2010 CHONE Projections Are Out

Last month we looked at the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook.  Now, the second set of projections are in, from Sean Smith of the wonderful blog Anaheim Angels All The Way.  His full list of CHONE projections can be found here.

I added these projections to the previous Bill James projections, and also took a look back to 2009 to see how accurate last year's set of predictions were. The 2009 and 2010 CHONE projections are highlighted below.

I also threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

Infield

Russell Martin
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .292 .390 .439 .829
2009 CHONE .286 .384 .434 .818
2009 actual .250 .352 .329 .680
2009 prOPS .284 .382 .396 .778
2010 Bill James .272 .372 .396 .768
2010 CHONE .273 .364 .407 .771
2010 status arbitration eliglble
 
James Loney
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .295 .351 .443 .794
2009 CHONE .294 .355 .446 .801
2009 actual .281 .357 .399 .756
2009 prOPS .298 .371 .438 .809
2010 Bill James .294 .360 .440 .800
2010 CHONE .292 .354 .444 .798
2010 status arbitration eliglble
 
Orlando Hudson
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .270 .342 .392 .734
2009 CHONE .276 .353 .407 .760
2009 actual .283 .357 .417 .774
2009 prOPS .277 .352 .391 .742
2010 Bill James 
.280 .353 .409 .762
2010 CHONE .270 .342 .395 .737
2010 status Type A free agent
 
Ronnie Belliard
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .266 .331 .405 .736
2009 CHONE .272 .331 .419 .750
2009 actual .277 .325 .451 .776
2009 prOPS .281 .328 .466 .794
2010 Bill James .265 .322 .416 .738
2010 CHONE .256 .313 .404 .717
2010 status Type B free agent
Belliard's stats include time w/Nats
 
Rafael Furcal
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .286 .354 .409 .763
2009 CHONE .284 .358 .412 .770
2009 actual .269 .335 .375 .711
2009 prOPS .278 .343 .388 .730
2010 Bill James .278 .346 .391 .737
2010 CHONE .273 .342 .388 .730
2010 status under contract
 
Casey Blake
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .259 .334 .429 .763
2009 CHONE .259 .336 .439 .775
2009 actual .280 .363 .468 .832
2009 prOPS .287 .372 .473 .845
2010 Bill James .257 .337 .426 .762
2010 CHONE .256 .331 .430 .761
2010 status under contract

Outfield

Manny Ramirez
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .304
.406
.556
.962
2009 CHONE .291 .408 .556 .964
2009 actual .290
.418
.531
.949
2009 prOPS .314
.439
.557
.995
2010 Bill James .296
.406
.537
.943
2010 CHONE .272 .368 .501 .869
2010 status under contract
 
Matt Kemp
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .311
.360
.496
.856
2009 CHONE .299 .353 .476 .829
2009 actual .297
.352
.490
.842
2009 prOPS .279
.335
.478
.813
2010 Bill James .311
.365
.508
.873
2010 CHONE .297 .351 .492 .843
2010 status arbitration eliglble
 
Andre Ethier
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .303
.374
.492
.866
2009 CHONE .292 .366 .468 .834
2009 actual .272
.361
.508
.869
2009 prOPS .292
.378
.520
.898
2010 Bill James .288
.368
.500
.868
2010 CHONE .281 .356 .488 .844
2010 status arbitration eliglble
 
Juan Pierre
Year BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 Bill James .292 .348 .356 .704
2009 CHONE .283 .328 .357 .685
2009 actual .308 .365 .392 .792
2009 prOPS .306 .362 .376 .738
2010 Bill James .291 .342 .355 .697
2010 CHONE .287 .335 .369 .704
2010 status under contract
 

You can get the full list of Dodgers' CHONE projections here.

Looking at the CHONE projections, I thought the mythical battle for fourth outfielder was interesting:

2010 CHONE Projections
4th Outfielder BA OBP SLG OPS
Mitch Jones .228 .306 .435 .741
Hector Luna .261 .324 .408 .732
Xavier Paul .259 .323 .390 .713
Jamie Hoffmann    .255 .328 .379 .707
Juan Pierre .287 .335 .369 .704
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