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Playoff Thoughts - Is it in our best interest to LOSE these 2 games?

Some members of TBLA, along with Dodger fans everywhere, are in a state of full panic over the struggles the team has gone though lately. With a 6.5 game lead with 7 to go, only a choke of epic proportions would've lost us the division. Yet here we are, only 2 losses away from being stuck with the wild card and the #4 seed in what's looking like the toughest NL postseason in some time. Which brings up my point: Would we be better served for the playoffs if we lost these games?

Star-divide

Here's my reasoning. If we do end up winning a game, and the division, we most likely get St. Louis (with home field). If we fall to the wild card, we get Philly (without home field). To me, the Phillies match-up sounds much more appealing. The Phillies are the worst home team in the league of all playoff teams, and the best road team overall. They have a lefty-filled lineup, and our pitching staff's 1-2 punch are both lefties - both of whom are death to left handed hitters. Not to mention the bullpen trio of Kuo, Sherrill, and Brox, all of whom have better stats against lefties.

Meanwhile, as much pub as the Phillies have gotten over the Cliff Lee signing trade, the Cardinals rotation (and bullpen) are much better. We all know what the Cards pitching can do. Carpenter, Wainright, Piniero and co. have been dominant in the 2nd half especially, and the bullpen (with the exception of last night) has been lights out. Meanwhile, to say that the Phillies pen is a mess would be an understatement. They have no closer, their setup man is trying to close and failing, and the rest of the pen is mediocre at best. The only major problem with facing the Phillies is that Ethier would be going against lefties in games 1 and 2 on the road. Ouch.

After the NLDS (assuming we win) is where this theory gets dicey. Obviously we don't want to play the Cardinals in St. Louis 4 times. But check out the Colorado-St. Louis season series. Colorado leads 6-1, including a 4 game sweep in St. Louis in June. Sure, the Cards are playing a lot better now. But that thought of the sweep will still be there. It's a different Cardinal team, but the Rox should still have all the confidence in the world that they can beat them.

So if that does happen and we get the Rockies in the NLCS, we all know our record against them. Even if we do get swept here, we'll take the season series 12-6 - including 7-2 at Coors. To me, the Rockies don't have an advantage at home against us, because the huge park plays into the hands of our gap power. I think we would easily take the Rockies in a playoff series (provided we start playing better, obviously)

So there you have it. It's a bit hopeful, as the Rockies will definitely be the underdog against St. Louis. But to be honest, I don't want to play the Cards, and I think the Rockies have the best chance to beat them. Meanwhile, I think we'd be favored over Philly even on the road (maybe not in Vegas, but I personally think we'd win), along with against Colorado. Every team wants to win the division, and no one wants to be remembered for such a huge choke. But instead of panicking, Dodger fans, think about it: Do we help our world series hopes by losing these games?

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Absolutely not

If you believe in momentum, confidence or even three quarters of half of what Yogi Berra believes regarding the mental side of the game, the Dodgers absolutely cannot lose the last seven games of the season, watching Colorado race past in winning their last seven. Regardless of playoff matchups – if your goal is the World Series (and it should be the Dodgers given their affixation at the top of the NL standings all year), you can’t worry about matchups. You will have to beat everyone.

The big difference is home field advantage, which Los Angeles certainly needs.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 3, 2009 9:16 AM PDT reply actions  

Have you any facts to defend those positions?

The big difference is home field advantage, which Los Angeles certainly needs.

Why?

I certainly want HFA, but need it? Teams win championships without HFA all the time.

And why does Los Angeles certainly need it?

The Dodgers have the same road record at St. L and both the Cardinals and Dodgers have a better road record than Colorado.

by Michael White on Oct 3, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hmm my bad

I glazed over Erics article on road dodgers and it seemed like the road was tougher than it in face is. So you’re saying home field would be better for the rockies then? I guess there’s plenty to play for this weekend after all :)

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 3, 2009 9:49 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

though im sure

A scufflung team would value starting the playoffs at home

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 3, 2009 10:02 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Pythag W/L for Playoff Teams

LAD- 97-63
PHI- 91-69
StL- 90-70
COL- 89-71

I think people are making way too much of the head to head games against St. Louis.

The Dodgers have been the best team in the NL all year (if a bit unlucky) and the Dodgers shouldn’t be concerned with playing St. Louis. Let’s win this thing today, house money it up tomorrow, and help St. Louis regress to the mean.

by Michael White on Oct 3, 2009 9:43 AM PDT reply actions  

Newton & Darwin

From a Newtonian point of view, we have to win. Objects in motion tend to stay in motion—-and our motion has been down. In a Darwinian sense, we have to go in and prove that we are the fittest and that we can evolve as a team. This means using our assets and not those attributes that are worthless. Like Thome, for instance. What were we thinking? The guy has always been terrible off the bench and he still is. I’m not putting our troubles on him, but to look to him as a pinch hitter is plain silly. Let’s get down to business. Let’s make the Dodgers champs tonight (it’s True Blue Night, after all). Kershaw, be a hero. Let’s hope the good Kershaw shows up, not the nervous kid.

"It's a cookbook!"---The Twilight Zone

by Buck18 on Oct 3, 2009 4:00 PM PDT reply actions  

St. Louis?

As much as I dislike the Cardinals. The Dodgers can’t beat them! Look at their record over the last 5 years. I live in St. Louis and hate to see my team play the Cardinals! Unless they start hitting, does it really matter who they play? It’s ashame they can’t roll into the playoff’s playing good baseball like the best in the west with the best record in the NL. There is no momentum! Torre better change things up! Bleeding Dodger Blue!

by 1LAfan on Oct 3, 2009 5:15 PM PDT reply actions  

I think the Rockies would like to trade you Philly for St. Louis

It seems we both ended up with the team that matches up with our team the worst

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 3, 2009 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 37 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$112,162,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
60 Matt Chico lhp
29
35 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
62 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
33 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 19

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