Hells Bells?

by Eric Stephen on Jan 6, 2009 11:10 PM PST Comment 16 comments

Based on various reports, the Dodgers may or may not be close to signing Trevor Hoffman. Here's what we know:

Per Barry Bloom and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, Hoffman's agent Rick Thurman said, "In the next 24-to-48 hours I think we'll have something done. If we don't have a deal done we'll have a pretty solid idea of where he's going. But I think we'll have a deal done."

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reported the Dodgers offer is for one year plus an option.

Bill Shaikin of the LA Times reported the Dodgers offer exceeds $4 million.

There is some debate as to whether the Dodgers need Trevor Hoffman. They do have a tremendous young group of pitchers, led by Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo. Fellow youngsters Cory Wade, Ramon Troncoso, Scott Elbert, and even James McDonald and/or Eric Stults figure to play a large role in the Dodger pen in 2009. Kuo's injury history, coupled with some doubt as to whether Broxton can handle the closer role, has led as to the point where the Dodgers are looking for outside help to augment their otherwise homegrown bullpen.

I'm not thrilled with giving Hoffman more than $4 million, but he has still been effective the last few years:

Year	FIP	K/9	HR/9
2006	3.49	7.14	0.94
2007	2.71	6.91	0.33
2008	3.93	9.13	1.72

The HR rate skyrocketed last year, but there's reason to believe that was just bad luck (more of his fly balls allowed ended up as HR than previous seasons). If it were up to me, I would pass on Hoffman and throw that money into the pile to be used for Manny and a starting pitcher. But signing Hoffman wouldn't be the worst thing in the world either.

After Welcome to the Jungle and Bad to the Bone blaring over the loudspeakers to start the 9th inning at Dodger Stadium, it would be weird to hear Hells Bells. I'd settle for Big, Bad John.

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Sorry, wasn't trying to steal your post, but I just posted what I thought about Hoffman at DT.

I figure I’ll just copy that post onto here:

"Question: Why does it seem people are universally against signing Trevor Hoffman? It seems that most people think he had a down year, but really this was his best year in his last four. In 2008 he had a xFIP of 3.59, which was his lowest since 2004. He also allowed the least line drives and induced the most ground balls that he has in the last five years and had a crazy good 5:1 K/BB ratio (9.9 K/G and 1.9 BB/G).

He was extremely unlucky allowing homeruns on 17.1% of flyballs (over twice his career average, MLB average is 10-11%). which accounts for the high ERA. This is mostly a luck-based stat so he should drop back down next year.

Fangraphs has Hoffman projected for a 3.5 FIP over 54 innings. In this article:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-a-relievers

Hoffman is projected to be worth about 1.75 to 1.95 wins next year as a closer, meaning he should be worth 8.5-9.5 million. If we could sign him for 5-6 million he comes as a bargain at little risk while also keeping Broxton’s arbitration numbers down. Now if his signing keeps us from getting Manny or a good starting pitcher then that changes things but given that our payroll right now is about 77 million according to Eric Stephen here:

http://www.truebluela.com/2009/1/4/708785/updated-dodger-payroll

we should be able to get Manny, Hoffman, and a SP for 10M or so and still come in no higher than last years payroll. Basically, I think Hoffman is a good signing as long as it doesn’t keep us from filling the other needs (Manny and a SP)."

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 6, 2009 11:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

Thanks for that, especially the link to the Fan Graphs article.

Another reason to like a Hoffman signing is that it will really chap the hide of Padre fans. :)

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 7, 2009 12:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, no problem.

That would be a nice side benefit! :)

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 7, 2009 12:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

From a Keith Law Chat in November

Mike (San Diego): Hoffman wound’t accept the Padres’ $4 million one year offer with a club option. Do you think he can really do better on the open market?

SportsNation Keith Law: No. I think that offer amounted to charity.

Chat Link

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 7, 2009 12:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if he can do better, but he certainly should.

And I would be fairly upset if we didn’t sign Hoffman and he got less than 4 million.

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 7, 2009 12:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Shakin says the Dodgers offered Hoffman $4 million on one year.

by Tripon on Jan 7, 2009 8:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

From the Shaikin article

“The Dodgers’ offer exceeds $4 million”

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 7, 2009 8:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Takashi Hoffman

Takashi Hoffman san if you please.

by 68elcamino427 on Jan 7, 2009 2:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I like Hoffman for one more year

but I have a hard time stomaching spending 4 Million for 45 – 55 innings of work. I’d rather spend a little money on Denny Reyes and hope he doesn’t continue his on/even off/odd path. He can give you the same 45 innings for hopefully 1/3 the cost. Lefthanders had a measly .537 OPS off him last year.

I think we can safely count on Big John to handle the workload but Kuo is another matter so I’d rather bring in another LHP. Then again Elbert could probably handle the Kuo role if Kuo goes down.

Like Eric I wouldn’t be upset if Hoffman is signed but I think the money can be better spent elsewhere. Every time I see them spend money that they don’t have to, the sounds of Black Magic Woman start haunting me.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 7, 2009 11:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

RE: Black Magic Woman

I thought you were haunted by “Oy Vey Como Va”

-Eric

by Eric Stephen on Jan 7, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I forgot...

Was that Jeff Kent’s at bat music?

Paul Lo Duca is MLB's Pablo Escobar..

by DodgerBlueBalls on Jan 7, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing wrong with him either

assuming he’s cheap. Projected for 51 innings and a 4.08 FIP he comes out at 0.62 WAR, so he shouldn’t make more than 2 million or so. Hoffman is projected to be significantly better, however, you raise a point that we only have one dependable lefty as of right now, and even Kuo has health concerns.

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 7, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Dennys Reyes wants 12 million over 3 years.

by kensai on Jan 7, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Beimel and Ohman are better anyway.

by kensai on Jan 7, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

Disagree on Beimel, he was a very lucky pitcher in 2008. Haven’t done any research on Ohman.

What one wanted in November is not what one gets in January. Beimel thought he’d be rich, right about now and he’s still looking for a job.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 7, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Teacher for Broxton

The other added benefit of Hoffman is his potential benefit to the rest of the bullpen, especially Broxton. Just as Maddux was a constant source of advice to the young starters in his two stints, Hoffman would likely do the same for the promising group of Dodgers’ relievers.

by T$ on Jan 7, 2009 12:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs