And in case you haven't already seen it, the win probability chart for game 2 is worth a look....

And in case you haven't already seen it, the win probability chart for game 2 is worth a look.

The Dodgers lowest win probability in the game came with two outs and nobody down in the 9th inning with the Dodgers down 2-1 and James Loney at the plate. At that point they had merely a 4.1% chance of being the victors, but that's why they play the games!

Surprisingly the biggest swing in win probability didn't come on Mark Loretta's game-winning hit (although the jump from 65.2% to 100% is huge for one play). The biggest swing came earlier in the inning when Ronnie Belliard stroked the single to center to tie the score 2-2. Before the at bat the Dodgers had only a 15.9% chance of winning but after the single that number jumped to 60.5%.

Belliard also led the team with .363 win probability added but Loretta was right behind him with .348 WPA.

over 2 years ago Brendan Scolari 22 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Thanks Brendan

love these charts when big moments happen.

by meercatjohn on Oct 9, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions

Look at that chart again.

It’s really a seismographic chart. The small quake that caused the ground to move from under Holliday, leading to the missed catch. Then the big one, registering as a Mark Loretta on the Richter scale.

by Dr. Geek on Oct 9, 2009 4:39 PM PDT reply actions

Wow

Holiday’s balls and Blake’s walk barely show up on there.

Just shows how improbable those sequence of events were with each being dependent on the other.

by Dodger Dude on Oct 9, 2009 4:58 PM PDT reply actions

gotta love that big spike up at the end

Because when I think of Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of Romanticism....

by shaqfor3 on Oct 9, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions

Stock Market should take notes.

by PHAT JULIO on Oct 9, 2009 6:11 PM PDT reply actions

these charts don't do it justice

since these graphs are discrete instead of continuous (maybe that’ll be the next step- who knows?), we don’t see just how low the odds REALLY got for the Dodgers to win it, from the time the ball left Loney’s bat to the time it hit Holliday in the “stomach”. Now THAT’S the percentage I want to see!

by sarcastro9 on Oct 9, 2009 6:29 PM PDT reply actions

Yep

Obviously that would make them much lower.

by Brendan Scolari on Oct 9, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Eagerly awaiting the next stillnotah8er A-Rod comment

by Eric Stephen on Oct 9, 2009 6:35 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

Also, A-Rod’s mountains are on his back :)

by Eric Stephen on Oct 9, 2009 6:52 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Well

He is a choke right? ;)

by Brendan Scolari on Oct 9, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Wow, Joe Nathan is as big a goat as Holliday is.

by Tripon on Oct 9, 2009 7:04 PM PDT reply actions

That pickoff throw was DeRosan :)

by Eric Stephen on Oct 9, 2009 7:06 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 9, 2009 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Phil Cuzzi looks like Angel Hernandez

by Eric Stephen on Oct 9, 2009 7:17 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Dodger Blogger Softball Tourney Update

by Phil Gurnee 3 days ago

45 comments | 7 recs

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos	No	Player	2012 Salary
C	17	Ellis	$500,000	team control
1B	7	Loney	$6,375,000
2B	14	Ellis	$2,500,000
3B	5	Uribe	$8,000,000
SS	9	Gordon	$485,000	team control
LF	21	Rivera	$4,000,000
CF	27	Kemp	$10,000,000
RF	16	Ethier	$10,950,000

IF/OF	6	Hairston	$2,250,000
OF	10	Gwynn	$850,000
2B/3B	3	Kennedy	$800,000
C	18	Treanor	$850,000
IF	12	Sellers	$485,000	team control

SP	22	Kershaw	$6,000,000
SP	58	Billingsley	$9,000,000
SP	29	Lilly	$12,000,000
SP	35	Capuano	$3,000,000
SP	44	Harang	$3,000,000

CL	54	Guerra	$485,000	team control
RHP	74	Jansen	$500,000	team control
RHP	55	Guerrier	$4,750,000
RHP	60	Coffey	$1,000,000
RHP	66	MacDougal	$650,000
LHP	57	Elbert	$485,000	team control
RHP	36	Hawksworth	$500,000	team control

TJ	41	De La Rosa	$485,000	team control

		Manny	$8,087,432	deferred
		Andruw	$3,375,000	deferred
		Pierre	$3,050,000	deferred
		Furcal	$3,000,000	deferred
		Kuroda	$2,000,000	deferred
		Garland	$1,500,000	option buyout
		Blake	$1,250,000	option buyout

Totals			$112,162,432
For more detailed information, click here.
Players on 40-man roster used as roster fillers until moves are made. Current 40-man roster count: 40 (not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No	Player	Age*
63	Jose Ascanio rhp	27
61	Alberto Castillo lhp	36
56	Matt Chico lhp	29
33	John Grabow lhp	33
59	Angel Guzman rhp	30
47	Wil Ledezma lhp	31
72	Shane Lindsay rhp	27
62	Fernando Nieve rhp	29
73	Scott Rice lhp	30
70	Will Savage rhp	27
71	Ryan Tucker rhp	25
28	Jamey Wright rhp	37

30	Josh Bard c	34
82	Griff Erickson c	24
81	Matt Wallachc	26
67	Jeff Baisley 3b/1b	29
65	Luis Cruz ss/2b	28
37	Josh Fields 3b	29
64	Lance Zawadzki if	27
56	Cory Sullivan of	32

*Age on June 30, 2012
NRI count: 20 For more info, click here.

Network Bar

True Blue LA -

Comments

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Secondary Sidebar

Search

User Tools

FanPosts

Recommended FanPosts

Recent FanPosts

Recent Posts

2012 Dodgers Payroll

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

In Association With

Baseball Nation Recent Stories

Vox Media Hot Topics

Community Masthead

Manager

Editors