Dodgers & Cardinals, By The Numbers
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 7:01 AM PDT
in Research
45 comments
Here's a look at some numbers through the first two games of the NLDS:
| Offensive Starters | |||||
| Team | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Cardinals | 70 | .339 | .414 | .484 | .898 |
| Dodgers | 72 | .276 | .403 | .448 | .851 |
| Offensive Subs & Pitchers |
|||||
| Team | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Cardinals | 10 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Dodgers | 9 | .143 | .250 | .143 | .393 |
| Starting Pitchers |
|||||
| Team | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | WHIP |
| Cardinals | 13.0 | 3.46 | 6.92 | 3.46 | 1.308 |
| Dodgers | 10.1 | 5.23 | 5.23 | 3.48 | 2.032 |
| Relief Pitchers |
|||||
| Team | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | WHIP |
| Cardinals | 3.2 | 14.73 | 7.36 | 2.45 | 3.000 |
| Dodgers | 7.2 | 0.00 | 5.87 | 1.17 | 0.783 |
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Those are some stark statistics
By them, you would guess that the Cards were up 2-0. I don’t know if that is a testament to how great the managing and bullpen has been, or an example of how misleading statistics can be.
by BlueBulldog on Oct 10, 2009 7:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure I would get that
I might assume the series was tied 1-1, with the Cardinals winning the game where their starter went deep into the game and they didn’t use their bench, and the Dodgers won the game where they used a lot of their bench and it came down to a battle of the bullpens and they won very late.
Baseball is a strange, strange game.
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
by Baroque on Oct 10, 2009 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
remember a couple of weeks ago when everybody jumped down my throat when I said that stats aren’t everything in baseball? this is proof.
by bearface on Oct 10, 2009 8:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what happens when it’s a big sample size?
by bearface on Oct 10, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Things normalize and you can start to see trends, etc.
The playoffs are a crapshoot because a player can become Hercules for a game or two when in reality, they may be an average player at best.
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The reverse is also true.
You think Kemp is a real .111 BA hitter?
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What constitutes "big" and "small"?
Nine at-bats is probably a small sample size for a player. But the stats Eric Stephen put up above are team-level stats. For example, sample size for team batting average is what, 80 to 90 or so? Is that “big” or “small?”
by 5ryu on Oct 10, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rule of thumb
is usually 200 at bats. (I think)
by Michael White on Oct 10, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I understand stats correctly
sample size is usually associated with a degree of confidence. Further you have to assume a certain distribution which affects the degree of confidence for the given sample size.
My point is I don’t think it’s as simple as simple “big” or “small” or 100 or 200 or whatever.
by 5ryu on Oct 10, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that’s exactly my point. stats are great to look at for projections etc, but i’m more concerned about the final outcome. Kemp has a dismal .111 BA for the post-season this year, but has one of the most important hits. or conversely, Wainright had an insanely impressive outing, but didn’t get the W.
by bearface on Oct 10, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You say that all you care about is the final outcome
as though those of us who like stats aren’t.
Of course we are. In individual games, all I care about is winning….
by Michael White on Oct 10, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't mean to infer that
i meant to infer that there’s MORE to baseball than stats – and that there are intangibles that are important to the game.
by bearface on Oct 10, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops
I’d also like to point out that Rafael Furcal is leading ALL post-season batters in BA, and he’s had to face Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright. Pretty impressive. Earn that money, Raffie.
by bearface on Oct 10, 2009 8:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i never knew a bullpen can win you games
till now
by matthewmafa on Oct 10, 2009 8:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ed_price #Phillies and #Rockies Game 3 tonite postponed. Game 4 will be Monday, which was travel day, time TBA
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 9:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
so game three is still gonna be tonight though?
William Doolittle at your service, a.k.a. will do.
by Ollie on Oct 10, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh nvm well i guess thats extra rest for their pitchers
William Doolittle at your service, a.k.a. will do.
by Ollie on Oct 10, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eric, doesn't Thome's HBP count among the sub's OBP? :)
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 9:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
D'oh!
That’s what I get for taking a short cut to total the stats. I have fixed it now, thanks.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How Ridiculous
that MLB is so scared of college football they only had two scheduled playoff game on a Saturday.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 10, 2009 9:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I could be wrong
doesn’t that have something to do with the Yankees choosing the long schedule, though?
by bearface on Oct 10, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only effect of the Yankees schedule was which team would play game 1 Wed or Thursday. The rest of the DS for the all-star winning league have this schedule:
game 2 – fri
game 3 – sun
game 4 – mon
game 5 – wed
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think they are scared of football…they have 4 games tomorrow, after all.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
i also think that the NFL presents a bigger challenge to the MLB than college football particularly because in the North East, where baseball is the most popular, nobody cares about CFB but they care tons about the Eagles/Giants/Jets/Patriots etc.
by bearface on Oct 10, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, unless they schedule one or two series with games on 3 straight days, we are pretty much guaranteed to have one weekend day with only 2 games.
Wednesday is probably the earliest reasonable day to start the playoffs, so it just works out this way.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It still feels weird to me that padilla is going out there in game 3 and not Bills
I know this sounds stupid after the last two performances we’ve had, but I cant help but think that if the Cads claw this one out today, they are right back in it. I really dont want to see Carp and Wainwrong again
William Doolittle at your service, a.k.a. will do.
by Ollie on Oct 10, 2009 9:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i agree, but
I wouldn’t mind seeing Carp on 3 days rest if it gets to a game 4. He has NEVER pitched on short rest in his career (which I found amazing). He can’t be the most confident guy in the world after the way he struggled on Wednesday, and our guys have the confidence now that we can hit him.
Sure, he’s a Cy Young candidate for a reason and all that stuff might not even matter. But I personally wouldn’t be too scared of a short-rest Carpenter if we have to play game 4
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Oct 10, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a short-rest Carpenter will be less than his normal self, but I still feel a sense of urgency about today’s game.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ya agreed i do believe we can get to Carp and more importantly their bullpen
I think that’ll be the key today, if Padilla can keep it close or at a draw with Piniero, I’d love it to square up for another bullpen battle. I guess my padilla concern is more psychological, maybe its not even concern as much as it is my inability still to believe Bills is starting behind him haha
William Doolittle at your service, a.k.a. will do.
by Ollie on Oct 10, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With the series between the Rockies and Phillies tied at a game apiece, Game 3 has been rescheduled for Sunday at 8:07 p.m. MT. Game 4 has been moved to Monday, with game time to be announced prior to the start of Sunday’s contest.
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 10:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If Padilla wins today, he will have the fewest wins ever by a Dodger starter (4) that got a postseason win.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Roger Craig had 5 wins in 1955, and started and won game 5 of the 1955 WS
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So in other word, another Dodgers reliever will pick up the win.
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I was looking that up last night…last series to have relievers get all of a team’s wins was the 2005 ALDS by the Angels. Last NL series was the Marlins in the 2003 NLDS against the Giants.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 10, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just wondering, is Gould pitching in instructional ball?
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
When and where does that take place?
He’s in LA for 3 more weeks right now.
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 10, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its happening right now in Arizona.
Supposed to list til Nov.
by Tripon on Oct 10, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen Is Awesome
7.2 of 18 innings pitched.
0 BB. Wow. ERA WHIP.
The bats kept us in the game, the bullpen won those two games.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 10, 2009 11:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Stats can be chosen selectively
Wins matter. And runs win games. The stats above mostly ignore runs. You don’t see runs scored or driven in among the batting stats, and that’s where the Dodgers had the advantage. And the pitching stats show only ERA, which excludes the two unearned runs in the ninth inning of game 2.
Even runs may not give a full picture. If there isn’t a sweep, one team can win more games by small victory margins, while the other team can win a smaller number of blowouts and have better stats. See the 1960 World Series for details.
I’m not saying those stats aren’t interesting; they are. But they don’t give a complete picture.
Here are a few words to describe what happened better than stats can:
Game 1 – Poor outings by both starters, but Cards starter allows more runs than Dodgers starter. Otherwise, lots of baserunners, few runs.
Game 2 – Dodgers starter allows one more run and lots more hits than Cards starter. Cards reliever blows game by allowing five consecutive baserunners (the first on an error) with two outs in ninth.
by nsxtasy on Oct 10, 2009 1:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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