Who to extend... Looking at the future

[Editor's Note: This is such a good post written by bablue, it deserved to be on the front page]

There's been lots of talk lately about the Dodgers extending their young players. So I would like to get people's opinion on who we should actually try to extend and what they will get, because this will be a big factor in our payroll over the next few years. However, we may actually be able to wait on some of our players for another year or two before we start extension talks. Anyway, lets take a look into our future.

INFIELD-

Russell Martin- I think this is the most obvious one, and also the most important. He's an all-star caliber catcher who's just starting to get really expensive. Going year to year will end up being much more costly, and he may wait to test free agency if we wait too long to try and offer an extension. Brian McCann got a 6/26.8M extension with a 12M club option for 2013 after the '05 season but he had one less year of service time. If you take the first year out it becomes a 5/26.3 extension, which hopefully will be near what Martin gets although McCann probably would have been just short of Super Two eligible after '06, so Maritn's would have be adjusted upward a few million. Accounting for inflation I would predict Martin gets a 5 year extension worth between 32-35M with an option for a 6th year at 12-15M. This would keep Martin in LA for a long time. 

James Loney- He is an interesting case because although he is arbitration eligible next year and widely considered a good young player, I don't think he deserves an extension yet. He was only worth 0.6 wins last year (even playing a full year) according to Fangraphs, or 2.8M fair market value, and he clearly won't agree to an AAV that low. But in 2007 he was worth 2.1 wins, despite 250 less at bats. I think we should wait on Loney and hope he can produce more like 2007, including show more of his gold glove potential, otherwise we don't want a mediocre first baseman taking up a significant chunk of the payroll. Give him another year or even two, and then maybe we will have a better idea of what he's worth. If he can't improve, then maybe Andrew Lambo will be brought up as our future first baseman.

Blake Dewitt- Not too much to say about him, he's simply too far away from his potential to worry about an extension. We still have him under team control for six more years, and have no idea how he'll grow as he ages. He could end up being a great third baseman or he might never hit enough to stay a starter as he gets more expensive. 

SS- We just signed Furcal so no starter needed here. There is a lot of doubt about Hu's future and Dejesus has yet to reach the majors, so we are set here for the next few years.

3b- Casey Blake just signed on for 3 years, but probably won't be a starter for all of them. Eventually Dewitt will likely move here as Dejesus gets phased into the lineup, and then we'll see about his future.

OUTFIELD-

LF- No takers to extend Pierre? Didn't think so. Hopefully he will be traded sometime in the next couple years but otherwise he'll be part of the outfield. Delwyn Young is a nice role player but its doubtful he'll ever be a starter with us. And then there's that Manny guy... Hopefully this spot will be his for a few more years. Maybe we will try to extend him for another year or so at the end of his contract if he's still producing, or maybe he'll be here for three years and ride off into the sunset. By the end of 2010 Andrew Lambo should be starting to fit himself into this picture, but if Manny is here he'll have to be a backup or compete with Loney for a while.

Matt Kemp- He should (key word) be our center fielder going forward, assuming he doesn't grow out of the position. If Manny signs with us we won't have much of a choice. He is definitely someone we want to lock up but he might not be ready for an extension yet. He probably (at least if I was his agent) wants to wait a bit longer to showcase his massive potential, as his power numbers could rise and combined with his blazing speed make him an expensive commodity. I would try to extend him as soon as possible but realistically we may have to wait at least a year, when Kemp is first eligible for arbitration, until we can sign him long-term. Before the '08 season Curtis Granderson signed a 5/30.25 extension with a 2014 club option for 13M, and Kemp could be looking at similar money if he breaks out as Granderson did. Even still, this would be a huge bargain as Kemp was worth 2.8 wins, or 12.4M last year alone.

Andre Ethier- He should be our right fielder in the future provided he quits getting jerked around by Torre. He is a potential bargain because he doesn't put up huge stats for an outfielder, despite being very good. He was worth 3.6 wins, or 16.4M last year, but even if he can't keep that up, he is often overlooked and consequently should sign for much cheaper than he's worth. He can still wait a year because he is cheap, and then maybe sign for something similar to Brad Hawpe's 3/17.4 extension with the Rockies with a 10M option signed a year ago. He could do this despite being worth triple the value of Hawpe over the last three years because Coors inflates Hawpe's numbers and because of his terrible defense. If we could sign Ethier for 3/18 with an option after next season, we will have gotten a steal.

ROTATION-

Chad Billingsley- The ace of our rotation, only 24 years old, Billz is an awesome asset to have. That said, we should probably wait on trying to extend him. Why wait? Because of the Verducci Effect, a theory which states that pitchers 25 or under who increase their innings by more than 30 from one year to the next are due for serious regression and health issues. Going from 147 to 200.2 innings last year (not including the playoffs), and then breaking his leg in the offseason, there is a lot to worry about Chad right now. Because of this, I would wait until after next year to try to extend him. If he still pitches great, you know you have a true ace and can lock him up to a Kazmir/Hamels type extension of recent offseasons. If he is ineffective or hurt, you either can extend him at a discounted rate or get him for another year at cheap prics where you can observe him. Billz should be a big part of our future, but I think we need to wait another year to lock him up.

Hiroki Kuroda- He still has two more years left on his current contract, and will then be 36, so no need to extend him. After his deal is up, we could try to re-sign him if he is still effective.

Clayton Kershaw- Hopefully will become co-ace with Billingsley, Kershaw's future is as bright as anyone's. However, he's still just 20 years old and the flameout rate is simply too high for pitches of his age. We still have six more years of team control so there's no need to rush to sign him long-term. I would wait at least two, maybe three years, and if he has been healthy and good, would look to lock him up for along time. By then, who knows what could happen though.

James McDonald, Ramon Trancoso, Scott Elbert- These guys are all possible cornerstones of our rotation in the future. But for now they are all two young and inexperienced to even think about extending. It is likely we will sign a veteran starting pitcher to fill one of these last two spots so depending on who it is they may be keeping one of these guys in the bullpen for a couple years. It is also likely at least one of them will end up a full-time reliever, as there are only so many starting spots to go around. Hopefully in a few years guys like Ethan Martin and Chris Withrow will be putting pressure on these guys.

BULLPEN-

Jonathon Broxton- The new full-time closer, Ox is one of the best relievers in baseball. Because of this I feel it is important to lock him up now, while he is still treated like a setup man. Once he gets the "Proven Closer" label, his salary will go up dramatically. I think it would be unprecedented to lock a young reliever up so early and for so long, but we would probably be able to sign him for only 3-4 million a year in AAV. If we wait even a year or two, you can expect that to double. Worst case scenario is we go year to year and end up paying him a 4/46 type deal like Francisco Cordero got from the Reds once he reaches free agency, or we just let him go.

Hong-Chi Kuo- Just like Broxton, Kuo was one of the best relievers in baseball last year. Unlike Broxton, Kuo can never stay healthy. Because of this, I think it would be ideal to go year to year with him for at least the next couple years to make sure you don't end up paying a considerable amount for a guy who can't pitch anymore.

Corey Wade, Eric Stults, et al-  These guys are nice to have, but not key pieces to any team. Barring Wade's luck continuing, these type guys are decent players who play for cheap and there is no reason to worry about signing them long-term. 

So looking at it, we really should only try hard to extend Martin and Broxton long term this year, with Kemp included if possible. In 2010 and 2011, we should really get the ball rolling on extending many of our players if we we want to be able to afford most of them cheaply. But keep your heads high Dodger fans, the future is bright. As this talent continues to develop and new talent filters in the ranks we should be able to field a competitive team for years to come.