Backing Into A Division Title - Game Chat
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 11:30 AM PDT
in Game Threads
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You know the story. If the Rockies lose, the Dodgers win the National League West. The Rockies can clinch a playoff spot with a win.
Aaron Cook vs. Manny Parra.
This is division match point number 8 for the Dodgers.
Here are today's lineups:
| Brewers |
Rockies | |||
| 2B | Lopez | CF | Fowler | |
| RF | Gerut | LF | Spilborghs | |
| LF | Braun | 1B | Helton | |
| 1B | Fielder | SS | Tulowitzki | |
| 3B | McGehee | 3B | Atkins | |
| CF | Cameron | C | Iannetta | |
| SS | Escobar | RF | Hawpe | |
| C | Kendall | 2B | Barmes | |
| P | Parra | P | Cook | |
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Comments
Oh Lamar Odom!
ur fucking Lamar Odom
u can get anybody and u choose Klhoe???
bleh!
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
There’s lots of semi tasteless jokes that I am going to refrain from posting on this one. Unless someone else starts it.
vr, Xei
no go ahead
i dont care…
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
Ummm...
“Oh Lamar Odom…ur fucking Lamar Odom”
Kinda sounds a little narrsasstic to begin with…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Simulator says COL 55%, AccuScore COL 65%. Not sure why Cook is getting all this love. His stats aren’t that great and are even poor on the road.
vr, Xei
Maybe it's just more that Parra is terrible
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I'm not sure
Cook has had some terrible terrible patches this season. But I’d take Cook over Parra on any day in any environment.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess I didn't know that
but I should have. Colorado finished 3rd last year for the first tim ever. 2nd twice. 1995 (LA first) and 2007. So yeah, makes sense
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Reply fail
that was supposed to be towards the Rockies finishing better than the Dodgers just once.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Post should be renamed "Self Destructing into A Division Tittle" :)
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
but he's joe's guy
best buds, like loretta
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
i smell a reds comeback today
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
You college guys
must get laid more then I ever did because if I was single there isn’t a girl in the photo I wouldn’t have minded waking up next to.
I’d be troubled having Bruce Jenner as a father in law.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Bruce Jenner the Decathalon Champion
is the father of them? Wow, I remember when he won his gold medal and they kept harping on his great family. That must have been a different family because they’d all be kind over 30.
Stepfather.
He’s had more work done than Joan Rivers.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
But, as Larry David said, “Step counts.” :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
A good point from a wise man. I agree wholeheartedly. Make it more than one of them, and throw in some earplugs, and I’d take a week of waking up next to them.
You just...
might want to throw in some topical cream, too. Just to be on the safe side. And a Lobster Bib along with a shower cap…
And don’t forget about the belt sander, too!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
When I graduated college I sold all that stuff.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 1, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The way things have been going i'm expecting a Brewers forfeit
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
He’s going to use his big game experience from facing Manny Ramirez in our Manny’s first minor league “rehab” game.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
7 wins in his last 11 starts
totally meaningless, but no dodger has come close to a stretch like that in a loooooong time… king of run support
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Helton single
it helps to have beard power….
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
1-0 end of 1st
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
this should end well...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
is it time to go emo?
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
Fielder single...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
yeah brad hawpe is the worst right fielder (at fielding) i've ever seen
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
escobar singles
fielder to 3rd
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
cmon kendall
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
sweet, hit in the shoulder
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Oct 1, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
that's for the books
i think he’s top 3 hbp all-time
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
what is that gameday?? an HBP?
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
we can all go home now
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
he's slightly bad at the plate
even for a pitcher
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
bases loaded for parra?
this should end well
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
gameday is 2 years behind the rest of the world
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
Parra's hitting and pitching will doom us all
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
+1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
Chris Carpenter
drove in six runs and struck out six batters. How many times has that happened in baseball?
that automatically guarantees him the geico player of the day....
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
I want to think
the babe ruth might have done it once in 1919
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Robert Person had that insane day at the plate a few years ago
not sure how well he pitched though (he wasn’t a memorable pitcher other than this one game.)
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Five Strikeouts, Seven Rbis
not as cool as six and six.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200206020.shtml
Nice pick by the way.
This is the game El Lay Dave and I always remember
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN196607030.shtml
Two Grand Slams, Nine runs batted in, only Five Strikeouts
Yes, first one I would have tried
The next try is Rick Wise’s no-hitter while facing three HOFers, where he hit two HRs, but it was only 3 RBI and 3 Ks. He had another two-HR game that year, with 5 RBI and 11 Ks.
nice work Parra
walk the pitcher…
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
ugh walks cook on 4 pitches
anyone who complains about Kershaw should watch Manny Parra for an afternoon haha
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
Pitch counts are for sissies
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
weve gotta somehow hope aaron cook does worse....
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
according to the Rockies announcers
the Dodgers have finished ahead of the Rockies 15 out of 16 times
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
I guess I didn't know that
but I should have. Colorado finished 3rd last year for the first tim ever. 2nd twice. 1995 (LA first) and 2007. So yeah, makes sense
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
The brewers have proven to be almost completely useless
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
they split against the phils
that helped… sort of
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Just remember what Rockies fans kept hearing from their players
when Atlanta was charging:
I’d rather be in our position than theirs
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:03 PM PDT reply actions
Thanks for making Friday Night a once in a lifetime opportunity for me
by meercatjohn on Oct 1, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Heh
You don’t have the starting pitching advantage though :) Though it is close. It will definitely be interesting
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Manny Parra: i want the dodgers to clinch tomorrow...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
bases loaded 0 outs
dream weaver where are u?
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
that would be less likely than winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning on your way home
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
Parra about to walk Cook
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
our sanity...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
just saw the 'injury delay' on gameday
hoping for something involving an asteroid and tulo, guess not
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
A win by Colorado today
Would drop the Dodgers chances for winning the NL West from 95.08% down to 92.43% based on how I have handicapped the remaining three games.
vr, Xei
Do you have a link to your handicap?
And who is starting Sunday?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Here is my original post on the subject over at Dodger Thoughts. I run actual game simulations over at my blog and post them as Fanposts every day here.
Here are my estimates on win probabilities for each game. If the pitching rotations are different than what I pulled off of ESPN then that could change things a little bit. I don’t have my simulator in front of me, so I am handicapping off the top of my head, but I’m trying to be a little on the conservative side.
MIL vs COL [COL 0.65]
COL vs LAN [Jimenez vs Wolf, LAN 0.56]
COL vs LAN [de la Rosa vs Kershaw, LAN 0.60]
COL vs LAN [Marquis vs Kuroda, LAN 0.57]
So the chances of the Dodgers NOT winning the division would be.
.65 × .44 × .40 x .43 = 0.049192 or 4.92%
or a 95.08% chance of winning the division. BPro says 94.24%, wo I guess I am in fairly good agreement with them.
Well Kuroda isn't pitching, right?
how much do you weight seasonal head-to-head, home field and recent pitching performances by the starters?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Not sure if an official announcement has been made on Kuroda or not. But like I said, if the rotations change, then my numbers change.
The handicap above is just pulled out of my ass. It’s based on my vast knowledge of how baseball games are generally handicapped by vegas. I may be off by a little, but not by a lot.
Usually, I use my simulator. It plays “actual” games. So no need to weight anything. Just feed it projections, park and hfa adjust and play 50K games or more.
vr, Xei
If we make that sunday game a 50/50 game it changes the chances to 91.2%. It only drops the odds of winning the NL West by slightly over 1%.
vr, Xei
pecota has the current odds at 92 and change
with the rox win today, it should be a hair under 90 tomorrow.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
DL, posted on DT that the BPro had the odds currently at 94.24%
Flipping a coin the last four (inc COL/MIL game) games would put us at 93.75% and at 87.5% with three games left. Personally, I believe the Dodgers should be favored in the first two games, with the 3rd one a possible toss up depending on who pitches for us (ie – Weaver, Billingsley, Padilla, Haeger).
vr, Xei
haeger?
who is this haeger guy you’re talking about?
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
is he currently hiding a pineapple
under his right knee?
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd agree with that high of a percentage
if they were robots. But Los Angeles sure is playing tight, and the Rockies are clicking…you never know
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya, xeiFrank you need to add a category for “clutch” too.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
cpi is frequently used
but hpip (heart per inning pitched) is a bit more descriptive IMO
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
:) I understand math and the game have to be exclusive sometimes
but a sweep has to be more likely than had the Dodgers won four straight, yes?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
that's a fairly small sample for gambling purposes
my first guess would be that the starters’ last 5 starts are wayyy more relevant than the teams’ last 5 games.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s correct, but you would be even more correct if you’d go back and look at not only the last 5 starts, but starts from the last two calander years. Of course you weight the more recent starts much heavier than the old starts, but they are still relevant. I use a logarithmic weighting, instead of the linear 5/4/3. I am still playing around with what is the best one size fits all exponent.
vr, Xei
so do you have any theories
as to how to project postseason performance? would you ever consider using previous postseason appearances as a differently weighted category?
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I would NEVER use previous postseason appearances to predict success/failure in a current postseason. Some of the variables may be the same, ie – Manny Ramirez was on the 08 and 09 teams, but too many of the variables have changed and if you are talking about going back 5 or 10 years, then all of the variables have changed.
vr, Xei
ok, i may have misread your post as team related instead of individual related.. as in AROD is better during the season than he is in the post-season. Is that correct? No, i wouldn’t worry about previous post-season experience. I’d give it the same weighting I would to any other game that happened one, two or three years ago. Which is not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.
vr, Xei
v guerrero has also been horrible
betting against both of them in the playoffs based on a postseason choke tendency has been steady money, even if the reasoning is specious.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
just by shit luck, there are going to be a handful of good players who perform poorly over a small sample size or previous playoffs.
Take a 100 coins, flip them each 10 times. Then take the couple of coins that came up heads 9 or 10 times in a row. What are the odds that they come up heads vs tails on the 11th flip?
vr, Xei
that's what makes gambling interesting
“But what stands out for me even more than A-Rod’s utterly pathetic on-the-field play was that strange-looking face he made in the dugout right after hitting into that death knell of a double play – that pale, hard-chewing, glazed-over, shell-shocked face. "
http://archive.recordonline.com/archive/2005/11/15/geffmlb1.htm
…and that was written at the BEGINNING of his ice-cold 50AB postseason skid.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya, it’s very entertaining. But not something I would worry at all about if trying to formulate a bet or make a serious prediction.
vr, Xei
well, if you're not a believer
i’m sure there are some a-rod and VG props out there with your name on them!
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
ah, but that's the temptation
if you believe that the curse is exaggerated, wouldn’t you think that VG and a-rod were god for at least 3 hits in a given alds? our superstitious numbskullery could be YOUR gain…
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
walk the pitcher
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
Cook is actually a worldclass hitter, so I understand working around him.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Oct 1, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions
Working around him with the bases loaded
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
I never said the logic was there.
Now walking Dex with the bases chalked, that’s just stupid.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Oct 1, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
this can only mean a dexter fowler grand slam...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
Garret Atkins will steal home :)
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
he struck out barmes and walked cook
WOAT
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
and so it continues...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
good bye manny
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
the current screen is interesting
check the location of pitches 2 and 3 to fowler.
rare that gameday shows such a small zone.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_10_01_milmlb_colmlb_1
the zone just shrunk
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
I guess you earn your strike zone with consistency
as they say
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
that and 15 or so benjamins
discretely tucked in the pocket in the parking lot two hours before gametime
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
ugh
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 1, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I can't believe Odom married that gargoyle.
And Cook & Fowler are more disciplined hitters than Hawpe & Barmes so no surprises there.
You guys deserve this for blogging a game you’re not involved with. Choke on, suckas.
cook has 18 walks in 307 ABs
he’s just horrible at the plate. but I hope he beats philly! we’ll need a nice long break before the WS.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
yes, Cook is a better hitter with that great .116 AVG
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
Yes, how stupid of us on an off day to actually care about a game that has implications for the Dodgers.
What a bunch of assholes we are.
ELGee
Make sure to turn into the Versus network tonight to watch your beloved Colorado Snowblowers lose 14-1 against the Sharks tonight!!! Hope you enjoy your hockey team finishing in 23rd place in a 15 team conference this season!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope the Rox win,
I want to clinch on our own terms. Not by default. That girls’ cool, she’s got a dope a**.
by Skunkburner on Oct 1, 2009 1:41 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
this will cheer u guys up...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obe7jpGLbhA
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
G's may pull up with 88 wins
that’s been enough to win either the nl west or nl central for much of the past decade… that’s gotta hurt
well, 87 is often enough
for those 2 divisions – and 88 seems much better than the g’s have been in a while.
such a waste of those young arms.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions
2002 Dodgers
finished 92-70 and missed the playoffs. That sucked.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions
that is harsh
just looking – the 2 bay teams won a total of 193 games in ’03… been a while
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Parlay of the weekend
SC to cover, Colorado to win the NL West. Book em.
Why would you tie the SC game to that parlay. That’s just greedy. You’d already be paid sick money just by hitting on having colorado win the divsion. Wouldn’t it be smarter to bet USC alone as a hedge?
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
wow, only 5
that is seriously dogged out. vegas hates sc all of a sudden. should be at least 9 after that drubbing in oregon.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
SC -9 would get way too much money thrown on Cal.
they were a top 10 team who played a terrible game. SC hasn’t looked like world beaters, and their offense doesn’t look capable of a double digit win on the road.
i'm the opposite of a PC fan
but there’s no way he won’t tune up the passing game this week – and SC has infinitely more talent than oregon, it shouldn’t be hard to duplicate that defensive performance
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Defensively yes
I’m not sure we’re going to score like Oregon did though.
of course, the big kicker is how SC comes out Sat. after what went down this week. They’ve been terrible in practice this week apparently.
it must rattle you if you're a pre-nfl type
it sounds callous, but it was a pretty powerful illustration of why you tell a guy like PC to shove it after two (or max three) years and cash a signing bonus if you’re smart. of course, sanchez is the other side of that.
tebow really underscores that as well this year. how gullible can you get? sacrificing your nervous system for rah-rah crap… enjoy working at midas.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
How about Bradford and Gresham at OU?
Even worse.
you are probably right mrwhite06
Leave the colorado bet as a stand alone, and then parlay SC with someone else, or leave it alone
The key word around here would be “clenched” instead of “clinched” if that were the case. :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 1, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thx - I couldn't remember if they won by 1 game
or we tied but they won the tiebreaker.
I’m going to write a bit about it in the morning. That final day is the main reason why the wild card is dumb.
Short summation of my opinion:
extra playoff spot = good
wild card setup = bad
Yeah, I remember leaving the stadium pissed in '96
but only sort of pissed
I was in college in San Diego and had to hear a lot of shit about that stupid weekend. It didn’t help that both teams got swept in round 1.
I was a junior in high school
and my buddy was a Giants fan (who for that week span was a Padres fan). I ended up betting him $100 on Game 1 of St L and San Diego. Little did he know that the game had started and I knew St L had scored 3 in the first. Karma bitch.
Can I denounce Xeifrank as a Rockie sympathizer :)
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
does anyone know
what the odds were for the Dodgers to win the division when they were up by 2 runs (or was it 3? I blocked it out already) against Pittsburgh in th 9th with a magic number of one? Mathematically speaking, if the Dodgers were to be swept by the Rockies, from the bottom of the 9th of that nightmare inning to the end of the season, I don’t think it’s an exagerration to say it would be one of the most- if not THE most- improbable events in sports history. It’d be like losing a best of 13 series when you were ahead in the series 6 to 0, and leading the 7th game in the 9th- and that doesn’t even bring the (lack of) quality of the opponents into play!
Of course, all this is going to be moot in one (two?! (THREE?!!)) days, as the Dodgers will get it together just in time to clinch, leaving all of us to collectively say to them, “Oh, you guys really had us going there!”
Excellent question. The way to do it would be to take the highest WE during the ninth inning and then take the odds on xeiFranks simulator of the Dodgers losing every game and Colorado winning every game from then on out. I’m guessing the odds were so close to 0% that you would need five or six decimal points.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m going to multiply the highest WE during that game by .995, which is probably pretty close to what our Pecota chances of winning the division were on that day.
vr, Xei
Approximate answer is…
1 – ( .005 × .034)
= 99.983% chance of winning the division.
if my .995 number is off then it changes the answer slightly.
vr, Xei
thanks
I was afraid I’d be lambasted just for asking, but given what we’ve ALREADY seen- not just from the Dodgers, but from the Rockies, as well- I think it’s at least worth considering!
I wonder if the Rockies are going to alter their rotation at all?
I’d guess no – winning the division and getting St. Louis would be huge for them, they own the Card this year.
Even then – is the WC all that bad for us? I’m not sure – it would mean Philly over St. Louis, and I’d prefer St. Louis.
No it's not that bad
I just don’t want Eric to take grief for his “the division race is over” post.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, there is no way this doesn't happen. :)
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Did A. Martinez just say that the Dodgers lack “Heart”?
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
Even though I love Journey, I wouldn’t object to some “Heart” in the 8th inning at Dodger Stadium.
“How do I get you alone (in first place).”
Oooooooooohh!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Nice
Heart went all Aerosmith in the 80’s with their ballads and stuff. My buddy and I have been arguing for like 12 years over whether or not Barracuda is a good song.
late 70s heart is awesome
sexy back in the day, too
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Pre carb Ann was pretty hot. Then Nancy showed up one day in a video with huge knockers…who knew? Ahhh…the good old days of girl band rock!
BTW…Nancy married to Cameron Crow for 20+ years.
of course
she was the one that made ‘almost famous’ a decent flick – spotlighting a great jam like ’that’s the way’ was pure nancy
by stillnotah8er on Oct 1, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
he said it this morning too
was blabbing about some text message he sent siciliano and thompson last night after the dodgers lost…he also said the team is comprised of a bunch of entitled kids. asshole.
Are we excited? Yes. Do I like where this team is headed? Yes.
Am I happy for Colorado giving me this opportunity? Of course.
yeah, me too- seriously
No matter what people say about how the regular season “doesn’t matter” once the playoffs start, I think there’d be a world of difference if the Dodgers go in with them a) clinching at home b) on the field, instead of watching a TV in the clubhouse and c) against the ROCKIES! No, it wouldn’t “guarantee” anything for the postseason, but it sure would be an enormous morale booster going in- especially given how they’ve looked for the past week!
Should we root for the Astros over the Phillies?
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
FYI
Though I’m not happy about the Cardinals winning, at least we won’t have to hear otherwise respectable people giving the rationalization, “Yeah, but…but…but the Cardinals and Phillies are struggling too!” There’s a hugh difference between underperforming and totally collapsing. And apparently, Chris Carpenter can HIT too! Yikes.
I wouldn’t rationalize that way. I still whole-heartedly agree with Eric’s post that “hotness” and “coldness” are not indicators of post-season success. I frankly don’t care what Philadelphia and St. Louis are doing other than how it pertains to HFA. St. Louis on a “hot” streak doesn’t make me more afraid of them and them losing doesn’t give me any more confidence.
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I sort of agree
I don’t think we’re beating St. Louis in the playoffs regardless of how they are playing. I like our shot v. Philly regardless of how they’re playing. I’m much more worried about our play of late then our opponents.
Well now..
You think that might have a little something to do with the team that employed Matt Vasgersian prior to his job with MLB network this season? The guy’s biased…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 1, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Brewers = Fail
Never again will I believe in the Breweres. I stopped believing (in the Breweres).
In case anyone needs to feel any better, just think of the hurt going on in SF now:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091001&content_id=7272882&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
First officially eliminated from the playoffs after we unofficially destroyed their hopes TWICE, and then some salt sprinkled in the wounds just to make them howel!
If that doesn’t work for you (then you are probably dead), but there’s always that we have the best record in the National League thing too.
Something we learned in Denver today.
Champagne tastes reeeeally good.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Something for the wardrobe
Okay, so it’s been done before….
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
You truly have a LOT of nerve coming to OUR house, spouting your pro-Rockies, anti-Dodger b.s.
I used to just casually pay attention to you little fleas before. You were kind of cute with your purple colors and your ripped off Carbonated Resonance logos. I did not really care what you did or said since the days of Dante I-can’t-win-the-MVP-here Bichette and Andres Nalgas de Queso Galaraga. But now this?
I hope you get swept by whoever you face, whether it be the Phils or the Redbirds. I hope Howard hits a bunch to Wyoming. I hope Pujols gets one of those mountains named after him after he sends so many homers there.
P.S. Your manager smells farts.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 1, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
One team in the Western Division still alive for the division title this year....
….has seen the World Series this decade from something other than the front of a television set.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Who gives a shit?
Seriously, what a stupid comment
by Michael White on Oct 1, 2009 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions
At least the last time LA was in the WS they won it.
How did the Rockies’ appearance turn out. Oh yeah, they were swept. How did that taste?
= DOUCHE-CANOE
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 2, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions
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