Padilla, Dodgers Look To Close Out Cardinals
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 11:01 AM PDT
in Game Previews
71 comments
| NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers | |||
| Dodgers Lead Series 2-0 | |||
| Game 1 | Dodgers 5, Cardinals 3 | ||
| Game 2 | Dodgers 3, Cardinals 2 | ||
| Game 3 | Today | Busch Stadium | 3:07pm |
| Game 4* | Sun | Busch Stadium | 12:37pm |
| Game 5* |
Oct 13 |
Dodger Stadium | 6:37pm / 5:07pm |
| *if necessary | All times Pacific | ||
| All games televised on TBS | |||
The Dodgers have a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series, but we need not look farther back than Game 2 to see that until the deed is done, there's no reason to celebrate just yet. The Dodgers still have a lot of work to do, but they do in fact have a bid advantage. After all, a bird in the hand is worth two in the Busch.
Vicente Padilla gets the honor of starting today, with an opportunity to send the Dodgers to the next round. He has not faced the Cardinals since 2003. All we know is that Padilla has made seven starts as a Dodger, and the Dodgers have won six games. Padilla is 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA, a 3.40 FIP, and a 3.46 x-FIP as a Dodger. He can join Jeff Weaver, Ronnie Belliard, and Mark Loretta in the group of unlikely Dodger heroes this postseason with a win.
Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright have rightfully shared the spotlight this season, but Joel Pineiro has had a fine season, finishing 9th in the league in FIP (3.31) and 11th in the league in x-FIP (3.76). Pineiro doesn't strikeout anyone (just 4.4 per nine innings this season), but he limits walks and home runs like nobody's business. Pineiro was brilliant on July 29 against the Dodgers, allowing just one run in eight innings.
What the Dodgers can hang their hat on against the mustachioed Pineiro (aren't they all?) is that for the last two months, he has pitched more like, well, Joel Pineiro. In his final 12 starts of the season Pineiro was 6-3, but with a 4.64 ERA and a 4.68 FIP.
This is the first postseason start for both Padilla and Pineiro, meaning five of the six starting pitchers in this series were making their first postseason start. Pineiro allowed one run in two innings of relief in his one playoff experience, in the 2001 ALCS against the Yankees.
The Cardinals have three hits in 22 at-bat with runners in scoring position so far this series. The Dodgers aren't much better at 4-for-18, although those last two hits are the difference between a 1-1 series and a 2-0 Dodger lead.
The Dodgers are 0-5 all-time in playoff games in St. Louis (three in 1985, two in 2004).
Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.
Game Time: 3:07pm
TV: TBS (Dodgers are the first only game today, so no need to start with TNT)
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What were the odds before the season
that Joel Pineiro would be a good competent pitcher and Chad Billingsley would be the 4th option for Joe Torre come playoff time?
by mwhite06 on Oct 10, 2009 11:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Roughly the same as Matt Holliday catching that soft liner off the bat of James Loney :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I were St. Louis
I would not leave any windows open.
Just saying . . .
by Dodger Dude on Oct 10, 2009 11:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I posted this question on Twitter, but I'll repost here
Who is the Dodgers’ all-time leader in playoff starts by a pitcher?
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 11:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Furcal6 Kemp8 Ethier9 Ramirez7 Loney3 Blake5 Belliard4 Martin2 Padilla1
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Schu 2B, Lud RF, Pujols 1B, Holliday LF, Rasmus CF, Molina C, DeRosa 3B, Ryan SS, Pineiro P
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Struggling 1890s player Brendan Ryan dropped to 8th.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow interesting,....
no protection for albert
just holliday and a ROOOKIE?
by matthewmafa on Oct 10, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really hope he continues to have that name, thanks to a wonderful career with the Dodgers by Scott :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Decided to pursue other oppurtunities”.
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 10, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was a weird story. I’ve seen reports that say he was fired too. It would be funny if a team interviewed just two people for coaching jobs this offseason, and decided to pass on Jack Clark so they could get Van Slyke. :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Odd
The ESPN article title made it seem like he was canned.
by NotJoeTorre on Oct 10, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
mlb's take on game 2
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=7222260
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 10, 2009 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If the Dodgers win they'll be doing the Cardinals a favor:)
It gives the Cardinals players time to polish their MVP and Cy young awards
Aces are for teams without the best bullpen in baseball.
by Sordid on Oct 10, 2009 12:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
D'oh!,Forgot Comeback Player of the year award
Aces are for teams without the best bullpen in baseball.
by Sordid on Oct 10, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Pujols struggle hitting equal to Manny's struggle?
Pujols seems to be walking more but when he does swing he’s been nearly as bad as Manny.
Aces are for teams without the best bullpen in baseball.
by Sordid on Oct 10, 2009 12:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
High: 27° F Low: 22° F
Few Snow Showers
by fritts on Oct 10, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its officiallly Official
Chris Carpenter will start on short rest if there is a game 4!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2009/news/story?id=4548720
by matthewmafa on Oct 10, 2009 1:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
St Louis Weather?
Just to make sure, cause I read about there being some showers in STL, we won’t be stuck with a PP game too will we? Cause that’d be like a gift to STL and they can make their 1-2 punch go AGAIN on short rest…
by TheNewbster on Oct 10, 2009 1:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I normally don’t count my chickens before they hatch, but…
If we close this series out tonight, this weather delay in Colorado is gonna give us a nice break before the NLCS starts.
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
by Jesse Sparks on Oct 10, 2009 1:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
NLCS is scheduled to start Thursday no matter what (well, I guess 2 more delays could delay the NLCs)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 1:19 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
dont want a ton of rest
just ask the 2006 Tigers
rest is good tho
but not too much
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 10, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
JeffFletcherAOL Thoughts on Carpenter (and maybe Lester) on 3 days rest: Since start of expanded playoffs, starters on 3 days rest are 19-30, 4.72.
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 1:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Phillies starting JA HAPP over martinez now...
Game 3 of the Philadelphia-Colorado playoff series was postponed a day because of weather Saturday better suited for cross country skiing. That prompted a pitching switch by the Phillies, with left-hander J.A. Happ(notes) going to the mound Sunday instead of the 37-year-old Martinez.
by matthewmafa on Oct 10, 2009 1:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pedro and 20 degree weather didnt seem like a good idea.
by NotJoeTorre on Oct 10, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phils get a break
Yea, Philly just avoided handing a free game over to Colorado….
by TheNewbster on Oct 10, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty much
happ is a better pitcher than the 37 year old pedro
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 10, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
they should be wear these elmer fudd-esque caps in Denver...
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 10, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fell asleep watching the first half of the Oregon/UCLA game
just want this baseball game to get started already
by mwhite06 on Oct 10, 2009 1:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i just realized the weaver brothers have collected a win each in the postseason
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 10, 2009 1:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m ready just got my Jamba Juice some Chi Chi’ s pizza I’m ready for some baseball let’s go Doyers
by Dodgermanramon on Oct 10, 2009 2:06 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Where is it? Pasadena? Or are there multiple locations?
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just sent you that file via email BTW
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah my phone notified me.
Thanks a lot, Eric.
Fantastic tool.
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 10, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmmmm
Chi Chi pizza..
The only one I know of is in SCV
by NotJoeTorre on Oct 10, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup there is one in Northridge on Tampa and Nordhoff they have the best pizza
by Dodgermanramon on Oct 10, 2009 2:18 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
We need to jump on Pineiro early
For 2009, OPS Against by Pitch Count:
1-25: .862
26-50: .572
51-75: .601
76-100: .686
He’s given up 40 runs in innings 1-2 and 54 in innings 3-9.
by Sam PHL on Oct 10, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
wowww
looks like the more tired he gets… his sinker probably sinks more
by matthewmafa on Oct 10, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're right
5 HR allowed in pitches 1-25 and 6 HR allowed in pitches 26+
by Sam PHL on Oct 10, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One could argue
that if a pitcher doesn’t have his best stuff early; he is more likely to get run in the first few innings. Therefore what’s left is the starts where he is pitching rather well.
I actually don’t think that’s the case with Joel because he rarely gets bombed and knocked out of games.
by mwhite06 on Oct 10, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At a glance, I think he’s only had one start of less than 5 innings, where he went 4 innings.
by Sam PHL on Oct 10, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The last two months have been not as good for Pineiro, and he has been especially vulnerable early (check the 2nd inning):
Since August 1 (12 starts)
1st – 8 runs
2nd – 13
3rd – 3
4th – 4
5th – 5
6th – 7
7th – 1
8th – 0
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
FYI, game thread will be up at 2:45
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 2:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Let me preface by saying I want to win today...badly
But I don’t like calling today a “must win” as it appears some are doing (and in a few minutes on MLB Network they are going to discuss just that).
I agree facing Carpenter and Wainwright in games 4 & 5 represent quite a challenge, but there would still be a number of factors still in the Dodgers favor:
1) Carpenter would be pitching on 3 days rest, something he has never done in 260 career starts
2) I refuse to accept the premise that the duo is unbeatable, especially given that the Dodgers just won both games they started
3) Assume for a moment the Cardinals would be 70% favorites in each game, which I believe to be overwhelmingly unrealistic. Even if the Cards were somehow 70% favorites to win each game, that means the Cards only have a 49% chance to win both games.
It would be obviously great to win today, but it’s not a “must win,” at least not for the Dodgers.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
21-3 Oregon
21 unanswered points in the first 5 minutes of the second half
by mwhite06 on Oct 10, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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