FanPost

Dodgers Simulation, October 2nd

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Rockies and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 930PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
COL LAN U.Jimenez vs R.Wolf LAN 50.98% 56.46% 71%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Quite a bit of variety on tonight's game.  Vegas thinks it's a tossup game, my simulator has the Dodgers as moderate favorites and AccuScore seems to be asleep at the wheel.  71% win probability against Ubaldo Jimenez?  I don't think so.  My guess is they made a mistake and will chop off about 10-15% off of the Dodgers win probability later on today when they realize that the Rockies team plane was indeed not hijacked and flown to Somalia.

Even though the Rockies now control their own destiny and can win the NL West with a three game sweep of the Dodgers, the odds are still heavily in the Dodgers favor for winning the division.  I have simulated each of the three remaining games.  Though there is some "guess work" as far as what the starting lineups may be, this is still the best way for determining the chances for winning the division.  I have used the following three pitching matchups (Jimenez vs Wolf, de la Rosa vs Kershaw, Marquis vs Padilla).  The odds of the Dodgers winning the NL West using my simulation outputs are

Going into fridays game:  1 - (0.4354 x 0.369 x 0.432) = 93.06%

If we lose fridays game:  1 - (0.369 x 0.432) = 84.06%

If we lose fri/sat games: 56.80%

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2
2 LAN 4-3
3 LAN 2-1
4 LAN 5-4
5 COL 3-2
6 COL 4-3
7 LAN 3-1
8 LAN 4-2
9 LAN 6-5
10 COL 2-1
11 LAN 5-2
12 COL 4-2
13 LAN 4-1
14 COL 5-3
15 COL 3-1
16 COL 5-4
17 LAN 5-3
18 LAN 1-0
19 LAN 2-0
20 COL 5-2

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
U.Jimenez 1.437 3.356
R.Wolf 1.301 3.599

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 D.Fowler R.Furcal
2 R.Spillborghs O.Hudson
3 T.Helton A.Ethier
4 T.Tulowitzki M.Ramirez
5 G.Atkins M.Kemp
6 C.Iannetta J.Loney
7 B.Hawpe C.Blake
8 C.Barmes R.Martin
9 U.Jimenez R.Wolf
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