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Are The Dodgers On The Verge Of A Phillies-Like Run?

The next three years should be sweet for the dynamic duo of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, and the Dodgers

Mark J. Terrill - AP

The next three years should be sweet for the dynamic duo of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, and the Dodgers

Losing to the same team in the playoffs for two years in a row is awful.  It takes a psychological toll, at least on the fans, that the losing team can't get over the hump.  The Dodgers lost to the Phillies in last year's NLCS in five games.  This year they improved by 11 wins in the regular season, gained home field advantage in the playoffs, and the result was the same.  Phillies.  Five games.  Thanks for playing.

It is times like these that it is best to take a step back to take the long view of the situation.  Rather than focus on the failure of losing twice to the Phillies, it is important to note just what the Dodgers have accomplished in these last two years.  They are a young, growing team, that had the best record in the National League this season.  Rather than focus energy on what roster moves need to be made to get past the Philadelphia road block, a better option would be to look at the Phillies themselves, and the parallels with this Dodger team.

From 2007 to 2009, the Phillies have led the National League with 274 wins, have won three straight division titles, one World Series, and are back this year to defend their crown.  Here is a look at the nucleus of those teams, and their ages during this great run:

Pos Player 2007-2009 Ages WAR
2B Chase Utley 28-30 23.8
SS Jimmy Rollins 28-30 14.4
OF Jayson Werth 28-30 13.4
1B Ryan Howard 27-29 12.5
SP Cole Hamels 23-25 12.2
OF Shane Victorino 26-28 10.4
RP Ryan Madson 26-28 3.1
P Brett Myers 26-28 2.9

The Phillies have really done well to capitalize on the prime years of their best players.  The Dodgers have a window with the current nucleus until roughly 2012, the final year of arbitration eligibility for six of their main cogs (plus Jonathan Broxton can become a free agent after 2011).  Let's take a look at the ages of the Dodgers' best players for the next three years, to compare it to the Phillies:

Pos Player 2010-2012 Ages 2009 WAR
OF Matt Kemp 25-27 5.1
SP Clayton Kershaw 22-24 4.2
SP Chad Billingsley 25-27 3.1
RP Jonathan Broxton 26-28 2.9
OF Andre Ethier 28-30 2.6
C Russell Martin
27-29 2.1
1B James Loney 26-28 1.4

That is a strong core to build around.  If the Dodgers can take advantage of the prime seasons of their young stars, like the Phillies did, they will be in great shape.  The Phillies are still going to be good next season.  But, as many Phillies start to hit the wrong side of 30 years old, their window will close, while the younger Dodgers will keep improving.

The Phillies may have been the team of the last three years in the National League, but if you want a team for the next three, look to the Dodgers.

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Red Sox are looking for a CF

And they want to move Ellsbury to LF.

This may sound crazy to some, but how about Kemp for Lester, straight up? Bear in mind, Kemp is my favorite position player, but we’re talking about a young lefty who put up ace numbers in the AL East.

by silverwidow on Oct 25, 2009 8:14 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nothing

would convince em to trade Lester I don’t think.
That being said, looking at these numbers it shows how insanely good Kemp and Utley are. I wish our entire core wasn’t injured, Cause Reyes, Beltran and Wright put up insane WAR’s from 06-08 also.

I hate Chase Utley.

by MetsKnicksRutgers on Oct 25, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ellbury to left??

haha hes basically now juan pierre…. same steals.. you can expect the same Average and OBP.. elbury has 10 home run ability while juan is 1 or 2 a year…

thats funny how most people hate juan pierre but now boston wants to put someone just like him in left field

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry, but anyone who would actually do that trade is not thinking straight

I’d never do that. Kemp is, in all honesty, our best offensive player. Why would we weaken our offense, something that we need to improve, to get a great young pitcher when our pitching was already the best in the league all year until the playoffs. Now I’m sure someone will tell me “but in the playoffs we had no ace and that’s why we lost.” They would be wrong, but I’m sure I’ll see that.

by Ivdown on Oct 25, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Phillies phan here - agree to the above post - just look at Cole Hamels last year

Much like Kershaw, Cole hamels was considered our in-season “Ace” all year. He pitched extremely well for us and got us to the 2008 playoffs. From there, as you dodgers fans know all too intimately, the rest is HISTORY. As much as we loved Cole in Philadelphia and were excited by his incredible stuff (see kershaw) questions were asked as to whether he was truely a legitimate big staff ace in the molds of C.C. Sabathia’s, johan santana’s, etc…He proved to be otherworldly in his 08 playoff performances winning NLCS and World Series MVP trophies. But I don’t see a huge differnece between the pre-playoff perceptions of hamels and kershaw. It’s just that when the playoffs starting unfolding, Cole became “Hollywood Hamels” and really turned it on where as this year kershaw fell a little flat.

Flash forward to this last year and Hamels struggled mightely in the regular season (as a result of the Verducci effect perhaps? too many innings pitched, and too much post season television appearences?) with a slew of early freak injuries and a general slow start before turning it on a bit towards the end of the regular season

It seems Hamels is having the same problems for us this postseason and doesn’t look a thing like the Legitimate workhorse Ace we all assumed he would be after last years postseason. This is why we went out and got a guy like cliff lee to be that man. It wouldnt be a bad idea for the dodgers to look to someone with a more established resume of greatness to fill that role your staff rather than banking on letting kershaw “mature” into that guy as some have hoped and suggested he should/will/has. Even we dont really know what we have in Hamels in Philly right now so its a long struggle to make a man.

That was a long post. It’s super late. Those we some thoughts that were stewing in my brain after our series ended. When is this freaking world series gonna start anyway it seems like the phillies haven’t played in YEARS with this layoff. hopefully no rust. You guys played a good year. Good luck with the offseason.

by SilkPhantom on Oct 26, 2009 2:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bills may have also been a victim of the Verducci effect :(

Honestly, Hamels season did look worse, but it was nearly the same season as 08, just a worse ERA and I think worse WHIP. As much as I hate to say that, just because I despise him so much.

You know, I hate most everything Phillies, including their fans, but you seem to be a very good one, and give me some hope about their fan base.

by Ivdown on Oct 26, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

no it's not wrong.

it’s the glaring hurdle that prevents the doyers from making the transition from good regular season club to good october club. why so many of you don’t get that is beyond me.

by SoCalCMH on Oct 27, 2009 2:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

no.

i’d give them loney, martin and bills for lester. but not kemp. he’s the franchise. no way no how.

by SoCalCMH on Oct 27, 2009 2:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everyone was thinking of players to bring in and players to dump in order to make the Dodgers better. The players needed to win are there, it’s just a matter of getting better with experience.

by Penos Cabell on Oct 25, 2009 8:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Phils fan here...

It certainly took us a while to do it. For years, we missed out on the playoffs by a game or 2 with this core group of players. Then, in 2007, we finally broke through… and 3 playoff games later we were gone. I think the Dodgers are building a nice young core here, and should contend for the the next 3-5 years at a minimum.

Hell, Philly hadn’t won a Championship in any of the 4 major sports since 1983. 1983! If anyone knows what a demoralizing playoff loss feels like, it’s a Philly fan. Chip up, fellas. The crushing losses will make it all the more worthwhile when you finally win.

by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 25, 2009 9:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

I think we have many great years ahead of us.

by Penos Cabell on Oct 25, 2009 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

poor philly

mitch williams, sir charles to phoenix, shaq in 2001, nfc championship losses to st. louis, tampa at the vet, carolina, tom brady in the super bowl, eric lindross, nfc championship loss to az, phillies first ever to 10,000 franchise losses. enjoy your moment in the sun last year buddy, i mean rain. the yanks will win in no more than six and your eagles aren’t even going to make the playoffs.

by SoCalCMH on Oct 27, 2009 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of the reasons I wasn't too upset at losing this year

Was because I think we’re just getting started if we can keep our core together and see improvements from them.

Just need to find the right long term pieces to fill in around them, and we’ll be in good shape for years to come.

by goodlucksaturday on Oct 25, 2009 9:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I don’t think Ned needs to make any huge moves.

by Penos Cabell on Oct 25, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kind of like when the Edmonton Oilers lost to the Islanders in 1983. The Isles won their 4th straight cup, but the Oilers were a young team, and won 4 of the next 5.

Is Matt Kemp our Great One? Or is it Kershaw? :)

by Eric Stephen on Oct 25, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The power of the K's

Kershaw and Kemp. Both love strikeouts (lol), and both will be leaders on this team for years to come. :)

by Ivdown on Oct 25, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

what a stupid comment.

just getting started??? you act like the next three to five years are a given. nothing’s a given which is why when you have a good team you have to go all in while you are good and hope to win at least once otherwise you end up like the tigers, rays, white sox, etc. and are quickly forgotten.

the right long term pieces are either going to cost you money teh mc courts right now dont have or players too many of you are convinced are the next jackie robinson, duke snyder and sandy koufax. loney, martin and billingsley are not. they are expendable.

by SoCalCMH on Oct 27, 2009 2:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

do the dodgers even have the best Core in the NL West??

let alone the NL…

Arizona: Upton, Reynolds, Drew, Parra, Conor Jackson, Dan haren, Max Sherzer, Bwebb?

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, Ian Stewart, Ianetta, Ubaldo, De la Rosa, Hammel

San Diego: Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Headley, Kouzmanoff, Kyle Blanks, Everth Cabrera Mat Latos, Clayton Richard

San Francisco: Tim lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathon Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Buster posey? Travis ishikawa? Nate Shierholtz?

The giants beat everyone in pitching while the rockies and dbacks have the best cores all together.. The padres have some good players too but only gonzlez and latos and maybe cabrera stick out..

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

best cores?

I hope you meant not including the Dodgers. I’d take our core over colorado or arizona’s in a heartbeat. They might have more younger players in quantity but we beat them in quality IMO.

by CarolinaDodger on Oct 25, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

russel martin and his .680 OPS?

james loney who ranks 22 out of 23 in OPS among qualified first basemen?

yes matt kemp and kershaw ethier bills are quality but every team has quiality.. you are saying upton reynolds drew haren sherzer and bwebb are not quality???

tulo fowler Gonzalez seth smith de la rosa and ubaldo hammel are not quality??

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and ethier/broxton

I’d take the top five of the Dodgers (Kershaw, Kemp, Ethier, Bills, and Broxton) over any other 5 in the division. Also, I was counting only players 28 and under since that was the idea of the post so didn’t count Haren or Webb.

by CarolinaDodger on Oct 25, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

are you bringing up just this years stats, seriously?

You brought up connor jackson who hit .180 in limited time. Wow dude, just wow. Are you really a Dodger fan or do you just have huge crushes on the other NL West teams?

by Ivdown on Oct 25, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That should make for some interesting division battles the next few years.

I think Colorado is the strongest of the competitors, and if Brandon Webb is healthy Arizona is right behind. The Giants still need offense, but a few offseason moves could really bolster their chances.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 25, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

mine goes..

Arizona
Colorado
Dodgers
Giants
Padres

but 3 through 5 are extremely close

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You were wrong when you brought this up before

and you are wrong now.

The only core that scares me is the Rockies, and I am extremely confident that the Dodgers still have a better one, though it’s close. Not only that, but the Dodgers core is much better than the Dbacks, Giants, and Padres.

by Ivdown on Oct 25, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rak'in with Power

Utley, Werth, Howard, and Victorino destroyed some of the best pitching in baseball when they took down the Dodgers. Rollins showed he can hit 99 mph fastballs when that’s all he sees too.
Kemp can do this
Ethier is doing it
Will Loney?
3b of the future?
LF of the future?
Someone has done a great job of teaching those Philliy hitters the power stroke.
Ethier is the only one on the Dodgers who implements it consistently.
Charlie Manuel and who else is the Phillies hittihg coach?
Howard’s vision, strength and reflexes – hand speed are inherent. Someone had to teach him and is now continuoulsy coaching him on how to swing the bat that way.

by 68elcamino427 on Oct 25, 2009 10:20 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Lots and lots of power in that lineup

and it’s not just their park, either. I looked at their 2009 road numbers, and they are still impressive.

ISO (SLG minus BA) on road
Howard .314
Ibañez .304
Utley .238
Werth .205

By contrast, Manny (.221 ISO) and Ethier (.208) were the only Dodgers with an ISO on the road above .200

by Eric Stephen on Oct 25, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

woww

ethier was pretty bad on the road this year..

and still managed to have a iso over .200

i cant wait to see ethier next year when his Road babip go back up to normal heights..

i think theres a chance he will be .300 35 homers 120 RBI.. that would be crazyyy

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was a mistake on my part

It was Blake with the 208 ISO on the road. ethier was much worse

by Eric Stephen on Oct 25, 2009 11:37 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

lol

i still thnk ethier .300 35 120 can happen..

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ethier is also the oldest ont that list.

Expect more consistency in the future from the others.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 25, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or Loney can be consistantly a single ball hitter, or Martin can consistantly walk with no power, etc.

Consistency doesn’t imply improvement that most people in baseball think they do.

Consistency from Joe Mauer, or Albert Pujols is great. Consistency from Willy Bloomquist, or Bengie Molina? Not so good.

by Tripon on Oct 25, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we traded Abreu because our AAA infield next year is pretty much set:

1B: Russell Mitchell
2B: Ivan DeJesus (heir apparent to big league job)
SS: Chin Lung Hu
3B: Blake DeWitt

by silverwidow on Oct 25, 2009 11:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

True, but the line of thinking above is also valid

by silverwidow on Oct 25, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the Dodgers were that worried about Triple-A, and wanted to keep Aberu

They could have easily just keep him at a reserve or give him 2nd base starts.

BTW, you’re still keeping DeWitt on the farm despite it being a near certainty that Hudson is gone?

by Tripon on Oct 25, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep. Don’t think the front office likes DeWitt’s 2B defense enough to start him.

by silverwidow on Oct 25, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

huh?

if hudson is not back next year.. who be the 2nd basemen??

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh

Don’t know, I guess I didn’t realize that’s what you were responding too. These indents get tricky sometimes…

by Michael White on Oct 25, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because I think Ned will sign a FA not named Hudson to fill that spot. Perhaps Felipe Lopez as a 1 year stop gap for DeJesus.

by silverwidow on Oct 25, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i would like to have lopez

 but after the good year he had this year.. would he accept a one year deal?

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The switch-hitting Bell, who came over to the Orioles in the deal that sent reliever George Sherrill to the Dodgers in July, has hit at every level and continued that when he batted a combined .295 with 20 home runs and 76 RBIs in the Dodgers’ and Orioles’ Double-A affiliates this season.

So far in the AFL, the 22-year-old is 13-for-28 with a home run and nine RBIs.

“Josh Bell has outstanding power, especially from the left side,” Stockstill said.

Stockstill also praised Bell’s strong throwing arm, but said he’d like to see him improve on his footwork and range at the hot corner — something he said Bell made strides in this summer — and added that he could use a little more work as a right-handed hitter.

But Stockstill loves Bell’s bat.

“He has light tower-type power — he has a bat that really explodes on contact,” Stockstill said. “Right-handed, he hits the ball all over the field, a little bit less power than he has left-handed. Left-handed, he uses the whole field, but he also hits more gap-to-gap — left-center to right-center.”

But Stockstill isn’t jumping the gun on Bell’s readiness for the Majors.

“We feel like we took him to the Arizona Fall League to try to put him on a fast track to getting to the Major Leagues as soon as possible,” he said. “There are definitely things to work on, and I think it’s too early to say that, yes, he’ll be ready for next year. You have to let him work, see what he does out there, see what he does in Spring Training, and then make the decision at the proper time.”

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091025&content_id=7543286&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal&partnerId=rss_bal

by Tripon on Oct 25, 2009 11:16 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

this is great...

right after we trade our prospects, they become top 50 prospects in mlb..

first carlos santana and now josh bell

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't become angry till they succeed in the Majors

"If you go to ciphering we are whipped beforehand."

by Sordid on Oct 25, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point

unless we could have packaged them in a deal for a big bat or ace instead of individually throwing em into seperate deals for average veterans.. then you could still be angry

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah maybe ur right

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Oct 25, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

bleh

can we get a refund??

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Oct 25, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bart Hubbuch The Mets won’t be pursuing Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman after being told he wants up to $60 million to sign.

by Tripon on Oct 25, 2009 11:29 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i really wonder who will even give him 40 mill

i doubt the yanks and red sox overbid for this overrated guy

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It should be a team like the Brewers or Astros or Reds

Who can’t go for the top guys in FA, but need starting pitching anyway.

by Tripon on Oct 25, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great Comparison

I was trying to think why everyone was hitting out of their minds right now on the Phils, and I noticed that they were all coming into the same 28-30 range and this just might mean that, if there is ever a most likely time most of your players are going to be firing on all cylinders, this is it. I still haven’t figured out how Werth and Victorino have exploded into real good hitters, and then just happened to explode on the Dodgers, but the fact that they both are in their prime and will probably decline from here might somewhat help explain it.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 25, 2009 11:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

victorino and werth on the decline??

they have just started their greatness…

victorino is 27 28? werth 30?

werth is coming into his own now and is still improving while victorino can still improve..

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes

but i dont know why you are saying that these two will now decline..

they are just in the beginning of their prime years..

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

twitter
billazbbphotog Best raw power I saw today came from Chris Jacobs for #Dodgers Instructs – back to back jacks that traveled far.3:33 PM Oct 23rd from web

very nice

Kyle Russell (#Dodgers) hit a couple of long bombs, one fair and one foul, in Instructs today. Incredible power when he makes contact.3:04 PM Oct 9th from web

please please develop like mark reynolds or something

Most incredible catch in Instructs today: #Dodgers Dee Gordon caught a soft, looping liner that was 10-12 feet above the ground. Wow!3:03 PM Oct 9th from web

dee or Halladay

billazbbphotog

by hirambocachica on Oct 25, 2009 11:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

chris jacobs

i have high hopes for this guy.. i thought that this year was going to be his breakout year in the minors but it looks like i might have been a year early

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Indians hire Manny Acta

Makes sense. They probably wanted a Spanish speaking manager to help tutor their franchise catcher.

by silverwidow on Oct 25, 2009 12:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

ESPN’s Buster Olney has informed MLBTR, via email, that Tony La Russa has signed a new multi-year contract to return as the Cardinals manager. La Russa’s coaching staff will look different though, as the Cards have fired hitting coach Hal McRae. The leading candidate to replace him? According to Olney, it’s former Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire.

McGwire is going to come out of hiding?

by Tripon on Oct 25, 2009 12:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i hope so.

he’s a good guy who’s done much for kids and younger players and deserves a shot. canseco’s a rat.

by SoCalCMH on Oct 27, 2009 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade

We are just one trade with Memphis away from winning a title. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 25, 2009 1:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

dan uggla???

he went to memphis University!!! is that what you mean??

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The age differencial was a point that Colin Cowherd discussed on his show the day after the Game 5 loss. He basically stated the same point that The Phillies are built to win now, whereas the best days for this Dodgers core group of players is yet to come.

Great article, Eric. I definitely share your optimism for these Dodgers.

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 25, 2009 6:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Cool - Don't understand the comment about Werth

way back in 2004 he was a very good for us. The difference now is that he’s holding his own against RHP while still killing LHP. If he doesn’t break his wrist on the first pitch of spring training in 2005 who knows how the Dodger future would have played out.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 25, 2009 7:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah

maybe we dont trade for ethier…

maybe we trade kemp for a veteran…

no manny…

by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No endless debates about Juan Pierre’s worth

by Cool Dudes on Oct 25, 2009 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right. He hit the same in 2004 as 2009 in the postseason.

Postseason OPS

2004 1.197
2007 .250
2008 .969
2009 1.207

We are just idiots. We basically just committed Hari Kari with that 2004 team.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 25, 2009 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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