FanShot

Nothing like a nice comeback to wash away the sorrow of a disappointing loss. The Dodgers win...

3
20091016_phillies_dodgers_144609039_home

Nothing like a nice comeback to wash away the sorrow of a disappointing loss. The Dodgers win probability actually never got below 25% in yesterday's contest. The biggest win probability swing in the Phillies favor was on Ryan Howard's homerun when their odds of winning jumped from 48.2% to 59.7%. The Dodgers two biggest win probability shifts obviously came in the bottom of the 8th inning. They entered the inning witha 41.1% chance of winning, and got their odds up to 49.6% when Russell Martin came to the plate and reached on an error by Chase Utley which bumped their win expectancy to 61.0%. But the biggest jump came on Andre Ethier's bases loaded walk, the Dodgers win expectancy went from 63.5% to 87.4%. Those two at bats had a leverage indez above 5, meaning they were more than five times as important as an average at bat. The MVP of the gam (per win probability) was easily Pedro Martinez, whose .450 win probability added was more than double the next closest player, Vicente Padilla with .207 WPA. Ethier (.157), Martin (.152), and Thome (.141) also made key contributions for the Dodgers. The Least Valuable Player was Matt Kemp, whose -.246 was more than twice as bad as any other Dodger. Of course 57% of his negative contribution came on his stikeout in the 8th inning, and whiffing against a guy with more than a strikeout per inning in 2009 is nothing to be ashamed of. Finally, as Phil said in the recap below the Dodgers odds of winning the series are now 51.9%. That's not too bad all things considered.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker