Los Angeles Dodgers Number Three 2010 Top Prospect - Chat & Vote
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 26, 2009 11:42 AM PDT
69 comments
TBLA Prospect Number One Chat and Vote - Chris WIthrow
TBLA Prospect Number Two Chat and Vote - Dee Gordon
Dee Gordon easily wins the number two spot so I'm closing the vote and moving onto to number three where I expect a much closer vote. SilverWidow has requested we add Ethan Martin and Nathan Eovaldi to this list so we have done so.
| Bday | Name | Update |
| 8/13/1985 | Scott Elbert | Elbert was the Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2009 and did an excellent job in the AA and AAA rotations after spending all of 2008 in the AA bullpen. Once promoted to the Dodgers for good in Sept he spent the month performing as a Loogy. He's probably going to be death to lefties throughout his career but he's going to have to work on that command if the wants to be an important factor in a rotation. BA left him off the top prospect list because they don't feel he is going to be a fixture in a major league rotation. The Dodgers sure didn't show much confidence in his ability to start since they never gave Elbert even one such opportunity, instead turning to the likes of Milton, Schmidt, Weaver, Haegar, Stults, Padilla, and Garland. They also weren't very confident in him to be a solid middle relief option by trading two solid prospects for Sherrill. So I don't see the Dodgers showing much confidence in their Minor League Pitcher of the Year. At 24 years old he's, he's easily the oldest prospect on this list? Does familiarity breed contempt? |
| 5/1/1987 | Ivan DeJesus | Did not play in 2009 due to a broken leg. I'm firmly convinced that if DeJesus had played this season he'd be the top position prospect for the Dodgers. We already know what he can do in AA at the age of 21 so it doesn't take much insight to figure he'd have kicked butt in 2009 at AA/AAA. That said his best skills are his ability to play SS and plate discipline. It remains to be seen if he can be a major league SS and post an OBP of around .380 which he will need to be useful. If he becomes Luis Castillo without the speed I'm not sure just how useful that is. |
| 6/15/1987 | Josh Lindblom | 2008 number two pick Lindblom started out in AA working in relief and starting but once promoted to AAA he was used strictly as a relief pitcher. He had a good year but not a dominating year and failed to make any top prospect lists. |
| 9/1/1987 | Trayvon Robinson | No one made a bigger move up the prospect ladder then Trayvon Robinson who came into the year with a reputation as a slap hitter with great speed who struck out to much and had little plate discipline. He ended the 2009 campaign as the starting CF for the AA Lookouts after torching the California League, showing large not subtle improvement in his power and plate discipline. |
| 9/18/1987 | Aaron Miller | Number one 2009 draft pick Aaron Miller was quick to make an impact with his sterling work for the Great Lake Loons, winning the first playoff game in Loon history and impressing everyone along the way. Striking out over 32% of batters faced while walking less then 10% will put a smile on Dodgers fans as they contemplate the future with Aaron Miller. |
| 8/11/1988 | Andrew Lambo | Muddled through his first full season of AA ball and some scouts have marked him down to a fourth outfielder. That seems very premature given his age since he only turned 21 during the season. He held his own but didn't give any indication he can hit enough to man LF but the jury is still out. With an ISOP of only .150 in combination of a walk rate below 9% he's got a lot of work to do but has plenty of time to get that work in. On the plus side he is totally mashing in the AFL as we speak. BA ranked him as the 18th top prospect in the Southern league. |
| 6/6/1989 | Ethan Martin | Number one pick in 2008 Ethan Martin started 2009 on fire but ran into trouble in June . He ended up the year in a tag team with Nathan Eovaldi and the Dodgers never let him throw more the 3 innings after Aug 1st. Highlights - April - 32.9 K/PA along with 8.9 BB/PA , Downlights - June - 14.7 K/PA and 13.7 BB/PA. He was picked by BA as the 10 best prospect in the MWL. He very possibly has the best arm on this list, unless it Nathan Eovaldi's. |
| 2/13/1990 | Nathan Eovaldi | Nathan was supposed to be a sleeper pick headed into this season but anyone who payed attention knew about his big arm. He had a few stretches this year where he was the best pitcher for the Loons and just like Martin, he was never allowed to throw more then three innings after Aug 1st. He had a rough April, settled down in May and then went the exact opposite of Martin with a stunning June in which he allowed only two earned runs in five starts. His numbers in Aug were dreadful as the K/PA fell to 14% while the BB/PA increased to 15% after being below 9% the previous three months. He's already had TJ surgery, will his arm hold up over a full professional season? Given how few innings he pitched in 2009 the fall off in August has to be a little concerning. |
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Scott Elbert
Although he shouldn’t be eligible if Torre used him correctly.
by Tripon on Oct 26, 2009 11:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
True
it is a shocker that he he’s even still eligible for this list.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What comes first
Elbert loses rookie eligibility, or Elbert gets his AARP card? :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
From Previous Thread
stuff from the prospect insider
prospect insider
Dodgers outfielder Andrew Lambo, a lefty bat, continues to impress, showing plus power and the ability to hit the ball to center field, if not left-center. I said the first day I got here that Lambo reminds me of Andre Ethier, who I saw in the Texas League four years ago, and without being led down that road, one club’s special assistant tossed this at me:
"He’s Andre Ethier, isn’t he? Similar athletically, both throw well enough to play right, both see the ball well and the ball jumps off their bat."
Keith opines, however, and I tend to agree, that Lambo has more raw power than Ethier, but Ethier’s on-base skills are superior, and were when he was the Texas League MVP, too.
Keith and one NL scout both see disinterest in Lambo’s approach to defense, though, which sucks, but Lambo did have the three quotes of the entire week.
(Paraphrasing) To Dustin Ackley during BP: "You see that Heyward dude? He’s like you plus me without all the things we don’t do well."
Direct quote talking to Churchill: "Dip check, yay or nay?"
Direct quote talking to Jordan Danks (CWS) and others (no idea who they were talking about): "He’s built
like a billy goat, isn’t he? You ever seen those things? They’re funny, man."
at least lambo went from james loney to andre ethier with more power and less patience. I like it
there’s a video of him taking BP
by hirambocachica on Oct 26, 2009 11:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 11:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Request
I would like to see Garrett Gould added after the Top 5 are chosen.
by silverwidow on Oct 26, 2009 11:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Some big arms eh?
Elbert, Miller, Martin, Gould, Eovaldi, Lindblom, Webster.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tremendously underrated system. Power arms everywhere.
by silverwidow on Oct 26, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha
I forgot to add maybe the biggest power arm in Withrow
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
damn
withrow went from, we should have taken tim alderson, to number 1 prospect with better arm than kershaw according to dodger coach.
by hirambocachica on Oct 26, 2009 12:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Better arm than Kershaw?
That’s some very high praise.
by Ivdown on Oct 26, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
who said he has a better arm then kershaw
which dodger coach??
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was a minor league pitching coach
I think someone associated with the 66er’s. I remember when he made it because Canuck was talking about it.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was Charlie Hough
He said that Withrow has the best arm of anyone since he’d been a Dodger coach.
by silverwidow on Oct 26, 2009 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hough's Exact Words...
…were that Withrow has the best arm he has seen in the last 10 years. I don’t know how long he has been a Dodger coach. Pretty sure it isn’t as long as 10 years, but I may be mistaken about that.
by CanuckDodger on Oct 26, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hough probably didn't see Kershaw extensively though.
Since Kershaw skipped High-A.
by Tripon on Oct 26, 2009 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do we know if Hough has seen Kershaw pitch?
Charlie’s been the pitching coach at IE the past two-three years right? And Kershaw didn’t play there.
by David Young on Oct 26, 2009 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hough Would Have Seen Kershaw Enough...
…because ALL of the Dodger minor league coaches work with the minor leaguers from all levels in spring training and in instructional league. It would have been easy enough for Hough to say “the best arm of any pitcher I have had on a team I have worked with as a coach” or some such. “Best I have seen” really does seem broad to me. And to my knowledge Kershaw hasn’t been clocked as high as 99 MPH, which Withrow’s fastball supposedly was clocked at this year, according to BA.
by CanuckDodger on Oct 26, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
99 wow...
i was listening to one of ethan martins starts and he was consistently at 96 touching 97 in the first inning of the game…
but wow… 99 for withrow… as he gains more strength in his arm, he might even thrrow harder… wWOW
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know one day you are going to get this post so that I can read it.
Just like one day the Dodgers will win the world series.
by Cool Dudes on Oct 26, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you have a compelling reason why he shouldn't be?
I’m missing the point of your comment.
by Michael White on Oct 26, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hit and run comments are easy
what arguments do you have on why he shouldn’t? Based on his 25 major league innings or his 462 minor league innings starting at the age of 18?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=elbert001tim
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/elbersc01.shtml
Major league is a whole different ballgame.
Sure, our sample space is a lot smaller, but if you factor in decent, if not mediocre stats last year in both AA and AAA it’s pretty solid evidence that Scott Elbert 2010 cannot be as highly touted as Scott Elbert 2009, or even further back, for that matter.
by Talka1ot on Oct 26, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at Elbert's peripherals
will paint a much better picture of the pitcher:
with AA Chattanooga: 4.62 ERA, but 31.5% K rate and 10.9% BB rate put his FIP at 3.04. At the most double and home run friendly park in the Southern League. Elbert’s FIP would have been 3rd in the Southern League if he had enough innings to qualify.
with AAA Albuquerque: 4.28 ERA, but 25.9% K rate and 9.5% BB rate put his FIP at 3.42, which would have been 2nd in the hitter-friendly PCL if he had enough innings to qualify.
Even at the major league level in 2009, he struck out a quarter of the men he faced, and put up an x-FIP of 3.60. There is an awful lot to like from this 24-year old.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Eric, Where Did You Get...
…those AA and AAA ERA’s for Elbert? At AA this year: 3.90 ERA. At AAA: 3.74 ERA.
by CanuckDodger on Oct 26, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh man
I was looking at the wrong column…jeez. Bad weekend for me in transcribing numbers! :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is why we do this so that we can hear from both sides
but you counter with vague information. . What peripherals support your statement that he’s not on the same track he was before the arm surgery? In AAA this year he had the best command he’s ever had, and he still kept the K rate in double digits while pitching in one of the most offensive parks in baseball.
If you just feel he is not going to work out then fine, state that but if you are going to say he’s regressing can you at least prove the regression because I don’t see it, so maybe I’m missing something. What I see is a LHP who throws hard, has a solid breaking pitch, and the only thing keeping him from major league success is command or the mental capacity to deal with major league hitters because he has the stuff.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
how come elbert is not in top 100 prospect list anymore??
are they just sick of him or something?? like hes been around forever..?
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scott Elbert in 2010 will be better than 2009 because he keeps getting more experience
You are just looking purely at major league numbers with only around 30-40 innings, which is just dumb. There is a reason Elbert won the Pitcher of the Year for the Dodgers this year in the minors, even if it could have gone to 1 or 2 other pitchers.
by Ivdown on Oct 26, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol if anything
elbert’s 2009 caused me to side more with him having a chance to start
by kensai on Oct 26, 2009 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he should have been our number 2 best prospect
If you don’t think he should even be 3 then then just wow.
by Ivdown on Oct 26, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Braves are going to sign Tim Hudson to at least 3 years/$27 million.
Er….
by Tripon on Oct 26, 2009 1:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That seems a bit high, but fair. They are hoping for a Chris Carpenter from him.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hudson and Lowe
not a duo I’d like to be betting my future on for that kind of money.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh...
They have a bright future ahead of them… as if it isn’t bright enough.
by Julio Nievas on Oct 26, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever they gain from Hayward
they lose with Jones age and injuries. Nice team but we have a brigter future then the Braves.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to vote for Lambo. But I feel like I wouldn’t vote for him here if he wasn’t mashing in the AFL and it’s only 31 ABs.
I’m going with Elbert. I think we should keep him in the bullpen.
Trade Sherrill for prospects that you can flip for Halladay. Insert Elbert in as the other lefty in the bullpen.
by pdotmac1 on Oct 26, 2009 2:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
sherrill will not get you a lot of prospects
unless you deal with ned colleti which would be impossible to do now..
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why wouldn’t he?
He’s under team control for a few more years, he’s relatively cheap, he’s left-handed, he’s an All-Star Closer.
Trade partners I have in mind would be the Rays, Cubs and possibly the Yankees.
by pdotmac1 on Oct 26, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To expensive for the Rays
he may be under team control but he’s not cheap for a setup man. The Angels might be interested given the problems they had in the bullpen. Curious how Hughes/Chamberlain do in the World Series after failing so miserably in the ALCS.
Give Kuo’s tendancy to miss significant parts of a season wouldn’t you want to keep Sherrill around?
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But pdotmac1’s point was that Sherrill could be shopped as a closer. Wouldn’t he be relatively cheap for a closer?
by David Young on Oct 26, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
cheap?
he will be worth around 5 mil next year and that is too much for a loogy
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
$5M?? He made $2.75M this season.
I ’d guess his arb range to be somewhere in the $3.something million range.
by David Young on Oct 26, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
which still isn’t cheap, but doesn’t break the Dodgers budget either.
If a team had interest in him as a closer, he might be worth it to them with a contract in the neighborhood of $3.5M.
by David Young on Oct 26, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eric estimated
3.5M for 2010 I thought it was was 5M but that was for 2011. At 3.5 Mill I’d rather keep him for Kuo insurance and let Elbert give starting a try.
by meercatjohn on Oct 26, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think itll be at least 4 mill then
what did jenks get last year in his FIRST year of arb??
this is his second and he should demand at least 4 maybe more so we’ll just wait and see
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am all for Elbert being in MLB
but I see him as middle/long relief and occasional spot starting. If he shows he can pitch at the MLB level he gets moved into the rotation in the second half of 2010 or opening of 2011.
by prosellis on Oct 26, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aaron Miller
pitching for javelins today in the AFL
so far he has gone 1 inning 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk and 3 Strikeouts!!
i dont think he will go another inning considering he threw 30 pitches in 1 inning 19 for strikes..
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 8:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What’s the OF in AA going to be next year?
Lambo, Russell, Robinson and Van Slyke all appear to need spots at that level
by pdotmac1 on Oct 26, 2009 8:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It Will Be...
Lamb — LF
Robinson — CF
Van Slyke — RF
Russell is not going to skip High A. He is not good enough to skip that level with all his SO’s and that is a big problem at his age. The fact that he is blocked by Van Slyke makes it all the worse for him.
by CanuckDodger on Oct 26, 2009 8:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
van slyke got promoted to AAA for the end of the season...
might he stay there for 2010 also??
i think russell will move up to AA for sure next year tho.. he will just tear up the hitter friendly cal league anyways and get promoted to AA if they send him there…
russelll is what he is.. he strikes out a bunch and the dodgers will have to live with it with al lthe big numbers he produces..
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Van Slyke was promoted to AAA for just 3 games, as an attaboy for his nice season. Repko was called up to the Dodgers, and Hoffmann was DFA’d, so they needed some bodies. Xavier Paul was one, and Van Slyke was the other.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hoffman was signed again
and played for the AAA team while van slyke was on the bench too..
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know Hoffman signed again
but he wasn’t with the Isotopes during the final three games of the regular season (September 5-7), the three games Van Slyke was there.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 26, 2009 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s my only caveat with putting Russell in the Cal League.
He’s going to mash, but not face advanced enough pitching to make improvements or for the Dodgers to distinguish him from the next Mark Reynolds to the next Mitch Jones.
by pdotmac1 on Oct 26, 2009 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Canuck and I differ
but I see Kyle Russell playing in AA by June. Maybe they move Lambo back to his best defensive position which is 1st base:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 26, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Went with DeJesus
gun to my head elbert is a great lefty reliever and dejesus is a fringe average regular at short
latter is more valuable
by kensai on Oct 26, 2009 9:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, because a DeJesus/Gordon middle infield would be fun to watch.
by pdotmac1 on Oct 26, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
more realistic defensively
but second base is quickly becoming an offensive position, so that would put elbert ahead, imo
.280-.290/.370-.380/AVG/OBP guys are valuable at short, as Rafael Furcal proved this year, but at second base it’s below average.
by kensai on Oct 26, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to let this one run for a while
since the vote is so close.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 26, 2009 11:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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