There is Gold Glove and then there is the Fielding Bible
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 10, 2009 11:32 PM PST
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PrintMajor League baseball announced their Gold Glove winners today, below is the summary:
2009 AL Gold Glove winners
| Position | Player | Team |
|---|---|---|
| C | Joe Mauer | Twins |
| 1B | Mark Teixeira | Yankees |
| 2B | Placido Polanco | Tigers |
| 3B | Evan Longoria | Rays |
| SS | Derek Jeter | Yankees |
| OF | Torii Hunter | Angels |
| OF | Adam Jones | Orioles |
| OF | Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners |
| P | Mark Buehrle | White Sox |
The major league GG winners always seem to be won by players who can hit. I have pretty much ignored the Major League Gold Glove winners ever since I figured out they were basically a farce, like the time Rafael Palmeiro won the award even though he only played 28 games at 1st base. The award is based on peer vote but it has been obvious forever that not much thought goes into the vote.
One of the welcome sights of the Bill James Handbook are the John Dewan 2010 Fielding Bible awards. Unlike MLB, Dewan does not distinguish between the leagues. How the winners are decided are detailed in the book. Every baseball fan of statistics should buy the book. Everyone.
| Pos | Player |
| 1st | Pujols |
| 2nd | Aaron Hill |
| SS | Jack Wilson |
| 3rd | Ryan Zimmerman |
| C | Yadier Molina |
| RF | Ichiro Suzuki |
| CF | Franklin Guiterrez |
| LF | Carl Crawford |
| Pitcher | Mark Buehrle |
How did the Dodgers do?
James Loney - 9th place with 23 points, highest ranking was 7th.
Orlando Hudson - 5th place with 47 points, highest ranking was 1st place
Rafael Furcal - Not in top 10 and received only five points.
Casey Blake - 10th place with 11 points, highest ranking was 6th
Russell Martin - 4th place with 55 points, highest ranking was 3rd (4 times)
Manny Ramirez - 0 points
Matt Kemp - Not in top 10, received only 12 points
Andre - 0 points
To put it mildly, the panel of 10 judges were quite unimpressed with the Dodger outfield defense. However this is a subjective panel. How about the objective Plus/Minus system? Only the top ten for each position are listed in the Bill James book. For the complete list you'd need to buy the 2009 Fielding Bible. They use two different approaches. The Defensive Runs Saved (combines Plus/Minus, bunts, double plays, outfield arms, catchers' earned runs, cathers' stolen bases allowed, pitchers' stolen bases allowed, and home run saving catches)
James Loney - Plus 3, 9th place
Orlando Hudson - Not in top 10
Rafael Furcal - Plus 8, 9th place
Casey Blake - Plus 8, 9th place
Martin - Plus 5, 5th place
Manny - Minus 7,Fifth Worse
Matt Kemp - Not in top 10
Andre - Not in top 10
Now lets take a look at Plus/Minus
The Plus/Minus system is a way to evaluate defensive range by measuring how often defenders turn grounders and fly balls into outs.
James Loney - Plus 4, 10th Place
Orlando Hudson - Not in top 10
Rafael Hudson - Not in top 10
Casey Blake - Plus 8, 9th Place
Manny - Not in top 10
Kemp - Not in top 10 - Adam Jones winner of the Gold Glove was a Minus 20
Andre - Not in top 10
Worse Plus/Minus in 2009
1st - Adam Dunn Minus 24 and Nick Johnson -14 (Man the Nat's were bad)
2nd - Alberto Callaspo Minus 19 (No wonder the Royals are trying to trade him for AJ Ellis)
SS - Orlando Cabrera Minus 40
3rd - Mike Lowell Minus 23 (Not long ago he was a plus fielder)
LF - Ryan Braun Minus 31
CF - Vernon Wells Minus 30 (doing everything he can to make his contract the worse in baseball)
RF - Jermaine Dye Minus 28
Other simple notes. Watching Brendan Ryan this year we thought he was a hell of a SS and the Plus/Minus supports that theory as he was Plus 24 good for 2nd.
I'm sure all of us are disappointed that Matt Kemp did not show better as we felt he was playing incredible defense all year. Does this mean we lose our faith in the Plus/Minus system or in Matt Kemps abilities to play centerfield in an above average manner?
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Matt Kemp deserves better
I’m sure every other team has their argument into why their position player should deserve the GG award, but come on. Matt Kemp should win the award. He has a positive UZR, 14 assists (leader) , 4 double plays (leader), just 2 errors… I’d be damn disappointed if he got beat out by Nate McClouth, Mike Cameron, Colby Rasmus, or (UGH)Shane Victorino…
MY PICKS FOR CF GG:
Matt Kemp
Nate McClouth
Andrew McCutchen
PICKS THAT I THINK WILL GET THE AWARD:
Shane Victorino
Mike Cameron
Matt Kemp/ Nate McClouth
Missed in all the outstanding plays...
…and huge strides in defense, Matt Kemp wasn’t truly elite, IMO. His reads were still a problem in some aspects, and as far as the system goes, those blunders he tends to have take him down a good lot because it’s compared to average. He was likely solidly above average to good in center field this year.
I wouldn’t read into one year samples for UZR/PM too much anyway. Personally, I just average two or three year (or whenever their performance is stable) samples between the two or three best systems to get the most reasonable take. It’s…arrogant…to just rely on one advanced defensive metric at this point, IMO.
I agree, if only because of work I saw a ton of mariners games this year. Watching guttierez in CF regularly will show you how far Kemp has to go to be the best. Athletically he has all the skill necessary and he made some sensational plays this year. But I think Kensai is right to say he has not fully reached elite status… Yet.
Play of the year in the nl in cf has to be victorino catching a ball at the track in wrigley a second after having a beer poured on his face.
by LA Taco on Nov 11, 2009 4:43 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Right
But comparing anybody to Gutierrez will make that person seem crappy. Metrics or scouting.
I figure Nyjer Morgan deserves the GG in center, but Kemp is somewhere in the top 5 in the NL defensively. Certainly behind Cameron and Morgan, but that’s about it I think.
by Chad Moriyama on Nov 11, 2009 5:43 AM PST up reply actions
if morjan didnt get injured
he would have won the gg for sure…
I just average two or three year (or whenever their performance is stable) samples between the two or three best systems to get the most reasonable take
Given the number of metrics that is the only sensible way to go about it. Here was an interesting rebuttal of sorts of between how UZR and +/- are calculated.
I just like to provide information. I’ll be providing the Win Share breakdown for the season soon and the cumulative totals for every LA Dodger but I’m not going to debate the pros/cons of win shares, but I’ll provide the links of those smarter then me who already had and continue to have that debate.
Yeah
i’ve read that before.
It sorta irks me how MGL is so defensive of UZR and alludes to it as if it was as reliable as wOBA or something. I mean, I understand, but I thought the whole point of sabermetrics was to find the truth, not be a hard ass about shit you invent. That’s how we got this divide (traditionalist/statistics) in the first place, after all.
by Chad Moriyama on Nov 11, 2009 8:40 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Gold gloves are voted on by managers and coaches
by Eric Stephen on Nov 11, 2009 2:44 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Gold Gloves should not be thought of as a defensive award, they should be seen as who are the guys who coaches feel deserve an award for the way they play the field and who they are as teammates. it has nothing to do with metrics but the feeling you get watching or playing with those guys, how they handle themselves, respect of teammates, etc. It also seems to reward people for lifetime achievement and can be a year or two too late. Utley might have a down season at 2b next year but I would bet now that he gets the gg.
by LA Taco on Nov 11, 2009 4:48 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
That makes no sense
Why should Gold Glove voting deviate from the standard purpose?
by Chad Moriyama on Nov 11, 2009 5:41 AM PST up reply actions
And?
Even if you don’t evaluate them with Plus/Minus or UZR, you could evaluate them with scouting or something. That would still be more credible than giving them awards for career achievements or whatever.
by Chad Moriyama on Nov 11, 2009 8:11 AM PST up reply actions
I vehemently disagree
Gold Gloves are in fact defensive awards. If someone is voting based on anything else, they shouldn’t be allowed to vote.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 11, 2009 8:05 AM PST up reply actions
But based on the voting, it would seem that LA Taco is right about what they think goes into a GG because is sure isn’t just defense.
It is what they do but not what they should do
by Eric Stephen on Nov 11, 2009 8:27 AM PST up reply actions
True
but as LA Taco said they are humans and rarely do humans in any scenario choose the right thing to do.
Top 10 CF UZR
1. F.Gutierrez 29.1
2. N.Morgan 27.8
3. R.Sweeney 24.0
4. B.Upton 11.0
5. M.Cameron 10.0
6. C.Rasmus 9.8
7. M.Bourn 8.6
8. N.McLouth 3.6
9. M.Kemp 2.6
10. C.Granderson 1.6
If the Mariners could trade for Carl Crawford they might have the best defensive outfield in history. And quite an interesting trio, African-American/Venezuela/Japanese. Ty Cobb would not have approved.
That would be such a great OF. Jon Garland could put up a 2.50 ERA there :)
by Eric Stephen on Nov 11, 2009 8:51 AM PST up reply actions
We told Ty Cobb to stick it!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 11, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
Kensai broke the news, BTW. Kemp and Hudson win GG (see front page).
I’ll have a story up once it becomes official
Milton Bradley has been traded for Gutierrez and Andre Ethier. Given Gutierrez’s defense you could probably say that he is now the superior player to Milton even though it took a while. I don’t have the book in front of me at work but Milton was also rated as one of the worse right fielders in the game this past season. Signing Milton to play the outfield after all the injuries looked like a brain fart at the time and could easily be the worse FA signing of 2009.
For Sure
Gutierrez is better than Bradley.
Could be better than Ethier, depending on your needs. Not to the Dodgers, but to like the Yankees, probably.
by Chad Moriyama on Nov 11, 2009 8:41 AM PST up reply actions
Remember way back when, I think either just before or just after the Bradley trade, BP said Gutierrez had a chance to hit 500 homers or something, basically calling him the next Juan Gonzalez. It’s funny that his offense was driving his value then and it’s his defense that is so great now.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 11, 2009 8:50 AM PST up reply actions
Don't remember that
but it’s interesting in retrospect. Hahaha.
Touted slugger becomes defensive wizard. :o
by Chad Moriyama on Nov 11, 2009 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
Next thing you know
Kyle Russell will win a Gold Glove in right but hit only 15 homers a year. :o
by Chad Moriyama on Nov 11, 2009 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
or..
next thing we know… kyle russell strikes out in less then 10% of his at bats in the MLB but only hits 5 home runs per year… becoming Juan pierre
Speaking of Kyle Russell
Greg Desme is creating quite a stir in the AFL and he is certainly a comp for Russell with the speed and power and proclivity to strike out. The only difference is that Desme got to play in the Cal League this year while Russell was forced to stay in the MWL. They both had excellent SB ratios. I’ll be watching both of them to see how they progress.
yeah desmes a center fielder too..
his numbers were not so great… Until he got promoted to the offensively driven cal league thoo
Does this mean we lose our faith in the Plus/Minus system
HELL YEAH
or in Matt Kemps abilities to play centerfield in an above average manner?
HELL NO
GOLDEN GLOVES all the way!
These defensive measurements seem completely non-reliable, they did get Dunn as worst in the league, but it was probably by such a wide margin, it was just too easy.
Stats have to be based on empirical evidence or they loose their power. To me subjective statistics will have so much built in error they basically defeat the purpose of statistics.
Unfortunately, defensive statistics based upon actual empirical evidence are about as useful as “rebounds” in the NBA.
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