Los Angeles Dodgers Number Six 2010 Top Prospect - Chat & Vote Story
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 29, 2009 11:48 AM PDT
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PrintTBLA Prospect Number One Chat and Vote - Chris WIthrow
TBLA Prospect Number Two Chat and Vote - Dee Gordon
TBLA Prospect Number Three Chat and Vote - Scott Elbert
TBLA Prospect Number Four Chat and Vote - Ivan DeJesus
TBLA Prospect Number Five Chat and Vote - Ethan Martin
Ethan Martin won both the poll and the insider member edition run off vote but it was nip and tuck the whole way. Members discounted yours truly opinion and even discounted Memories of Kevin Malone's own Kensai opinion by opting for Ethan Martin. This next vote will only be between Andrew Lambo and Aaron Miller. Whoever wins becomes our number six prospect and whoever loses becomes our number seven prospect and then we put a new group back on the table.
| Prospect Information |
| DOB | Prospect Name | Drafted | Info |
| 9/18/1987 | Aaron Miller | 2009 Suppl No 1 | Number one 2009 draft pick Aaron Miller was quick to make an impact with his sterling work for the Great Lake Loons, winning the first playoff game in Loon history and impressing everyone along the way. With a K/9 rate of 11.3 and BB/9 rate of 3.0 Dodgers fans will be smiling as they contemplate the future with Aaron Miller. Then again Josh Lindblom was even better in the same number of innings in his professional debut last summer and he is not even going to make the top seven this year. So maybe we are rating what Miller did to highly? Except the scouts also love him, and Lindblom looks to be a relief pitcher so I'm buying into the Miller hype for the time being. |
| 8/11/1988 | Andrew Lambo | 2007 No 4 | Muddled through his first full season of AA ball and some scouts have marked him down to a fourth outfielder. That seems very premature given his age since he only turned 21 during the season. He held his own but didn't give any indication he can hit enough to man LF but the jury is still out. With an ISOP of only .150 in combination of a walk rate below 9% he's got a lot of work to do but has plenty of time to get that work in. On the plus side he is totally mashing in the AFL as we speak. BA ranked him as the 18th top prospect in the Southern league. Canuck has compared him to Andre Ethier which is high praise indeed. Hard to compare the two because Lambo is doing his work at a much younger age then Andre did at the comparable levels. |
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I voted for Lambo
Both players above dominated in the MWL; which is more impressive for a hitter, and Lambo is younger. Then again, its not as though you can say the K/9 or the BB/9 would be affected by different park factors. Hopefully we see Miller continue to dominate more polished hitters.
Next year is huge for Lambo. He’ll be repeating AA and will have to put in a much better year.
Miller time.
Excellent!
I think the biggest thing is that I can see Miller making it to triple-A at the end of the year, and if Lambo struggles again, he’s being held at Double-A again.
It is not about getting
to the majors the fastest but being the best once they get there. Miller is the shiny new toy while Lambo’s has been put under the bed for the time being. I already brought out one raggedy old toy in DeJesus so this time I’m going with the BuzzLightYear.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 29, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Except Miller has an theoretically easier shot to make it and succeed in the majors.
Over Lambo.
Miller only has to win a starting job eventually. If not, he’s a reliever.
Lambo pretty much can only win a starting corner outfielder job. Or a the starting first baseman spot, where the competition is much greater. If not, he’s an bench outfielder who you can’t really use for defensive purposes.
Worst case scenarios barring that both flame out and reach the majors, a reliever is probably worth more than the reserve corner outfielder.
Those are good points
Lambo’s road to real success is much harder then Miller’s since he pigeon toed in as strictly a left fielder. Miller can be a top of the rotation pitcher, mid-rotation, backend rotation, Sherrill type reliever, or inconsequential setup man.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 29, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Imagine if Torre sees Miller in spring training
Takes a huge liking and wants to make him his new “Leach.” That would suck ass.
by silverwidow on Oct 29, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
They aren't
going to start his clock early just so he can be a loogy. Right now we have Sherrill, Kuo, Elbert, and aforementioned Leach ready to work from the left side.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 29, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
That's basically what the Tigers did with their Miller
who was also a left hander drafted in the first round out of college.
Hopefully that’s where the similarities end, unless we also end up trading our Miller for a franchise third basemen.
by Michael White on Oct 29, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha!
Also, Miller signed a major league contract right away. He’s the poster boy for not giving draftees a major league deal (although it’s probably more of a case-by-case basis).
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Speaking of Andrew Miller
he’s starting today against our German boy.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Hard to get any seperation between the two.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
lambo time
LF version of Andre?
yes please
by hirambocachica on Oct 29, 2009 12:44 PM PDT reply actions
Best case scenario
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 29, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
When they are on our team
we like to call the “confidence”.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 29, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, definitely
But I’m just saying that this kid has somewhat of a checkered past with his attitude. They won’t put up with that shit if he makes it.
by silverwidow on Oct 29, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I haven't heard/read any interviews
what kind of stuff does he say?
by Michael White on Oct 29, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s not so much the stuff he says. Let’s just put it this way: he comes off as “entitled.”
by silverwidow on Oct 29, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya, that's not good
I think alot of us have experienced players like that, it seems to me particularly baseball players. In college, the baseball players were the most exclusive— they had their own parties, stuff like that.
For a guy like Lambo, drafted right out of Newbury Park and immediately was a top prospect, he’s probably always been the best player on the field no matter what. Hopefully his setback this year will cause him a little bit more humility….
by Michael White on Oct 29, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
About Lambo's Attitude...
When Lambo Calrissian makes it to the show, crusty old vet Matt Kemp can complain about how the young pups don’t respect the game and their elders like they did when he was wet behind the ears. Then he can shove a garbage can in front of Lambo’s locker.
by CanuckDodger on Oct 29, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha
that was great, humility is great when dealing with co-workers but I don’t really care if a Dodger is a cocky bastard, confidence is a big part of the game.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
About Lambo's Attitude...
When Lambo Calrissian makes it to the show, crusty old vet Matt Kemp can complain about how the young pups don’t respect the game and their elders like they did when he was wet behind the ears. Then he can shove a garbage can in front of Lambo’s locker.
by CanuckDodger on Oct 29, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha Ha
that was great, humility is great when dealing with co-workers but I don’t really care if a Dodger is a cocky bastard, confidence is a big part of the game.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I also like that he knows when he's dealing
and gets that slightly smug look that says, “Yeah, I’m on today.” There was a great picture of it during the division clincher against the Rockies.
Just love the information the AFL league puts out on a daily basis.
http://mlb.mlb.com/documents/2009/10/29/7573506/1/10-29-09_Notes.pdf
For those not following the Dodgers team is the Peoria Javelinas (8-6). Nice little note on Lambo’s K rate this fall.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
That is fantastic
Its really cool that MLB is getting this information out to the fans. That has just become a must follow for me.
I’ve heard that Lambo is more or less a loose cannon and is one of the funnier guys in the system.
Maybe some of that arrogance that is detected in interviews could be sarcasm.
Just a thought
Lambo's Sense of Humor
While playing in Michigan for the Loons, Lambo began an interview with a journalist by saying that he is “from a place called southern California,” as if there was a possibility that the person he was talking to hadn’t heard of southern California.:)
by CanuckDodger on Oct 29, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
As Ed Price noted on Twitter
he’s 10-for-27 vs. Pedro. But hasn’t faced Pedro since July ’04
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
damnnn
so he was good against the GREAT PEDRO…. so now that pedro isnt as good… imagine how badly he wiill crush him..
Both Swisher & Posada sitting tonight
both a combined .265/.362/.524 against RHP this year
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Hairston & Molina are a combined .244/.304/.355 against RHP this year
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
In 2009 Dodgers terms
this is benching Ethier in favor of Juan Castro.
Twice.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
molina will get 1
maybe 2 at bats at most…
Unless of course Burnett is dealing
in which case you are just giving the other team a better chance to hold your team in check as well.
That's genius
I saw that Law had an article blasting Girardi as a coach on the dot com. Haven’t had a chance to read it though.
by Michael White on Oct 29, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Girardi just won my
most perplexing and sensless baseball decision of the post season award.
why??
molina is starting because hes the designated catcher for AJ burnett
Hairston is starting because he has great numbers off 1996-2004 pedro..
plus swisher has been REALLY sruggling
Having a designated catcher hasn’t helped Burnett in the postseason so far. Plus, even if it did help, the loss of offense from Posada to Molina must be considered.
Making a decision based in 2009 based on 1996-2004 numbers is foolish. Swisher is by far the better player right now, even when struggling.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
how about in 68 at bats career vs pedro
posada is hitting .183 with a .290 OBP with 33 Ks!!!
…with a .740 OPS (.779 including postseason).
Jose Molina is hiting .200/.273/.200 lifetime against Pedro, including postseason (in all of 12 PA), but more importantly has put up a .740+ OPS only twice in his career, and both in less than 100 PA.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
but you can still not deny the fact that
Jose molina is the designated catcher for burnett…
your starting pitcher feeling Comfortable and having trust in the catcher is the most important thing….
and that is why molina is starting
I wonder if Greg Maddux always got his designated catcher in Brave playoff games. Of course, Burnett is no Maddux.
You are arguing about the worth of the designated catcher. I was wondering how that was handled in a similar situation.
and how did maddux do
with the designated catcher? did they win those games?
No one is arguing whether or not Molina is the Designated Catcher
the question is: should he be?
I don’t much care how a pitcher feels about a situation if his results are identical or the differences re negligible.
well the results are not the same
burnett has been great with molina and not so much with posada therefore molina is going to catch him…
I understand the stated reason for Molina starting, but I am questioning the reasoning. Jose Molina can’t hit at all, and is a negligible upgrade defensively over Posada.
As far as Burnett being comfortable, if he is worth $16-17m per year he should be able to pitch to anyone. It only adds to his rep as having a million dollar arm and a ten cent head.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Did anyone complain about Greg Maddux having a designated catcher? Again, Burnett is not Maddux, but….
I remember Javy Lopez being a bit chapped at times. But I don’t remember how many times they used Eddie Perez (or whomever) in the playoffs.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha!
Looking back, it was pretty much all Eddie Perez and/or Paul Bako catching for Maddux in the Braves’ years, except for “fuck this” time in 1996, when the Braves started Javy Lopez in the NLCS down 3-2, and in both of Maddux’s starts in the WS.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Never realized this connection
Maddux – pees on teammates, used personal catcher
Posada – pees on hands, gets benched for personal catcher
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sold on the idea that the results have been significantly different
There were four good starts to end the regular season, but during the playoffs Burnett has posted a 4.42 ERA and not made it out of the sixth. During the year he had an ERA a tick over 4 and averaged right around 6.2 innings/start. Sounds like regression to the mean to me.
I have the move from Posada to Molina (for the whole game) as a 3-4% drop in WE. Rather large for one player. Using the Hairston Jr small sample size numbers is a joke. So is using the Nick Swisher smal sample size numbers.
vr, Xei
Wow
3-4% WE swing for one player (who is not a pitcher) seems huge.
What a boneheaded decision.
by Michael White on Oct 29, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Does the simulator
take any change in Burnett’s performance when Molina catches into account?
no
and thats why the simulater is what it is… a simulater… not the real game
Is that knowledge or speculation? I am actually very curious about how Frank’s simulator works.
And we’re all aware that it is a simulator and has no impact on the actual game. That doesn’t mean that it can’t provide insight into the game of baseball.
There’s no actual math behind Burnett pitching better to Molina than Posada. It’s nothing more than a legend, statistical noise and or witchcraft. Given enough pitcher catcher pairs you are bound to see some strange things just based off of random variation. If someone can come up with a model based on sound mathematics and statistical reasoning then I’d be more than happy to add it to my simulator. My guess is that the crickets will chirp.
vr, Xei
That's what I've thought all along
I was just hoping it could be demonstrated empirically.
There are a number of problems I have with this
1 – Sitting Posada for Molina during the season was fine. The playoffs aren’t a long term interest. There comes a point when you tell Burnett to deal with it, the best players play.
2 – Because Hairston was good 5 years ago against Pedro doesn’t mean you ignore what Swisher has done against RHP this year. Same goes for Posada.
I will buy into the fact that Molina is a defensive upgrade, but by how much?
2009 SB/CS against
Posada 80/31 (72.1% success rate)
Molina 23/9 (71.9% success rate)
As far as Hairston v Swisher in RF…
Plus/Minus
Swisher: +6 in 1052 innings in 2009, +11 career in 2642 innings
Hairston: -1 in 29 innings in 2009, +0 in 385 career innings
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
sb cs percentage is not everything for a catchers defensive
and i have stated this many times.. i dont believe in uzr..
i stated all my poits to why i think that even tho you might lose some offensse.. its not as bad as you think … thanks
I specifically avoided UZR for that very reason.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
what is that plus minus stat you brought up for
hairston swisher then?
Developed by John Dewan, it is from “The Fielding Bible,” and also available on BillJamesOnline.net
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
and I screwed it up…the stat I quoted was “runs saved”
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I want to know why his bullpen usage last night in the 8th inning, when the game was still 2-0 was: Hughes, Marte, somebody not named Chamberlain.
chamberlain is not much better
if at all..
He was the guy they were using in the 7th inning situation to get to Hughes. It’s almost like the Dodgers using Elbert instead of Kuo to get a lefty in the eighth, after already using Sherrill.
huh??
are you saying phil hughes and elbert have the same roles?
No
Hughes® started the 8th, got in a little trouble. Marte (L) came in to get two lefties. Then they brought in Robertson® – one of the last guys they used in the ALCS – for Werth (who he walked), when they could have used Chamberlain.
Imagine a Dodger starter going 7 innings and coming out. The similar situation for the Dodgers would be: Sherrill (L) starts the 8th, gets into trouble. Belisario® comes in to get two righties. Then Elbert comes into face a lefty when they could have used Kuo .
In this analogy only:
Hughes = Sherrill (8th inning guy)
Marte = Belisario (available LOOGY/ROOGY for this special situation)
Robertson = Elbert (front end of the bullpen guy)
Chamberlain = Kuo (7th inning guy)
We all would have screamed bloody murder if Kuo didn’t come in in that situation.
oooooooooh
i understand now!!! but robertson is wayy more proven then elbert…
i doubt that yankees fans cared much cause robertson has been flat out dominate.. K/9 2nd after broxton…
plus he dominated both rightys and leftys..
He was also the only pitcher as the bridge to Rivera with a two-run lead in the clicher against the Angels.
phil hughes as a reliever in 09
51.1 innings 31 hits 9 runs 8 ERs 2 HR 13 Walks 65 Ks .172 BAA
how can you question the decision to bring him in the game..
if anything...
with only 1 more out needed in the 8th..
i would have brought in mariona rivera.. chamberlain hasnt been goood ATALL in the postseason this year 3.1 innings 7 hits
69% of the PAs against Robertson have been low-leverage situations vs. 38% for Hughes, and 24% for Kuo, as examples. Robertson doesn’t seem like the regular 7th inning guy to me. Chamberlain was used in the 7th or 8th inning for four of the six ALCS games, one was a two-run game (but the clicher and the only reliever used between the starter and Rivera), the other were one-run or tied. No matter how successful he was or wasn’t, the role they are using him in is generally 7th inning guy, which doesn’t seem to be Robertson’s role. It just seems odd to me that they didn’t use their available 7th inning guy in that situation.
Scrubs and Better off Ted come back in Dec.
With Scrubs having a one hour season opener. (really, just two episodes smashed together.)
and now
lambo has 34 votes and aaron miller has 31….
Anyone here a subscriber for BA?
They gave Report Cards for the Draft Class of Each Team and today was the Dodgers 2009 draft class report card… i cant read it cause im not a subscriber..
its free at BA.
BEST ATHLETE: Miller has all-around tools as a right fielder and had a chance to go in the first round as a position player coming out of high school.
QUICK TAKE
Lefthanders with stuff like Miller’s don’t usually last until the No. 36 pick, and if his debut is any indication he could be a steal. The Dodgers rarely venture over MLB’s slots , but they paid Gould more than Miller ($900,000 vs. $889,200) to make sure they got him.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
BEST FASTBALL: LHP Aaron Miller (1) was primarily an outfielder in his first two years at Baylor, but his 91-95 mph fastball means his future is on the mound. RHPs Garrett Gould (2) and Steven Ames (17) and LHPs Andy Suiter (10) and Greg Wilborn (18) all top out around 94 mph. Smith was clocked as high as 96 in college, and some teams preferred him as a pitcher. >> BEST SECONDARY PITCH: Gould has a plus fastball, but his filthy curveball is his best pitch. Miller has a hard 82-83 mph slider.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Gould has a plus fastball, but his filthy curveball is his best pitch.
Is it Adam Wainwright-esque? (His curve ball)
Those are BA quotes from the report card.
I’ve never seen him pitch.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
lol
ba thinks miller throws 95..
when he starts he sits at 90 while in relief he hit 92 and 93 once in the AFL so far
Ya
Earlier today when I was looking up a scouting report on Miller, I found this on his velocity
Miller’s fastball is solid-to-average at 88-92 mph with hard, boring action in toward right-handed hitters, and he has a sharp, long-breaking slider with pretty good tilt at 81-83 mph that looks as though it should wipe out left-handed hitters. He drifts off the rubber early but otherwise has a clean delivery, and his arm action isn’t too long. He doesn’t have great physical projection and may not have the velocity to work as a starter in pro ball.
That was before the draft though….
by Michael White on Oct 29, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah
that looks like a better scouting report based on what i have seen
You brought these comments up before
and when I asked the guy who covers the Loons this is what he said.
Phil, Aaron Miller would reach the low 90s, maybe as high as 94 on a good day with the right stadium gun on him. He was NOT a soft-tosser. Plus, you have to remember, this was the first time he pitched full-time. What will he throw when he begins to work fulltime on his mechanics and arm strength?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
And this is what Kensai said at the same time
when you questioned the velocity.
Again, and I asked you this on my site, but where did you hear this?
I have one tape of him so far and he’s sitting low-90s on this scout’s gun.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
umm
i never said hes a soft tosser… based on what we have seen so far.. hes been throwing 89 to 92 and has reached 93 once or twice and this is in relief…
that doesnt mean hes a soft tosser tho.. leftys reaching 90 and sitting at 90, 91 arent soft tossers. and kensai said the same thing.. sitting low 90s.. does that mean 92 93? or 90 91?
He added soft tosser
probably because he felt if he velocity was being questioned that someone felt he was a soft tossing lefty. Anyway it sounds like he throws from 89-94 with the key for all velocity being movement. I’m not sure why you are stuck on velocity as the end all. With lefties it is late action on the fastball that separates them from RHP.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
yeah
especially this part of the scouting report..
with hard, boring action in toward right-handed hitters
and yes velocity isnt everything.. but velocity= more Ks.. which is nice to have..
Ha
BEST ATHLETE: Miller has all-around tools as a right fielder and had a chance to go in the first round as a position player coming out of high school.
That totally contradicts the last sentence of your post.
Yup, the opninions are certainly different.
As you know, evaluating prospects is more art than science anyway. I don’t think Kensai did a scouting report on Miller yet (at least I couldn’t find one on his blog) so I had to settle for just googling one.
by Michael White on Oct 29, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Who do ya love
Aaron Miller Aaron Miller Aaron Miller Aaron Miller
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
my guess is
they wanted him to have playing time everyday.. and in A ball, the outfield was full and he wouldnt play everyday..
next year he will be tho
whoops
didnt see that phil answered already..
dont know
they have to see who plays where and who geets promoted and everrything and were there is room
No room
heck Sands did more then Galvez in Ogden and they had to put him at first. Russel/Buss/Silverio and since they refused to promote Russell, Galvez had to stay. They did find time for Songco though, so maybe they should have found some time for Galvez. After playing in New Mexico and Ogden, Galvez is going to find the MWL a different animal.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I reiterate that I know nothing
except what I read, but I voted for Miller. Pitchers with that kind of skill have a better chance of making the team and having an impact when they do.
As for tonight’s game, I realized last night that I am rooting for the Phillies. It makes the Dodgers look better if they win— just like last year, only the champions beat us.
~$1750 could have been yours, guaranteed… :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 29, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
AFL UPDATE
Travis Shlichting: 4 innings 4 hits 2 ER 1 walk 2 Ks…. gave up 3 hits in the first inning but only 1 run..
Lambo: 2 for 4, 2 singles 1 run 1 K
Lucas May 0 for 2. 1 walk 1 K 1 RBI (sac Fly)
According to the recap
Lambo’s two singles were an infield single to 1st base, and pop fly single to CF. Cleanup hitter Russ Mitchell comes back to earth with an ofer.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
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