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Los Angeles Dodgers Number Eight 2010 Top Prospect - Chat & Vote Story

1 Chat and Vote Chris WIthrow
2 Chat and VoteDee Gordon
3 Chat and Vote - Scott Elbert
4 Chat and Vote - Ivan DeJesus
5.Chat and Vote - Ethan Martin
6.Chat and Vote - Andrew Lambo
7.                             Aaron Miller

Andrew Lambo held off Aaron Miller in a very tight race to take the six spot, giving Miller the 7th spot. If you thought those races were tight wait until you see how the next couple of votes go. We will bring back everyone who lost out during the previous seven votes, plus we will bring in an old timer in Xavier Paul and a newcomer in Allen (Carl) Webster.

 

Prospect Information
DOB Prospect Name Drafted Info
7/19/1991 Garrett Gould 2009 No 2 Gould only pitched in three games for Ogden so any support for him will have to come from what he did in high school. From the baseball factory:
Gould is a big, strong RHP who is aggressive with his fastball that pushes into the low 90s. There is some deception to his high effort delivery and a curve ball with bite and change with fade round out his repetoire
This is what Kensai has to say about him
2/13/1990 Nathan Eovaldi 2008 No 11 Nathan was supposed to be a sleeper pick headed into this season but anyone who payed attention knew about his big arm. He had a few stretches this year where he was the best pitcher for the Loons and just like Miller, he was never allowed to throw more then three innings after Aug 1st. He had a rough April, settled down in May and then went the exact opposite of Martin with a stunning June in which he allowed only two earned runs in five starts. His numbers in Aug were dreadful as the K/PA fell to 14% while the BB/PA increased to 15% after being below 9% the previous three months. He's already had TJ surgery, will his arm hold up over a full professional season? Given how few innings he pitched in 2009 the fall off in August has to be a little concerning.
2/25/1985
Xavier Paul
Paul has climbed every step of the minor league ladder and finally made it to the big leagues in May only to be felled by a nasty infection that basically ended his season. In April he destroyed AAA which got him called up upto the Dodgers. Bad luck found him and instead of backing up Juan Pierre during the Manny suspension he was in the hospital fighting a nasty infection. By the time he was healthy it was Sept so other then a few rehab at bats for the Isotopes his season was done. If he's centerfielder then he might be able to produce something along the levels of Shane Victorino, if he's only a corner then being a platoon outfielder is probably his future
2/10/1990 Allen Webster No 18 2008 Where did he come from? Just an 18th round pick in 2008, Webster was ranked by BA as the 3rd best prospect in the Arizona League, where this 19 year old turned some heads. From BA
No AZL player boosted his prospect stock this season as much as Webster, who's listed in the MLB database by his first name (Carl) but prefers to go by his middle name. An 18th-round pick in 2008, he walked 17 batters in 18 innings during his first pro season in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. After moving to Arizona when the Dodgers shifted their complex-based affiliate, he posted a 56-14 K-BB ratio in 48 innings before continuing to excel following a promotion to the Rookie-level Pioneer League. Though Webster still is growing into his 6-foot-2, 165-pound frame, he already has a fastball that reaches 94-95 mph. He throws strikes with his heater, as well as with a plus breaking ball and a promising changeup that he needs to use more often. Dodgers pitching instructor George Culver said an improved delivery was the key to Webster's big step forward. "He had a lot of issues with it last year. He was a green pea," said Culver. "His mechanics right now are as good as you want to see with a kid with no more pitching experience than he's had.
9/1/1987 Trayvon, Robinson 2005 No 10 No one made a bigger move up the prospect ladder then Trayvon Robinson who came into the year with a reputation as a slap hitter with great speed who struck out to much and had little plate discipline. He ended the 2009 campaign as the starting CF for the AA Lookouts after torching the California League, showing large not subtle improvement in his power and plate discipline.
6/15/1987 Josh Lindblom 2008 No 2 2008 number two pick Lindblom started out in AA working in relief and starting but once promoted to AAA he was used strictly as a relief pitcher. He had a good year but not a dominating year and failed to make any top prospect lists.

Poll
TBLA Prospect Number Eight
Josh Lindblom
47 votes
Xavier Paul
33 votes
Trayvon Robinson
33 votes
Garrett Gould
7 votes

120 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 119 comments |

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Comments

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2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 30, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Craig Sager is insanely jealous.

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

trayvon robinson

running away early on…

4 votes for him.. 1 vote for eovaldi 0 for everyone else

by matthewmafa on Oct 29, 2009 11:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Small sample size! :)

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trayvon was thrown out at 2nd base

much like what has happened to him 103/46 (69%) throughout his minor league career.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In the few games I covered with the 66ers, the general feeling around the team was that Trayvon was one of the dumbest baserunners ever. I heard a lot of “watch him run into an out here” or “c’mon, Trayvon, again???”

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Paul Oberjuerge will love him.

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Allen Webster

Since it has been established by a number of sources that Webster goes by his middle name instead of his first name (much like Timothy Scott Elbert), I don’t think he should be referred to as Carl Webster. If the argument is that the statistical record-keepers haven’t gotten the memo on what to call him, I don’t think that their being in error justifies continuing the error.

by CanuckDodger on Oct 29, 2009 11:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I voted for Trayvon.

Hopefully he does well in AA next year.

by pdotmac1 on Oct 29, 2009 11:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Eovaldi

19 and already throwing 98 mph? I’ll take it.

by silverwidow on Oct 30, 2009 12:17 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Eovaldi

You follow him closer than I do, but looking up his numbers this morning I’m not terribly impressed. His SO/9 is 6.6 (one of the worst on the Loons pitching staff) so despite his 98mph fastball he’s not really making hitters miss. Phil mentioned his walk rate jumped at the end of the year. I still have him with a pretty strong FIP of 3.27 but that’s really driven by the fact that he only gave up 2 homeruns all year. But that could easily be a function of the MWL and I couldn’t really find any data determining what his HR/FB ratio was compared to the rest of the league, so I don’t really know if that low HR rate is impressive. I’ll be interested to see how he does in A+ next year but by breaking down these numbers it doesn’t seem like he’ll have nearly as impressive of a year. The ball will be flying out of the park in the Cal League and he’ll need to keep down the BB’s and strike out more batters to compensate for that.

I think we’ll have a better idea on Eovaldi next year.

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bet he never sees

the Cal league next year and spends the whole year in the MWL. Until he can prove he can start and throw innings he’s a power armed relief pitcher to me. He may have better stuff then anyone here but if it can’t translate to the rotation then I don’t see how he’s a better option then Lindblom at this point. That has plenty of value but I don’t see him having more value then anyone we have voted on yet.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trayvon

more upside than Lindblom if Lindblom is being groomed into a bullpen piece.

BTW, when does Kyle Russel start getting included in the fun?

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 7:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t see any room for Kyle until at least the 12 spot vote.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ya, you are right

Russell is probably the most controversial prospect to deal with, so it should be fun to debate where he ranks….

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Our top 15 is going to be solid

Just imagine if Santana/Bell/Johnson were still here.
Santana would be number one. Bell probably number three, and Johnson may not make the top 12.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 7:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What happened to my Eovaldi vote? He’s not there and neither is Webster….?

by silverwidow on Oct 30, 2009 9:08 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Because

they weren’t getting any traction I removed them. With such a close vote going on for Robinson/Paul/Lindblom I didn’t want any future votes to take away from main ones.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought I'd made a post about removing them

but it is not here. Sorry about the confusion. I did it at 07:00 this morning.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m amazed that Lindlbom is beating Robinson.

Are those voting for Lindlbom assuming that he will return to starting?
That’s the only way I see it as justifiable

by pdotmac1 on Oct 30, 2009 9:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I can easily justify it

 Robinson is no guarantee to be a starting CF. He made some big strides this year but it was in the Cal League. I’ve seen Goldstein question if he can remain at CF, he has the speed but evidently does not read the ball terribly well. Even if he remains at CF will he hit enough to merit a starting job. He strikes out a lot and while his plate discipline did improve this year will it stick? Will the power he gained stick?. He has improved his stock tremendously compared to last year where he wasn’t even considered a blue chip prospect but has he improved enough to beat out a number two pick who has had nothing but success, and by the end of his 1st professional season was doing an excellent job in the offensive fueled Isotope park? Even if that ceiling is in the bullpen. Lindblom may not be in the rotation but he could possibly develop into a shutdown setup man or even closer.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For example let us say that

Trayvon Robinson can become something like Coco Crisp (2004/2005 version) which is what I think his skill set compares to. Is Coco Crisp better then a closer if Lindblom can reach that level? Now some will snort about Coco but for a few years before he hurt his wrist Coco was a valuable CF partly based on his defense but also on the growth in power he started exhibiting at age 24/25. When the power left after the wrist injury or other external factors Crisp become near useless but for two years he was a valuable player. So for me if Trayvon can become 2004/2005 Crisp then he’s one of our top prospects, but if his ceiling is the rest of Crisps career then I’d go for Lindblom. It really depends on what you think Trayvon is going to become but since he’s only had one successful professional season we are all guessing on which road he takes.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I voted for Trayvon

just saying I can understand voting for Lindblom.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those questions about Robinson that you mentioned are a little odd to me.

Ned Colletti signed Juan Pierre AND Andruw Jones because he didn’t think a certain prospect could read balls in CF. We saw how that ended up.

We also saw what happened the last time it was argued one of our switch hitting prospects might be a fluke because it was the Cal League.

It’s not that I don’t like Lindblom, but if he’s not a starter I don’t see how he matches up with the value that Robinson would bring if he can continue to develop.

Robinson is a unique case, although it was still the Cal League, it was his second season learning how to switch hit, and he did very well becoming a switch hitter.

by pdotmac1 on Oct 30, 2009 10:07 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the key statement you make is
if he can continue to develop.

, we don’t know if he will or won’t. His K rate may kill him at the higher levels since he doesn’t have enough power to justify the k rate. Much of his worth is being valued on what he did in the California League so that should worry everyone since he did nothing of note before.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly. That’s why that one person/group (is it Sickels?) gives a ceiling rating with a probability rating of reaching that ceiling. Probability matters. Lindbloom making at least some appearances as a major-league pitcher are very high given where he is now, for example. Robinson’s probabilities have got to be lower.

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

baseball hq does that

i try to as well

it’s the only way to really evaluate prospects, imo

by kensai on Oct 31, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I voted XP. Just because I was so disappointed with Windows Vista…

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 30, 2009 11:27 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Kyle Russell

Kyle Russell (OF) 2009 = .272 (Avg); .371/.545/.916 (Ob/Sl/Op); 26/102 (Hr/Rbi) lol not on list!

by joshburke2 on Oct 30, 2009 11:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

..and stole 20 bases!

Mark Reynolds prototype, but yeah, yer right; he does suck.

by joshburke2 on Oct 30, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reynolds was in the majors at age 23 (baseball age), not low A

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

w.t...?

dude was college, yo!

by joshburke2 on Oct 30, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nobody is saying Kyle Russell sucks. But his strikeout rates as one of the older players in his league is alarming, and doesn’t bode well for him going forward. He would have to show massive improvement in that regard against tougher competition to justify a higher ranking among Dodger prospects.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We all know who Management wants us to believe are Prospects. They use us to hype guys who they intend to trade (ala Abreu, LaRoache, Chuck Tiffany, Joel Guzman, etc.). Guys who they don’t mind losing. To me a Prospect is a guy that another scout from another organization might actually want.

by joshburke2 on Oct 30, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure what management has todo with this

We are voting on who we think are the best Dodger prospects, not for any other agenda.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 12:15 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I read your website and its awesome, but “Elbert-gate” took place today. Just one man’s opinion.

by joshburke2 on Oct 30, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I honestly have no idea what you are talking about.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 12:47 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Evidently not an Elbert fan

so I suspect he’s talking about Elbert winning the fourth place vote.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They use us to hype guys who they intend to trade (ala Abreu, LaRoache, Chuck Tiffany, Joel Guzman, etc.).

Do you hear that Eric? They’re using us! They’re just using us all!!!

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 30, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Josh Byrnes, to one of his staff: “Hey, remember when I said to gather that data from our own scouts on those Dodger prospects? Yeah, just scrap that idea. Instead, do me this solid and peruse a few Dodger blogs to see who the real gold nuggets are.”

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I feel so dirty and used!!!

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 30, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In the 3rd round of the 2008 draft

there were 12 college hitters drafted besides Russell. Russell is older than all of them except Sawyer Carroll (OF drafted by the Nats). Nine of the 12 have advanced higher than Russell.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Russel isn't struggling

at any point yet. Him not advancing to A+ is irrelevant because the Cal League is extremely hitter friendly and there is little value in moving him there. I expect/hope him to skip it and start out next year in AA.

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is producing, but striking out 32% of the time against low A is alarming. He has potential, but needs to do something at a higher level before being rated higher as a prospect.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree about wanting to see what he can do in AA

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

On the the same token

none of them won the MWL MVP award. Russell is a very unique player but the only thing we have to judge him on is a full season of MWL stats. For all we know he would have done just as well in AA this year, or he could also have struggled more then Lambo. We’ve never had a player dominate the MWL league like he did. One thing for sure, we will have a better read on his future at this time next year. Is he a late blooming Howard who adds value with his defensive ability or a better defensive version of Branyan or another Billy Ashley.
.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

23 years old and still play Single-A

To defend Russel here, I don’t see how that’s his fault. When he was drafted he mashed in Rookie Ball. He is supposed to mash Rookie Ball pitching and he did. This year he played in the MWL and mashed pitching there.

I also want to see what he can do against more advanced pitching, but just saying his age and his level as though its the full story seems superficial. If he had struggled at a certain level (like Lambo this year) then it would make sense to bring up his level as evidence of his lack of development but that hasn’t happened with Russel yet. He’s performed up to this point and I’m excited to see what he can do in AA.

All that being said, I certainly don’t rank him higher than any of the 3 prospects above.

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is not his fautl

but it is very hard to get a read on his future when the 23 year old college pro is crushing 20/21/22 year old pitchers but still striking out 32% of the time.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fielding Bible 2009 Award winners

http://www.fieldingbible.com/

C Y. Molina
1B Pujols
2B Aaron Hill
3B Zimmermann
SS Jack Wilson
LF Crawford
CF Franklin Gutierrez
RF Ichiro
P Buehrle

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 1:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Just out of curiosity

Why was Xavier brought in so late? I can easily see him being a Victorino ++ type guy. Is this site biased against old young guys too, and not just biased against old twilight of their career guys?

by Cool Dudes on Oct 30, 2009 1:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sure about any bias

Can you make an argument for X Paul ahead of any of the first seven above? If so, I’m sure Phil would have considered your position. Silverwidow has made several requests to include certain prospects and Phil has obliged.

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes I can make an arguement

He’s ready to play or at least try out for MLB right now. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush,etc etc etc. There’s many arguments you can make. Just wondering what the methodology is.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 30, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If that were as important, the rankings would be something like:

1) Everyone in AAA
2) Everyone in AA
3) Everyone in High A
4) Everyone in Low A

and so on.

It’s about striking a balance between future impact and likelihood of reaching that potential.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe that is someone's opinion

That’s the point of getting a consensus, you get a wide variety of opinions and majority wins.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 30, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So, are you saying that you think the criterion should be who could help the team most immediatelly?

In that case Leach would be ranked higher than Withrow.

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I'm not setting the criteria, I'm wonder what the reasoning is.

Now that you mention it, what the hell is a “Top Prospect”.

Highest ceiling/ most likely to make a contribution to MLB team/ best performance / best name / better looking / knows how to play the game the right way / steadily improving year after year?

I think based upon the votes it has been highest ceiling, but I’m sure people are considering current performance and likelihood to make majors, otherwise you would just pick the lowest draft choice regardless of age ;).

by Cool Dudes on Oct 30, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Personally, I consider ceiling, range of outcomes, and probability of achieving them, but in a non-numeric, intuitive sense. Or in words, a slightly educated guess based on the stats and scouting reports I’ve seen. But my samples are small because I am not a prospects maven like Phil, kensai, Canuck Dodger, etc.

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

CD – I don’t think there is necessarily a biased againsted XP (I voted for him now), but I think the perception might be that he does not have the high potential ceiling that the other 7 might be percieved to have. Like SW said, I’m sure Phil would have accomidated had a TBLA commentor spoke up and asked for XP’s inclusion…

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 30, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

againsted

Damn! I gotta stop typing while under the influence of cold medicine!

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Oct 30, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

since you’re correcting things, it was me who said that, not SW :)

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hadn’t brought him out until now because I never thought he’ d get much traction against the top seven. Many people consider him a fourth outfielder but I do think he has an outside chance to be a Victorino provided he gets lucky enough to get the opportunity. Working against him is the fact that even though he produced in AAA this year, alot of the damage he did was as a left hand batter at home. So he produced in one of the friendliest home parks in baseball. I doubt he can survive as a full time switch hitter given his struggles against LHP.

Paul has never cracked a top 100 hundred list from the likes of BA or Sickels or BP. He has a great arm but is not considered a great outfielder. It has been years since he cracked a top 20 league prospect list. Scouts are just not impressed but the same could have been said of Victorino. I really doubt if he’d gotten many votes if I had brought him out early based on the last year of comments from our members during our prospect updates.

To address your comment about bias, many will think we rate Scott Elbert to high compared to the new young guns.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ha, I already know you are an ageist

that wasn’t a real question :)

Thanks for the explanation.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 30, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bias against twilight of their career guys

We have members who dislike anyone over 30 but I don’t think that is the case with Eric or myself. I see plenty of value in having twilight guys on the bench instead of young guns wasting their time watching the game instead of playing it. I’ve argued for the trades of Belliard/Marlon Anderson/Sweeny whenever they have occured as long as the outgoing price was minimal.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

and not to pick on “you” I should say “everyone on this site in general”, in summary we hate old players unless they put up Manny numbers, then they are exempt, and when Manny is hitting like Loney, we’ll throw him in the trash bin.

Not making a commentary, just an observation.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 30, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why shouldn’t we ‘hate’ old, expensive players who suck?

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He hit well in AAA, then he hit the crap out of the ball against MLB/AAA players in spring, which again, doesn’t really mean anything. But then when he was brought up, he was still hitting hot till he got hurt. There is a chance he was just going to keep hitting like that, even though most people assume he will level off, but the point is he might not in which case he would immediately have a chance for ph or 4th outfielder, or starter in 2011.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 30, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

16 PA

in 11 games (still small though, which was your point)

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

MinorLeagueSplits.com has MLEs for just about everyone, and Paul’s 2009 in ABQ (.328/.372/.500) translated into a major league line of .252/.288/.351

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The problem with Paul, and it wasn't really a problem with Paul

Is that he wasn’t really been used as a 4th outfielder when he was with the Dodgers. Torre wouldn’t bench Juan Pierre, because he wanted to ride JP as hard as he could before Manny came back from the suspension.

I think Paul got one start in center, one start in RF, and that’s it? That’s not really 4th outfield duty.

by Tripon on Oct 30, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure he was

He played in 11 out of 13 possible games before he got hurt

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he is the 4th OF with Manny as the LF instead of Pierre, he will get plenty of playing time.

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cripes!

What the hell do you have to hit for Albuquerque to get a decent MLE? .400 / .475 / .650? Is there a known problem with MLE when you get to the extremes?

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking the same thing

Slug .500 and it still MLE’s you out to a crappy level….

by Michael White on Oct 30, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I was kind of shocked by that one, too

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do the MLEs just apply a function to the triple-slash stats

Or do they look deeper at K ratio, BB ratio, LD%, etc.?

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It seems like they dig deeper into the inputs, and batted ball data, based on the ones I found

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I looked up Abreu

.353/.385/.615 in ABQ

his MLE = .274/.302/.457

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mitch Jones

.297/.364/.651 becomes .226/.281/.453

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hector Luna

.351/.414/.610 becomes .260/.312/.419

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which is still better

then paying Loretta $1M to do less.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I knew that was coming. :)

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am consistent

is 260/312/419 bad for a bench guy. I’d think that would be pretty good, but then using MLE’s for someone who will only get spot time doesn’t really work either. I doubt if anyone’s numbers when they get fewer then 100 ab’s over a full year would be better then full time or platoon work.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A. J. Ellis

.320 / .444 / .382 becomes .236 / .340 / .281

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As bad as that looks

wasn’t our boy flirting with a .300-.310 slug% most of the year.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was never below .310 after July 9, but yeah, weak. Martin bottomed again later at .318 after Sept 9th’s game, before finishing at .329. Ouch.

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eric Stults in ABQ

.500 / .545 / .700 becomes .400 / .455 / .600

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read that Planske article (damn you LA Times top 10 viewed stories)

Is it just me, or is he really getting worse week to week?

Seriously, I’m having trouble getting enraged because its all just become bewildering stupid gibberish. Its like getting mad at the homeless guy screaming “Jerk, stop steeling my Schemoteter, Sarah Sarah” wandering down the street.

I mean even stupid people must be having a hard time with him.

by Cool Dudes on Oct 30, 2009 1:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

From Diamond Lueng
Dodgers outfielder Trayvon Robinson – @TRobinsonAFL

Dodgers outfielder Blake Smith – @Blake_Smith

Giants pitcher Ryan Sadowski – @incugator

Giants pitcher Garrett Broshuis – @broshuis

Former Dodgers infielder Josh Bell – @JBellAFL

Former Giants pitcher Francisco Liriano – @liriano47

And you can follow me @diamond83

by Tripon on Oct 30, 2009 2:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunate suffix for Trayvon

not thinking long term :)

From Blake Smith yesterday afternoon:

Looks like i’ll be going back to camelback ranch for a week to do some workouts

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmmm. What does this mean, if true, for the O. Hudson market? Somewhat similar hitters, same age, Hudson better rep with glove, Hudson injury issue riskier than Sanchez’s (?). I’m guessing it’s in the, uh, ballpark.

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Should help him

since it also takes a competitive 2nd baseman off the FA market. Hudson wanted a three year deal of 3/24 last year so if he can get 2/12 this year then he only lost around 4 Mill over three years which is a hell of lot better then Burrell did and will do.

Man did the Phillies come out smelling like a rose on that one, moving out Burrell and bringing in Ibanez based on 2009 numbers.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Should I call if for Lindblom

and only have Paul/Robinson fight it our for who is our best centerfielder of the future in the next poll?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 4:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Don’t forget to include Russell :)

by Eric Stephen on Oct 30, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You probably can safely call it for Lindblom, but I would expand the list for the next poll. At this point, it seems possible that other names can gain traction.

Is it going to be daily through the weekend, that is, a Saturday poll, a Sunday poll, a Monday poll, etc.?

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

we don’t get the same visitors on the weekend. This next one will run through the weekend and Monday at noon, unless one of them just dominates.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s good for me!

by David Young on Oct 30, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Kyle Russell's Name...

…is put in the poll before Scott Van Slyke’s I…am…going…to…scream.

by CanuckDodger on Oct 30, 2009 5:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not adding Russell

until after the top ten are done. You know no one is going to vote for Van Slyke as a top 15 but I’ll put him in the poll and see what happens after the top 10 are done. You may have to make the argument for him because I won’t have a very strong one.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 30, 2009 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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