Where's Your 20?
The Dodgers have long been known as a franchise rich in pitching history and tradition, especially since their move to Los Angeles. One reason for this has of course been Dodger Stadium, which has played as a pitcher's park for the bulk of it's history (although in the last few years, not so much). There have also been some very good pitchers in Dodger blue as well.
Although wins are certainly not the best measuring stick for starting pitchers, a long-standing mark of excellence for starting pitchers has been the 20-win season. For the Dodgers, can you guess how many 20-win seasons they have had in the last 30 years?
From 1979 to 2008, the Dodgers, a team as rich in pitching tradition and history as any other franchise, have had a grand total of three 20-win seasons from their starters:
| Pitcher | Year | Wins | Losses |
| Fernando Valenzuela | 1986 | 21 | 11 |
| Orel Hershiser | 1988 | 23 | 8 |
| Ramon Martinez | 1990 | 20 | 6 |
That figure seems astonishingly low to me. I decided to see how the Dodgers fared compared to other teams in this department, and I was even more surprised to find that three isn't such a bad total after all. In the last 30 years, there have been only 110 20-win seasons, an average of 3.67 per team.
| 20-Win Seasons From 1979-2008 | |
| Team | # of 20-Win Seasons |
| Braves | 10 |
| Yankees | 9 |
| Athletics | 9 |
| Red Sox | 8 |
| Astros | 7 |
| Blue Jays | 7 |
| Cardinals | 6 |
| D-Backs | 5 |
| White Sox | 5 |
| Twins | 5 |
| Orioles | 4 |
| Royals | 4 |
| Dodgers | 3 |
| Mets | 3 |
| Giants | 3 |
| Tigers | 3 |
| Mariners | 3 |
| Cubs | 2 |
| Reds | 2 |
| Phillies | 2 |
| Pirates | 2 |
| Rangers | 2 |
| Marlins | 1 |
| Brewers | 1 |
| Angels | 1 |
| Indians | 1 |
| Padres | 0 |
| Nationals/Expos | 0 |
| Rays | 0 |
| Rockies | 0 |
| Total 20-Win Seasons* | 110 |
*There were two 20-win seasons involving multiple teams. In 1984, Rick Sutcliffe won 20 games for the Indians and Cubs (along with the NL Cy Young Award). In 2002, Bartolo Colon won 20 games for the Indians and Expos. What is it with the Indians trading away these 20-game winners midseason? Actually, I'm pretty sure Cleveland liked the return of the Colon trade. Anyway, I didn't count those seasons in the table above.
Outside of the Rockies and Rays, with zero 20-game winners in their short history, only 6 teams have had a longer 20-game winner drought than the Dodgers:
| Last 20-Win Season | |||
| Team | Year | Pitcher | W-L |
| Dodgers | 1990 | Ramon Martinez | 20-6 |
| Reds | 1988 | Danny Jackson | 23-8 |
| Brewers | 1986 | Teddy Higuera | 20-11 |
| Orioles | 1984 | Mike Boddicker | 20-11 |
| Phillies | 1982 | Steve Carlton | 23-11 |
| Nats/Expos | 1978 | Ross Grimsley | 20-11 |
| Padres | 1978 | Gaylord Perry | 21-6 |
That's 18 seasons for the Dodgers without a 20-game winner. In fact, the Dodgers haven't even had a 19-game winner in that span. The closest they've come to the magical 20-win plateau was a pair of 18-win seasons in 1999 (Kevin Brown) and 2000 (Chan Ho Park).
Winning 20 games is a lot harder to do these days. Look at the decline in 20-win seasons by decade in MLB:
| 20-Win Seasons By Decade | |||
| Decade | 20-Win Seasons | Team Seasons | % Per Team Season |
| 1960-1969 | 73 | 198 | 36.9% |
| 1970-1979 | 96 | 246 | 39.0% |
| 1980-1989 | 37 | 260 | 14.2% |
| 1990-1999 | 34 | 278 | 12.2% |
| 2000-2008 | 34 | 270 | 12.6% |
There just aren't that many 20-win seasons to go around anymore. Who will be the next Dodger to reach the 20-win barrier? My gut says Billingsley, provided of course he takes Bill Plaschke's advice and raises his machismo. Kershaw is another possibility, but the soon-to-be 21-year old has enough expectations already.
Comments
That better be a dig at Bill Plaschke. I’m not sure if anybody’s told you, but it is not allowed to say anything positive about Bill Plaschke here.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on
Jan 14, 2009 1:42 PM PST
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But of course!
I also subscribe to that club. :)
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on
Jan 14, 2009 2:00 PM PST
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I will say on behalf
of Plaschke that he was very generous with praise for bloggers when I responded to one of his columns.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on
Jan 14, 2009 2:09 PM PST
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To be fair
I expected to be angry after reading his column today but after reading it I had no real issues at all, and that it was fairly evenhanded and well written.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on
Jan 14, 2009 2:27 PM PST
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It definitely wasn’t his worst. I didn’t like the implication that he was so bad in the playoffs against the Phillies because he wasn’t head-hunting.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on
Jan 14, 2009 4:48 PM PST
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I expected Plaschke to be the type of guy who really hates bloggers.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on
Jan 14, 2009 3:50 PM PST
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re:
Me to, I was quite surprised with his response.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on
Jan 14, 2009 4:08 PM PST
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Unless he secretly hates bloggers but recognizes the pitfalls of going all Buzz Bissinger on them.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on
Jan 14, 2009 4:48 PM PST
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Eric
why did you only go back 30 years? The beginning of the 4 man rotation or you just didn’t want to write about Andy Messersmith?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on
Jan 14, 2009 2:11 PM PST
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It's a bit of cheating
or creating endpoints. Prior to Fernando in 1986, Tommy John in 1977 was the last 20-game winning Dodger. I was thinking of saying from 1978-present, but I rounded to just say 30 years.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on
Jan 14, 2009 2:26 PM PST
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20 game winners
well, of course, pitchers used to have more starts—7-8 on average than pitchers of more recent history. A lot of 20 game winners would not have been if they only started 30-32 games like now. Also a major factor now is that most pitchers do not complete games and go no more than 7 innings. A significant amount of wins are lost that way (i,e. Santanna with the Mets last year). Anyway, It obviously has become an irrelevant stat in regards to the way the game is now played.
by nevernine on
Jan 15, 2009 4:19 PM PST
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Wow....
5 20-game winners for the Dbacks? I’m a little impressed myself.
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
by DbacksSkins on
Jan 16, 2009 7:12 PM PST
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