You Sending The Wolf? Shoot, That's All You Had to Say
by Eric Stephen on Jan 22, 2009 8:12 PM PST
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PrintThe Dodgers are interested in bringing in starting pitcher Randy Wolf, who pitched decently enough for them for half a season in 2006. While I would prefer Ben Sheets in Dodger Blue, I am somewhat comforted by this excerpt from Ken Rosenthal's FoxSports.com report:
The Astros sought to retain Wolf, but he rejected their three-year, $28.5 million offer, according to sources. He is not expected to command nearly as much from the Dodgers.
At least Wolf's contract won't be an albatross. Still, I can't help but thinking it won't be all that different than what Ben Sheets is going to get. This report from MetsBlog on Monday noted the MLB Network's Tom Verducci mentioned Sheets was looking for a deal of roughly two years, $18 million plus incentives and an option for a third year.
If the money for Sheets and Wolf are roughly the same, which pitcher would you rather have? Here are the 2009 projections for each (per Fangraphs):
| Pitcher | Bill James | Marcel | CHONE |
| Randy Wolf |
195 IP, 4.38 FIP | 165 IP, 4.22 FIP | 122 IP, 4.55 FIP |
| Ben Sheets | 186 IP, 3.46 FIP | 173 IP, 3.61 FIP | 148 IP, 3.84 FIP |
Sheets is clearly the better pitcher, and actually has a better health record than Wolf. So if they cost roughly the same amount of money, the only real cost difference I can see between the two is the scarlet "Type A" stuck on Sheet's chest. If the Dodgers sign Sheets, they lose their first round draft pick, the 17th pick. By signing Wolf, they don't lose any draft pick.
I can't fault the philosophy behind not wanting to lose the first rounder, but it seems to me Sheets is a good enough pitcher, at a cheap enough price, to make it worth the risk.
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17 is back luck anyway
The Celtics won their 17th title in 2008. That number is tainted. :)
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 23, 2009 12:34 AM PST up reply actions
We keep losing
Our first poll gave us Randy Johnson as Option number one followed by Sheets. Our 2nd poll minus Johnson and Sheets gave us Pettite. So of course we will get Wolf. I don’t mind Wolf but if costs are close I find it strange that they just don’t go for the best pitcher. They both have had health history’s and Wolf’s recent history actually involved major surgery. I mean we are talking the 17th pick which I’ll take a look at in a second.
The other strange news is that we are in on Russ Springer. Springer has been good two years in a row but lousy before that. As with some relief pitchers previous history does not predicate future performance. Whatever the expectations are with Springer why would we need Mota and Springer? Maybe they really are going to transition Troncoso to the rotation which means he will probably be starting in AAA instead of the Major league rotation.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Given the health risk of both players involved, I’m inclined to keep the draft pick, especially considering the Dodger’s talent at drafting. Sheets certainly is better, but he still gets injured more than I would like.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on Jan 23, 2009 10:39 AM PST reply actions
re:
What talent is that lately? Kershaw dropped into Logan’s lap. If he hadn’t it is well known he was prepared to draft Bryan Morris in Kershaw’s spot. Not exactly a great pick given that Morris then lasted all the way to our next pick and blew out his arm before logging many innings. 2008 looks good so far but 2005/2006/2007 are not exactly indicators that Logan still has it. How many scouting directors can keep a hot streak like his going? He’s living off his past drafts not any current drafts.
Last three number one’s not including Kershaw:
Morris – Blew out his arm, came back with control issues. Now on Pirates, was unable to pitch for Pirates after being traded due to other health issues.
Withrow – It is now 2009 and he’s yet to throw 20 professional innings.
Martin – first thing he did was injure his knee. This year we will see what all the hoopla is about.
Mattingly – supplemental first round is still in low A ball after three professional seasons. That is not big deal the big deal is that has been lousy while playing the with children.
James Adkins – supplemental first round. Does he have a future any more then a number 5 starter or a relief pitcher?
If any of those even sniff a Sheets season we’d be happy.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 23, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
Well put, but that’s the nature of the draft; a lot of busts (although, Martin’s knee injury was relatively minor). That doesn’t mean we should be giving up a draft pick unless we have a pretty good idea of what we’re getting in return. That’s the problem with Ben Sheets; I’m just worried about which Ben Sheets we get. He’s worth the draft pick if he can throw 200 IP, which he pretty much did last year, but not if he’s throwing half that. I think the assumption people are making is that Sheets will be healthy, so why not sign him? I agree with Will Carroll that health is a skill, and it’s one people always overlook. I would be happy to see the signing, of course, because of his ability, but it’s not something I would strongly advocate.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on Jan 23, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
re:
I would actually be happy with 150 innings of Sheets. Maybe he goes Driefort on us, but the difference is that it looks like the most he can get is a two year deal. I’d totally back away from Sheets on anything more then two years. I actually don’t know why I’m even wasting time talking about Sheets since he does appear to be on our radar at all. That is what is frustrating.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
It’s at least something Colletti should be exploring, especially if he’s going after Randy Wolf.
Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.
by Tango and Cash on Jan 23, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions
Vote of Sheets
If it comes down to Sheets and Wolf.
Sheets can be outstanding. An ace. Not wolf. And one ace pitcher in this division could be the difference. I’d say Sheets is worth the risk (especially seeing as how Wolf is as much of a risk) so go with the better guy—as long as the money is reasonable. And Sheets would be a significant upgrade from what R. Johnson, or Pettit would have been—for nearly as much money? Go for it.
We got Garland.
You can have Wolf.
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
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