Young McDonald Better on the Farm?
by Eric Stephen on Jan 27, 2009 8:09 PM PST
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PrintThe Dodgers are going to begin the 2009 season with top prospect James McDonald relieving rather than starting, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. McDonald has started almost exclusively the last three years in the minors, making 73 of his 83 appearances as a starter. McDonald left a strong impression in September and October of 2008, pitching a total of 11.2 scoreless innings. However impressive those performances were, McDonald rarely pitched in a meaningful spot.
| When McDonald Entered 2008 Games | |
| Date | Game Status |
| Sept 17 | down 15-7 |
| Sept 19 | down 7-0 |
| Sept 23 | up 10-1 |
| Sept 26 | up 2-0 |
| NLCS Game 2 | down 8-2 |
| NLCS Game 5 | down 5-0 |
Out of six games, the only time McDonald entered a game with a lead or deficit of less than 5 runs was on the final weekend of the year in San Francisco, when McDonald entered in the 4th inning of a game the Dodgers were simply using to get their starters some work before the playoffs.
I'm not saying this invalidates McDonald's performance, but let's not go crazy over this small sampling of games before we remove him from his rightful place in the rotation. I can sort of understand the Dodgers wanting to limit the innings of a young pitcher, but McDonald -- who threw 152.1 innings in 2008 -- is already 24. I'm not sure how conservative they need to be.
I was a little disturbed by this quote from pitching coach Rick Honeycutt in Gurnick's column:
"We're hoping to do what we did with Chad a few years ago,"
I certainly hope this doesn't mean McDonald will have to wait until late June to crack the rotation like Chad Billingsley did in 2007. I also hope Randy Wolf and Claudio Vargas combine for slighly better than the 30 combined starts of Mark Hendrickson and Brett Tomko (combined 78 ERA+).
But this isn't so much about McDonald not being in the starting rotation, at least to start the season, because we know he will eventually be in the rotation, and I'm confident it will be sometime in 2009. The club has three off days in April, and they won't need a 5th starter until April 25 at the earliest, so perhaps holding McDonald back isn't so bad after all.
However, it would be nice to see him starting everyday in Albuquerque rather than getting mop-up time in the Dodger bullpen. That way, he won't have to build back up his arm strength when it's time for him to finally enter the rotation. And trust me, given the current roster and projected acquisitions, McDonald's time will come soon enough.
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Hmmm
He may very well be better suited to the bullpen then the rotation. He looked so good to us because his velocity increased by 4 MPH working out of the bullpen. Some scouts are not sold he’s anything more then a number 4/5 in the rotation. If he can be a bullpen stud instead of a mediocre starter then maybe the bullpen is the best place for him.
This is not Billingsley or Kershaw, he’s a top pitching prospect by default not because of outstanding tools. Not saying I wouldn’t give him a shot at the rotation but I wouldn’t be surprised if he struggled and eventually found his way back to the bullpen anyway.
Once we sign Wolf, we will have Schmidt, Stults, Vargas, and it sounds like Troncoso vying for the 5th spot. I’d rather have McDonald helping us this year in the bullpen then pitching in a AAA rotation.
Between Troncoso, Elbert, and McDonald we have three pitchers who could go either way. If it was me I’d want McDonald in my bullpen while Troncoso and Elbert get some starts in AAA.
Unless of course one of the three takes the 5th spot in the rotation.
He was long relieving with ample rest between
appearances. I can guaranteed you that McDonald won’t look as fresh if he pitches back to back days as a reliever.
Like I said at DT, we have two open rotation spots this year, while Billingsley had to fight Tomko and Hendrickson in a full rotation. Again, not that McDonald should be guaranteed a spot, but he should get first crack at it, among others.
We have two open spots right now.
True, its likely the Dodgers will sign a veteran starter on the FA market, but that still leaves a spot open for McDonald, or Troncoso.
If the Dodgers do move McDonald to the pen, I hope it means that they think Troncoso can start. Signing a pitcher like Garland and Wolf in the same off season will not make me happy.
re:
I don’t see that happening. Just one FA signing which leaves one spot for all the players I mentioned above.
Ned is stupid
This is exactly like 07 (granted McDonald does not have the talent of Billz, but still). This FO drives me absolutely nuts.
re:
Don’t understand the complaint related to this. If Billingsley had pitched all of 2007 in the rotation he’d have gone way over the innings threshold from year to year. Other then dicking around with him in the rain game last year I think Dodger management has handled Chad perfectly.
by meercatjohn on Jan 27, 2009 11:16 PM PST up reply actions
Innings Threshold in 2007 much higher
Here are Chad’s IP year by year:
2004: 134
2005: 147
2006: 163 (incl playoffs)
2007: 147
2008: 212.1 (incl playoffs)
In 2007, Chad should have been able to pitch in the 180-190 range easily, rather than the 147 he did pitch.
-Eric
by Eric Stephen on Jan 27, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
He was over anyway eventually...
If they were so concerned about innings, they wouldn’t jump him like 60 or 70 innings in one year either.
by Chad Moriyama on Jan 28, 2009 4:10 AM PST up reply actions
re:
Results speak loudly to me. Chad has so far escaped any arm problems. One thing I find constant with those who complain about Dodger management. When things go right they are lucky, when mistakes are made they are stupid. If Chad had been allowed to pitch all of 2007 in the rotation and developed arm problems you can bet the same people who complained about him being used in the bullpen 1st would have been the first to complain that we didn’t take proper care of our best pitching prospect.
So
We have no shortage of arms for the bullpen, two open spots in the rotation and we’re pushing our most promising rookie starter to the pen. I’m not sure why compaining isn’t warranted.
re:
If we put McDonald into the rotation to start the year how many innings do you think he would rack up by Aug 15th? Should we just shut him down at the point? Will he be toast and useless during the pennant race? How many rookies who start in the rotation are still effective come Sept? Time for a study I think, I may be blowing smoke out my ass but my common sense tell me this:
If we start the season with Kershaw and McDonald both in the rotation I wouldn’t be expecting much from them come Sept if they pitched all year. McDonald has never pitched in Sept other then the six innings he threw last year.
by meercatjohn on Jan 28, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
Do you think
they are putting McD in the pen solely to limit his innnigs? Because that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Young McDonald fresh off the farm
The model used to develop Billingsley is a good one – the results speak.
McDonald will morph into the 5th starter just before the All-Star break.
That is my prediction for the day.
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