And in case you haven't already seen it, the win probability chart for game 2 is worth a look.
The Dodgers lowest win probability in the game came with two outs and nobody down in the 9th inning with the Dodgers down 2-1 and James Loney at the plate. At that point they had merely a 4.1% chance of being the victors, but that's why they play the games!
Surprisingly the biggest swing in win probability didn't come on Mark Loretta's game-winning hit (although the jump from 65.2% to 100% is huge for one play). The biggest swing came earlier in the inning when Ronnie Belliard stroked the single to center to tie the score 2-2. Before the at bat the Dodgers had only a 15.9% chance of winning but after the single that number jumped to 60.5%.
Belliard also led the team with .363 win probability added but Loretta was right behind him with .348 WPA.
about 1 month ago
Brendan Scolari
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Thanks Brendan
love these charts when big moments happen.
by meercatjohn on Oct 9, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Look at that chart again.
It’s really a seismographic chart. The small quake that caused the ground to move from under Holliday, leading to the missed catch. Then the big one, registering as a Mark Loretta on the Richter scale.
by Dr. Geek on Oct 9, 2009 4:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Holiday’s balls and Blake’s walk barely show up on there.
Just shows how improbable those sequence of events were with each being dependent on the other.
by Dodger Dude on Oct 9, 2009 4:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
gotta love that big spike up at the end
Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....
by shaqfor3 on Oct 9, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
these charts don't do it justice
since these graphs are discrete instead of continuous (maybe that’ll be the next step- who knows?), we don’t see just how low the odds REALLY got for the Dodgers to win it, from the time the ball left Loney’s bat to the time it hit Holliday in the “stomach”. Now THAT’S the percentage I want to see!
by sarcastro9 on Oct 9, 2009 6:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Obviously that would make them much lower.
by Brendan Scolari on Oct 9, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eagerly awaiting the next stillnotah8er A-Rod comment
by Eric Stephen on Oct 9, 2009 6:35 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Is it like having a Christina Hendricks obession?
by Tripon on Oct 9, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nowhere nearly as rewarding.
Also, A-Rod’s mountains are on his back :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 9, 2009 6:52 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, Joe Nathan is as big a goat as Holliday is.
by Tripon on Oct 9, 2009 7:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That pickoff throw was DeRosan :)
by Eric Stephen on Oct 9, 2009 7:06 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Oh wow, Ump missed a sure double call near the foul line for Mauer.
by Tripon on Oct 9, 2009 7:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not even close, how can you blow that
when you are 10 feet away?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Oct 9, 2009 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phil Cuzzi looks like Angel Hernandez
by Eric Stephen on Oct 9, 2009 7:17 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
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