Redefining "Worst Case Scenario"
"The greatest trick Andruw Jones ever pulled was covincing the world he didn't exist."
-Not said by Jeff "Verbal" Kent

Andruw Jones after striking out, via cache.daylife.com
Happy Andruw Jones Releasing Day everybody! Today, January 15, is the day by which the Dodgers must either trade or release Andruw Jones, per the terms of the agreement to restructure his contract. Of course, why would anyone give up anything to the Dodgers for Andruw when they know he is going to be released by today anyway?
Thus ends the relationship. I think it's fair to say Andruw Jones is the worst free agent signing in MLB history. The Dodgers gave Jones a $36.2 million contract over two years -- I move I supported at the time by the way, since I thought it was a short-term risk for a once great player who could possibly rebound in 2008 -- but he showed up out of shape and never hit a lick for the Dodgers:
| Games | PA | R | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ |
| 75 | 238 | 21 | 3 | 14 | .158 | .256 | .249 | 34 |
Jones was also 5 for 58 with runners in scoring position. It took Manny Ramirez all of 12 plate appearances with RISP as a Dodger to get his 5th hit, and that included 3 walks and a HBP!
Growing up, I used to hear horror stories about disastrous Dodger free agent signings such as Dave Goltz and Don Stanhouse, both of whom came aboard in 1980. Mike Davis bombed in Los Angeles (from 22 HR in 1987 with Oakland to 2 in 1988 with LA), but of course he is forgiven since he got the most famous walk in Dodger history. The tragic failures of hometown signing Darryl Strawberry still haunt me to this day. And don't get me started on Juan Pierre!
However, none of these signings were as bad as Andruw Jones. So I guess I should thank Mr. Jones for recalibrating my scale for measuring bad free agent signings. I guess he served a purpose after all.
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Comments
This is what I've never understood
A Jones signed his free agent deal on December 12th 2007. Ned and management have gone on record about how upset they were with his physical conditioning when he reported to camp. Even word this winter of voiding his contract because of that. We all saw how out of shape he was from the get go.
Are you telling me that between the time he had to take a physical on Dec 12th and late February he became the pile of goo we saw in spring training? I don’t think so, at some point the Dodgers need to take these free agent physicals a little more seriously. It is after all their money they waste when they don’t.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 15, 2009 9:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Good point
I wonder if part of the reason they didn’t fully pursue voiding Andruw’s contract was because they knew at least partially for his outofshapedness (I’m making that a word) via his physical.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 15, 2009 9:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Silver Lining
Eric,
I guess we can thank Andruw for making the Pierre signing look a little better?
I am still amazed that the Dodgers were aware of a rotator cuff injury with Scmidt and they still shelled out over 40 million for him.
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 15, 2009 9:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I was willing to accept that the Dodgers simply made a risk with Schmidt when they signed him. But when it became public that they knew of a partially torn rotator cuff his signing moved into the “criminal” classification.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 15, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
First, I thought we just didn’t access his value well, but now I realize Ned was just crazy…I don’t blame McCourt for tightening the leash after that kind of thing
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 15, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's a fireable offense
that Ned gave $47 million to a pitcher with a partially torn rotator cuff, but I’m almost certain McCourt would have signed off on the deal at the time (especially since they bought an insurance policy based on said information). Which of course worries me even more! :)
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 15, 2009 9:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I get the impression
that Frank and Jamie came in not knowing too much about how to run a team.
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 15, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
re:
Sure, but by the time they signed off on Schmidt they had three years on the job. Who signs off a pitcher with a contract that size knowing he’s damaged goods. It is one thing to sign him to make good deal like Penny/Saito got with Boston but they gave him the largest free agent pitching deal in Dodger history on a per year basis. Nothing was more bizarre this winter then that little nugget.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 15, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent point
A one year contract with incentives that would guarantee a second year would have been great.
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 15, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Pierre signing is still the worst. There was some risk with Jones, but his ‘07 year was due more to bad luck than lack of skill. Essentially, everyone says he was bad in ’07 because of his low BA, which was due to his much lower than average BABIP. Andrew (who writes here) actually did some good stat analysis that Jones might’ve been declining based on his line drive % ratio, but at the very least, there was valid reasoning to think Jones could’ve been an asset.
Juan Pierre on the other hand, has always been mediocre, and never did anything for anybody to justify him ever even being offered such a contract. Worst LA free agent signing ever. I don’t care what anyone says. There was never any reason at any time to make one think Juan Pierre was worth that contract. Jones was at least a calculated risk. Juan Pierre was (and is) just worthless.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on Jan 15, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Smoltz said on the Dan Patrick show that
the Yankees and Dodgers were trying to sign him too.
by Tripon on Jan 15, 2009 10:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
re:
Good, at least Ned was looking at skill.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 15, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A potential problem of Schmidt/Jones
is that Colletti is now even more risk averse then ever. Even prudent relatively low-cost risks like Saito and/or Smoltz get ignored because we don’t want to “get burned” again, as if all risks are equal.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 15, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why
I don’t think we will end up with Ben Sheets. I think he is worth the “risk” and has tremedous upside.
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 15, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I’ve given up hope on Sheets as well.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 15, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bad Signings--
People always bring up Juan Pierre as a bad signing.
I think that is unfair and should not be included in the discussion of
say, Schmidt, Jones, etc. Pierre has been the player the Dodgers
thought he was when they got him. Good average (I know it was
down this year, but in his defense, he was jerked in and out of
the line up all year, or he surely would have been hitting in
the 290’s if not .300 the way he usually does.), great speed,
and good attitude. I know, no walks—they KNEW that going in.
No power, not a good arm—they KNEW that going in.
The point is, you don’t complain about a deal you made when
that player did give you what you knew he had—and didn’t.
Save the regret for guys who DIDN’T give you jack, and there
are plenty of those to go aroundl
by nevernine on Jan 15, 2009 3:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
re:
You make a good point but I think Ned did think he was a better centerfielder even with the rag arm. He was signed to play CF not LF and that is what we have now. A light hitting, speedy LF and those careers don’t have much of a life. I’ll use Podboy. as an example.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 15, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So if we give a mediocre player a huge contract that can’t be considered a bad signing because we knew he was bad coming in? That doesn’t really make too much sense. You can expect something from a particular player and get exactly what you wanted, and it can still be a bad signing. One obvious reason is you overvalue what that player provides you. In Juan Pierre’s case, it’s an empty batting average. This argument is akin to those who say that Jim Rice and Dawson shouldn’t be penalized for not walking back in their playing days because they ’weren’t asked to do it’ or ’didn’t know how it important it was.’ Even though it’s obvious (and always has been) that being on base is much better than making an out.
To conclude, if your only assets are “good average, great speed, good attitude,” you’re probably not a very good ballplayer. And Juan Pierre isn’t. And he shouldn’t have been paid like one. Juan Pierre was, IMO, our worst free agent signing ever because there wasn’t even a calculated risk involved. He wasn’t potentially coming back from a bad season or injury. He was a mediocre player who played exactly the same as he always have, and the Dodger front office should’ve known better. I applaud moves like the signing of Andruw Jones. It was a risk, but it would’ve had great results if it worked out. If it didn’t, we’re out some money (and a roster spot). But to know you’re getting mediocrity and then signing that player to a contract worthy of a very good player, that is a bad signing. At least guys like Jones and Schmidt had actually produced before. Juan Pierre never did anything in his career that would make anyone think that he was worth the contract he got.
Short term high money signings represent a calculated risk taken by the front office. It might work, or it might not, but you could make the argument it’s at least worth a shot. The Juan Pierre signing, however, is a sign of systemic front office ineptitude. It’s a sign that they don’t know how to properly value baseball players. And that is much more dangerous than taking a risk and failing.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on Jan 15, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
JP
was a terrible signing, but that signing was made much worse by how he was used. JP in Left is an all-star defensively. JP only hitting against right-handers is average offensively. Had he been used (or, given our lack of a LF right now – were he to be used) in Left and platooned with someone like, say, Jayson Repko. That is pretty good value for what would combine for ~$12.5M/year.
So, again, I certainly agree with you the NC is inept. But his ineptitude has been magnified by the corresponding ineptitude of on-field management (which, for the Dodgers has always been at best middling) or, if you wish, further ineptitude on the part of the front office for not insisting he be played in that manner.
by Paul Scott on Jan 15, 2009 7:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
From the defensive stats I’ve seen, Pierre is a terrible center fielder, and an above average left fielder, definitely not an all-star caliber defender. I don’t think we should assume that just because I guy has played center and moves to left or right, he’s going to be fantastic there.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on Jan 15, 2009 8:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't assume that
using Dewwan’s +/- system, he is one of the best LF in 2008. But, see below, where I correct myself after having taken the time to examine him more carefully. Again, not the signing I would have liked to have seen and he was still paid too much, but absent terrible usage (which can also be contributed to the FO), he really would not have been as miserable as he has been for us.
by Paul Scott on Jan 15, 2009 8:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I overstated my case
so I’ll correct it now. Even against only RHP Pierre is not an “average” corner fielder offensively. He is still below average (by about 0.040 OPS). But combined with his outstanding defense in Left, he comes out average to slightly above average for the position. So, I’ll stand by my initial conclusion that he is decent value for his contract if played in LF AND played only against RHP.
Still overpaid, but decent value and most certainly not the “worst signing ever” if used appropriately.
by Paul Scott on Jan 15, 2009 8:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
His FRAA last year was a 3, which while not great, is much better than his CF numbers. That combined with his mediocre offense playing in a premium offensive position led him to be worth about 2.4 wins last year. I don’t see anyway you can cut it to make an argument that Juan Pierre wasn’t the worst free agent signing the Dodgers have ever had. Except for perhaps Jason Schmidt, given that the Dodgers knew about his rotator cuff injury.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on Jan 15, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ned got what he wanted
in Pierre. It was just half way through the first season that Ned realized Pierre was not what the Dodgers actually needed. That is what worries me about Ned.
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 15, 2009 4:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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