Los Angeles Dodgers Number Two 2010 Top Prospect - Chat & Vote
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 25, 2009 10:48 PM PDT
in Los Angeles Dodgers Minor League Report
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PrintTBLA Prospect Number One Discussion and Vote
Number One - Chris WIthrow
Due to a late surge Chris Withrow takes the top spot and is the community TBLA top Dodger prospect for 2010. A worthy choice, Withrow showed why he was the Dodgers top pick in 2007 by handling the tough California League in his first full professional season, and then doing more then holding his own as a 20 year old in AA.
This was tight vote with every person on the ballot getting some support. We are going to make it even tougher by adding Aaron Miller and Trayvon Robinson to the mix for the next round. From this point on we will be doing a vote a day during the week and skipping weekends.
| Bday | Name | Update |
| 8/13/1985 | Scott Elbert | Elbert was the Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2009 and did an excellent job in the AA and AAA rotations after spending all of 2008 in the AA bullpen. Once promoted to the Dodgers for good in Sept he spent the month performing as a Loogy. He's probably going to be death to lefties throughout his career but he's going to have to work on that command if the wants to be an important factor in a rotation. BA left him off the top prospect list because they don't feel he is going to be a fixture in a major league rotation. The Dodgers sure didn't show much confidence in his ability to start since they never gave Elbert even one such opportunity, instead turning to the likes of Milton, Schmidt, Weaver, Haegar, Stults, Padilla, and Garland. They also weren't very confident in him to be a solid middle relief option by trading two solid prospects for Sherrill. So I don't see the Dodgers showing much confidence in their Minor League Pitcher of the Year. At 24 years old he's, he's easily the oldest prospect on the this list, is he still the best simply because he already made the major leagues? |
| 5/1/1987 | Ivan DeJesus |
Did not play in 2009 due to a broken leg. I'm firmly convinced that if DeJesus had played this season he'd be the top position prospect for the Dodgers. We already know what he can do in AA at the age of 21 so it doesn't take much insight to figure he'd have kicked butt in 2009 at AA/AAA. That said his best skills are his ability to play SS and plate discipline. It remains to be seen if he can be a major league SS and post an OBP of around .380 which he will need to be useful. If he becomes Luis Castillo without the speed I'm not sure just how useful that is. |
| 8/11/1988 | Andrew Lambo | Muddled through his first full season of AA ball and some scouts have marked him down to a fourth outfielder. That seems very premature given his age since he only turned 21 during the season. He held his own but didn't give any indication he can hit enough to man LF but the jury is still out. With an ISOP of only .150 in combination of a walk rate below 9% he's got a lot of work to do but has plenty of time to get that work in. On the plus side he is totally mashing in the AFL as we speak. BA ranked him as the 18th top prospect in the Southern league. |
| 6/15/1987 | Josh Lindblom |
2008 number two pick Lindblom started out in AA working in relief and starting but once promoted to AAA he was used strictly as a relief pitcher. He had a good year but not a dominating year and failed to make any top prospect lists. |
| 9/18/87 | Aaron Miller | Number one 2009 draft pick Aaron Miller was quick to make an impact with his sterling work for the Great Lake Loons, winning the first playoff game in Loon history and impressing everyone along the way. Striking out over 32% of batters faced while walking less then 10% will put a smile on Dodgers fans as they contemplate the future with Aaron Miller. |
| 4/22/88 | Dee Gordon | We were excited about Gordon before the season started but by the end of the year the scouts were the one's who were drooling over his tools. Most of the drooling is because of his "raw" talent and when that raw talent starts turning into more production we could really have something. After a sizzling July he seemed to run out of gas in August but that did not stop the 21 year old from being named the MWL CO-MVP (Kyle_Russell) and being voted 2nd best prospect in the MidWest League by BA. The speed is unquestioned, maybe the fastest player in the organization he led the MWL in stolen bases but he's also 2nd in the league in being caught (73/30). He's no Juan_Pierre as he has gap power, and was developing some patience as the season wore. He started April with a walk rate of 4.7% and ended it in Aug at 7.9% with a high of 8.1% in July. He made a ton of errors but has the arm and range to stick at SS |
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Why so?
You mean because the poll already started, or has everything been said about each of the prospects? I’d like people to vote and give reasons why. This is close call, a case could be made for anyone of them, and even as SilverWidow has suggested two others.
Haha no..
When I read Dejesus’ update, it’s:
Did not play in 2009 due to a broken leg. I’m firmly convinced that if DeJesus had played this season he’d be the top position prospect for the Dodgers. We already know what he can do in AA at the age of 21 so it doesn’t take much insight to figure he’d have kicked butt in 2009 at AA/AAA. That said his best skills are his ability to play SS and plate discipline. It remains to be seen if he
And that’s it.
by Julio Nievas on Oct 26, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I understood the DeJesus part
something strange with my HTML so I fixed it. I was asking why you said “A bit late for a chat”?
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh
Because it was posted at 10:48 last night. It was just a little odd for me that a chat would start that late. That’s all.
by Julio Nievas on Oct 26, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh
didn’t occur to me you were talking about the actual time. Thought you young bucks stayed up all night.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it has to be Trayvon Robinson.
Only a year older than Gordon, already at AA, CF, looks to stick there, can be a dynamic hitter.
Which means that Colletti will trade him for a reliever that can barely reach 91.
Trayvon
has been in the system for several years and last year was a good year, not exactly a great year like Santana put up but a good year. He looks likes he moving up but I don’t think he’s our 2nd best prospect right now.
Gordon is obviously going to win this one
But I fail to see why Martin and Eovaldi aren’t listed. I’d take both of them before Gordon.
One guy was the Midwest League MVP at a solid age
who everyone is drooling over, the other two had big upside arms but barely averaged 3 innings an outing. I’d like to see what they can do as real starters before promoting them over full time players and pitchers. I’ll add them next.
Lindblom’s 2009 IP: 96.1
Eovaldi’s 2009 IP: 96.1
Martin’s 2009 IP: 100.0
Don’t see how you can include Lindblom but not the other two.
Because Lindblom
was pitching in AAA but I see your point. I’ll add both of them next time but I think you will see they will get little traction until after Aaron Miller is off the board. To me Elbert is the clear choice as the top pitcher with Aaron Miller right behind.
Sounds like your criteria is quite different than BA’s.
BA is very much about pure upside/impact potential. Your thoughts on Aaron Miller lead me to believe you are putting a higher value on “closeness to the majors.”
Then Gordon will simply be the easy vote
since BA feels he has the most upside/impatc potential of any of our prospects. Neither of those pitchers will make my top five since they still have plenty to prove to me. Martin’s mid season swoon for one was very disturbing, in case you forgot he simply was horrible for a six week stretch. Dead arm maybe or maybe his arm just won’t be able to handle the rigors of full season pitching. Eovaldi has the arm but not the ability to miss bats at a consistent enough rate to rank with the big boys right now. Aaron Miller is older and they could both easily surpass him but for now Aaron Miller has shown me that he is ready to move up quickly while Martin/Eovaldi will probably be repeating the MWL.
As of right now I’d say the odds of Aaron Miller being in the Dodger Rotation and doing well is higher then Martin/Eovaldi.
That said
remember this is the TBLA community vote, not mine, based on your suggestions I’ll be adding Martin/Eovaldi to the next poll and you can make the arguments for them if you think they should be voted. Give voters a reason, don’t just say you think Martin is the best candidate because he has big arm. What specifically makes him a better candidate then Elbert who kicked his ass statistically at the same age.
On the Elbert note and BA
as BH noted in the comments for the last vote, Elbert was voted the top Sally prospect not the 10th at the same stage of their careers. To put Martin over Elbert now would mean that the expectation is that Martin will surpass Elbert going forward. Since Elbert is still excelling in the minor leagues and has only had a smidgeon of major league appearances I not sure I can make that leap but if you can then tell us why.
Martin and Eovaldi will place highly for me for a few reasons:
1) Age
They’re both at least two years younger than the other pitchers on this list. Plenty of time for improvement in both cases. If they get bumped up to Inland Empire, they’re both going to face much older competition and tough ballparks. I think they’ve got the stuff to handle it.
2) Velocity
I am a big fan of dudes who can throw mid-to-upper 90s. But I also realize that command can be an issue with hard throwers (especially in Martin’s case). That should even out in 2010 as they gain experience.
3) Higher risk = higher reward?
To me, a guy like Aaron Miller is a “safe” pick — a pretty good bet as a future mid-rotation starter. I’d rather bet on the riskier arm with the chance that he becomes a legit 1 or 2.
I understand your points
and if Martin had followed his incredible April with even a decent May I’d be all over him but he simply cratered before rebounding somewhat. Now, until he proves something different to me I’m not sure he has the arm to handle a full season in a rotation. Hopefully he will make those worries seem silly at this time next year.
I voted DeJesus
despite being injured last year.Phil’s argument that he raked in AA while being younger than Lambo and playing SS did it for me.
It was a toss up between Elbert and DeJesus…
Gordon is a bit raw. I’d like to see what he can do against a bit better pitching first.
Gordon
may not ever face a tougher offensive league then he just played in. We really have to look at what Gordon did in the MWL and compare that to the breakouts of Santana, Van Slyke, Trayvon Robinson had after they left the MWL. Of course that is one of the reasons we expected Lambo to excel but they skipped him to AA. It is possible that if Lambo had just moved up one spot to the California League , he’d have been a monster but we will never know.
I'll admit I'm quite the novice when it comes to evaluating minor leaguers
but the logic regarding Kyle Russel is that that he may struggle once he faces more advanced pitching (despite his excellent power numbers in the MWL.) Why wouldn’t we assume that’s the case for Gordon as well?
by Michael White on Oct 26, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Your right
we need to see how he does against advanced pitching, but I’m just saying what he did offensively in the MWL was impressive until he got tired in Aug. It is tough from a statistical point when the Dodgers have such a pitching league in the MWL and then the next league up is such an offensive league. Van Slyke? What is he?
The scouts love Gordon to death, we never got that kind of accolades for DeJesus, they have always been blase about him.
I voted Elbert
but it was between him and DeJesus. Close call.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I registered just to say what an incredible job you guys do on this site, TBLA. I love Dodger Thoughts, but there’s so much good stuff here.
I was specifically motivated by Phil Gurnee’s Werth and Victorino demolition article. Perfectly said.
Thanks and keep up the good work this off-season.
I picked Andrew Lambo
My only reasoning behind this decision was I think he has a great home run hitters name. I have this irrational idea in sports that greatness is partly due to ones name. John Elway, Joe Montana, Chase Utley, Clayton Kershaw. I think Andrew Lambo is going to sound good when Vin Scully says “And look who’s looming in the on-deck circle….Andy Lambo.” 43 home runs in 2012.
My rational pick will be Aaron Miller. I am going with a pitcher. Unless there is another potential slugger in the minors, I want a pitcher to do well. None of those position player prospects have much power it seems (correct me if I am wrong), so I don’t really care too much about them for anything other than filling in for departing average major league player filler then to become an average MLB player filler themself or trade bait.
I like your reasoning
we should do a poll, who has the best major league sounding name. Would Lambo’s name have the same impact if there wasn’t a Lambeau field in professional sports. Being a lifelong Packer fan just hearing the words “Lambeau Field” still sends chills down my spine when done by the NFL films guy.
If the Dodgers ever move (hopefully not anytime soon of course) they could call it Lambo Field!
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I look forward
to Lambo becoming a kick ass power hitting left fielder and turning Mannywood into Lambo Field.
Man, we would be like the 1980's Oakland A's at Oakland Alameda Stadium!
Henduland. I remember that.
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 26, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Just the sound of Lambo sounds heavy. Like there is some heavy lifting involved.
I sometimes tear up for no reason watching NFL films. I get that same chill down the spine.
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 26, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Greatest voice ever
for emitting male emotion.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
John Facenda was the best. “The autumn wind was a Raider…”
I think baseball should do season in review videos for every team like NFL Films does.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Just one more point here.
If you took off the “O” at the end of Lambo, his name would be Lamb. Andy Lamb. It would be a whole different reasoning on my part.
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 26, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Ha
Maybe I’m a year to late. I predicted him to the Dodgers last year. Can’t expect we have to give up anything, the Rays need to make room for Zobrist and they’d like to get rid of Iwamura’s contract.
Hmm
one year final deal on Iwamura while DeJesus percolates. A tad expensive at $4.5 million given the production and he strikes out a hell of a lot for a guy with such little power. When he came over I had hoped he could hit 15 – 20 home runs but that seems out of his reach. I think Kensai would call him a “shitty” hitter.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Looked up the 2010 Bill James projections
for Iwamura, and BJ has him at .290/.367/.389
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Only if the Rays
pay some of his salary and since they are strapped for cash I don’t see that happening. They will be happy to rid themselves of his contract with out getting anything in return. We aren’t talking about a very good player.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I voted for Dee Gordon
He’s built for speed. He can hit. Gap power (12 triples this year). He’s only 19 so out of everyone on the list, I think he has the higher upside. His OBP wasn’t that great, but at his young age, I think he has a lot of time to mature, and so far he’s had quite a start.
2010 Lineup
SS Furcal
2B Iwamura
RF Ethier
LF Ramirez
CF Kemp
1B Loney
3B Blake
C Martin
Good lineup, but is missing one more thumper. I wish we had a franchise 3rd baseman (David Wright-esque).
stuff from the prospect insider
Dodgers outfielder Andrew Lambo, a lefty bat, continues to impress, showing plus power and the ability to hit the ball to center field, if not left-center. I said the first day I got here that Lambo reminds me of Andre Ethier, who I saw in the Texas League four years ago, and without being led down that road, one club’s special assistant tossed this at me:
“He’s Andre Ethier, isn’t he? Similar athletically, both throw well enough to play right, both see the ball well and the ball jumps off their bat.”
Keith opines, however, and I tend to agree, that Lambo has more raw power than Ethier, but Ethier’s on-base skills are superior, and were when he was the Texas League MVP, too.
Keith and one NL scout both see disinterest in Lambo’s approach to defense, though, which sucks, but Lambo did have the three quotes of the entire week.
(Paraphrasing) To Dustin Ackley during BP: “You see that Heyward dude? He’s like you plus me without all the things we don’t do well.”
Direct quote talking to Churchill: “Dip check, yay or nay?”
Direct quote talking to Jordan Danks (CWS) and others (no idea who they were talking about): “He’s built
like a billy goat, isn’t he? You ever seen those things? They’re funny, man.”
at least lambo went from james loney to andre ethier with more power and less patience. I like it
there’s a video of him taking BP
by hirambocachica on Oct 26, 2009 11:26 AM PDT reply actions
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