AA Southern League - Chattanooga Lookouts Review
by meercatjohn on Oct 12, 2009 10:28 AM PDT
in Los Angeles Dodgers Minor League Report
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Our AA affiliate had a miserable season from both a won/lost, and prospect scenario. High hopes entered the season with top outfield prospect Andrew Lambo ready to build on his scintillating AA debut from 2008. Josh Bell was coming back from an injury that shortened his 2008 season, and it was expected that Ivan DeJesus might play SS one more year in AA before helping the club in Sept. Instead DeJesus broke his leg and basically missed the whole season. Lambo was pedestrian , and Josh Bell was traded right after he broke out his power stroke.
HITTING:
Best Offensive Prospect
With Josh Bell gone, Andrew Lambo is still the best offensive prospect. Baseball America did make him their 18th best prospect in the league. He was the only Dodger prospect to make the list.
18. Andrew Lambo, of, Chattanooga (Dodgers) Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 190. Drafted: '07 (4) The Dodgers' No. 1 prospect entering the season, Lambo played briefly in Double-A last year shortly after turning 20. He returned to the SL in 2009 for the full season and might end up repeating the level in 2010, as he posted mediocre numbers even in one of the league's more hitter-friendly parks.
Scouts who have followed Lambo the last two years said he didn't show the same power and liveliness in his bat that was present a year ago and worry that he might be a future fourth outfielder. Some scouts still liked his swing, as he has an advanced ability to drive the ball to the opposite field for a player his age. He has some raw power, though it showed up more as doubles (he finished third in the league with 39) than homers (11).
A well below-average runner, Lambo already is confined to left field. He does gets decent reads in the outfield and has an average, accurate arm.
I have to remember Lambo skipped a league but his performance in 2009 seems to have killed the idea this kid was going to be an elite prospect. He might simply end up a decent left fielder but I was hoping for more.
The Positives: His K rate dropped from 21% to 17%. His BABIP was .298 compared to .348 and .399 so he was probably a bit unlucky in 2009. Or it could be he simply stopped hitting the ball hard. That is what the scouts are saying, the ball was simply not jumping off his bat this year. The stats show his line drive rate was 20% so there is that. To his credit no other 21 year who qualified with 300 at bats did jack in the Southern League this year.
The Negatives: Drop in power for the third straight year. He went from a pitching park with an ISOP of .173 to an offensive park and yet his ISOP dropped to .150. Walk rate is still below 10% helping keep his wOBA at a below average .311.
Best Offensive Hitter:
No one was outstanding but 24 year old catcher Lucas May held off Thomas Giles and Eduardo Perez to win the honor. May had a slow start in April but went to work in May posting a mind boggling wOBA of .554 for the month before getting hurt. He came back in July and barely missed a beat putting up a .405 wOBA before slowing down in August. His OPS of .858 was just a tick behind Thomas Giles. Just one other note, May had an outstanding World Cup and delivered several key home runs to help the US win this round of the World Cup.
Sleeper:
Thomas Giles is already 26 and yes he can hit but at 26 he should be able to hit. Is there a sleeper on this team? Russ Mitchell if he could actually play 3rd base but he can't. So if I had to pick someone I'd pick 25 year old switch hitting 1st baseman Eduardo Perez . He destroyed the Cal League and was promoted in late May where he struggled his first two months. Once he got comfortable he was the best hitter on the team in August. In looking at his splits since he's a switch hitter he crushed LHP to the tune of 1.342 but that dropped of to .792 in AA. He was more consistent against RHP in both leagues.
Disappointment:
Lambo was the only player I had expectations for so his pedestrian performance was a disappointment to me. I'd hoped for a break out year that would put him on the national prospect map but this performance will make sure he does not see any top 100 lists. Trading Josh Bell was a huge disappointment. BA ranked him 10th in the league.
PITCHING:
Best Pitcher:Evidently Josh Linblom and Scott Elbert pitched enough innings to qualify for the Baseball America top 20 prospect list per league but neither made it. They both made 11 starts for the Lookouts before being promoted to AAA. Elbert is more then two years older then Lindblom but he outpitched him during his 11 starts. Elbert had 3.90 ERA with a 3.04 FIP. A K/9 rate of 12.6 leads the good news. The bad news is the 4.3 BB/9 rate which has been his problem. Many question if Elbert can become a mainstay in a major league rotation. Baseball America had this to say:
Frankie (Casper, WY): Do Scott Elbert and Andrew Cashner best project as starters or relievers, and did either get consideration?
Ben Badler: I already hit on Cashner, but yes, I think both of them end up in the bullpen. Elbert was a close call to make the list, but I just worry about his durability and his command, which is why I think he ends up in the bullpen, but I think he could be an excellent reliever.
Best Prospect: Chris Withrow only started six games for the Lookouts but the 20 year old was one of the youngest pitchers in the league. Madison Bumgarner gets all the hype as a 20 year old in AA but Withrow is not that far behind him considering he missed a full season in 2008. Don't be surprised if Withrow at the end of 2010 is not considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
Next Best Prospect: With two years on Elbert, Lindblom could end up being the better prospect. In his first full professional season Lindblom did very well. He wasn't excellent but his FIP showed he also wasn't the pitcher sporting the 4.71 ERA in the Southern League. His FIP was a solid 3.40 which is good for that league. Would have liked to have seen a better K/Rate but his BB/Rate of 2.2 is excellent.
Biggest Disappointment: This may be the last time we see James Adkins listed as a disappointment since going forward I have little expectations. Logan White really whiffed on this draft pick. Then again is was not that strong a draft though a Jordan Zimmerman would have looked nice pitching for the Lookouts in 2009 instead of blowing out his arm for the Nationals.
Other pitchers of note:
23 year old Javy Guerra was converted to a closer and sent to A ball to learn his craft. He was brilliant for the Loons and earned a promotion to AA on June 26th. He wasn't quite ready for AA and struggled with his command. However he seemed to right the ship at the end of the year and finished the season on a high note with no walks in his last five appearances with seven K's in 6.1 innings. Someone to keep an eye on.
Paul Koss, Mathew Sartor, and Francisco Felix all have potential to help a major league bullpen.
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I have no projection until
I see what they do with him next year. He went from starting for AA to relieving in AAA. Save his arm or is that where they ultimately see him?
by meercatjohn on Oct 12, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I have one philosophy
Start them until they fail :o
You can always move them to relief later, I don’t see why you would relegate them to the less valuable role immediately unless you have workload/injury concerns.
by Chad Moriyama on Oct 12, 2009 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Not related to Lookouts
but here is the Rockies lineup. I have to assume Troy Renck meant to say Seth Smith was in RF, not LF:
LF Carlos Gonzalez
CF Dexter Fowler
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Garrett Atkins
C Yorvit Torrealba
RF Seth Smith
2B Clint Barmes
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.
I’ll put up a game thread at 3pm.
Just for the record, we should all be Rockies fans today, regardless of which team we want to win the series.
Update
Smith is in LF, with CarGo in RF.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 12, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Not related to this thread but
MLB Trade Rumors is discussing arbitration and they still have Hudson down as someone who can get offered arbitration (though they don’t think he will).
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/which-free-agents-will-be-offered-arbitration.html
Can you guys bring me up to speed on this?
Haven’t been able to keep up with the comments lately. Thanks!
by silverwidow on Oct 12, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Canuck believes that the Dodgers can not offer Hudson arbitration
by Michael White on Oct 12, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
they can
they cant offer garland or manny
by matthewmafa on Oct 12, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Best Prospect: Chris Withrow only started six games for the Lookouts but the 20 year old was one of the youngest pitchers in the league. Madison Bumgarner gets all the hype as a 20 year old in AA but Withrow is not that far behind him considering he missed a full season in 2008. Don’t be surprised if Withrow at the end of 2010 is not considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
From the scouting reports, it seems like D’backs pitching prospect Jerrod Parker is more highly regarded over Madison Bumgarner. Too bad for Parker that he was shut down with a shoulder injury but it sounds like he’s going to avoid Tommy John surgery so small victories and all that.
If Elbert really is a reliever, it might actually increase his chances on staying on the team since the Dodgers seem to really dislike having more than one young starting pitcher on the team. (Then again, Kershaw is so special, and Torre is so comfortable for him that the Dodgers might make an exception to that implied rule.) Otherwise, I expect Elbert to eventually be traded.
I would take Withrow
over Bumgardner.
Parker’s ceiling is as an elite pitcher, but the injury scares me.
Bumgardner’s mechanics could be the worst thing i’ve ever seen.
by Chad Moriyama on Oct 12, 2009 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I expect Lindblom to hit the PCL list
He’s one of the very best relief prospects in the game and put up strong AAA numbers at 22.
Elbert and Lambo...
.. are drastically underrated. I am finding that BA really has their heads up their backsides in so many of their judgments these days.
just shows
that we have no good prospects in AA/AAA
good prospect depth
and elbert been up for so long that i dont understna dwhy hes een being donsidred for AA prospect and lindblom is a damn reliever who isnt even striking out 7 per 9 in AAA…and lambo has been a disappointment and suddenly been pronounced as a 4th outfielder limited to left field
Lindblom struck out 8.3 at Triple-A.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Josh-Lindblom.shtml
Lambo had a down year, it happens, This is really Elbert’s first full year since he’s been healthy. You’re also forgetting DeJesus who knocking on wood should be able to challenge for the 2nd base starting job by June. And then there’s Chris Withrow who may be a top 25 prospect guy.
Lambo, Elbert
Lambo was 20, was foolishly skipped an entire level by the Dodgers, and was playing in a league too advanced for him right now. His performance was fine for somebody in those circumstances. Elbert was no older in Double A than Sean West, who made BA’s top 20 list for the Southern League despite not dong as well as Elbert and having, in my opinion, inferior stuff , an inferior delivery, and a worse injury record. As for Lindblom, I think he really excelled this year when moved to the bullpen in Triple A. He looks more comfortable in that role. I would keep a as reliever. Broxton is two years away from free agency so I would not mind cultivating Lindblom as a replacement.
Gagne burned out as soon as he started making big money.
I don’t think it wise to invest a lot long term in a closer, especially if you look likely to be able to replace your closer from inside the organization.
I didn't realize this about Lambo
A well below-average runner
Wonder how I didn’t notice that before.
He does gets decent reads in the outfield and has an average, accurate arm.I’ve seen slow RFs before, so maybe this is enough to overcome the lack of speed. Heck, Arizona was still trying Adam Dunn in RF last year!
Sorry, not well-stated
I was questioning why he “already is confined to left field”.
If I squint a little bit, Lambo’s writeup sounds like what I could imagine an age-20 writeup of Andre Ethier being like, which for Ethier was his sophomore year at ASU.
Odd You Should Being Up Ethier
You probably won’t believe me, but to make my point that that lackluster numbers from a 20-year-old hitter in Double A is virtually meaningless, I was thinking of likening Lambo to Ethier, who was not only just a college ballplayer at age 20, but supposedly wasn’t that good a college player early in his college career.
by CanuckDodger on Oct 13, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I believe you
thebaseballcube.com is still great for getting the college stats, for example, on Andre Ethier’s page. That shows an age-20, college sophomore Ethier hitting .363 / .459 / .538 / .997, about 208 PA, only 4 HR, but a nice 32/20 K/BB. As I understand it, Ethier transferred to ASU after one year at a CC, because the ASU coaches thought he needed more playing time before they would offer a scholarship.
Clearly Lambo is young and the Dodger brass still believes he has the talent (why the hell else do they push him into AA at his young age?), so we should simply watch and observe and not discount the possibilities.
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