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Markakis Contract Suprisingly No Help to Ethier

After yesterday's analysis of Andre Ethier's pending arbitration case (hint: Ethier should settle), another comparable entered the fray.  The Baltimore Orioles signed Nick Markakis to a 6 year, $66.1 million contract extension, which on the surface seems like it should have Ethier licking his lips.  However, as you will soon see, this contract actually helps the Dodgers' case.

Let's look at how Markakis and Ethier compare on the field:

2008
Player 2B HR SB R RBI BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
Nick Markakis    
48 20 10 106 87 .306 .406 .491 134 5.4
Andre Ethier 38 20 6 90 77 .305 .375 .510 130 3.6

 

Career
Player 2B HR SB R RBI BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
Nick Markakis    
116 59 30 275 261 .299 .375 .476 121 10.9
Andre Ethier 90 44 11 190 196 .299 .364 .482 116 7.4

It looks to me like Markakis is and has been the better player.  Not overwhelmingly so, but better nonetheless. Markakis just signed a contract for $66 million (covered ably by our friends at Camden Chat).  How could this possibly mean anything other than great things for Ethier?  Well, let's look further into Markakis's contract.  Here's how the money is spread out:

Signing Bonus: $2.1m (paid over 2009-2010)
2009: $3m
2010: $6.75m
2011: $10.25m
2012: $12m
2013: $15m
2014: $15m
2015: $17.5m mutual option ($2m buyout)

Markakis has 3 years service time, just ahead of the 2 years, 153 days for Ethier.  Since MLB spreads the signing bonus over the life of the contract in its calculations, we must add $350,000 to each year of the contract for comparative purposes.  Thus, Markakis's 2009 salary is $3.35 million.

The Dodgers offered $2.65 million, and Ethier countered with a request of $3.75 million.  The midpoint is $3.2 million, and for arbitration purposes, that is the figure both sides will try to argue against.  Markakis has a higher OPS+, higher WAR, and has more service time than Ethier.  There's no way Ethier should be making more than Markakis in 2009, based on past performance.

Yet another reason Ethier should settle rather than go to arbitration.

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But then Ethier can point to Jeff Francouer’s contract, and say, “I really should get more money than that slob!” And then everyone will have a good laugh.

by Tripon on Jan 21, 2009 8:10 PM PST reply actions  

Not sure I like your logic/math

If MLB rules apply the bonus evenly over the contract, then those same rules apply the average salary as each year’s salary. That is, MLB does not distinguish a $66M/6y contract structured as $60M bonus paid on day one, and $1M/year for 6 years from a $66M/6y contract paid at $11M a year for 6 years.

You are choosing to divorce the terms of the deal on the bonus, but then not divorcing the terms of the deal as to annual salary. By doing so you have created a worst possible scenario for Either. You either need to view this as an $11/year deal in 2009 or view it as a $3M + payable portion of bonus in 2009 deal for 2009.

Even done your way, however, I don’t see the Markakis comparison nearly so bad as you do for Ethier. Firstly, you are using WAR, an offense only Stat unlikely to be considered by arbitrators. They have nearly identical career and 2008 BA and are very close on OPS. Defensively, Ethier can make a decent case for being a wash. The best case for Markakis being significantly better is that Ethier is apx. 1.5 years older.

I am not saying this is a slam dunk for Ethier by any means, but I think given that the midpoint is below Markakis also adds to Ethier’s chances.

If what you are saying is that Ethier has a hard case to make, I agree. But there is a case there and I don’t see Markakis as hurting it. It would still benefit both parties to settle this.

by Paul Scott on Jan 21, 2009 10:06 PM PST reply actions  

Grr, need an edit function

… WAR, an offense only Stat… was a combination of two thoughts. WAR DOES consider defense. I’ll suggest both that arbitration likely focuses mostly on offense and uses more traditional statistics not requiring defining replacement level nor requiring quantification of defense into runs.

by Paul Scott on Jan 21, 2009 10:14 PM PST reply actions  

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Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
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RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

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IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $8,500,000 arb
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 37 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$114,662,432

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27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
60 Matt Chico lhp
29
35 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
62 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
33 Josh Fields 3b 29
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56 Cory Sullivan of 32

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