A Look Toward 2010: The Offense

by Eric Stephen on Oct 24, 2009 3:09 PM PDT in Research Comment 33 comments

The 2010 Dodger offense figures to be very similar to the 2009 offense.

One of the ways to ease the pain of a baseball-less offseason is the annual Bill James Handbook. The 2010 version will be released on November 1, 2010, but the fine folks at ACTA Sports provided us with an early look at the player projections. Here's a look at the 2010 projections for the Dodgers, with a look back at how their 2009 projections fared.

I threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

Infield
Russell Martin
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.292	.390	.439	.829
2009 actual	.250	.352	.329	.680
2009 prOPS	.284	.382	.396	.778
2010 projected	.272	.372	.396	.768
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

James Loney
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.295	.351	.443	.794
2009 actual	.281	.357	.399	.756
2009 prOPS	.298	.371	.438	.809
2010 projected	.294	.360	.440	.800
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Orlando Hudson
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.270	.342	.392	.734
2009 actual	.283	.357	.417	.774
2009 prOPS	.277	.352	.391	.742
2010 projected	.280	.353	.409	.762
2010 status	Type A free agent

Ronnie Belliard
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.266	.331	.405	.736
2009 actual	.277	.325	.451	.776
2009 prOPS	.281	.328	.466	.794
2010 projected	.265	.322	.416	.738
2010 status	Type B free agent
Belliard's stats include time w/Nats

Rafael Furcal
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.286	.354	.409	.763
2009 actual	.269	.335	.375	.711
2009 prOPS	.278	.343	.388	.730
2010 projected	.278	.346	.391	.737
2010 status	under contract

Casey Blake
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.259	.334	.429	.763
2009 actual	.280	.363	.468	.832
2009 prOPS	.287	.372	.473	.845
2010 projected	.257	.337	.426	.762
2010 status	under contract

Outfield
Manny Ramirez
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.304	.406	.556	.962
2009 actual	.290	.418	.531	.949
2009 prOPS	.314	.439	.557	.995
2010 projected	.296	.406	.537	.943
2010 status	holds player option

Matt Kemp
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.311	.360	.496	.856
2009 actual	.297	.352	.490	.842
2009 prOPS	.279	.335	.478	.813
2010 projected	.311	.365	.508	.873
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Andre Ethier
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.303	.374	.492	.866
2009 actual	.272	.361	.508	.869
2009 prOPS	.292	.378	.520	.898
2010 projected	.288	.368	.500	.868
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Juan Pierre
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.292	.348	.356	.704
2009 actual	.308	.365	.392	.792
2009 prOPS	.306	.362	.376	.738
2010 projected	.291	.342	.355	.697
2010 status	under contract

Pitching projections will come tomorrow.

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Comments

The only other Dodgers

listed in the 2010 projections are:

Mark Loretta – .273/.350/.358
Jim Thome – .245/.374/.488

by Eric Stephen on Oct 24, 2009 3:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ALCS Game 6 Postponed

will be played tomorrow night at 5:20pm

by Eric Stephen on Oct 24, 2009 3:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

we need to make a trade for another big bat

we cant for anyone in the outfield, 3rd base or shortstop or catcher

so its either 1st or second.. (james loney could be part of the package)

the only thing i can think of is a trade for dan uggla or one for adrian gonzalez(doubtful)

what are some other things the dodgers could do to improve the offense?

by matthewmafa on Oct 24, 2009 3:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Martin & Furcal could bounce back, while the rest of the team either continues in progression (i.e. Kemp) or remains the same (i.e. Beard)...

by BFDC on Oct 24, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

beard is due for regression (age)

same with furcal (especially playing SS everyday in the low 30s with his injury problems)

and martin is probably almost dead from playing catcher everyday the last 3 years.. top 2 in innings the last 3 years…

i think loney will get better same with kemp ethier will probably stay the same and manny regresses also.. and whoever is our second basemen will be no better then average unless its uggla i guess..

by matthewmafa on Oct 24, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

C, 1st , 2nd are the only upgrade opportunities

Martin or Loney couldn’t be traded for top talent unless genuine prospects were sent with them.

That leaves 2B. Who might be available as an upgrade? Who would we have to give up to get them?

by MattBakerJr on Oct 24, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

uggla?

damn dustin pedroia might be the worst 2nd basemen in the al east loll!

by matthewmafa on Oct 24, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There wil be a platoon on second or the teams trades for Uggla

"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."

by Sordid on Oct 24, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

*team

"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."

by Sordid on Oct 24, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Having Manny for the whole year, and his .943 OPS will tae care of it, especially if Martin bunce back, and Loney keeps improving. Manny will be OK next season, either his last in baseball or contract year!

by Bluetrain on Oct 24, 2009 4:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thank you for this peek Eric!
Good stuff…

by Bluetrain on Oct 24, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

nice work here

Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism.... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Oct 24, 2009 7:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice job E

Manny was pretty close to those projections. I think the BA drop was mostly due to his sudden inability to turn on that inside FB. Is it OK to assume that is going to be a big weakness next year or can he adjust?

by delias man on Oct 24, 2009 8:22 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I think a lot will depend on how much the hand injury affected him. It was probably some mix of natural decline and the hand injury. I hope like heck it was mostly the hand injury.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 24, 2009 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

really personally

there is no need to always defend the players…

manny is declining and is off the juice… that is why he cant turn on the inside fastball… 1 day after his supposed hand injury he hit a grand slam…

i am saying this comment because you also defend broxton road woes on a “injury”

but sometimes the truth is hard to swallow and i do hope manny becomes a monster next year playing for a new contract and broxton is tough.. this mans going to make a lot of money next year… i think were going to have to trade him soon cause hes gonna cost too much for a closer..

by matthewmafa on Oct 24, 2009 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Manny was also off the juice from when he came back (July 3) up to the hand injury and hit .333/.429/.688 in 15 games. I agree that he is declining, but he is also still very good, and the fact remains that he still did get hit in the hand. Whether it affected him physically or mentally (perhaps he doesn’t turn on the inside pitch as much in fear of getting hit?) I don’t know.

As far as Broxton, I have said I am concerned about his road performances on the road, I was concerned enough to write about it:

http://www.truebluela.com/2009/8/19/994919/jonathan-broxton-road-warrior

but in the end with relievers over a season, the innings are so small, especially with a half season (just home or road numbers) that a bad outing or two can really skew the numbers. The fact does remain that Broxton was hiding a toe injury, which affected him specifically in probably his two worst outings of the season (he gave up 5 runs in 2 games) in Milwaukee and San Diego.

Broxton’s splits were in fact crazy:

ERA
Home 0.40
Away 5.81

but if you look at FIP, it becomes a little more reasonable on the road (still amazing at home though):
Home 0.51
Away 4.12

Does Broxton need to do better on the road? Yes. But since we are talking about 31 innings, I’m going to expect Broxton to improve that road performance.

I don’t think I always defend players. I just like to have facts to back up my arguments, and I don’t like when anyone here or anywhere just throws some statement out there without any factual basis.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 24, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

meh

i’m convinced bat speed is not the problem

If it was, he would struggle with hard throwers but be able to get around on soft tossers, but everybody from 98 to 87 got inside on him.

I think it was a swing flaw more than anything. His timing was not good as he foot wasn’t getting down and he was letting his shoulders lead his hands instead of vice versa. Hips are supposed to go first ahead of the shoulders.

by kensai on Oct 26, 2009 2:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and i don't defend players

lol :o

by kensai on Oct 26, 2009 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interviews from yesterday

Curious about McDonald and Elbert’s 2010 roles.

Elbert

Ned: Starter
Joe: Reliever

McDonald

Ned: Reliever
Joe: Starter

by silverwidow on Oct 24, 2009 8:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Silverwidow...

I am not sure I understand, are you saying that Colletti SAID he saw Elbert as a starter and McDonald as a reliever, and Torre said he saw Elbert as a reliever and McDonald as a starter?

by CanuckDodger on Oct 24, 2009 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. This was from their interviews to the press yesterday.

by silverwidow on Oct 24, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting

Torre has always been a JMAc fan. Not surprised he’s willing to give him another shot in the rotation.

Also, doubt Torre’s pleased with Elbert’s one appearance in the post-season. I think he’ll overreact to that, and give Elbert a doghouse treatment for a while.

by Michael White on Oct 24, 2009 8:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he has a level head after all these years. People are going to get injured, bad luck will occur, Elbert will get his shot in 10.

by delias man on Oct 24, 2009 9:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

great

For once joe torre is correct and ned is just himself…

elberts future is a reliever and JMAC starter… in my opinion

jmacs gotta good fastball with potentially a plus curve and change…

elbert is a fastball slider pitcher who is destined for the bullpen…

by matthewmafa on Oct 24, 2009 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can’t say that for sure. Mentioned above that Elbert has a change not shown in majors this year. I would call it TBD.

by delias man on Oct 24, 2009 9:56 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Torre didn't sound very committal

Josh Suchon asked both about the future of Elbert & McDonald, whether they were starters or relievers.

Torre:

We haven’t talked about that. We are going to have meetings here starting at 2pm, and that will be part of the conversation. Both guys, you can see, it could depend on what our needs are. I think they have the ability to be both. Scott Elbert, being lefthanded, I think you’d probably look to him more as a maybe a reliever at this point depending on our needs. He has enough, more than enough, to get righthanders out. There is a possibility, depending on how many starters you need, you’d have to seriously consider that. James has done both. What James needs more than anything, you have a tendency to want young guys to be starters, only because they get a chance to go out there on a regular basis, to establish what they’re capable of doing in certain situations. In trying to figure out these two, you have to figure out innings pitched and that’s probably the most important thing, and maybe the relief stuff comes later on. Initially you have to give them the regular work.

Ned was more direct, but also acknowledged it’s too early to tell and he got the date wrong :)

I think it’s a little bit early to tell yet. I think James has had most of his success at this level working out of the pen. Scotty’s situation is a little bit different. I think Scott Elbert, if I had to handicap it right now, I would say James had a chance more likely to be out of the pen, and Scotty out of the rotation. But that’s October 22.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 24, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OSU gave it a good fight

I’m quite pleased. I knew Canfield was playing well, but I never saw a game like this coming from him.

Oregon State’s 3 losses are to 3 ranked teams. The Beavers are a tough squad. I can’t be bummed about this one…

by Michael White on Oct 24, 2009 8:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good game by OSU, the best OSU USC faced this year :)

I can’t say I’m happy with USC’s defense the past two weeks. Next week will be tough.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 24, 2009 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think OSU is better than Oregon

Canfield is definitely better than either of the two Duck quarterbacks.

But I’m very biased.

by Michael White on Oct 24, 2009 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

That is somewhat comforting, at least

by Eric Stephen on Oct 24, 2009 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

USC matches up WAY better with Oregon than Oregon State

check the numbers since Riley returned, and since Oregon switched to the spread. OSU simply knows how to attack and exploit SC.

by oshea2002 on Oct 25, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

TMZ at it again.

by pdotmac1 on Oct 25, 2009 1:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

DODGERS

THE DODGER OFFENSE IS FINE
THE PLAYOFFS SHOWED THEY NEED A BIG TIME PITCHER-MATT HALLIDAY-TRADE ONE OF OUR STARTERS OR MORE-WE HAVE PITICHING TO TRADE WITH-MAYBE VENE 2 BIG TIME PITCHER-LETS SEE WHATS OUT THEIR FIRST

by spc7@verizon.net on Oct 30, 2009 7:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs