Backing Into A Division Title - Game Chat
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 11:30 AM PDT
in Game Threads
258 comments
You know the story. If the Rockies lose, the Dodgers win the National League West. The Rockies can clinch a playoff spot with a win.
Aaron Cook vs. Manny Parra.
This is division match point number 8 for the Dodgers.
Here are today's lineups:
| Brewers |
Rockies | |||
| 2B | Lopez | CF | Fowler | |
| RF | Gerut | LF | Spilborghs | |
| LF | Braun | 1B | Helton | |
| 1B | Fielder | SS | Tulowitzki | |
| 3B | McGehee | 3B | Atkins | |
| CF | Cameron | C | Iannetta | |
| SS | Escobar | RF | Hawpe | |
| C | Kendall | 2B | Barmes | |
| P | Parra | P | Cook | |
0 recs |
258 comments
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Oh Lamar Odom!
ur fucking Lamar Odom
u can get anybody and u choose Klhoe???
bleh!
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 11:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There’s lots of semi tasteless jokes that I am going to refrain from posting on this one. Unless someone else starts it.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no go ahead
i dont care…
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll let someone else go first. So my tastelessness can go under the radar.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm...
“Oh Lamar Odom…ur fucking Lamar Odom”
Kinda sounds a little narrsasstic to begin with…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simulator says COL 55%, AccuScore COL 65%. Not sure why Cook is getting all this love. His stats aren’t that great and are even poor on the road.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 12:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it's just more that Parra is terrible
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cook FIP 4.58
Parra FIP 4.87
Most of Cook’s bad FIP comes on the road.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I'm not sure
Cook has had some terrible terrible patches this season. But I’d take Cook over Parra on any day in any environment.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I didn't know that
but I should have. Colorado finished 3rd last year for the first tim ever. 2nd twice. 1995 (LA first) and 2007. So yeah, makes sense
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reply fail
that was supposed to be towards the Rockies finishing better than the Dodgers just once.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Post should be renamed "Self Destructing into A Division Tittle" :)
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 12:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
wed - carpenter/wolf thu - wainwright/kuroda
is this 90% likely at this point?
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hard to tell with Kuroda not even being able to pitch on Saturday
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but he's joe's guy
best buds, like loretta
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling St. Louis is going to win today
by Dodger Dude on Oct 1, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i smell a reds comeback today
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You college guys
must get laid more then I ever did because if I was single there isn’t a girl in the photo I wouldn’t have minded waking up next to.
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think its the rest of your life part that stretches the imagination
One morning no problem.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 1, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, good point
it just seemed the disdain for them was physical not mental.
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d be troubled having Bruce Jenner as a father in law.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bruce Jenner the Decathalon Champion
is the father of them? Wow, I remember when he won his gold medal and they kept harping on his great family. That must have been a different family because they’d all be kind over 30.
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stepfather.
He’s had more work done than Joan Rivers.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But, as Larry David said, “Step counts.” :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A good point from a wise man. I agree wholeheartedly. Make it more than one of them, and throw in some earplugs, and I’d take a week of waking up next to them.
by KellyStephen on Oct 1, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You just...
might want to throw in some topical cream, too. Just to be on the safe side. And a Lobster Bib along with a shower cap…
And don’t forget about the belt sander, too!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When I graduated college I sold all that stuff.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The way things have been going i'm expecting a Brewers forfeit
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny Parra is not someone
I’d be very confident in bringing home a win today.
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 12:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He’s going to use his big game experience from facing Manny Ramirez in our Manny’s first minor league “rehab” game.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
7 wins in his last 11 starts
totally meaningless, but no dodger has come close to a stretch like that in a loooooong time… king of run support
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
K
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Helton single
it helps to have beard power….
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
oh manny...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
1-0
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
argh
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
1-0 end of 1st
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
end of the 1st...1-0
31 pitches for Parra
by Bluetrek on Oct 1, 2009 12:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
this should end well...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
is it time to go emo?
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Fielder single...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah brad hawpe is the worst right fielder (at fielding) i've ever seen
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Oct 1, 2009 12:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
1 out
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
escobar singles
fielder to 3rd
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
cmon kendall
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
sweet, hit in the shoulder
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Oct 1, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's for the books
i think he’s top 3 hbp all-time
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
come on parra!
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Oct 1, 2009 12:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what is that gameday?? an HBP?
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
carpenter already hit a GS today :)
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Oct 1, 2009 12:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
we can all go home now
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's slightly bad at the plate
even for a pitcher
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
bases loaded for parra?
this should end well
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
gameday is 2 years behind the rest of the world
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
blargen
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Parra's hitting and pitching will doom us all
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Carpenter
drove in six runs and struck out six batters. How many times has that happened in baseball?
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 12:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that automatically guarantees him the geico player of the day....
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to think
the babe ruth might have done it once in 1919
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Robert Person had that insane day at the plate a few years ago
not sure how well he pitched though (he wasn’t a memorable pitcher other than this one game.)
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Five Strikeouts, Seven Rbis
not as cool as six and six.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200206020.shtml
Nice pick by the way.
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the game El Lay Dave and I always remember
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN196607030.shtml
Two Grand Slams, Nine runs batted in, only Five Strikeouts
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, first one I would have tried
The next try is Rick Wise’s no-hitter while facing three HOFers, where he hit two HRs, but it was only 3 RBI and 3 Ks. He had another two-HR game that year, with 5 RBI and 11 Ks.
by David Young on Oct 1, 2009 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice work Parra
walk the pitcher…
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ugh walks cook on 4 pitches
anyone who complains about Kershaw should watch Manny Parra for an afternoon haha
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Oct 1, 2009 12:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
50 pitches for Parra in 2 innings
Yikes
by Bluetrek on Oct 1, 2009 12:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitch counts are for sissies
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
why in the world is jody gerut batting 2nd?
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Oct 1, 2009 12:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
weve gotta somehow hope aaron cook does worse....
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 12:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
according to the Rockies announcers
the Dodgers have finished ahead of the Rockies 15 out of 16 times
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Oct 1, 2009 12:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess I didn't know that
but I should have. Colorado finished 3rd last year for the first tim ever. 2nd twice. 1995 (LA first) and 2007. So yeah, makes sense
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2-0 rockies
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
3-0
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The brewers have proven to be almost completely useless
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
they split against the phils
that helped… sort of
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just remember what Rockies fans kept hearing from their players
when Atlanta was charging:
I’d rather be in our position than theirs
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for making Friday Night a once in a lifetime opportunity for me
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Heh
You don’t have the starting pitching advantage though :) Though it is close. It will definitely be interesting
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m expecting the Dodgers to be a -122 favorite tomorrow. I won’t run the actual numbers until later tonight though.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny Parra: i want the dodgers to clinch tomorrow...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually I think Parra was kneeling before the Rockies saying “Please sweep us”
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
bases loaded 0 outs
dream weaver where are u?
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
if parra gets out of this unscathed it will be a friggin miracle.
by DJDodger on Oct 1, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would be less likely than winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning on your way home
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hawpe AND barmes K with bases juiced?
i still believe!
by DJDodger on Oct 1, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Parra about to walk Cook
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OMG - he gets those 2 and walks cook.
#$&Q*(&#QQ)&%Q#
by DJDodger on Oct 1, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Parra's ego
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
our sanity...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
just saw the 'injury delay' on gameday
hoping for something involving an asteroid and tulo, guess not
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A win by Colorado today
Would drop the Dodgers chances for winning the NL West from 95.08% down to 92.43% based on how I have handicapped the remaining three games.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you have a link to your handicap?
And who is starting Sunday?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is my original post on the subject over at Dodger Thoughts. I run actual game simulations over at my blog and post them as Fanposts every day here.
Here are my estimates on win probabilities for each game. If the pitching rotations are different than what I pulled off of ESPN then that could change things a little bit. I don’t have my simulator in front of me, so I am handicapping off the top of my head, but I’m trying to be a little on the conservative side.
MIL vs COL [COL 0.65]
COL vs LAN [Jimenez vs Wolf, LAN 0.56]
COL vs LAN [de la Rosa vs Kershaw, LAN 0.60]
COL vs LAN [Marquis vs Kuroda, LAN 0.57]
So the chances of the Dodgers NOT winning the division would be.
.65 × .44 × .40 x .43 = 0.049192 or 4.92%
or a 95.08% chance of winning the division. BPro says 94.24%, wo I guess I am in fairly good agreement with them.
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Kuroda isn't pitching, right?
how much do you weight seasonal head-to-head, home field and recent pitching performances by the starters?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if an official announcement has been made on Kuroda or not. But like I said, if the rotations change, then my numbers change.
The handicap above is just pulled out of my ass. It’s based on my vast knowledge of how baseball games are generally handicapped by vegas. I may be off by a little, but not by a lot.
Usually, I use my simulator. It plays “actual” games. So no need to weight anything. Just feed it projections, park and hfa adjust and play 50K games or more.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we make that sunday game a 50/50 game it changes the chances to 91.2%. It only drops the odds of winning the NL West by slightly over 1%.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
pecota has the current odds at 92 and change
with the rox win today, it should be a hair under 90 tomorrow.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
DL, posted on DT that the BPro had the odds currently at 94.24%
Flipping a coin the last four (inc COL/MIL game) games would put us at 93.75% and at 87.5% with three games left. Personally, I believe the Dodgers should be favored in the first two games, with the 3rd one a possible toss up depending on who pitches for us (ie – Weaver, Billingsley, Padilla, Haeger).
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
haeger?
who is this haeger guy you’re talking about?
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
is he currently hiding a pineapple
under his right knee?
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd agree with that high of a percentage
if they were robots. But Los Angeles sure is playing tight, and the Rockies are clicking…you never know
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya, xeiFrank you need to add a category for “clutch” too.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
cpi is frequently used
but hpip (heart per inning pitched) is a bit more descriptive IMO
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m too busy working on a “gritty” function. One thing at a time! :)
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
:) I understand math and the game have to be exclusive sometimes
but a sweep has to be more likely than had the Dodgers won four straight, yes?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's a fairly small sample for gambling purposes
my first guess would be that the starters’ last 5 starts are wayyy more relevant than the teams’ last 5 games.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s correct, but you would be even more correct if you’d go back and look at not only the last 5 starts, but starts from the last two calander years. Of course you weight the more recent starts much heavier than the old starts, but they are still relevant. I use a logarithmic weighting, instead of the linear 5/4/3. I am still playing around with what is the best one size fits all exponent.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so do you have any theories
as to how to project postseason performance? would you ever consider using previous postseason appearances as a differently weighted category?
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would NEVER use previous postseason appearances to predict success/failure in a current postseason. Some of the variables may be the same, ie – Manny Ramirez was on the 08 and 09 teams, but too many of the variables have changed and if you are talking about going back 5 or 10 years, then all of the variables have changed.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok, i may have misread your post as team related instead of individual related.. as in AROD is better during the season than he is in the post-season. Is that correct? No, i wouldn’t worry about previous post-season experience. I’d give it the same weighting I would to any other game that happened one, two or three years ago. Which is not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
v guerrero has also been horrible
betting against both of them in the playoffs based on a postseason choke tendency has been steady money, even if the reasoning is specious.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
just by shit luck, there are going to be a handful of good players who perform poorly over a small sample size or previous playoffs.
Take a 100 coins, flip them each 10 times. Then take the couple of coins that came up heads 9 or 10 times in a row. What are the odds that they come up heads vs tails on the 11th flip?
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's what makes gambling interesting
“But what stands out for me even more than A-Rod’s utterly pathetic on-the-field play was that strange-looking face he made in the dugout right after hitting into that death knell of a double play – that pale, hard-chewing, glazed-over, shell-shocked face. "
http://archive.recordonline.com/archive/2005/11/15/geffmlb1.htm
…and that was written at the BEGINNING of his ice-cold 50AB postseason skid.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya, it’s very entertaining. But not something I would worry at all about if trying to formulate a bet or make a serious prediction.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, if you're not a believer
i’m sure there are some a-rod and VG props out there with your name on them!
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More likely they are out there to sucker people with your train of thought, not mine.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah, but that's the temptation
if you believe that the curse is exaggerated, wouldn’t you think that VG and a-rod were god for at least 3 hits in a given alds? our superstitious numbskullery could be YOUR gain…
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tell you what, if you see one of those bets let me know. :)
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
walk the pitcher
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
wow
that’s one of the 1% of ABs where I would have done a better job as the pitcher
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Cook is actually a worldclass hitter, so I understand working around him.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Oct 1, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Working around him with the bases loaded
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said the logic was there.
Now walking Dex with the bases chalked, that’s just stupid.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Oct 1, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
this can only mean a dexter fowler grand slam...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Garret Atkins will steal home :)
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Had he been thrown a strike, perhaps
by KellyStephen on Oct 1, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he struck out barmes and walked cook
WOAT
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
he struck out hawpe and barmes and walks cook and fowler
yeah, brilliant
by DJDodger on Oct 1, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and so it continues...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
good bye manny
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the current screen is interesting
check the location of pitches 2 and 3 to fowler.
rare that gameday shows such a small zone.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_10_01_milmlb_colmlb_1
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the zone just shrunk
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess you earn your strike zone with consistency
as they say
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that and 15 or so benjamins
discretely tucked in the pocket in the parking lot two hours before gametime
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ugh
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe Odom married that gargoyle.
And Cook & Fowler are more disciplined hitters than Hawpe & Barmes so no surprises there.
You guys deserve this for blogging a game you’re not involved with. Choke on, suckas.
by ELGee on Oct 1, 2009 1:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
cook has 18 walks in 307 ABs
he’s just horrible at the plate. but I hope he beats philly! we’ll need a nice long break before the WS.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, Cook is a better hitter with that great .116 AVG
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, how stupid of us on an off day to actually care about a game that has implications for the Dodgers.
What a bunch of assholes we are.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ELGee
Make sure to turn into the Versus network tonight to watch your beloved Colorado Snowblowers lose 14-1 against the Sharks tonight!!! Hope you enjoy your hockey team finishing in 23rd place in a 15 team conference this season!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
McClung FTW
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Klhoe=WOAT
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Colorado is giving Milwaukee the business today
by Epic Phail on Oct 1, 2009 1:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
BTW
I posted some 2002-2003 prospect stuff on the other thread.
by bhsportsguy on Oct 1, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope the Rox win,
I want to clinch on our own terms. Not by default. That girls’ cool, she’s got a dope a**.
by Skunkburner on Oct 1, 2009 1:41 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
this will cheer u guys up...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obe7jpGLbhA
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
G's may pull up with 88 wins
that’s been enough to win either the nl west or nl central for much of the past decade… that’s gotta hurt
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
well, 87 is often enough
for those 2 divisions – and 88 seems much better than the g’s have been in a while.
such a waste of those young arms.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2002 Dodgers
finished 92-70 and missed the playoffs. That sucked.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is harsh
just looking – the 2 bay teams won a total of 193 games in ’03… been a while
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Parlay of the weekend
SC to cover, Colorado to win the NL West. Book em.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 2:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why would you tie the SC game to that parlay. That’s just greedy. You’d already be paid sick money just by hitting on having colorado win the divsion. Wouldn’t it be smarter to bet USC alone as a hedge?
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow, only 5
that is seriously dogged out. vegas hates sc all of a sudden. should be at least 9 after that drubbing in oregon.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
SC -9 would get way too much money thrown on Cal.
they were a top 10 team who played a terrible game. SC hasn’t looked like world beaters, and their offense doesn’t look capable of a double digit win on the road.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm the opposite of a PC fan
but there’s no way he won’t tune up the passing game this week – and SC has infinitely more talent than oregon, it shouldn’t be hard to duplicate that defensive performance
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defensively yes
I’m not sure we’re going to score like Oregon did though.
of course, the big kicker is how SC comes out Sat. after what went down this week. They’ve been terrible in practice this week apparently.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it must rattle you if you're a pre-nfl type
it sounds callous, but it was a pretty powerful illustration of why you tell a guy like PC to shove it after two (or max three) years and cash a signing bonus if you’re smart. of course, sanchez is the other side of that.
tebow really underscores that as well this year. how gullible can you get? sacrificing your nervous system for rah-rah crap… enjoy working at midas.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about Bradford and Gresham at OU?
Even worse.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are probably right mrwhite06
Leave the colorado bet as a stand alone, and then parlay SC with someone else, or leave it alone
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Imagine the panic if the Dodgers had not already at least clinched WC.
by delias man on Oct 1, 2009 2:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The key word around here would be “clenched” instead of “clinched” if that were the case. :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Seconds away from a celebration in Colorado
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, come on. They could easily beat the Phillies or Cardinals in a five game series.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers at home with a 2 game lead with 3 games to play v. the 2nd place team since 1996
1-5
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually - I think we had a 3 game lead on SD in 1996
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thx - I couldn't remember if they won by 1 game
or we tied but they won the tiebreaker.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m going to write a bit about it in the morning. That final day is the main reason why the wild card is dumb.
Short summation of my opinion:
extra playoff spot = good
wild card setup = bad
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I remember leaving the stadium pissed in '96
but only sort of pissed
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was in college in San Diego and had to hear a lot of shit about that stupid weekend. It didn’t help that both teams got swept in round 1.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was a junior in high school
and my buddy was a Giants fan (who for that week span was a Padres fan). I ended up betting him $100 on Game 1 of St L and San Diego. Little did he know that the game had started and I knew St L had scored 3 in the first. Karma bitch.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I denounce Xeifrank as a Rockie sympathizer :)
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
does anyone know
what the odds were for the Dodgers to win the division when they were up by 2 runs (or was it 3? I blocked it out already) against Pittsburgh in th 9th with a magic number of one? Mathematically speaking, if the Dodgers were to be swept by the Rockies, from the bottom of the 9th of that nightmare inning to the end of the season, I don’t think it’s an exagerration to say it would be one of the most- if not THE most- improbable events in sports history. It’d be like losing a best of 13 series when you were ahead in the series 6 to 0, and leading the 7th game in the 9th- and that doesn’t even bring the (lack of) quality of the opponents into play!
Of course, all this is going to be moot in one (two?! (THREE?!!)) days, as the Dodgers will get it together just in time to clinch, leaving all of us to collectively say to them, “Oh, you guys really had us going there!”
by sarcastro9 on Oct 1, 2009 3:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent question. The way to do it would be to take the highest WE during the ninth inning and then take the odds on xeiFranks simulator of the Dodgers losing every game and Colorado winning every game from then on out. I’m guessing the odds were so close to 0% that you would need five or six decimal points.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m calculating it right now. If my internet connection was faster I’d be done. :)
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m going to multiply the highest WE during that game by .995, which is probably pretty close to what our Pecota chances of winning the division were on that day.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Approximate answer is…
1 – ( .005 × .034)
= 99.983% chance of winning the division.
if my .995 number is off then it changes the answer slightly.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and to put it in terms of a baseball game. It’s about the same odds as being ahead with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning, with no runners on base and you are leading by six runs…. and you LOSE the game!
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
I was afraid I’d be lambasted just for asking, but given what we’ve ALREADY seen- not just from the Dodgers, but from the Rockies, as well- I think it’s at least worth considering!
by sarcastro9 on Oct 1, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if the Rockies are going to alter their rotation at all?
I’d guess no – winning the division and getting St. Louis would be huge for them, they own the Card this year.
Even then – is the WC all that bad for us? I’m not sure – it would mean Philly over St. Louis, and I’d prefer St. Louis.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No it's not that bad
I just don’t want Eric to take grief for his “the division race is over” post.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately, there is no way this doesn't happen. :)
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
by Bryce on Oct 1, 2009 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Well, Sometimes you have to roll up your sleeves and do the job yourself (clinching) instead of relying on incompetent lackeys (Brewers).
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 3:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Did A. Martinez just say that the Dodgers lack “Heart”?
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 3:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Even though I love Journey, I wouldn’t object to some “Heart” in the 8th inning at Dodger Stadium.
“How do I get you alone (in first place).”
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oooooooooohh!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
Heart went all Aerosmith in the 80’s with their ballads and stuff. My buddy and I have been arguing for like 12 years over whether or not Barracuda is a good song.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
late 70s heart is awesome
sexy back in the day, too
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pre carb Ann was pretty hot. Then Nancy showed up one day in a video with huge knockers…who knew? Ahhh…the good old days of girl band rock!
BTW…Nancy married to Cameron Crow for 20+ years.
by KellyStephen on Oct 1, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course
she was the one that made ‘almost famous’ a decent flick – spotlighting a great jam like ’that’s the way’ was pure nancy
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he said it this morning too
was blabbing about some text message he sent siciliano and thompson last night after the dodgers lost…he also said the team is comprised of a bunch of entitled kids. asshole.
by DJDodger on Oct 1, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are we excited? Yes. Do I like where this team is headed? Yes.
Am I happy for Colorado giving me this opportunity? Of course.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, me too- seriously
No matter what people say about how the regular season “doesn’t matter” once the playoffs start, I think there’d be a world of difference if the Dodgers go in with them a) clinching at home b) on the field, instead of watching a TV in the clubhouse and c) against the ROCKIES! No, it wouldn’t “guarantee” anything for the postseason, but it sure would be an enormous morale booster going in- especially given how they’ve looked for the past week!
by sarcastro9 on Oct 1, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should we root for the Astros over the Phillies?
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 3:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
absolutely
the more home field advantage, the better!
by sarcastro9 on Oct 1, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But don’t put too much of your heart into it, cuz the Phillies are rather huge favorites to win that game.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
FYI
Though I’m not happy about the Cardinals winning, at least we won’t have to hear otherwise respectable people giving the rationalization, “Yeah, but…but…but the Cardinals and Phillies are struggling too!” There’s a hugh difference between underperforming and totally collapsing. And apparently, Chris Carpenter can HIT too! Yikes.
by sarcastro9 on Oct 1, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t rationalize that way. I still whole-heartedly agree with Eric’s post that “hotness” and “coldness” are not indicators of post-season success. I frankly don’t care what Philadelphia and St. Louis are doing other than how it pertains to HFA. St. Louis on a “hot” streak doesn’t make me more afraid of them and them losing doesn’t give me any more confidence.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sort of agree
I don’t think we’re beating St. Louis in the playoffs regardless of how they are playing. I like our shot v. Philly regardless of how they’re playing. I’m much more worried about our play of late then our opponents.
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think regular season performance against a team has much correlation with postseason and I think we have a chance against either the phillies and the cardinals
"If your season is going well, you have walked into an ambush."
by Sordid on Oct 1, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB Network (sans Hart) basically predicting Colorado is going to sweep LA
by oshea2002 on Oct 1, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well now..
You think that might have a little something to do with the team that employed Matt Vasgersian prior to his job with MLB network this season? The guy’s biased…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brewers = Fail
Never again will I believe in the Breweres. I stopped believing (in the Breweres).
In case anyone needs to feel any better, just think of the hurt going on in SF now:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091001&content_id=7272882&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
First officially eliminated from the playoffs after we unofficially destroyed their hopes TWICE, and then some salt sprinkled in the wounds just to make them howel!
If that doesn’t work for you (then you are probably dead), but there’s always that we have the best record in the National League thing too.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 1, 2009 4:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Something we learned in Denver today.
Champagne tastes reeeeally good.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
by Mondogarage on Oct 1, 2009 4:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Something for the wardrobe
Okay, so it’s been done before….
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
by Mondogarage on Oct 1, 2009 4:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You truly have a LOT of nerve coming to OUR house, spouting your pro-Rockies, anti-Dodger b.s.
I used to just casually pay attention to you little fleas before. You were kind of cute with your purple colors and your ripped off Carbonated Resonance logos. I did not really care what you did or said since the days of Dante I-can’t-win-the-MVP-here Bichette and Andres Nalgas de Queso Galaraga. But now this?
I hope you get swept by whoever you face, whether it be the Phils or the Redbirds. I hope Howard hits a bunch to Wyoming. I hope Pujols gets one of those mountains named after him after he sends so many homers there.
P.S. Your manager smells farts.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 1, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
One team in the Western Division still alive for the division title this year....
….has seen the World Series this decade from something other than the front of a television set.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
by Mondogarage on Oct 1, 2009 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who gives a shit?
Seriously, what a stupid comment
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least the last time LA was in the WS they won it.
How did the Rockies’ appearance turn out. Oh yeah, they were swept. How did that taste?
by David Young on Oct 1, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
= DOUCHE-CANOE
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 2, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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