The Dodgers & Their Postseason Roster
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 12:00 PM PDT
in Roster
119 comments
The rosters for the division series don't need to be turned in until 10am on Wednesday, but here's a look at the likely Dodger NLDS active roster. Keep in mind, this is what I think the Dodgers will do, not necessarily what I would want them to do.
| NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers | |||
| Game 1 | Wed | Dodger Stadium |
6:37pm |
| Game 2 | Thu | Dodger Stadium | likely 3:07pm |
| Game 3 | Sat | Busch Stadium | 3:07pm |
| Game 4* | Sun | Busch Stadium | TBD |
| Game 5* |
Oct 13 |
Dodger Stadium | TBD |
| *if necessary | All times Pacific | ||
| All games televised on TBS | |||
First, the locks:
Catchers (2)
Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus
Infielders (7)
James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Ronnie Belliard, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta
Outfielders (4)
Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre
Starting Pitchers (2)
Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw
Relief Pitchers (5)
Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso
That leaves five spots:
Lefty Pinch-Hitter (1)
Jim Thome has struggled as a pinch hitter, both this season and in his career. He has four singles in 17 at-bats as a Dodger. He can't run, because he's slow and because he has a bad foot. He can't play first base, because of chronic back problems. Yet I believe he will make the roster over Doug Mientkiewicz, simply because Thome represents the threat of power, something lacking on the Dodger bench. Mientkiewicz would be a fine choice for a spot, especially if his shoulder is healed enough to play first base if needed, and in fact I would take him over Loretta, but I don't think that will happen.
Starting Pitchers (2)
Three guys are fighting for two spots, to start games three and four. Joe Torre hasn't officially named his starters for those games yet, but based on other comments he has made, I believe Chad Billingsley will start game three as long as he gets through his simulated game today in Arizona without any problems. That leaves Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland fighting for the other two spots. Padilla has pitched better of late, but over the course of the season, they were pretty similar pitchers (4.46 FIP for Padilla, 4.48 for Garland). I believe Padilla will be the choice to start Sunday in St. Louis.
Relief Pitchers (2)
I think Garland gets the nod as the long man in the pen, leaving Jeff Weaver out in the cold. That leaves one more bullpen spot, which I think will go to James McDonald, over Guillermo Mota and Scott Elbert. McDonald had a good season as a reliever, after a shaky start in the rotation, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 3.41 FIP from the bullpen. Over the last two months, McDonald has passed Mota on the depth chart, even when Mota was fully healthy. The other viable option is Elbert, because the Cardinals struggle so much against left-handed pitchers. However, the Cardinals really only have three lefty batters: Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, and Rick Ankiel. Their struggles with southpaws are largely due to their right handers failing to hit them (hitting .244/.328/.392), and I don't think Torre would use Elbert to face a righty, regardless of how they hit lefties. If the Dodgers were facing the Phillies, Elbert would have been more likely to make the roster, simply because they have more left handed batters Elbert could face in a LOOGY situation.
That's my prediction for the NLDS roster. What's yours?
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I think Doug M. makes it
over Thome because with him you get a little more of a hitter used to pinch hitting. Ideally, Thome should have been able to play first base a few times the last month, keeping his skills sharp, but that was impossible. Plus, I think Doug can pop a homer or double to the gap in the right situation. Why couldn’t Loretta be left off and have both Thome and Doug on? Doug was able to play first base yesterday. They have two third basemen and two seond basemen. Is the only reason to keep Sweet Loretta on because he is right handed?
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 5, 2009 12:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I would rather they kept Doug M. on the roster
over Loretta. He can play first base and even though that only gives them one righty off the bench, he just doesn’t seem overmatched like Loretta does and he can still drive a ball to the gap or maybe even out of the ball park.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 5, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Somehow I see Weaver making this roster.
by meercatjohn on Oct 5, 2009 12:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I would rather him than Garland
because he is used to the bullpen and warming up quick.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 5, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
prediction and preference
Agree with your “locks”- Loretta remembered how to hit the ball just in time to make it.
Prediction:
- Doug M. (since he can field)
- Bills, Padilla (assuming Bills does OK in AZ— Padilla more likely to dominate than Garland)
- Elbert, Garland (Elbert exploits Cards lefty troubles, Coletti didn’t work hard to get Garland to have him sit out the postseason)
Preference:
- Thome (his numbers are worse than his actual performance- he’s crushed a few pitches that were caught deep in the outfield, and I love the thought of him facing a struggling Franklin)
- Bills, Padilla (I REALLY want Bills to prove the doubters, myself included, wrong. Good Padilla can carve up the Cards- he’s more likely to show up than Bad Padilla, albeit just barely)
- Elbert, Weaver (as far as I’m concerned, Weaver’s earned it- plus, he did good against the Cards in that extra inning game)
by sarcastro9 on Oct 5, 2009 12:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What makes you think Franklin is ever going to get in the game? :P
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
by Jesse S. on Oct 5, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simulated game
I believe Chad Billingsley will start game three as long as he gets through his simulated game today in Arizona without any problems.
This may be a good time for me to ask exactly what a simulated game is. I picture it as just throwing certain pitches called by a catcher rather than throwing a bullpen session. But your point about getting through it without problems confused me. How could he have problems? Are there batters involved, can he give up hits?
by Michael White on Oct 5, 2009 12:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They will likely have batters stand in against him, but they might only swing once every 4-5 pitches or so.
Usually the pitching coach is standing by the pitcher at the mound, and they have him pitch as though it were a game, working on his delivery in different situations, kind of a pretend game. They even take time off “between innings” to rest, which is usually just standing around near the batting cage for 10 minutes. I watched him pitch one in Glendale in March, although this will probably be more involved.
Torre said they wanted him to go to AZ rather than pitch at Dodger Stadium so he can work on more things in game-like conditions, without having to use (or potentially injure) anyone under consideration for the playoff roster. Maybe in this case Billingsley would actually be pitching in a scrimmage type game instead of a practice game.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be ok with either Thome OR Minky
but since it appears Eye Chart can now play the field again it seems he’d be more useful than a guy who can only PH. Loretta can also play 3rd and 2nd; if he just played 1st I’d even more adamantly want Minky over Loretta,despite the lefty/righty thing. But honestly, I think any 2 of those guys give us some help off the bench.
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
by underdog on Oct 5, 2009 12:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We need a "true" pinch runner for Thome
Pierre won’t be used in that role as he’s the only non-starting OF on the roster. Candidates could include Repko, Hu, or even Dee Gordon (not totally serious here, but it would be fun).
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 12:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They would likely just use a pitcher, even with the risk, or maybe Castro depending on the point in the game. It’s a concern, no question.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing it'd be Castro
can you imagine the outcry if Torre used a pitcher and then he ended up getting hurt?!
by sarcastro9 on Oct 5, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dee Gordon isn’t even eligible for the postseason.
by Epic Phail on Oct 5, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is eligible
although it won’t happen. If an eligible player is hurt, he can be replaced by anyone that was in the organization by August 31.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
HA!
then mlb the show ‘09 is full of crap. They say they’ve gotta be on the roster by Sept 1. So if you’re healthy in September, then unhealthy come playoff time you’re fucked.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 5, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about the possiblity of Joe Torre
keeping Doug M. on the roster to play a game at first base? Any reasons for that?
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 5, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
why do that?
I’m looking forward to Road Loney silencing another midwestern ballpark with a 2 out grand slam! :)
by sarcastro9 on Oct 5, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Torre would keep Mientkiewicz to play first base in a double-switch later in the game, but not to start over another LHP in Loney.
Mientkiewicz’s ability to play the field is his strongest argument for making the roster.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well it was more out of a past stat thing
against Carpwright or Pineiro or something. Maybe he had great numbers against one of them. I don’t know, just a shot in the dark really. But yes, I look forward to Loney showing some magic come Wednesday. :)
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 5, 2009 12:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Billy Beane only drew 11 walks in his brief career and had a .246 OBP.
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 12:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't surprise me
Per Moneyball, Beane was the “tools” type guy (as a prospect.) Looked great in a uniform, could play defense, had a great swing, ran fast.
by Michael White on Oct 5, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather see Thome-Doug combo
rather than Loretta.
Loretta has looked his age in the field and is useless as a pinch runner. I felt like I had time to make a sandwich when watching him leg it to 2nd on an easy double Saturday.
But having Wolf-Kersh pinch run for Thome is a bit dodgy, but sometimes you have to take chances.
Thome would probably more likely then come up in the 8th or 9th so they could use Juan or Juan or even Ausmus.
I can see none of the relief pitcher listed as possibles making it and Joe just going with the remaining starters as relievers.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 12:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What remaining starters? Do you mean Weaver? I listed Garland as making it as a reliever.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Garland - Padilla - Bills making the roster
and all the other other relievers listed not making it.
But who knows, I’m sure Joe will use the stats.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't count, Joe needs a spot reliever too
Mota or Elbert?
McDonalds mostly been long relief right? Maybe even “bases loaded” Weaver.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You really on need...
3 starters — max 4, so 12 pitchers max, plus 13 position players
by elsid on Oct 5, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like Torre was leaning toward 11 pitchers / 14 position players.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is what I would do, as well.
For the short series, don’t think you need 12 pitchers. Although, STL is going with 12
by elsid on Oct 5, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Chad/Kensai’s inclusion of DeWitt over Loretta. Better defense, better bat. No veteran presence, but that is something the decision makers value. If Belliard or Blake’s injuries start acting up, do you want Loretta or Castro getting 4 ABs? I didn’t think so.
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 12:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You mean Belliard and Blake
or do you think Belliard is just too bad at third for Joe to play him?
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is not about what we want, but rather what will happen.
Plus, if a player is hurt in the series badly enough for Castro or Loretta to play, there is the option to replace him mid series, but then said player would not be available for the next series.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Dewitt too
But he just didn’t get enough at bats down the stretch to do an about face now.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pierre works as an ambidextrous hitter as well off the bench
in that he’s hit lefties slightly better than righties.
Another reason to go Thome – Doug
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 1:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Memories of Kevin Malone is now working with Rob Neyer and ESPN.
He sold out! :)
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 1:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if
The Dodgers have the best/broadest/most blog coverage of any time. It sure seems like it, although I don’t spend a lot of time looking into other teams’ sites outside of SBNation.
by LA Taco on Oct 5, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is awesome
Memories of Kevin Malone: ESPN
True Blue LA: Yahoo
Sons of Steve Garvey: Yahoo
Dodger Thoughts: LA Times
Crazy.
by Michael White on Oct 5, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
too bad we aren't using the pitcher
with a BAA second only to Broxton… but I know Joe isn’t really a stat guy.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 5, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Joe is a knuckleballer scares the fuck out of me guy.
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what kills me
is that he was totally locked in before that liner. took 5 or 6 pitches to find the zone, but then he had it going on. maybe i’ll catch him in glendale.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 5, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about a surprise start against an AL team in the series
Who has never seen him before. Could steel one that way.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about a surprise start against an AL team in the series
Who has never seen him before. Could steel one that way.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
i dont know exactly how playoff rosters work…
but is it possible to use belliard at 2B at some point??
i know he isnt as good defensively as the Odog
but we need some hitting….
and hes been red hot with us so far….
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 5, 2009 2:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
belly technically subbed for o-dog
in that sat win – so i would think ‘yes’. he’s seemed competent everywhere in the infield AFAIK.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 5, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I liked the Belliard PH
for O-dog when the Dodgers needed a sac fly.
He then proceeded to hit it on the ground, but I liked the idea. In reality, he’s the first RH hitter off the bench.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Padilla
What if we go with Wolf on short rest in game 4 so only need 3 starters? Think we would possibly move Padilla to the pen, drop Garland and go with Minky or DeWitt for another bat?
by CarolinaDodger on Oct 5, 2009 2:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
no, though CK in the 2 and 5 spot has been suggested
and seems reasonable in light of his youth. I think CK could do 1-4 easily, but that kind of baseball is from a manlier time.
by stillnotah8er on Oct 5, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wolf or kershaw would be an interesting game 5 decision
kershaw would be on regular rest, right?
by CarolinaDodger on Oct 5, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wolf only has done it once for his career and has an history of arm problems.
Wolf isn’t a guy you’d do it with.
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Torre has already announced he will use four starters in the first round. He just hasn’t named the other two besides Wolf/Kershaw yet.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm suprised of the consternation people are having with 3 starters vs. 4 starters.
Doesn’t everyone remember what happened with Lowe?
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe starting Wolf on 3 days rest, then pulling him after 5 innings in game 4 is a way to grease the skids out of town so he’d be more likely to decline our offer of arbitration :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wolf would also have to be cheating on his wife with a FSN reporter.
Too bad Lindsey Soto doesn’t work for FSN anymore. :(
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is a possibility of starting Padilla in Game 3 and saving Billingsley for Game 4. I’d rather have Chad up with the season at stake than Padilla. But that’s just me, a non-Bills hater.
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Its just as likely the game is on the line in game 3 over game 4.
You play your best no matter what.
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A team can clinch in game 4 no matter what
That’s why I prefer Chad there.
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if the Dodgers are down 0-2
You want Padilla pitching in that situation?
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
2-0, 0-2 or 1-1, I’d rather Bills in game 3.
by CarolinaDodger on Oct 5, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In that case, Bills
But any other situation, Padilla for Game 3.
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
• GM Ned Colletti has been in talks with the Dodgers regarding a multiyear deal. Colletti currently has a mutual option for 2010, but it is believed that a couple years may be added to his contract if it can be worked out.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/10/05/hirings.firings/index.html#ixzz0T6DCHIZ8
Get a free NFL Team Jacket and Tee with SI Subscription
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 2:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
• The Dodgers were said to be somewhat disappointed in James Loney’s power production this year.
• There are some in that organization who are quite disappointed in Chad Billingsley, as well. Billingsley may get a start in the division series, but some Dodgers people would rather go with Jon Garland and even Vicente Padilla.
Those Dodgers people wear coke glasses and have black souls.
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some Dodgers people?
Unless that Dodgers person is Joe Torre, it really doesn’t matter if they think Padilla is better than Billingsley.
I’m guessing the Dodger person is Bowa.
by Michael White on Oct 5, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, Bowa's many things but he's not dumb enough to not know the difference between Garland and Bill's stuff.
I figure its some dumb Dodgers exec that has no business speaking on personnel decision.
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
id still put bills for game 3 then padilla game 4
bills when hes going can be a solid pitcher for 5 innings
and in my opinion much better than padilla in that stretch
in the 6th though he completely burns out
remember that game at busch stadium this year
he was dealing through 5 innings and completely imploded in the 6th
which is why we should let our bullpen take over in the 6th even if hes cruising…
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 5, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems that
even when Bills isn’t pitching well he is still effective for 5 innings. It was ealier in the year when he was solid that he was pitching deeper into games, but everybody now gets bent out of shape because he can’t get out of the 6th.
by Michael White on Oct 5, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that could be unexpected
You would not expect them to be thrilled with Billingsley’s performance. Again, it is a Torre and Honeycutt decision so I don’t think what these “people” think matters.
by bhsportsguy on Oct 5, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am surprised why fans get upset about these things
Front offices are not there to blindly support everyone and really, what if the question went like this:
Reporter: So how does the organization feel about Billingsley’s year?
Dodgers: Well, he had a great start, was doing everything we wanted but then hit a rut, no one, including Chad, has been able to pinpoint the problem, so its been a disappointing second half for him and us.
Reporter: Is Chad locked in to start a playoff game?
Dodgers: He’s in the mix, he’ll be considered along with Garland and Padilla, had Kuroda been available, it may have come down to what the situation was by Game 4, now it seems that two of those three will start 3 and 4, if necessary but right now, there is nothing definitive.
by bhsportsguy on Oct 5, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great, that sounds better. But that is not what was reported.
This is what was actually reported.
some Dodgers people would rather go with Jon Garland and even Vicente Padilla.
As a fan I get upset because the idea of starting Garland/Padilla over Billingsley is frustratingly stupid.
We can only react to what actually gets reported.
by Michael White on Oct 5, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how it is a frustratingly stupid to weigh your options?
I don’t think just blindly saying Billingsley should pitch is how a management team should work.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 5, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not weighing your options
People in the organization believe that Garland and Padilla are better options then Billingsley. That is stupid. These are people who make decisions for my favorite baseball team. That is frustrating.
Not sure I get what your saying about management functions. So in order to run effectively you need different people taking different perspectives? Do you think there are people in the organization arguing that Padilla should start ahead of Kershaw? Who knows, maybe there are, but that doesn’t make the management team any more efficient, it means there is an idiot is voicing an opinion. People don’t need to argue every decision in order for it to be a good decision.
And what about this is blindly saying Billingsley should pitch? I don’t get what you mean by blindly. The decision is based on observing the pitchers and determining who is best suited to pitch. Not sure what is blind about that. They aren’t picking names out of a hat.
by Michael White on Oct 5, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point is that
with Kershaw and Wolf, you have a fairly predictable outcome to their performance. With Billingsley, Padilla and Garland it seems less predictable. My guess is that Torre and his staff get together and bounce different scenarios around and different numbers. Torre and Honeycutt being at the top of the pitching staff decisions, they would make the final decision. I think inevitably, they will pick Billingsley because they know him better than Garland or Padilla, and he probably is the best decision statistically. But I don’t think it is just a decision that is simple and they are not stupid for pondering the best case for their ball club to win.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 5, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Without direct quotes
Its hard to know exactly what people think. Apparently what some think is that for the next week or so, they would rather go with someone else. That by itself is not an admission that they think that Garland or Padilla are better, its just that they probably feel they know what to expect from the first two and have no idea what Chad would do. Again my scenario is one how I think these things get reported out especially when they are no named sources nor any direct quotes. Its mostly based on a taking a conversation and then generalizing it.
by bhsportsguy on Oct 5, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And maybe we should get upset about what actually happens
Since there has been no announcement yet for starters beyond Game 2 (for both teams), we’ll certainly know more come Wed. morning when the rosters get announced.
by bhsportsguy on Oct 5, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
my rotation:
Wolf
Kershaw
Bills
Padilla
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 5, 2009 2:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
From Baseball Think Factory
The Red Sox cheat because they draw the Angels every year.
OR
171. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 05, 2009 at 05:33 PM (#3341026)
I ran a quick log5 thingy for the playoff series. I only based it on various measures of full season team quality, so it doesn’t account for changes in roster or the altered schedule, but it should be a fun little baseline to work from.The three measures are actual winning percentage, Pyth winning percentage, and BP’s 3rd order winning percentage. The chance of winning the divisional series is listed for the home club.
Road Team / Home Team: WP, PWP, 3WP
Red Sox / Angels: .540, .497, .473
Tigers / Yankees: .709, .692, .763
Twins / Yankees: .709, .635, .721Rockies / Phillies: .528, .470, .469
Cardinals/ Dodgers: .563, .620, .665The Yankees are huge favorites. The Rockies probably are underrated – or at least, I was underrating them.
Yay! Math loves the Dodgers in this series!
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 2:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We have the better staff, but they have the better two starters
In theory this helps the Cards more in the post-season, but I’m with you, if you are going to base it on numbers you have to give us the advantage, or at least start there and start trying to correct for the postseason.
In reality there are no real numbers in the regular season that translate to the post season.
There’s just ESPN’s predictions, that’s part of the fun.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Math loved the Cubs last year
Math basically hates anyone who overachieved their Pyth record.
by bhsportsguy on Oct 5, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is NOT us this year. We underachieved by 5 games.
Don’t forget, Tony “I had Mark McGwire bunt in the bottom of the 9th of a tied ALCS game” LaRussa is calling the shots for the redbirds.
by Seanny Rotten on Oct 5, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
its good when math agrees with us...
believe it or not math did agree with us last year despite most picking the cubs to advance…
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2008/news/story?id=3620618
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 5, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Game 1: Wolf
Game 2: Kershaw
Game 3: Billingsley
Game 4: Kershaw (3 days’ rest)
Game 5: Wolf
Solid. The young lefty can bounce back.
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 2:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know how old he is
Still don’t think he needs to be babied as much. His arm is capable of bouncing back.
It’s a moot point anyway. Sunday’s game would be only 2 days’ rest. My mistake.
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't stick with a ridge and set gameplan with Kershaw's arm and then suddenly throw out all the rules for it for the post season.
He’s already set to pitch 200+ innings if the Dodgers go all the way. No reason to abuse it further.
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Is the Twins/Tigers game on any national TV network?
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
TBS
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Oct 5, 2009 3:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Here is the best ineup against St. Louis
If the fate of the world dended on a Dodger win and damn the consequences:
Game 1: Kershaw
Game 2: Wolf
Game 3: Padingsley
Game 4: Kershaw (3 days’ rest) (Garland)
Game 5: Wolf
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 3:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Kershaw is not pitching Game 4.
It would only be 2 days’ rest for him.
by silverwidow on Oct 5, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kersh would have pitched Friday and Wolf Saturday and Started Game 1
Its already too late, and I’m with Joe that you don’t blow Kersh’s arm out when you have alternatives, but this would probably mathematically translate to the highest % chance.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 5, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm really, really hoping
Chad gets a start and kicks ass. We all know he can do it, but it sure would be great to see it happen.
by LA Taco on Oct 5, 2009 3:13 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That would be ideal. Then I would like Chad to beat the Phillies twice in the NLCS (no offense, Rockies) too.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Getting work done today and tomorrow in anticipation of an unproductive two days.
by Eric Stephen on Oct 5, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Thursday’s looking like a “work from home day” for me.
by KellyStephen on Oct 5, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Charlie (Bored at work)
If the Dodgers fail to advance in the first round, what do they need to address in the offseason?
Buster Olney
(1:49 PM)
charlie: They need to figure out Billingsley. A bunch of guys with other teams don’t think he can last very long because of the violence in his delivery. If the Dodgers privately feel the same way, well, they need to go out and get a legit No. 1 or No. 2 starter (Maybe Halladay goes there…)
Wonder if the questions about his mechanics came before this year, or after he was struggling.
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 5:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand your love-affair with FIP
I’ll use it, but it’s certainly not a great measure of a pitcher alone. I’d throw in ERA, K/BB ratio, hits per 9 innings, etc. before getting to FIP.
"Who would win: Coach Ditka versus a hurricane? The name of the hurricane is Hurricane Ditka"
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Oct 5, 2009 5:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You realize K's and BB's are factored into FIP right?
The argument for FIP is precisely to isolate the pitchers contributions. ERA and hits per 9 innings are influenced by the defenses behind them.
Your turn, tell me why FIP is “certainly not a great measure of a pitcher alone.”
by Michael White on Oct 5, 2009 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It just leaves out too much for me
It’s one thing if the pitcher is on a crappy defensive team. But I just don’t like the idea of removing base hits that aren’t home runs from measuring a pitcher’s worth. That’s all.
"Who would win: Coach Ditka versus a hurricane? The name of the hurricane is Hurricane Ditka"
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Oct 5, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
roster
first—doug over loretta—loretta cant hit-and thome does have power potential—-second-pitching-4 starters——wolf-kershaw-billingsly-padilla—-broxton-sherell-kuo—garland & weaver-and maybe mcdonald-after that I wouldnt even use any of the other pitchers unless it was a blow-out
by spc7@verizon.net on Oct 5, 2009 5:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ST. LOUIS (AP)—Troy Glaus(notes) will be on the St. Louis Cardinals’ roster for their first-round playoff series against the Los Angeles Dodgers despite missing most of the season while rehabbing from shoulder surgery.
After a two-hour workout Monday that stressed fundamentals, manager Tony La Russa said Glaus showed him enough in the last few weeks to think he could be helpful off the bench. But the manager said Mark DeRosa(notes) will be his starting third baseman.
Glaus hit .172 with two RBIs in 29 at-bats in 14 games, with two doubles and two RBIs.
Infielder Khalil Greene(notes), twice sidelined by social anxiety disorder and limited to 18 at-bats after August, is not on the roster. Greene batted .200 with six homers and 24 RBIs and lost his job after Brendan Ryan(notes) emerged at shortstop during his absence.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-cardinalsroster&prov=ap&type=lgns
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 6:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
who won the manny ramirez STATS contest? i think i am close to winning but lost in a very close race
by matthewmafa on Oct 5, 2009 7:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My spread sheet is at work
I forgot all about it.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 5, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
From Keith Law
Law has scouting info on all the post season teams, but I won’t post all of the Dodgers stuff since its huge.
The Dodgers’ rotation could also be a strength, although they’re heading into the postseason in slightly worse shape than the talent on the roster would indicate. The Dodgers led the NL in ERA this year and their starters were second in the league. Their ace, 21-year-old Clayton Kershaw, has become one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League with a plus fastball (94-96 mph), plus curveball, a solid-average or better changeup, and a hard slurve that gives hitters — especially lefties — one more thing to worry about when facing the left-hander. For raw stuff, he’s top-5 among starters in the league, and that might still shortchange him, but he is still coming back from a fluky injury to his non-throwing shoulder and has maxed out at 104 pitches as he ramps back up. If he’s 100 percent, he lines up well with any No. 1 starter he’s going to face in the postseason.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2009/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4530702
by Tripon on Oct 5, 2009 8:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't know he developed a slurve.
That’s good to know.
"Who would win: Coach Ditka versus a hurricane? The name of the hurricane is Hurricane Ditka"
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Oct 5, 2009 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
im never going to listen to this guys scouting reports ever again
average or better change up ? for clayton kershaw?? HAH he hasnt thrown a changeup in his last 10 starts..
by matthewmafa on Oct 5, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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