Young McDonald Better on the Farm?

by Eric Stephen on Jan 27, 2009 8:09 PM PST in News Comment 14 comments

The Dodgers are going to begin the 2009 season with top prospect James McDonald relieving rather than starting, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. McDonald has started almost exclusively the last three years in the minors, making 73 of his 83 appearances as a starter. McDonald left a strong impression in September and October of 2008, pitching a total of 11.2 scoreless innings. However impressive those performances were, McDonald rarely pitched in a meaningful spot.

When McDonald Entered 2008 Games
Date	Game Status
Sept 17	down 15-7
Sept 19	down 7-0
Sept 23	up 10-1
Sept 26	up 2-0
NLCS Game 2	down 8-2
NLCS Game 5	down 5-0

Out of six games, the only time McDonald entered a game with a lead or deficit of less than 5 runs was on the final weekend of the year in San Francisco, when McDonald entered in the 4th inning of a game the Dodgers were simply using to get their starters some work before the playoffs.

I'm not saying this invalidates McDonald's performance, but let's not go crazy over this small sampling of games before we remove him from his rightful place in the rotation. I can sort of understand the Dodgers wanting to limit the innings of a young pitcher, but McDonald -- who threw 152.1 innings in 2008 -- is already 24. I'm not sure how conservative they need to be.

I was a little disturbed by this quote from pitching coach Rick Honeycutt in Gurnick's column:

"We're hoping to do what we did with Chad a few years ago,"

I certainly hope this doesn't mean McDonald will have to wait until late June to crack the rotation like Chad Billingsley did in 2007. I also hope Randy Wolf and Claudio Vargas combine for slighly better than the 30 combined starts of Mark Hendrickson and Brett Tomko (combined 78 ERA+).

But this isn't so much about McDonald not being in the starting rotation, at least to start the season, because we know he will eventually be in the rotation, and I'm confident it will be sometime in 2009. The club has three off days in April, and they won't need a 5th starter until April 25 at the earliest, so perhaps holding McDonald back isn't so bad after all.

However, it would be nice to see him starting everyday in Albuquerque rather than getting mop-up time in the Dodger bullpen. That way, he won't have to build back up his arm strength when it's time for him to finally enter the rotation. And trust me, given the current roster and projected acquisitions, McDonald's time will come soon enough.

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Hmmm

He may very well be better suited to the bullpen then the rotation. He looked so good to us because his velocity increased by 4 MPH working out of the bullpen. Some scouts are not sold he’s anything more then a number 4/5 in the rotation. If he can be a bullpen stud instead of a mediocre starter then maybe the bullpen is the best place for him.

This is not Billingsley or Kershaw, he’s a top pitching prospect by default not because of outstanding tools. Not saying I wouldn’t give him a shot at the rotation but I wouldn’t be surprised if he struggled and eventually found his way back to the bullpen anyway.

Once we sign Wolf, we will have Schmidt, Stults, Vargas, and it sounds like Troncoso vying for the 5th spot. I’d rather have McDonald helping us this year in the bullpen then pitching in a AAA rotation.

Between Troncoso, Elbert, and McDonald we have three pitchers who could go either way. If it was me I’d want McDonald in my bullpen while Troncoso and Elbert get some starts in AAA.

Unless of course one of the three takes the 5th spot in the rotation.

by meercatjohn on Jan 27, 2009 9:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

He was long relieving with ample rest between

appearances. I can guaranteed you that McDonald won’t look as fresh if he pitches back to back days as a reliever.

Like I said at DT, we have two open rotation spots this year, while Billingsley had to fight Tomko and Hendrickson in a full rotation. Again, not that McDonald should be guaranteed a spot, but he should get first crack at it, among others.

by Tripon on Jan 27, 2009 9:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

re:

How do we have two open spots? Do you think we won’t sign another starter?

by meercatjohn on Jan 27, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We have two open spots right now.

True, its likely the Dodgers will sign a veteran starter on the FA market, but that still leaves a spot open for McDonald, or Troncoso.

If the Dodgers do move McDonald to the pen, I hope it means that they think Troncoso can start. Signing a pitcher like Garland and Wolf in the same off season will not make me happy.

by Tripon on Jan 27, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

I don’t see that happening. Just one FA signing which leaves one spot for all the players I mentioned above.

by meercatjohn on Jan 27, 2009 9:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ned is stupid

This is exactly like 07 (granted McDonald does not have the talent of Billz, but still). This FO drives me absolutely nuts.

by JLS23 on Jan 27, 2009 10:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

re:

Don’t understand the complaint related to this. If Billingsley had pitched all of 2007 in the rotation he’d have gone way over the innings threshold from year to year. Other then dicking around with him in the rain game last year I think Dodger management has handled Chad perfectly.

by meercatjohn on Jan 27, 2009 11:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Innings Threshold in 2007 much higher

Here are Chad’s IP year by year:

2004: 134
2005: 147
2006: 163 (incl playoffs)
2007: 147
2008: 212.1 (incl playoffs)

In 2007, Chad should have been able to pitch in the 180-190 range easily, rather than the 147 he did pitch.

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 27, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He was over anyway eventually...

If they were so concerned about innings, they wouldn’t jump him like 60 or 70 innings in one year either.

by kensai on Jan 28, 2009 4:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Results speak loudly to me. Chad has so far escaped any arm problems. One thing I find constant with those who complain about Dodger management. When things go right they are lucky, when mistakes are made they are stupid. If Chad had been allowed to pitch all of 2007 in the rotation and developed arm problems you can bet the same people who complained about him being used in the bullpen 1st would have been the first to complain that we didn’t take proper care of our best pitching prospect.

by meercatjohn on Jan 28, 2009 8:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So

We have no shortage of arms for the bullpen, two open spots in the rotation and we’re pushing our most promising rookie starter to the pen. I’m not sure why compaining isn’t warranted.

by JLS23 on Jan 28, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

If we put McDonald into the rotation to start the year how many innings do you think he would rack up by Aug 15th? Should we just shut him down at the point? Will he be toast and useless during the pennant race? How many rookies who start in the rotation are still effective come Sept? Time for a study I think, I may be blowing smoke out my ass but my common sense tell me this:

If we start the season with Kershaw and McDonald both in the rotation I wouldn’t be expecting much from them come Sept if they pitched all year. McDonald has never pitched in Sept other then the six innings he threw last year.

by meercatjohn on Jan 28, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you think

they are putting McD in the pen solely to limit his innnigs? Because that doesn’t seem to be the case.

by JLS23 on Jan 28, 2009 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Young McDonald fresh off the farm

The model used to develop Billingsley is a good one – the results speak.
McDonald will morph into the 5th starter just before the All-Star break.
That is my prediction for the day.

by 68elcamino427 on Jan 27, 2009 11:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos	No	Player	2010 Salary
C	55	Martin	$5,050,000
1B	7	Loney	$3,100,000
2B	33	DeWitt	$410,000*
3B	23	Blake	$6,000,000
SS	15	Furcal	$8,500,000
LF	99	Manny	$7,267,760
CF	27	Kemp	$4,000,000
RF	16	Ethier	$6,000,000

2B/3B	14	Carroll	$1,350,000
2B/3B/1B	3	Belliard	$825,000
C	12	Ausmus	$850,000
OF	5	Johnson	$800,000
SS	60	Hu	$405,000*

SP	22	Kershaw	$425,000*
SP	58	Billingsley	$3,850,000
SP	18	Kuroda	$14,100,000
SP	44	Padilla	$4,025,000
SP	50	Stults	$405,000*

CL	51	Broxton	$4,000,000
LHP	52	Sherrill	$4,500,000
LHP	56	Kuo	$950,000
RHP	67	Troncoso	$425,000*
RHP	54	Belisario	$425,000*
RHP	31	McDonald	$425,000*
RHP	68	Monasterios	$460,000*

		Pierre	$4,000,000
		Andruw	$3,600,000
		Schmidt	$2,000,000
		Wolf	$2,000,000
		Hudson	$1,440,000
		Nomar	$1,250,000
		Ohman	$200,000
		Zerpa	$35,000
		Hoffmann	($50,000)

Others on 40-man roster (total: 39)
RHP	37	Haeger
RHP	73	Link
RHP	47	Wade
C	9	Ellis
C	71	May
SS	87	DeJesus
OF	75	Paul
OF	17	Repko	$500,000
RHP	64	Guerra**
RHP	74	Jansen**
LHP	59	Leach**
RHP	49	Schlichting**
LHP	57	Elbert**
OF	62	Robinson**

Totals			$93,522,760
Red = arbitration Asterisk () = estimated * = currently in minor league camp
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