
Interestingly, three of the top 20 players in OPD this year were obtained for free. Ryan Ludwick, Jody Gerut and Jayson Werth were all taken off the scrapheap and have been far more valuable than anyone that's spent the season with this team. With the huge amount of holes the Dodgers have next year, we need to watch the guys who get non tendered, DFAed, or released this offseason and see if we can pick up someone like this off the scrap heap. Yeah, there's risk involved, but we need all the cheap talent we can get.
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bRAA per StatCorner.com
Manny Ramirez 16.3
Rafael Furcal 16.2
Andre Ethier 15.2
James Loney 14.6
Matt Kemp 12.4
Russel Martin 9.5
Jeff Kent 0.5
Corey Wade 0.3
Casey Blake 0.2
Terry Tiffee 0.0
Everyone else is in the negative. Andruw Jones is as far negative as Manny is positive.
If it wasn't for college football I'd probably have given up on sports.
It’s the way it’s weighted i’m sure. If you ground into any number of double plays, you’re penalized severely. Plus, Braun doesn’t walk much.
I dunno, i’m not completely sold on this metric at all. Especially since it only uses one defensive value as the end all. And I think we all know how volatile those can be.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 3, 2008 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, that seems impossible. Would anyone not trade the one month we’ve had of Manny for the whole season of Braun???
by Brendan Scolari on Sep 3, 2008 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Linear weights kills you for double plays, they’re the equivalent of more than three outs. It makes sense since you’re turning a hit into an out, which is a difference of about .65 runs.
Does it make sense to do this? Maybe. It is something to note if a guy consistently is near the league lead.
Co-Author Of The Fourth Most Popular NL West Based Blog On SBN
I think a lot depends on how predictive double plays are. How much has to do with the batter and how much has to do with the guy in front of him.
Co-Author Of The Fourth Most Popular NL West Based Blog On SBN
Linear weights also really values on base percentage. The difference between a walk and an out is more than a single and a triple.
Co-Author Of The Fourth Most Popular NL West Based Blog On SBN
And you know, Manny does have a 300 point OPS lead.
Co-Author Of The Fourth Most Popular NL West Based Blog On SBN
Yep. But i’ll take a .950 OPS over 6 months over a 1.200 OPS over 1 month anyday.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 3, 2008 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you just got back from a rendezvous with Mary Jane!
by Tango and Cash on Sep 3, 2008 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Going by this metric, the Dodgers should trade Matt Kemp for Jody Gerut, because Gerut is a Top 20 player in the NL and will be a HUGE upgrade down the stretch this year. He’s cheap too.
Sweet, right?
Gerut is out OPSing Kemp in a pitchers park. It’s not like he’ll keep doing it, but the guy is having a studly year.
Co-Author Of The Fourth Most Popular NL West Based Blog On SBN
The reason he’s above Kemp in that ranking is because he’s apparently some kind of savant with the glove all of a sudden.
I’m just gonna say that the differences between Dodger Stadium THIS YEAR and Petco are not very different.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
And Kemp is far better at stealing bases, which is why his VORP is higher. I don’t necessarily understand most of the rankings, to be honest. I’m skeptical I guess.
If you look at
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 3, 2008 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions
The ESPN park factors are known to be screwed up. Use the Baseball Reference ones
The defense is why he’s way, way better than Kemp in this metric. He’s still out hitting him.
Co-Author Of The Fourth Most Popular NL West Based Blog On SBN
Matt Kemp has a WARP3 of 7.0 compared to Gerut’s 6.0.
by Tango and Cash on Sep 3, 2008 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Gerut vs Kemp
Stat RV/PA RV600 wOBA wOBA* lgwOBA bRAA wOBA+
Gerut 0.046 27.6 0.372 0.380 0.327 16.3 116
Kemp 0.022 13.2 0.353 0.352 0.327 12.4 108
Its close I guess but the edge offensively goes to Gerut.
If it wasn't for college football I'd probably have given up on sports.
Right, that’s why I said his VORP was higher because of his clear stealing superiority, which is still part of the offensive game plan.
And the fact that he’s ahead of Kemp because of a defensive metric makes me even more skeptical. Pretty sure everybody knows how defensive metrics can be, and i’ve never been a fan of using a single one to make a complete judgment.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 3, 2008 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Lots of people like Loney, and therefor do not see the problem he is. If he does not develop his power and significantly develop his patience, he will always be a well below average 1B.
I’m impartial when it comes to Loney. I really don’t care one way or another. He’s always had power issues, and he’s not a overly patient hitter. To say he’s a problem though? Nah.
I just find it hard to believe that the guy who’s 12th among MLB first basemen in VORP is somehow arguably the worst first baseman in the majors…OFFENSIVELY.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 4, 2008 3:43 AM PDT up reply actions
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