Dodgers vs. Phillies (Part Deux)
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 13, 2009 3:21 PM PDT
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The eighth inning of game four of the 2008 Major League Baseball National League Championship Series made any Dodger fan feel sour.
Lets recap
Hong Chih Kuo pitched to Ryan Howard in the top of the eighth, only to see Howard smack a single on a 2-0 count. Torre replaces Kuo with Cory Wade, who promptly made Pat Burrell fly out to second baseman, Angel Berroa. Shane Victorino came up to bat. He then hit a line drive home run that made all Dodger fans groan. Watching Victorino circling the bases with that smirk of his (Do I only see this?) and high-fiving his teammates irritated me.
We lost the lead
Pedro Feliz came up to bat, only to lineout to Manny. We had two outs in top of eighth. As much as I hated losing the lead, we were still tied, 5-5. Carlos Ruiz came up to bat and swung on the first pitch that was delivered to him and smacked a single to Manny. Torre saw enough and took Wade out and called Jonathan Broxton in.
It's coming
Broxton came in to face Matt Stairs, a lefty 40-year-old whom the Phillies picked up in the season.
Closer
Broxton battled Matt Stairs to a 3-1 count with 2 outs in the eighth with Carlos Ruiz on first. Dodger fans in Dodger Stadium cheering Broxton on. Broxton pitches his fastball right down the pipe...
BOOM!
Ladies and gentlemen. These are the Phillies we are facing. This is the team that ended our season last year. This is the team that won the war against us. This is the team who cheered victory in our house to get into the World Series.
We wanted a rematch, we begged for a rematch, we cried for a rematch (I did anyway). As it states in the bible:
Ask, and it will be given to you; seek, and you will find; knock, and it will be opened to you.
-Matthew 7:7
We got our rematch.
Here are the projected starters (Not lineup) for Game 1:
C Russel Martin
1B James Loney
3B Casey Blake
CF Matt Kemp
RF Andre Ethier
Phillies:
C Carlos Ruiz
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Raul Ibanez
CF Shane Victorino
RF Jayson Werth
You can examine a lot of things that go into the series, but I want to start with the most important; It has to be pitching.
Charlie Manuel will probably use the same strategy he used against the Rockies and use his lefty starters primarily. Hamels would pitch game one, Lee would probably pitch game two (short rest), and Happ would pitch game 3. I would not be surprised if Happ and Lee switch. Pedro or Joe Blanton would pitch game 4. Hamels has always been a thorn on the Dodgers' side, and my side as well, and the Dodgers should be prepared for him.
Don't be fooled by Hamels' high ERA number, which is sitting at 4.32. His FIP for the season has been 3.72, which is a difference of -0.61 compared to his ERA, so he's been unlucky. In his career against the Dodgers, he's been stellar. The Dodgers as a team are hitting .240/.280/.377 with an OPS of .621 against Hamels (I included the playoffs).
Here is what the Dodgers have done against Hamels (Starters in bold), I've also included their numbers against lefties this seasons. Against Hamels//Against lefties this season, they're in order with highest OPS:
Manny Ramirez - .385 .467 .692 1.159// . 270 .379 .514 .893
Matt Kemp - .412 .444 .529 .973// .362 .380 .508 .888
James Loney - .294 .333 .529 .862// .274 .368 .411 .779
Ron Belliard - .269 .296 .538 .834// .282 .363 .479 .841
Russell Martin - .188 .278 .375 .653// .275 .413 .343 .756
Casey Blake - .250 .286 .300 .586// .320 .442 .563 1.005
Juan Pierre - .250 .250 .333 .583// .320 .414 .400 .814
Andre Ethier - .188 .188 .313 .501// .194 .283 .345 .629
Mark Loretta - .250 .250 .250 .500// .279 .364 .345 .709
Orlando Hudson - .167 .167 .250 .417// .293 .361 .493 .854
Brad Ausmus - .000 .200 .000 .200// .333 .379 .426 .805
Rafael Furcal - .071 .071 .071 .142// .296 .365 .451 .815
Two of our hottest hitters, Ethier and Furcal, are hitting just 4 of 30 from Hamels, so they should continue to tear up the post-season and show that their numbers against Hamels are flawed. On the other hand, we should expect big things from Manny, Bison, and Loney. More on the other hand, Hamels is a lefty and Dodgers hitting as a whole against lefties is .276, which is eighth best in the majors. Philadelphia are hitting .248, which is fifth worst in the majors. Both team's OPS are almost equal, the Dodgers' .786 and the Phillies' .787. We have the upper hand against lefties.
We will be starting Randy "Mr. Consistent" Wolf in Game one, and Clayton Kershaw in Game two. Randy was burnt in his last outing, but he should bounce back. Wolf against lefties this season is remarkable, his splits:
Vs. LHB
AVG - .159
OBP- .216
SLG - .200
OPS- .416
Vs. RHB
AVG - .246
OBP- .298
SLG - .423
OPS- .722
His 3.96 FIP isn't much to be impressed about, but I would guess that number would go far down if it was against lefties. This would cause trouble for Utley, Howard, and Ibanez, who all have a combined 110 home runs.
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Not only is ESPN seemingly uninformed about the Dodgers,
But, (Suprirse!) so is the rest of the sports world, apparently. Here are the numbers for the Sportsnation Polls:
Which Team Has The Better Line-Up?
Dodgers – 35%’
Phillies – 65%
Okay, I can understand that. I’d have to imagine it should be closer, but I can understand.
Which Team Has The Better Pitching Staff?
Dodgers – 45%
Phillies – 55%
Woah, what the hell? Is it not an empirical fact that we had the best pitching in baseball this year?
Which Team Is Better Defensively?
Dodgers – 44%
Phillies – 56%
Were the Phillies that good? I thought the dodgers definitely had above league-average fielding. Is it really that significant a difference?
The Phillies are that good, defensive wise
they had the second least amount of errors. Dodgers had 7 more than they did.
errors dont mean anything just ask the pirates
and the phillies lineup is way better
and the phillies do have a great defensive team probably better then the dodgers
and their pitching in no way is better… maybe they have better number 1 and 2 starters but that isnt the question
Well, if you look at the whole season I could see the Dodgers having the clear cut better starting pitching. But if you look at where things stand today, with the addition of Cliff Lee and the subtraction of Chad Billingsley (and possibly Hiroki Kuroda) for us. I can’t argue with those numbers, esp given that there is probably an east coast bias built into them.
vr, Xei
The saddest part of your recap to me:
second baseman, Angel Berroa
So is the biggest upgrade from last year’s NLCS Belliard/Hudson vs. Berroa/DeWitt or Sherrill vs. Wade?
Good question
At first I thought Belly/Hudson, but Sherrill is definitley a big upgrade over wade in the playoffs.
woaah
wade was excellent last year… whip of 1
yes we knew he was a time bomb ready to explode with his striaght 89 mph fastball but he was GREAT last year no denying that
There was plenty of denying Wade’s greatness last year, both here and on Dodger Thoughts. He had a very good season, basically out of nowhere, but it was pointed out several times that his 2.27 ERA was not sustainable. His FIP (3.72) and x-FIP (4.07) suggested he was lucky, but he was still a very good asset out of the pen.
That said, Sherrill is a bit over his head as well. I don’t have his seasonal numbers in front of me, but his FIP (3.19 with Baltimore, 3.01 with LA) and x-FIP (4.39/3.87) suggest he’s not quite as good as his 1.70 ERA suggests. That said, he’s still an upgrade over Wade, especially given his greatness against LHB.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 13, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
padilla was excellent this year so far … whip of 1.14
yes we knew he was a time bomb ready to explode with his long-term mediocrity and his so-so breaking stuff but he was GREAT this year no denying that.
;)
I hope Padilla’s carriage doesn’t turn into a pumpkin like Wade’s did.
I think switching Leauges helped Padilla
For that same reason I would be nervous having him pitch two games in the series.
the last time vicente padilla pitched against the phillies
he went 6 innings and gave up 7 ER… the phillies lineup had the same people in it that they have now.,….. ON THE SAME DAY…. The Los angeles dodgers got NO HIT by the Angels and still won the game….
is this a sign of good things to come or a bad sign??
well when was this game?
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
June 28, 2008. In Texas, starting at 7:07 P.M. Check out the weather:
Start Time Weather: 90° F, Wind 12mph out to Rightfield.Utley and Howard took him deep, no surprise in that park with the wind blowing out.
Probably more an indication that Padilla
is way up or way down depending on how is stuff is that day.
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