Dodgers vs Phillies, Game #5 Simulation
I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Tuesday at 6:30PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | AccuScore |
| LAN | PHI | V.Padilla vs C.Hamels | PHI | 56.71% | 59.88% | 55% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The Phillies are moderate favorites to close out the series in five games. AccuScore and Vegas are giving the Phillies a win probability between 55 and 57 percent, while my simulator is singing a more pessimistic tune for the Dodgers, with the Phillies nearly tipping the 60% win probability plateau. I hope the simulator is under estimating the deftness of Vicente Padilla, who was sent to the Dodgers by a devine hand to help save the Dodgers season.
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Top 50 Most Likely Scores |
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| 1 | PHI 3-2 |
| 2 | PHI 4-3 |
| 3 | PHI 5-4 |
| 4 | LAN 3-2 |
| 5 | LAN 4-3 |
| 6 | PHI 2-1 |
| 7 | PHI 4-2 |
| 8 | PHI 6-5 |
| 9 | LAN 5-4 |
| 10 | PHI 5-3 |
| 11 | PHI 3-1 |
| 12 | PHI 4-1 |
| 13 | PHI 5-2 |
| 14 | LAN 4-2 |
| 15 | LAN 2-1 |
| 16 | PHI 5-1 |
| 17 | LAN 5-3 |
| 18 | PHI 6-3 |
| 19 | LAN 3-1 |
| 20 | PHI 6-4 |
| 21 | PHI 6-2 |
| 22 | LAN 5-2 |
| 23 | LAN 6-4 |
| 24 | LAN 6-5 |
| 25 | PHI 7-6 |
| 26 | PHI 6-1 |
| 27 | PHI 3-0 |
| 28 | LAN 6-3 |
| 29 | LAN 4-1 |
| 30 | PHI 2-0 |
| 31 | PHI 4-0 |
| 32 | PHI 1-0 |
| 33 | PHI 7-4 |
| 34 | PHI 7-2 |
| 35 | PHI 7-3 |
| 36 | LAN 5-1 |
| 37 | PHI 7-5 |
| 38 | PHI 5-0 |
| 39 | LAN 6-2 |
| 40 | PHI 7-1 |
| 41 | LAN 7-5 |
| 42 | LAN 7-3 |
| 43 | PHI 6-0 |
| 44 | LAN 7-4 |
| 45 | PHI 8-3 |
| 46 | LAN 7-6 |
| 47 | LAN 3-0 |
| 48 | PHI 8-2 |
| 49 | PHI 8-1 |
| 50 | LAN 7-2 |
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Game Pitching Results |
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| Pitcher | IP | SO | BB | HR | WHIP | FIP |
| V.Padilla | 6.5 | 4.683 | 2.369 | 1.055 | 1.398 | 4.971 |
| C.Hamels | 7.1 | 6.387 | 1.604 | 0.825 | 1.172 | 3.588 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||||
| Name | wOBA | Name | wOBA | |
| 1 | R.Furcal | .3068 | J.Rollins | .3401 |
| 2 | R.Belliard | .3133 | S.Victorino | .3468 |
| 3 | A.Ethier | .3097 | C.Utley | .3845 |
| 4 | M.Ramirez | .3675 | R.Howard | .3974 |
| 5 | M.Kemp | .3382 | J.Werth | .3627 |
| 6 | J.Loney | .2988 | R.Ibanez | .3668 |
| 7 | C.Blake | .3125 | P.Feliz | .3019 |
| 8 | R.Martin | .2981 | C.Ruiz | .3081 |
| 9 | V.Padilla | .1381 | C.Hamels | .1510 |
21 comments
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Comments
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vr, Xei
im just wodnering
why does it say LAN instead of LAD
LAN = Los Angeles National
LAA = Los Angeles American
My database feed uses those abbreviations.
Also,
NYA = New York American
NYN = New York National
Hope that helps.
vr, Xei
oh alright
was wondering why it wasnt just lad laa nyy nym but it doesnt really matter
by matthewmafa on Oct 20, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Totally unrelated but
What does SFO mean?
SFO = San fransisco Giants, but what does the ‘O’ stand for?
Airport code perhaps? Xei, is San Diego “SAN” too?
by Eric Stephen on Oct 20, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions
My DB uses SD and SF for the Padres and Giants respectively. The SFO is probably the airport code like someone stated. Different stat services use slightly different abbreviations. I was use to the LAD, NYM, NYY, CHC and CWS before I had to switch to, LAN, NYN, NYA, CHN and CHA. It makes automating easy to go with whatever the stat service uses.
vr, Xei
San Fran Offense
but its missing the “M” for Missing
by matthewmafa on Oct 20, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just wondering...
…does the simulator take non-tangibles into account? Such as must-win motivation? Or lets-win-it-here-so-we-don’t-have-to fly-cross-country-again thinking?
No
I heard he is working on a “clutch” input though.
by Michael White on Oct 21, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Non-tangible Correction Factors
He’s a Gamer (competitor, etc.) (add+.4% WP)
He knows how to play the game the right way (add+.8% WP)
He’s patient at the plate (add+.2% WP)
He’s been here before (add+0.4% WP)
He Fists It . . . ! (-8.2% WP)
Source: Baseball Reference (way towards the back)
Patient at the plate is tangible
OBP would be a good place to look.
Or you can note the pitches per plate appearance.
by Michael White on Oct 21, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

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