Dodgers vs Phillies, Game #4 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 7:30PM)

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator is the first to come out with odds for Game #4 and it has the Dodgers as very slight favorites.  This is a "must win" game for the Dodgers as Cole Hamels is the scheduled starter in Game #5 and Cliff is gauranteed of atleast a Game #7 start if the series were to go that far.  Vegas has the Phillies as slight favorites and there is over a 6% difference between my Simulator and Vegas.  Vegas is probably factoring in the psychological advantage that the Phillies have (atleast in the minds of the betting public) after their 11-0 massacre of the Dodgers in Game #3.  AccuScore has almost identical results as my simulator.  Must be the 11-0 hangover that has the Phillies as such strong favorites.

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.