It's Settlement For Either, Or Else

by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 3:10 PM PST in Payroll Comment 16 comments

The Dodgers and Andre Ethier have exchanged salary arbitration numbers today, as they were unable to come to terms (yet) on a contract like the club did with Russell Martin and Jonathan Broxton earlier in the day. Per Tony Jackson, here are the numbers:

Salary Submission
Andre Ethier	$3,750,000
Dodgers	$2,650,000

If the two sides can't come to terms on a contract before February (the midpoint is $3.2 million), both Andre Ethier and the Dodgers will have an arbitration hearing after which a 3-person arbitration panel will choose one side or the other.

It would behoove Ethier to try to settle before this gets to an arbitration hearing, because I don't think it's a hearing he can win. Ethier is a Super Two, meaning he is among the top 17% in service time of players with at least two years but less than three years service time. Either has 2 years, 153 days service time.

Let's look at some outfielders with comparable service time and performance to Ethier:

Outfielder	Year	Service Time	G	R	HR	RBI	Avg	OPS+	Salary
Andre Ethier	2009	2.153	420	190	44	196	.299	116	$2.65m/$3.75m
Alex Rios	2007	2.130	385	194	28	169	.283	97	$2,535,000
Luke Scott	2009	2.144	379	153	51	170	.266	119	$2,400,000
Mark Teahen	2008	2.155	383	208	32	184	.274	100	$2,337,500
Ryan Church	2008	2.152	347	126	35	153	.271	113	$2,000,000

When I looked at Ethier's arbitration situation earlier this month, we had fewer comps. But now, thanks to Luke Scott signing with the Orioles, the picture becomes a bit clearer.

When you look at that group above, Either is probably the best of the bunch, but not obviously so. Luke Scott has a higher OPS+ and more HR (in fewer games), and he's only going to make $2.4 million in 2009. The Dodgers' salary offer of $2.65 million would make Either the highest paid among this group of Super Two outfielders.

Either's $3.75 million submission would put him too far ahead of his peers. For his sake, he would be better off striking a deal with the club for $3.2 million or so before facing off against the buzzsaw that is Kim Ng.

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[buzzer noise]

[buzzer noise]

compare to markakis…ethier will win arb..lad lucky to get him to submit to 3.5 if he was my client

by joshburke2 on Jan 20, 2009 4:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Markakis > Ethier

I haven’t seen details of Markakis’s contract yet, other than that it is 6 years, $66m, including an option for a 7th year in 2015 with a buyout. This buys out 3 arb years and 3 free agency years at least for Markakis. We can construct a guess as to what the contract structure will be though:

signing bonus – $1m
2009: $3.5m
2010: $6m
2011: $9m
2012: $13m
2013: $15m
2014: $17m
2015: $18m option ($2.5m buyout)

This is just a guess, but that is 6/$66m. I’m guessing details are out tomorrow (he needs to pass his physical), but it won’t be much different than that.

Then, we must factor in that Markakis is better than Ethier:

WAR 2006-2008
Markakis – 2.0/3.5/5.4 (10.9 total)
Ethier – 1.7/2.1/3.6 (7.4 total)

OPS+ 2006-2008
Markakis – 106/121/134 (121 overall)
Ethier – 113/103/130 (116 overall)

Counting Stats: Runs/2B/HR/RBI/SB career
Markakis – 275/116/59/261/30
Ethier – 190/90/44/196/11

Markakis is pretty much superior to Ethier in every way, and it’s easy to construct a contract in which Markakis is paid only roughly $3.5m in 2009.

Most likely the Dodgers and Ethier will settle for somewhere near $3.2m, but if they don’t settle Ethier will lose the hearing.

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I agree; Ethier=Markakis x .9
that was my point but I think Mark will get more that 3.5 but you are more right

I also would like to see the breakdown of his contract. Your escalation figures are probably close, but I figure 3.2 is a bargain. They waited on this one because they’re unsure. Ethier to Kim Ng:

“I must break you”

by joshburke2 on Jan 20, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ethier to Ng

“I come in peace.”

Ng to Ethier:

“But you go in pieces.”

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 5:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I was damn close on the Markakis contract!

Here is the breakdown:

signing bonus: $2.1m (paid over 2009-2010)
2009: $3m
2010: $6.75m
2011: $10.25m
2012: $12m
2013: $15m
2014: $15m
2015: $17.5m mutual option ($2m buyout)

Since the MLB spreads the signing bonus over the life of the contract for calculating luxury tax and official salary, Markakis’s 2009 salary is $3m + $350k = $3.35m.

If anything, this helps the Dodgers’ case, since Markakis > Ethier. Still, I bet Ethier and the Dodgers settle before the hearing.

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ng

Love the buzzsaw reference. Kim Ng is like Ping’s lawyer from Seinfeld. “They call her the terminator, she never lose a case!”

by Reflections of Blue on Jan 20, 2009 4:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Clean

look out for flying cd’s

lol

by joshburke2 on Jan 20, 2009 5:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts on Jeff Francouer asking for $3.9 million? That’s more than what McCann’s going to make this year.

by Tripon on Jan 20, 2009 9:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Frenchy Should Surrender

There’s no way Francoeur will win his arbitration case if it goes to a hearing.

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 10:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

But He's not worth $2.8 million either.

I know the difference between Fancouer and Ethier is Frenchy’s extra year of service time, but Franceour’s easily the inferior player. The guy’s already playing with house money, unless he’s settles, franceour might as well if he can fleece another 1.2 million from the Braves.

by Tripon on Jan 20, 2009 10:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's why I think he should settle

He has something close to a zero chance of winning if he sees the inside of an arbitration hearing, so better to try to get $550,000 or so more by splitting the distance with Boston.

What about Willy Aybar? He and the Rays are only $150k apart ($900 / $1.05m) but the Rays have a policy that if the two sides can’t agree on a contract before the submission day they will go to a hearing. Seems like an easy move to just split such a small difference.

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 10:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why do you think they have that policy?

Doesn’t seem to make much sense.

Franceour shouldn’t even make more than one million, with the way he played last year.

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 21, 2009 1:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, the Don Newcombe interview is up on AM-570 website. You can stream it, or download a .mp3 version.

http://www.am570radio.com/pages/podcasting/

by Tripon on Jan 20, 2009 9:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Offer made to Ethier

Comparisons might be odious, but I find it hard to understand the discrepancy between what was offered to Russell Martin and what to Andre Ethier. Ethier hit for a higher average, hit with more power, and played his position equally well. His many assists points to a very accurate arm. I don’t wish to tear Russell down, so let me return to my original point: there’s too much daylight between Russell’s new salary and Andre’s. They should be closer together.

by camilli on Jan 21, 2009 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Ummm...

Good-hitting outfielders are much, much easier to find than good-hitting catchers. Martin is damned near irreplaceable. That’s why his value and salary is higher.

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs