Dodger Roster Breakdown
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:15 AM PDT
in Roster
302 comments
There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:
Free Agents (13+1)
Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf
Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**
Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver
*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.
If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.
There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.
**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.
What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only
Options (2)
- Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
- Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.
What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration
Arbitration Eligible (9)
| Player | Service Time | 2009 Base Salary |
| George Sherrill | 4.147 | $2,750,000 |
| Jonathan Broxton | 4.020 | $1,825,000 |
| Andre Ethier | 3.153 | $3,100,000 |
| Russell Martin | 3.150 | $3,900,000 |
| Hong-Chih Kuo | 3.114 | $437,000 |
| Chad Billingsley | 3.110 | $475,000 |
| Matt Kemp | 3.049 | $467,000 |
| James Loney | 3.012 | $465,000 |
| Jason Repko | 3.067 | $500,000 |
Look for: Repko to get non-tendered
Under Contract (4)
| Player | 2009 Salary | 2010 Salary |
| Rafael Furcal | $10,500,000 | $8,500,000 |
| Juan Pierre | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 |
| Casey Blake | $5,250,000 | $6,000,000 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | $10,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
Under Team Control (15)
| Player | Service Time | 2009 Base Salary |
| Ramon Troncoso | 1.119 | $401,000 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1.105 | $404,000 |
| Cory Wade | 1.096 | $402,500 |
| Eric Stults | 1.072 | $402,000 |
| Blake DeWitt | 1.048 | $405,000 |
| James McDonald | 1.004 | $400,750 |
| Ronald Belisario | 1.000 | $400,000 |
| Chin-Lung Hu | 0.153 | $401,000 |
| Xavier Paul | 0.151 | $400,000 |
| Charlie Haeger | 0.125 | $400,000 |
| Scott Elbert | 0.097 | $400,000 |
| Brent Leach | 0.090 | $400,000 |
| A.J. Ellis | 0.081 | $400,000 |
| Travis Schlichting | 0.055 | $400,000 |
| Lucas May | 0.000 | ------ |
Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:
Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency
November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)
December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation
December 10: Rule 5 draft
December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players
It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.
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Just to clarify
If the Dodgers decide to exercise the mutual option on Garland and pay him $10 Million in 2010, then the Diamondbacks are on the hook for zero outlay?
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know the answer to that. I would guess they would still pay $1 million, but that’s just a guess.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cheap Rotation
Kershaw
Kuroda
Billingsley
McDonald
Haeger
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
For optimum cheapness
Replace Elbert for Kuroda and trade Kuroda to the Mets for minor leaguers.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Expensive Rotation
Keshaw
Billingsley
Kuroda
Lackey
Garland
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Biggest Risk Rotation
Kershaw
Kuroda
Billingsley
McDonald or Haeger or Elbert
Harden or Sheets or Bedard
Someone could sign Harden and Sheets and Bedard and either hit the jackpot or be using AA pitchers by June 1st. Lot of talent, lot of risk.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmm. . . I could get with this
Kershaw
Kuroda
Billingsley
Halladay
Sheets – we sign him to like a base $5M, 3 yr contract that is HUGE on incentives, #1 being if he finishes the season.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
scratch Sheets
I meant Webb. Christ that guy’s good. With his sinker and our D, he’s a threat to have a shutout every night!
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2009 becomes 2010 rotation
Keshaw
Billingsley
Kuroda
Padilla
Garland
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Canuck Rotation
Keshaw
Billingsley
Kuroda
McDonald
Elbert
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Silverwidow Rotation
Keshaw
Billingsley
Withrow
Lindblom
Elbert
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes I know Keshaw should be Kershaw
read it, realize I made a mistake, move on.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ramirez You have got to be kidding me!
So we are stuck with Ramirez, a steroid casualty whose bat slowed down so much that mediocre pitchers were challenging him—-and winning? Plus, the guy is out of it because of all the use (or misuse) if chemicals over the years. The thing is, no other team wants him, no other team will touch him. So, once again, LA takes in a refugee (see Padilla), and hopes for the best.
"It's a cookbook!"---The Twilight Zone
by Buck18 on Oct 22, 2009 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Be glad it isn't three more years
like so many felt we should give him. He may not be worth his $20 Million but he’ll still produce enough that for the most part we won’t mind.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Remember last year at this time. The number being thrown around on the blogs were 4 years $100MM.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The one good thing about this offseason & Manny
is that we will know by November 10.
There will be no 4 months of wondering, waiting and worrying, because if he opts out he’s gone.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
... and then we'll make a chase for
MATT HOLLIDAY
(Dun dun duuun)
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I highly doubt that.
No Manny = Juan Pierre, 162 starts
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It may increase their willingness to enter the trade market for Halladay though IMO
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would expect Xeifranks
simulation to have Manny accepting the option at around 99.9%.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yep
It was probably the same as the Cardinals’ win expectancy in Game 2 as Loney’s soft liner was floating to Matt Holliday.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha Ha
I guess the 1% chance he could retire or just decide he will take lesser money to DH somewhere.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
why in earth would he do that??
he is in a team that has a chance to contend for a tittle and is locatred in LA, no sense taking less money
by XXDC2XX on Oct 23, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot to add
if Manny opts out, which again is highly unlikely, the Dodgers won’t get some great windfall, at least for the 2010 budget.
If Manny comes back:
2010 salary received: $10,000,000 (the other $10m is deferred, along with the $15m less suspension from 2009, to 2011-2013)
If Manny opts out:
2010 salary received: $3,633,880 (1/3 of his $15m deferred from 2009, less money lost from suspension)
So the total gain to the budget if Manny opts out for 2010 is only $6,366,120
http://www.truebluela.com/2009/1/14/720656/dodger-payroll#manny
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
but with the McCourt’s divorcing, who knows how that will affect things.
I think they are unlikely to add long-term money anyway this offseason. Maybe they do trade for Halladay with his one year left and see how that goes. Just a guess
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To many cheap kids would have to leave for that to happen
then again they knew they were in trouble when they traded Bell/Johnson for Sherrill so maybe you be right.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading for Halladay
Would be like getting car insurance after you wrecked your car. His value is certainly down from the trading deadline, but exactly how much?
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two reasons the Jays won't get as much for Halladay
1) The price of Cliff Lee lowered the bar
2) The acquiring team now only gets Doc for one postseason (potentially) and not two.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would Kershaw have to be the main piece in a deal for Doc?
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No chance
but Billingsley for sure.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
He’s untouchable. A deal could be done without any 25-man roster guys, but it might include Billingsley considering what transpired in the second half decline in his status.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am on record as advocating a trade for Halladay, but I would not include Bills if I had a choice.
But if the team did include Bills in a trade, it’s worth noting they will likely shave $3.5 to $4m off their budget (his likely arbitration figure) to be able to help absorb the $15.75m of Doc.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so much his decline
as much as the Blue Jays need someone to step right in right now to replace Doc. With the incredible ascension of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind they have a tiny window to compete right now if things break right.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the thinking inside Toronto is they can compete right now
they shouldn’t trade Halladay.
I don’t know if those expectations are realistic, but if that is the base line you are operating under, why trade Halladay at all?
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They shouldn't
until they find out they can’t compete. I would never trade him this winter but if by July, McGowan and Marcum didn’t augment the rotation enough to compete then I’d do the deal.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a moving scales thing, but the Jays need to figure out which is better for them:
Option A
Trade Halladay this winter, get more suitors (who think they are in the hunt, and a full season of Doc will help them get over the hump), but acknowledge they won’t compete
Option B
Keep Halladay until July, just in case they can compete. They would have less suitors then (fewer teams in a position to get Doc), and might get less with less demand
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess it depends on the point of view, but I don’t see Toronto competing for a playoff spot with the 2 monsters and Tampa Bay in their way.
In the Twins’ case in 2008, I think they would have been better off keeping Johan. They would have likely made the playoffs with him (they lost in a 1-gm playoff w/o him) and the two draft picks would have been a reasonable comparison to the package they got from the Mets.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant his decline would make Bills more likely to trade, in the eyes of the Dodgers
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It could be Withrow and Gordon
and we will never hear from Silverwidow again
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it would have to be
Withrow, Lindblom, and Eovaldi for that to happen to Silverwidow. However I think he’d drop by once the Dodgers were in the world series on the backs of Halliday, Kershaw, and Billingsley.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
My logic, or attempt to figure out the club’s logic is this:
1) The club feels it needs a frontline starting pitcher
2) Free agents of any caliber will likely require 4-6 years, something I don’t think the team would commit to whether or not the McCourts have to sell
3) Trading for an ace will costs prospects, yes, but would likely assure another year of playoff revenue (not to say we wouldn’t still make the playoffs without one of course)
4) Halladay has one year and $15.75m left on his contract, so the effective price in money would be roughly $9.38m (Manny savings factored in)
There would be no long term commitment, and even if the prospects damage the team long term, it wouldn’t matter since the McCourts are likely cashing out anyway.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the McCourts
are cashing out, then this could be a very interesting winter. It will be interesting to find out if the new Toronto GM had a different view of our prospects then the previous regime.
I bet in retrospect the Indians wished they had taken whatever package we had offered compared to what they got for Lee.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would love to find out exactly what the Dodger offer was for Lee. Oh to be a fly on the wall :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you know it was at least Bell
and Bell is ranked higher than any of the players Philadelphia unloaded in that deal.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know WTF
why does that always seem to happen?
frustrating
by hirambocachica on Oct 22, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Manny opts out
Year-by-Year savings
2010: $6,366,120
2011: $3,333,333
2012: $3,333,333
2013: $6,967,213
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not as much as I thought it would be
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s still $20 million, just spread out
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even less than $20 million when you discount it for time passed.
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
by Jesse S. on Oct 22, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hoffarth Rotation
Doc Halladay
Kershaw
Kuroda
Haeger
Garland
Bye Bye
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Plaschke Rotation
Oswalt
Doc Halladay
Kuroda
Garland
Pedro Martinez
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Dear God ...
and no Matt Kemp or Manny and Pierre batting leadoff and Eckstein playing 2nd.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My rotation
I’ll jump in the fun
Kershaw
Billingsley
Kuroda
McDonald
Harden/Elbert/Haeger
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 10:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lefty Rotation
Kershaw
Wolf
Elbert
Bedard
Washburn
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Second your No
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine but find me a lefty
who would be a realistic acquisition.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doug Davis :)
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Oct 22, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stay in house with Stults
I don’t think Washburn is much better anyway and Stults and his salary is certainly a better value.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally whiffed on Stults
If we are going to have fun with an all lefty rotation then Eric has to be in the rotation.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power Righty Rotation
Billingsley
Sheets
Withrow
Harden
Doc Halladay
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
2005 Redux Rotation
Padilla
Kuroda
Haeger
McDonald
Stults
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
ugh … don’t forget to have a broken down 30 something career backup catcher batting 3rd and playing 1st base.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My rotation
Kershaw
Billingley
Kuroda
Harden
Wolf
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 10:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What happens when the last three guys in your rotation are all hurt?
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My rotation vol. 2
Kershaw
Billingsley
Kuroda
Harden (1-year, 5-8 million with incentives)
JMAC
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You sure jettisioned
Wolf quickly. Stick to your guns, you can always have McDonald/Elbert/Haeger/Withrow waiting in the wings for when Kuroda/Harden/Wolf get hurt.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just thought we would maybe offer Wolf a 3+ year deal
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, Wolf will probably require a 3-year deal somewhere in the $8-$10m guaranteed range. I would offer him arb, be ecstatic if he accepts, but expect him to decline then sign elsewhere.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too risky to give Wolf three years
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But do you think Colleti agres
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could see him doing two years
knowing that Kuroda is gone after next year. But not three.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
rotation
Billingsley
Kershaw
Kuroda
Wolf or padilla
Haeger or Elbert
by hirambocachica on Oct 22, 2009 10:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What could have been rotation
Kershaw
Edwin Jackson
Greg Miller
Chad Billingsley
Chuck Tiffany
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I remember Chuck Tiffany
He was my cousin’s friend when he went Charter Oak High school in Covina. Saw him in a family party.
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rotation:
Kershaw
Wolf
Kuroda
Billingsley
JMac
By the way, what is the expected base financial commitment the Dodgers are in for, assuming they do not sign any free agents (but assuming Manny picks up the option)?
It’d be interesting to see how much wiggle room we have to look at guys like Harden, Sheets etc. I really think that starting pitching is the only area we really need to think about for free agency. I’m still confident in our bullpen and in the offense (since we aren’t planning on replacing Furcal anytime soon)
by Talka1ot on Oct 22, 2009 11:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
http://www.truebluela.com/2009/1/14/720656/dodger-payroll
Right now I estimate the 2010 payroll to be roughly $95 million. And that’s without addressing 2B or adding any starting pitchers.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boggles the mind that the Dodgers are still paying in 2010 Schmidt , Nomar, and Andruw Jones
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and will pay Jones through 2014. Ugh
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright, that leaves us with about 10-15 million in room for Free Agents
If Belliard goes for under 3 million (and I think that’s reasonable) we will have about 10 million for a big name starter, if we so choose to avoid Wolfie. Hmm, I think that’ll be tough, especially since we don’t see to want to sign anybody long-term and only give them a little bit of the whole for the 2010 season.
by Talka1ot on Oct 22, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eric didn't we start
2009 at 99 Million?
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was somewhere around there…closer to $95m
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, no, it was right around $99/$100
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So if we stay the same
I see no room for adding any decent pitching without moving money. Still think Juan Pierre gets traded. Even if we eat 50% that free’s up enough money for a decent pitcher if they go that route.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What team do you think would take Pierre?
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure there's a few suitors for Pierre
at 2 years/ $10MM (assuming we eat 50%.)
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Pierre at a nice 50 percent discount would get a lot of attention this offseason.
by NotJoeTorre on Oct 22, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The SF Giants
he’s better than any of their 3 starting outfielders. How sad is that? Our 4th OF is better than their #1.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your right
He would be perfect for the “ground attack” club backed by one good bat and good pitching.
Hate to see him go there, but it would be very amusing to see MCC go ballistic :)
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You want to sign belliard
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Belliard only made 1.9 in 2009
as a 35 year old 2nd platoon 2nd baseman it is doubtful that he would get a raise. I’d let him go and not offer arbitration, but try to resign him for between 1 and 1.5 Million as insurance.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My rotation (June 1 2010)
Kershaw
Billingsley
J-Mac
Sheets
Kuroda
by delias man on Oct 22, 2009 11:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My rotation if money works out
Lackey
Kershaw
Billingsley
Kuroda
J-Mac/Elbert/Haeger
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Oct 22, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Kershaw
Bills
Kuroda
JMAC
Elbert/Harden
So do you consider Kuroda “homegrown”..
by NotJoeTorre on Oct 22, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nope. Too veterany when acquired
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they need more power. But they did hit HR’s, just none of the 3 run variety that was so popular for the opposition. I am not sure how to feel about that. Part of me wants to stick with their pitching guns already on board and figure out a way to add homeruns.
by delias man on Oct 22, 2009 11:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah there is only one open spot to fill, the spot being a traditional defense/light hitting spot.
by NotJoeTorre on Oct 22, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uggla?
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 22, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we want more power
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And we don't change any other position
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would not want him. But the only real Power options are him and Utley.
But Uggla shouldn’t be playing second anyways.
by NotJoeTorre on Oct 22, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Terrible defense, and so streaky it hurts. He’ll go three weeks looking like a champ then do nothing for 2-3 more weeks.
by nolander on Oct 23, 2009 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hope for more progression from the core
The increase of power this year over last year was a function of Ethier and Kemp progressing. I think that’s going to be the source of the power increases next year too. Manny declining should be offset by not having him miss 50 games. I think Ethier is just about at his prime now, so I hope Kemp progresses (which I expect) and Loney adds power (which I’m less optimistic about.)
I don’t expect much from Martin and Blake will likely decline next season.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do not know why Loney can not. Still young enough. They just HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHY HE CAN NOT HIT AT DS.
by delias man on Oct 22, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe they just need a full season of Manny
112 games w/Manny active: 0.98 HR per game, 1 HR every 40.11 PA
NL average: 0.96 HR per game, 1 HR every 40.10 PA
50 games w/o Manny: 0.70 HR per game, 1 HR every 56.34 PA
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, this team has enough power
but even if Manny isn’t suspended for 50 games he going to miss more games next year just due to his age. We actually had a very healthy season for the starting eight. Blake and Hudson were banged up but how many DL visits did our starting eight have?
Kuroda needs to stay healthy in 2010, it was a tough blow not having him for most of the year. Then again that was offset by Wolf pitching way beyond expectations.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I wouldn’t expect many to play 150 games. Maybe 130-135 or so in 2010.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am just upset with how many bombs PHI hit.
More than the dumb Kuroda decision, or the heartbreak of GM 4.
by delias man on Oct 22, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big blow to the D-backs!
Dbacks #1 prospect Jarrod Parker to visit Dr. James Andrews on Tue w/ intent of having Tommy John surgery on 10/28 #mlb
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 11:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thought that was coming with his problems this summer
also would not be surprised to find Bumgarner having the same visit in the next 12 months. I keep my fingers crossed on Kershaw, Billingsley, Withrow.
That is a real hammer to them.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Phil
TBLA Clips night still going on?
by PHAT JULIO on Oct 22, 2009 12:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, working on it right now
You guys okay for 42.50 in section 115? I can snag eight tickets but they will be behind the basket but in the first section.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've sent out an email based on the email in your membership
for all those who said they were interested in the TBLA/CLipper fanpost. It is coming from my work with the TBLA Clipper game in the subject. Look for it and respond ASAP.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couple of thoughts
1. It would not surprise if either the Dodgers or Hudson’s rep tries to work out some sort of deal where they pay the Dodgers some cash not to offer arbitration (especially if the Dodgers don’t want to resign him). I think they saw what happened last year to “Type A” free agents not named CC and Teixiera, so they would want to avoid that.
2. I only see an offer of arbitration to Wolf right now.
3. I could see a one-year deal offer to Padilla.
4. Repko will be non-tendered.
5. You will hear talk of extensions, the only player who might do it is Ethier, Stewart will hold out for another big year.
6. Big winter for Dewitt and McDonald.
7. Expect Halladay talk to heat up at the Winter Meetings.
by bhsportsguy on Oct 22, 2009 12:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We basically need two things:
Quality starters who are not off the scrap heap and an infielder or two (any position could be replaced) who can hit the ball consistently and far. I would say the priority is starting pitching, since we have acceptable stand-ins in the infield.
Offering Wolf and Orlando arbitration is a no brainer. If they accept they get locked in at market price with short term contracts and they are both good players for whom we have with no foreseeable replacement. Even if we had a replacement they are both very tradable players which will be paid at market rates. If we don’t offer it’s because we don’t have the money and we are in trouble. Other no brainer is to pick up the best, youngest, FA starter available. Guys like Kuroda and Padilla are fine for the back end of the rotation, but they have exhibited in the post season what they did all in the regular season: they are unpredictable and not consistent because they are beyond their prime.
I think everyone is being overly cost conscious in that this is a big market club who has just pocketed a ton of cash with all of the young salary capped guys playing. Adding a big contract starter is not too much too ask, especially with all of our bad deals expiring soon. At best for the foreseeable future we have Kershaw and Bills locked in as solid starters. Not nearly enough. We need at least two more which is a tall order. Since we still need to develop all of the other positions and have already burned enough prospects getting players who only kind of helped in the short term, we need to get that on the FA market. One addition by free agency has to happen in my opinion in the off season to net a stronger organization.
With the infield we have Dewitt as Casey’s replacement when he permanently begins to suck, Furcal is good for another year, O-dog or Bellie is probably the best we will get at 2nd who will cost us nothing but money as they will get a short contract. With Xavier and others coming up, the outfield looks good, Manny will be good for one more year. The pen is already set. I think the only thing missing there is the "Clockwork Orange" therapy of making Sherill, Brox, Belli, etc. watch all of the walk/bombs they gave up over and over again :), and then work on their confidence.
And I know you guys are trying to be as realistic as possible, but every single rotation I’ve seen proposed sucks as the best is a marginally better than this year. We seriously need to do addition by addition and not try to outsmart someone in a trade (Ned’s already got his once in a lifetime steal with Ethier). Also in my mind Kershaw and Billls are both untouchable, as if even if Bills is a number four starter, that still works, and there is nobody we can trade for who has more potential than K who is ready to pitch now.
The infielder who can hit like the outfield is another tall order without any near term prospects other than Dewitt.
Overall we are in good shape, but without good solid starting pitching I don’t know what type of club we are: above average hitting and above average pitching team? Well that us to the NLCS 2X, but obviously we need more chances than that to win the whole enchilada. Right now we are only looking at declining production on offense, and declining starting pitching with all but 2 of the starters. To make sure we get another shot, we need to hit better than the Phils and Rockies (not likely) or develop the best pitching staff in MLB (very likely with some more starters). The last time we won, our offense was very mediocre, and the Phils have just proven that they’re "just good enough" pitching works too. In my opinion the pen is set, you add top quality starters, and that even reinforces the pen more as our 5/6 starters get demoted. Then when we score are 4 or 5 runs we win, go on to the World Series, still have a farm system, and everybody’s happy.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 12:53 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It is not us being cost conscious
we are just following the lead of the McCourts. Last year they entered 2009 with a budget of $99Million, and with a shit load of deferred money. No one held a gun to their head and told them they needed to defer Manny and Jones contracts. That fact they did so means they have a budget they have decided to adhere to.
The current budget is at $95M when you look at Eric’s worksheet based on best guess estimates of arbitration contracts even with the plethora of FA contracts coming off the books. I’ve seen no indication that the McCourts are going to be increasing the budget in 2010 from 2009 so 4-5 Million is all I’d be working with when trying to decide future moves.
We may be a big market team but without the cable TV revenue that they other big market teams get, the McCourts are at a disadvantage until 2013. Sure they might surprise me and go higher but I was right about the budget last year and I expect I’ll be right about it again this year. The McCourts pockets are now overflowing with cash flow, they found out that many season ticket holders did not purchase the post season package so they are not sitting on as much cash as you would expect. They had 1000’s of tickets still available for the NLCS, which has been unheard of in this town.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The recession goes across every club. Free agent salaries go down accordingly, so I’m going to count that as a non-factor.
What happened to that 1/3 of Manny’s $25 salary? I guess the divorce lawyers already got paid in advance.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eric has reviewed that
probably better then anyone else in baseball.
If Manny opts out
Year-by-Year savings
2010: $6,366,120
2011: $3,333,333
2012: $3,333,333
2013: $6,967,213
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For 2009
Manny was “only” due to be paid $10 million. The other $15m was deferred. The suspension savings are as follows:
2009: $2,732,240
deferred yr 1: $1,366,120
deferred yr 2: $1,366,120
deferred yr 3: $1,366,120
The deferred years will be 2010-2012 if Manny opts out, or 2011-2013 (with more deferrals from 2010) if he stays.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"every single rotation I’ve seen proposed sucks as the best is a marginally better than this year."
You realize that even a marginal improvement over a rotation which won 95 games this year is pretty good right?
That’s dripping with so much disdain that you must be confusing the Dodgers with a team that struggled to win games.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disdain for whom?
The Dodgers did absolutely a great job with what they had available. The 5th starter spot probably had more wins than anybody on the rotation.
We have 2 starters who have still have not yet come into their prime. The other guys are getting old. Just standing still will be a major subtraction.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assume the 2 starters you are talking about are Kershaw and Billingsley
and the other guys who are getting old are Kuroda and who exactly? Wolf will likely be gone, which I’m fine with anyway because we should be thankful that he never missed significant time (which is shocking) and his ERA never normalized towards his x-FIP. He pitched over his head, we reaped the benefits, now he walks. Works for me.
I don’t see where the major subtraction is coming from. If you assume Kershaw and Billingsley will continue developing, I don’t see how those gains will be offset by Kuroda regressing. Besides, Kuroda simply didn’t contribute all that much this year due to injuries anyway.
I’m still bullish on McDonald and I would like to sign one of the high risk/ low price FA starting pitchers; my preference is Harden. Let Haeger and Elbert fill in from there.
Not sure where the major subtraction is.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wolf, Padilla, Weaver, yes Kuroda
Wolf was certainly somewhat lucky, he’s not a power pitcher, so it shouldn’t be a shock that when someone hits a mistake, they launch it, so that may explain some of the ERA discrepancy, but more than likely that was his best year of his career, so only one way to go there with ERA. Time after time he pitched giving up 1-3 runs, couldn’t be all luck. But even with his best we won 1 of 2 playoff games he started.
Scrapheap performed way above what we had any right to expect (Weaver, Milton, Schmit, Padilla etc.). The scrapheap ending up being our "ace" for fucks sake.
Kuroda has some good games left in him, but he’ll never be reliable at this point in his career. No way you count on any of that happening again.
I agree its probably a lot of roses with Kersh and Bills with some rough patches in a net gain, so maybe you are right, probably not so much a subtraction in talent. But after that I don’t see a lot. Bring Wolf back and he’s OK, Kuroda’s got a spot when he isn’t hurt. Still have Stults as a professional stop gap. I’m just thinking that’s not the best pitching staff in MLB. How many of those 95 games did the pen win? Is this really a 500 staff hiding behind the best pen and a good defense and a good offense?
The pen should close out games, if we had just asked them to do that this post-season, my hunch is that it goes a lot better. If we had less schlackings from our starting pitchers, granted the Phils were hitting out of their minds, my thinking is things would have gone better.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other then the Cardinal
sweep it did seem like we struggled to win games. What most are going to remember is the almost collapse at the end of the year and then the Phillie shellacking.
A healthy Kuroda helps but losing Wolf will hurt even more.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other than the Cardinal sweep it seemed like the Dodgers struggled to win games?
Even though they racked up 95 of them?
Or are you just talking about the post-season?
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No I was talking about the end of the year
when we almost blew an unblowable lead.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think your thoughts are well intentioned.
But consider this:
The Dodgers were good enough to win 95 games in the regular season and get to the playoffs. In my estimation there were 4 teams in the NL playoffs that were obscenely difficult to differentiate on paper. In the DS, the Dodgers overpreformed, whle thhe Cards very obvously underpreformed. In the CS, the dodgers Underpreformed while the Phills Overpreformed.
My point is that getting to the playoffs is goal #1 I think the core of this team is capable of that. After hat it is a matter of the players preforming at or above the level they are capable of.
by K3vo on Oct 22, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
John Lackey is the only "quality starter" available as FA
How’s he done getting his team to the World Series?
by bhsportsguy on Oct 22, 2009 1:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Healthy quality starter
on pure stuff Harden/Sheets/Bedard are all better but none of them can stay healthy.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They're all risky propositions
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very
just saying they all have better stuff then Lackey.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True and Lackey will probably want a long contract
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His Stats Make Him Look Not Any Better than Wolf
I’m not sure that’s going to help.
There has to be someone else. Maybe just wishful thinking.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It ain't easy to upgrade
nice article by MSTI on who might be available.
http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2009/10/22/lets-talk-about-aces/
Not very promising.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Dodgers are going to be aceless in 2010
and have the best team pitching in baseball again.
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How’s he done getting his team to the World Series?
The 2002 Giants say “hello!”
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 22, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Craig - you whiffed big time
it was like Kershaw threw you Uncle Charlie
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Something I’m missing?
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 22, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Craig = Bhsportsguy who posted the quote above
if your a Craig, sorry for the confusion.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any talk of McDonald going to play Winter Ball?
by delias man on Oct 22, 2009 1:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Both DeWitt and McDonald will play winter ball.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it safe to assume DeWitt is the opening day starter at 2b?
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hudson could accept arbitration I guess…
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m hoping he at least has the option to :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is his contract
based on his incentives or the base?
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the max cut rule applies only to the base, but it’s not going to matter.
If they went to arbitration, both sides would submit offers well above the $3.38m (or $2.6m) anyway.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
was just curious. Interesting that only the base counts for the 20% pay cut rule.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
About the same % as last year, maybe
I could see them bringing Belliard back and having a platoon at 2B, while mixing in some time at 3B to give Blake a rest too.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words
who knows, maybe th market will suck again and the Dodgers will fall into another can’t-pass-up pay for play deal like Hudson
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d rather have Belliard for half the price (or less)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are negating the value of chanting
Po Lan Co over and over
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not me
every game, I would have the Dodgers hire the guy who played Frances in Pee Wee’s Big Adventure to stand up and say “Hey look, it’s Placido Polanco!” every PA, just like Naked Gun.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s the second Enrico Palazzo reference I’ve heard today. Now I’m gonna be hearing Herman’s Hermit’s in my head for the rest of the day. Thanks Eric…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 22, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a backup or platoon right but not as as a starter, right
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
my plan has DeWitt at 2B against RHP, Belliard at 3B against LHP, and when Beard needs a rest DeWitt plays 3B with Belliard at 2B
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Belliard at 3rd NO NO NO
Tantrum NO
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Typo…that should have said 2B for Polanco
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify
vs RHP: DeWitt at 2B
vs LHP: Belliard at 2B
when Beard sits: DeWitt at 3B, Belliard at 2B
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tantrum withdrawn
but that does not feel like a strong lineup.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
WAR
Polanco
2007: 5.3
2008: 3.1
2009: 3.2
Belliard
2007: 2.4
2008: 1.7
2009: 1.3
Sure, it’s nice to save money but for a difference of 2 WAR I’d be willing to spend more per year, given it was a reasonable difference. Maybe a difference no more than $8M more per year.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That difference in WAR has to be all UZR related
since Polanco’s OPS was at .727 this year.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bingo
I forgot that WAR is a counting stat.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
Given more at bats Belliard may have upped or even downed his WAR. It’s a counting stat that counts “both” ways. Nobody knows, because he didn’t get the at bats in recent years. But I’d put much more weight on the known commodity. But a good point nonetheless. :)
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m trying to operate within the constraints of “we might only have $10m or so at most to spend this winter”
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and to tell you the truth, I really don’t want either one. Both are getting old.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only guy
who really doesn’t want to see Belliard again? He did a great job at the end of the year, but I have zero confidence he produces that way over a whole season.
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm only interested in Belliard as a back up guy
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know if I’d want him everyday, but as a part-timer he would be fine. His OPS+ the last 3 seasons are 102, 120, and 100.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Consider him as next years Mark Loretta
but a good version
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Am I wrong in thinking that he is going to have a lot bigger price tag than Loretta?
I hope the Giants sign him for an absurdly large contract. That seams like a very Sabean-centric move to me.
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Belliard signed his last contract in July 2007, in the midst of his 5th straight year as a regular (500+ PA), and signed for 2 years, $3.8m. And that was before the market tanked.
In 2008-2009 total he has 624 PA total. He’s a part-timer now, and will be paid accordingly.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright
I’m on board for no more than 4m for 2
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they should just offer him arbitration, and if he accepts gladly pay him in the low $2m range for one year. If he declines, they can still re-sign him, as you suggest, or just pocket the supplemental draft pick
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Belly
big 2nd halves the last two years. I mean big. Still he’s a platoon player at this stage of his career and he’ll get paid like one. When Durham/Grundy can’t get contracts in 2009, I doubt if Belly comes close to matching his 2009 salary.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
J-Mac and B-DeW for Licey.
Jamie Hoffmann for Escogido
http://www.truebluela.com/2009/10/11/1081030/diamond83-dodgers-james-mcdonald
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Graduate
Who are the most likely players to graduate from AAA to the 25 man roster next year. For this excercise I would count Dewitt as a AAA player.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 1:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The most likely is Dewitt
I would be surprised if he’s not on the 25 man come opening day.
Other than that, it really depends on free agent signings. One or a few of Wade, Elbert, Leach or Ellis could be on the 25 man to start the year.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a lot of those names will spend time rotating in and out of MLB
Elbert and Leach have the problem of some incredible lefties ahead of them in the pen.
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Elbert
would be added on the 25 man if he’s a starter. He has very little value if they plan on keeping him a RP (I don’t think that’s the plan.)
You are right about Leach. He’s basically an injury fill in, or if Sherril gets moved.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given the way they brought on some of the other pitchers
I would think he might have a spot in the bullpen and get an occasional spot start for his first full year.
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Long relief?
Possibly. But in that case, he wouldn’t really be blocked by having Sherril and Kuo on the 25 man.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He might have plenty of value as a RP
if he can become Billy Wagner or Mitch Williams. Sherrill had enough value to net Josh Bell/Johnson. So even if Elbert is only a dominant relief pitcher he has value.
I didn’t want Elbert on the post season roster this season because I don’t think he’s ready but I still think he’s got a live arm and repetition can get his command under control. I’m not down on him, just didn’t think he was ready for the post season after pitching so little in Aug/Sept.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
SSS
but Elbert ended up as one of only two Dodger pitchers this postseason not to give up a run. He pitched 1/3 of an inning, though, and of course had two walks.
Troncoso pitched 3 innings
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah not exactly an impressive 1/3 of an inning
since he walked the guys he was brought into get out. I’d expect his FIP for that 1/3 of an inning was …
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cole Hamel's FIP had to have been shit this series too
no bad luck here. Actually its good luck really. He’s responsible for the HR’s which came with nobody on base.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He only got awarded 1 win
Didn’t go 5 innings yesterday
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot about that. Details of yesterday’s game are not something I have tried to remember :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I mean how does DeWitt NOT take Castro's spot at the least?
Hell, he just might take Hudson’s!
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
SS
We have to carry a backup SS, right? Would you trust that to Dewitt?
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
Hudson/Castro/Loretta
becomes
DeWitt/Hu/Belliard
Just one such scenario
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not a bad plan
and probably the only way Hu makes MLB and stays. I don’t think that Ozzy Smith’s defense would offset his horrible bat.
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I don’t think that Ozzy Smith’s defense would offset his horrible bat."
No way did you just type that.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was largely sarcastic
I really hate to see Hu bat
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh.
I completely misread you. I thought you said the Oz’s D wouldn’t offset the OZ’S bat. Nevermind.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duh duh
duh duh duh duh
Aye aye aye
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hu?
I guess anything is possible, but we’d be in a world of hurt if Furcal and his bad back went down.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The same amount of hurt as if Castro had to play :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or 2009 pre - Sept Furcal
Let’s face it Furcal sucked offensively this year other than that brief Sept revival.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need to update his tally
What is that, 5 out of 24 months as a Dodger has he been good?
Just rough estimating…2nd half of 2006, April 2008, and Sept 2009
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albeit he was injured in 2008
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I still like him. But we seem to be chasing a dream with Furcal
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The increasingly improbable dream of a healthy and productive season
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but I never said anything about carrying Castro on the roster. I am just not a big fan of annointing Hu as our backup SS until he proves he can hit his weight at the MLB level. If his problem was purely his vision problems then I may change my mind. I’d go with Hu as 3rd string out of the gate with the chance to become 2nd string based on merit.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could deal with Hu as backup SS
as long as he had like less than 100 plate appearances
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You seem to have high expectations for a backup SS
considering what starting SS are doing these days in the post roid world.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Castro
He came into the season with a career high OBP of .290. Keep in mind this was over a 12-year career spanning parts of 14 seasons. (he did have one year with a .400 OBP…in all of 5 PA)
With his crazy hot start, Castro ended the year at .277/.311/.339, and the 72 OPS+ was the 3rd highest of his career.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
He was playing SS in the spring, right?
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most likely IMO
DeWitt
Elbert
Wade
Leach
Ellis
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Add the German Sch.....
Hoffman/Paul
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot about Paul. He’s probably 2nd or 3rd on my list.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Paul still a rookie
or did the DL while on the ML roster take care of that?
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still a rookie
needs 45 days on the active roster to lose eligibility
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paul was only active for 14 days
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what your saying is that he can be rookie of the year next year?
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the Marlins
They need a 2nd ex-Dodger to combine with Ross so when we meet them next year in the playoffs it will be just like 2008/2009.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More importantly
we can have another what kind of prospect is Xavier Paul this winter.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
that is the kind of stuff I like others to answer for me. I’m the opposite of Kim Ng.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you will be a GM in 2010?
Burn!
by Eric Stephen on Oct 22, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha
I don’t want my GM cluttering up his brain with that stuff, that is what interns are for. Attractive one’s, not the kind Stephen Philips goes for.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh man
as the game was exploding last night, I was reading some of the commentary on the internet about that incident. Hilarious stuff.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who did we offer for Halladay and who did the Jays request?
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know if that was really made public. There were tons of rumors. Not sure if anyone can pin that down. I sure don’t know.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure the offer for Halladay
was something like Bell +prospects and/ or maybe McDonald.
They were rumored to want Kershaw or Kemp or Billingsley and prosects with one of those players. I doubt if Toronto and LA were anywhere near a deal.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think all of the names were mentioned
but Ned said they wanted more than six guys.
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha Ha - This ain't San Diego State
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_box&gid=2009_10_22_pddwin_perwin_1
Our Peoria Javelinas kicked his ass all over the Arizona landscape with Russell Mitchell taking him deep in the 1st inning. Seven earned runs in less then 3 innings. Oh my
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I feel bad for the kid
There is no way he lives up to the hype that was generated about him.
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No way he stays healthy into his late 20's!!
Have you seen his mechanics? He’s a total anti-Lincecum.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've read that his mechanics are bad
But I know next to nothing about mechanics, so I’m easily convinced
by prosellis on Oct 22, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He throws with his arm only
as opposed to Lincecum who is almost no arm, all legs and midsection.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's looking at a Mark Prior type of career, done in about 3, 4 years tops.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't all the scouts say Prior had perfect form
coming out of college? I remember him being quite graceful, which is why his chronic injuries were surprising. Kerry Wood on the other had a very violent delivery, like Kevin Brown.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhm, no.
the A’s scouts said the problem with his delivery was that by the time his front foot hit the ground his elbow was facing up, putting a ton of strain on his arm (leading to arm problems at 25).
If you watch Lincecum pitch, when his front foot hits the ground, his elbow is down and his palm is facing up – it’s all legs.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hm. No kidding
He looked pretty graceful to me. But what do I know about these sort of things.
Thanks for the info. Interesting.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Midway down the page, nice article on Lincecum by Tom Verducci where he also covers Mark Prior.
Mark Prior is a classic example of a high-performing pitcher who was permitted to break down because of poor mechanics. Ironically, Prior was often hailed for his “flawless” mechanics when the Cubs drafted the righthander out of USC with the No. 2 pick in 2001, though that assessment seems to have been influenced by scouts’ preference for his 6’ 5", 225-pound body type. Studied closely, his mechanics included two severe red flags: 1) Prior lifted his throwing elbow higher than his shoulder before reaching the loaded position, increasing the stress on his elbow and shoulder; and 2) unlike Lincecum’s dynamic late torso rotation, Prior rotated his hips and torso before getting to the loaded position. With the letters of Prior’s jersey already facing the target, his arm could not simply “go along for the ride” — the ride was over, so his arm had to generate all of its own power.
Prior went 41-23 over his first four seasons in the big leagues. During that time, in 2003, when Prior was on his way to a career-high 18 wins, Peterson gave a presentation to the Oakland scouting department about “certain red flags in a delivery that we can’t do much about” as the A’s prepared for the draft. The idea was to avoid sinking large signing bonuses into players with a high potential to break down. (Late picks, because of their lower cost, don’t carry the same concern.)
One of Oakland’s scouts, responding to Peterson’s red-flag warnings, said, “Hey, that’s what Prior does. Are you saying that we shouldn’t draft a player like that?”
Replied Peterson, “No, not exactly. He’s one of the best pitchers in the league right now, but what I am saying is, If he doesn’t have maximum [shoulder] rotation, it will lead to injury. It’s like slamming the brakes over and over. The brake pads are going to wear out until it’s metal on metal.”
Prior has suffered a series of shoulder injuries that have limited him to one win and nine starts in the three seasons since. Still only 27, he is out for the season — again — after surgery to repair a tear in his right shoulder. “Prior is almost all upper body,” Chris Lincecum says. “You could cut his legs off and he would throw just as hard. I don’t like to put my finger on players, but I’ve been doing this a long time. I’ve said, ’He’s going to blow his elbow out’ or ‘His back will go out.’ Sure enough, it happens, including Dice-K [Daisuke Matsuzaka], Jake Peavy, Prior. . . . I have a hard time enjoying the game. I’m sitting there criticizing the pitcher. It hurts to watch pitchers. Seventy percent of the pros have poor mechanics.”
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m a little lost in all of the threads, but we need to improve the starting pitching staff from outside of the organization.
If we had the best staff with OK starters, think of what it would be adding an extra arm who will pitch 7 innings every 5 days and leave the team ahead most of the time.
We don’t need to print a shirt with "Ace" on it and give it to him, just need a strong quality starting pitcher who has a shot to be in the top ten-twenty starters this year.
If the only thing available is "unhealthy" guys, then that’s what short term contracts are for. I’m not sure if you read Phil’s "Werth just beat the crap out of us article", but injuries are difficult to predict in all even healthy players, and past injuries aren’t necessarily indications of being injury prone if they’ve healed, but you sure as hell don’t sign them to long term contracts. If things don’t work out, then we trade as plan ‘B’.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 2:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It sounds like you are agreeing with most of us above
a ton of the rotations we posted included a guy like Sheets or Harden.
So I’m surprised since you said the rotations above “suck.”
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
Point was though we need to add through addition. I didn’t take a lot of the ones for Halladay seriously because of that.
If we added another guy through free agency and then traded for Halladay or Hernandez , I could get on that boat and we could keep non superstar infielders as well.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Casey Blake for JJ Hardy
With the Dodgers kicking in money and a prospect. I’d do it and put Hardy at 3B. Risk/reward situation. We know what to expect from Blake: 260-270 with 15-18 HR. Sprinkle in some injuries and we’ve got a very limited upside there.
by silverwidow on Oct 22, 2009 2:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You want to move a weak hitting SS to 3rd base?
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. I’m sick of Blake. Chances of him playing 100 games next year?
Maybe Hardy can turn it around.
by silverwidow on Oct 22, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Dodgers are prime candidates to use
a platoon at 3rd next year. Casey Blake had a terrible October but overall he had his best year since 2004.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damnit.
I forgot B Webb. That guy’s a total ace.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 2:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure the Diamondbacks are going to pick up his option.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You would be wrong according to recent news articles.
the DBacks have said they do not want to pick up his option, and are asking him to take a pay cut to which B Webb has publicly said, “HELL NO I AIN’T DOIN’ THAT!”
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damnit
Recent reports having B Webb and the DBacks agreeing to exercise his option. I’d be surprised if they didn’t.
However, if he pitches well, we can see about trading for him next year by the deadline!
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
diamondbacks would give us the same treatment padres gave us for peavy
would ask for more than any other team
by XXDC2XX on Oct 25, 2009 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Dodgers had an unlimited budget
I’d sign Sheets, Harden, and Bedard at $5M per pitcher with incentives to take them toward the $12M range. You want aces I’ll give you aces when they can actually pitch. We wouldn’t have traded anything so we’d keep McDonald, Elbert, Haeger, and Stults in reserve to pick up for when they crash. Maybe they all crash or maybe they don’t but if on Oct 1st they were still standing it’d be the best rotation in baseball bar none.
Sheets
Kershaw
Harden
Bedard
Billingsley
Kuroda
so pick your best four put the other two in the bullpen along with Broxton, Kuo, Sherrill, Belisario, Lindblom, Elbert and even the Phillies would be in fear.
by meercatjohn on Oct 22, 2009 3:06 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Hey why not, the wife’s already going to take all the money anyway.
Why not buy a World Series Championship before she takes it all away!
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
See
this is the kind of think I was hoping for when Fox bought the Dodgers but instead we traded away Piazza, got Sheffield and wasted money on Brown and a whole bunch of others and completely let our farm system dry up.
Peter O’Malley should have taken on partners and not sold the Dodgers. I was so mad at him after about a year going, “Duh … I wish I owned the Dodgers still.” Ughhh!!
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How was Brown a waste?
He was the best pitcher the Dodgers had for several years. And besides, wasting money is a relative concept. Its their money, if they want to spend it on good players (Brown certainly qualifies) who am I to argue.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was the worst contract up to that point.
He was 34 at the start of the contract and was injured for parts of 2 seasons. Thank goodness we were able to get Weaver for him. That kid pitched his ASS off for us!
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 22, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brown ERA+ when with the Dodgers
1999: 143
2000: 169
2001: 150
2002: 79
2003: 169
Seems prety solid to me. Except 2002, which is also the year he missed the most innings due to injury. 2001 missed some innings too (like Kuroda this year) but every other year was over 200 innings.
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you count inning per % payroll
It made the Juan contract look brilliant.
I think we got 2 1/2 good years out of him and paid him for five.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As opposed to 0 good years for Juan
ya, good point
by Michael White on Oct 22, 2009 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sheffield also had his best years ever in a Dodger uniform.
by delias man on Oct 22, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
In his years as a Dodger, his inane statements to the press, team fracturing and bizarre threats were in fine form indeed.
by Nolij on Oct 23, 2009 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't Stop Believing Rotation
Halladay
Kershaw
Bills
Wolf
Harden
Special appearance by "Kuroda" and “Eric Stults”
by Cool Dudes on Oct 22, 2009 3:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Frank McCourt has fired his wife as CEO
by silverwidow on Oct 22, 2009 3:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Clean out your desk you're gone
"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."
by Sordid on Oct 22, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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