Here's the win probability chart for Game 1 of the NLCS. There were some big shifts in this game, with the biggest being Carlos Ruiz's three run bomb that cut the Dodgers' odds of winning in half (from 50.7% to 25.2%).
Ryan Howard's double later in the inning that put the Phillies up 5-1 cut the Dodgers' odds in half again (from 25.2% to 11.2%). The Dodgers showed resiliency, raising their odds up to 46.5% after a 6th inning Ronnie Belliard single put runners on first and second with one out and the Dodgers down a run, but they were never again favored to win the game.
The Dodgers had some life until Raul Ibanez's three run blast cut their win expectancy from 17.4% to a mere 3.8%. The final blow was when Casey Blake grounded into a double play in the bottom of the 9th, cutting the Dodgers odds from 19.1% to 1.6%.
The most valuable player (using win probability) was Carlos Ruiz, who had .275 win probability added. He was closely followed by Chan Ho's .240 WPA, and the two most valuable Dodgers were James Loney (.193) and Andre Ethier (.176). Five other Phillies had at least .060 WPA but no other Dodgers did.
Ultimately the game could have gone either way. The Dodgers had more baserunners than the Phillies but the Phils happened to hit homeruns in the only innings where more than one of their batters reached base. It was a tough loss but there's no reason to lose hope.
about 1 month ago
Brendan Scolari
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The thread Eric created was too emo.
So I’m taking over this thread!!!!
by Tripon on Oct 15, 2009 10:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
desecrator cough cough :)
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 15, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 15, 2009 11:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
eh shoulda seen that coming :/
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 15, 2009 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of all the schmucks to hit 3-run homeruns, it just had to be Ruiz and Ibanez. Our pitchers just choked. Philly had the same inconsistent strike zone we had, yet we issued 7 walks and they only issued 3.
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
by Jesse Sparks on Oct 16, 2009 12:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, for sure a tough way to lose this one.
Dodgers score 6 runs and end up losing because of an elevated, middle-in fastball to Ruiz and a hanging slider right down the pipe to Ibanez. That said, with the Phillies’ power, the Dodger hitters have to take advantage of the opportunities they get. The bases loaded groundout by Furcal in the 6th, Going 1-2-3 after Etier leads off the 7th with a double, and only getting 1 run on 4 hits in the 8th put a particularly sour taste in my mouth.
The important thing is, the most inconsistent aspect of the team showed up last night, we can expect the pitching to bounce back tomorrow. Offense needs to come through with another 6!
by K3vo on Oct 16, 2009 12:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, there were 2 runs in the 8th, my mistake. Still seems we should have gotten more out of that inning.
by K3vo on Oct 16, 2009 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On a more upbeat note. . .
who is hoping a Padilla purpose pitch clears the bases and Pedro goes after Larry Bowa?
by K3vo on Oct 16, 2009 1:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
this really was an unpleasant loss that I'm unfortunatly already losing sleep over, its 3 AM here : (
These losses to Phillies really seem to sting because of the unlikely manner in which they win them. Whether its stairs or ruiz jacking huge go ahead homers, or our most trustworthy relievers giving up huge deflating home runs, it just doesnt seem to add up.
I’m not gonna criticize Torre’s decision to leave in Kershaw after the fact, but the more I think about it all, this game was just really frustrating and odd. All we can do tomorrow is dust ourselves off and play like the season depends on it, because at least in my mind, a loss tomorrow seals the deal.
William Doolittle at your service, a.k.a. will do.
by Ollie on Oct 16, 2009 1:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
1am here, so I'm not quite at your level.
I totally agree with you, I think that earlier int he season, without a body of work behind him, O take Kershaw out in favor of Elbert. Hoever over the past few months he has been so good I leave him in. I can’t fault Torre on this loss either. The one word that best describes this game, and several other postseason games against the Phillies is: improbable, iit is absolutely maddening.
by K3vo on Oct 16, 2009 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The silver lining for me in this game was that we finally got to Cole Hamels. He doesn’t scare me as much now when we face him again.
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
by Jesse Sparks on Oct 16, 2009 1:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ya but unfortunatly we have lee to go through this year
and I know thats what we said before facing carpenter and wainwright, but there’s so many question marks around Kuroda as well. And as much as I hate to say it, the whole McCourt debacle makes me so much more desperate to just see us in the World Series this year. We don’t even have to win, I just want to see what it feels like.
There would be no shame in losing to this phillies team, they are a great team, unfortunately it would mean we’re left disappointed though because this team is good enough to play in a World Series too. This sounds a little defeatist, and I’m trying to keep the fighting spirit, I just need to ramble a bit more before we kick back into gear tomorrow afternoon.
William Doolittle at your service, a.k.a. will do.
by Ollie on Oct 16, 2009 1:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kershaw had to be taken out....
…as soon as possible. He’s a young pitcher, and when things go south for him, they go in a hurry. As soon as he even hinted at faltering, they should have brought in Kuo—-don’t even get me started on why they need Weaver instead of Elbert. I don’t understand why Torre hooked Wolf so quickly and left Kershaw in—-the announcers said it was to see him “grow up.” Let him grow up during the off-season. Bad, slow decision making by Torre. OK—-we need to win this one, or else it is see ya later, baby.
"It's a cookbook!"---The Twilight Zone
by Buck18 on Oct 16, 2009 8:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Kershaw will pitch again this series. With that in mind, I have no problem with when Joe pulled Clayton out of the game. I would much rather have Clayton pissed off at himself for melting down in the 5th inning, than to have Clayton pissed off and resentful of Joe for yanking him out of the game too earlier. It will motivate Clayton to reach a new level with his next start.
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 16, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"don’t even get me started on why they need Weaver instead of Elbert"
Then don’t mention it.
Weaver is sick. Elbert is not. Elbert is left handed and probably a better pitcher.
by mwhite06 on Oct 16, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was a tough loss but time to bounce back
That’s how the Dodgers lost last year, not bouncing back from tough losses that could have went either way. We’re supposed to be a year older and smarter, so let’s start using it.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 16, 2009 8:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
george sherrill and corey wade
what is the difference between them except for one is a lefty and one is a right and the fact that sherrill kills leftys in the regular season
corey wade throw a 90 mph fastball same with sherrill
they both have great breaking pitches… and at leaast wade has a good changeup which can get the opposite hand out while sherrill has to throw a fastball slider combo to try to get out rightys which is hard when you only throw 90
sherrill is corey wade 2.0
by matthewmafa on Oct 16, 2009 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ibanez simply owned Sherrill last night. He ate up that curveball like a piece of Prime Rib.
I think Kuo has earned set-up duties for the remainder of the series. At least he throws 97 and is not a left handed Cory Wade.
by silverwidow on Oct 16, 2009 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
One bad pitch and you are jumping all over Sherrill? he had a shitty outing for sure. You have to look at the tiny strikezone last night as a mitigating factor though. he had 3 straight high and tight fastballs that were borderline strikes called against him. The strike zone called last night made it tough on every pitcher, especially a young one with occasional control problems, and one that relies upon location. You cant make the assumption that last nights game was indicitave of future performance.
by K3vo on Oct 16, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
WHAt??
all of sherrills pitches were wayyyyy out of the zone… not even close…
by matthewmafa on Oct 16, 2009 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another game those could be strikes
by Dodger Dude on Oct 16, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
u must be kidding
they were wayyy out the zone
by matthewmafa on Oct 16, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sherril
has been pitching over his head since he got to the Dodgers. It was only a matter of time before he started regressing to the mean.
Kuo is a better pitcher. The only reason Kuo is not the set-up man is because Sherril has a “proven closer” tag.
by mwhite06 on Oct 16, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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