It's Settlement For Either, Or Else
by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 3:10 PM PST
in Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll
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PrintThe Dodgers and Andre Ethier have exchanged salary arbitration numbers today, as they were unable to come to terms (yet) on a contract like the club did with Russell Martin and Jonathan Broxton earlier in the day. Per Tony Jackson, here are the numbers:
| Salary Submission | |
| Andre Ethier | $3,750,000 |
| Dodgers | $2,650,000 |
If the two sides can't come to terms on a contract before February (the midpoint is $3.2 million), both Andre Ethier and the Dodgers will have an arbitration hearing after which a 3-person arbitration panel will choose one side or the other.
It would behoove Ethier to try to settle before this gets to an arbitration hearing, because I don't think it's a hearing he can win. Ethier is a Super Two, meaning he is among the top 17% in service time of players with at least two years but less than three years service time. Either has 2 years, 153 days service time.
Let's look at some outfielders with comparable service time and performance to Ethier:
| Outfielder | Year | Service Time | G | R | HR | RBI | Avg | OPS+ | Salary |
| Andre Ethier | 2009 | 2.153 | 420 | 190 | 44 | 196 | .299 | 116 | $2.65m/$3.75m |
| Alex Rios | 2007 | 2.130 | 385 | 194 | 28 | 169 | .283 | 97 | $2,535,000 |
| Luke Scott | 2009 | 2.144 | 379 | 153 | 51 | 170 | .266 | 119 | $2,400,000 |
| Mark Teahen | 2008 | 2.155 | 383 | 208 | 32 | 184 | .274 | 100 | $2,337,500 |
| Ryan Church | 2008 | 2.152 | 347 | 126 | 35 | 153 | .271 | 113 | $2,000,000 |
When I looked at Ethier's arbitration situation earlier this month, we had fewer comps. But now, thanks to Luke Scott signing with the Orioles, the picture becomes a bit clearer.
When you look at that group above, Either is probably the best of the bunch, but not obviously so. Luke Scott has a higher OPS+ and more HR (in fewer games), and he's only going to make $2.4 million in 2009. The Dodgers' salary offer of $2.65 million would make Either the highest paid among this group of Super Two outfielders.
Either's $3.75 million submission would put him too far ahead of his peers. For his sake, he would be better off striking a deal with the club for $3.2 million or so before facing off against the buzzsaw that is Kim Ng.
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[buzzer noise]
[buzzer noise]
compare to markakis…ethier will win arb..lad lucky to get him to submit to 3.5 if he was my client
Markakis > Ethier
I haven’t seen details of Markakis’s contract yet, other than that it is 6 years, $66m, including an option for a 7th year in 2015 with a buyout. This buys out 3 arb years and 3 free agency years at least for Markakis. We can construct a guess as to what the contract structure will be though:
signing bonus – $1m
2009: $3.5m
2010: $6m
2011: $9m
2012: $13m
2013: $15m
2014: $17m
2015: $18m option ($2.5m buyout)
This is just a guess, but that is 6/$66m. I’m guessing details are out tomorrow (he needs to pass his physical), but it won’t be much different than that.
Then, we must factor in that Markakis is better than Ethier:
WAR 2006-2008
Markakis – 2.0/3.5/5.4 (10.9 total)
Ethier – 1.7/2.1/3.6 (7.4 total)
OPS+ 2006-2008
Markakis – 106/121/134 (121 overall)
Ethier – 113/103/130 (116 overall)
Counting Stats: Runs/2B/HR/RBI/SB career
Markakis – 275/116/59/261/30
Ethier – 190/90/44/196/11
Markakis is pretty much superior to Ethier in every way, and it’s easy to construct a contract in which Markakis is paid only roughly $3.5m in 2009.
Most likely the Dodgers and Ethier will settle for somewhere near $3.2m, but if they don’t settle Ethier will lose the hearing.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions
yeah
I agree; Ethier=Markakis x .9
that was my point but I think Mark will get more that 3.5 but you are more right
I also would like to see the breakdown of his contract. Your escalation figures are probably close, but I figure 3.2 is a bargain. They waited on this one because they’re unsure. Ethier to Kim Ng:
“I must break you”
Ethier to Ng
“I come in peace.”
Ng to Ethier:
“But you go in pieces.”
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 5:31 PM PST up reply actions
I was damn close on the Markakis contract!
Here is the breakdown:
signing bonus: $2.1m (paid over 2009-2010)
2009: $3m
2010: $6.75m
2011: $10.25m
2012: $12m
2013: $15m
2014: $15m
2015: $17.5m mutual option ($2m buyout)
Since the MLB spreads the signing bonus over the life of the contract for calculating luxury tax and official salary, Markakis’s 2009 salary is $3m + $350k = $3.35m.
If anything, this helps the Dodgers’ case, since Markakis > Ethier. Still, I bet Ethier and the Dodgers settle before the hearing.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions
Ng
Love the buzzsaw reference. Kim Ng is like Ping’s lawyer from Seinfeld. “They call her the terminator, she never lose a case!”
by Reflections of Blue on Jan 20, 2009 4:54 PM PST reply actions
Thoughts on Jeff Francouer asking for $3.9 million? That’s more than what McCann’s going to make this year.
Frenchy Should Surrender
There’s no way Francoeur will win his arbitration case if it goes to a hearing.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 10:24 PM PST up reply actions
But He's not worth $2.8 million either.
I know the difference between Fancouer and Ethier is Frenchy’s extra year of service time, but Franceour’s easily the inferior player. The guy’s already playing with house money, unless he’s settles, franceour might as well if he can fleece another 1.2 million from the Braves.
That's why I think he should settle
He has something close to a zero chance of winning if he sees the inside of an arbitration hearing, so better to try to get $550,000 or so more by splitting the distance with Boston.
What about Willy Aybar? He and the Rays are only $150k apart ($900 / $1.05m) but the Rays have a policy that if the two sides can’t agree on a contract before the submission day they will go to a hearing. Seems like an easy move to just split such a small difference.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 20, 2009 10:39 PM PST up reply actions
Why do you think they have that policy?
Doesn’t seem to make much sense.
Franceour shouldn’t even make more than one million, with the way he played last year.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 21, 2009 1:02 AM PST up reply actions
Offer made to Ethier
Comparisons might be odious, but I find it hard to understand the discrepancy between what was offered to Russell Martin and what to Andre Ethier. Ethier hit for a higher average, hit with more power, and played his position equally well. His many assists points to a very accurate arm. I don’t wish to tear Russell down, so let me return to my original point: there’s too much daylight between Russell’s new salary and Andre’s. They should be closer together.
Ummm...
Good-hitting outfielders are much, much easier to find than good-hitting catchers. Martin is damned near irreplaceable. That’s why his value and salary is higher.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
re:
So is Ummm… the trademark before you politely disagree with a post?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
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