Jeff Bagwell is to James Loney as Pedro Martinez is to Chad Billingsley?

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:11 PM PST in Research Comment 72 comments

"Dude, we're so alike! Our career similarity score is 934, which is my seventh-best comparison and your tenth-best!" - Matt Kemp on discovering Similarity Scores (AP Photo/Gus Ruelas)

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Before there were such things as CHONE, Pecota, and Bill James' annual projection for players, there was a charming little thing called Similarity Scores, also created by Bill James. If you look at baseball-reference.com, you will find a description of the formula used for similarity scores and a credit to James' book The Politics of Glory; however, I first read about them in The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986, in which he introduced the concept, having worked on it over the past year. This was also the book that introduced me to the term sabermetrics, among other things.

I stumbled across The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986 while looking in a book store for a book that contained all the major league statistics for the 1985 season (no baseball-reference.com in those days), which I needed to prepare for a Strat-O-Matic baseball draft. (I went with a HR friendly ballpark and loaded up on power, defense be damned, and drafted Pedro Guerrero #1 at 3B/1B.) The book was an eye-opener in many ways and made me aware that there were a lot of ways to look at baseball and baseball statistics than just the traditional versions. I wonder if I would have even gravitated toward the baseball blogs that I enjoy so much today had I never crossed paths with James' Abstract. By the way, in the Dodgers chapter, James defends Lasorda's decision to pitch to Jack Clark.

If you didn't read the formula in the link, the brief version is that 1000 is a perfect match between two players. Points are then deducted from there based on differences in position, a bunch of counting statistics (e.g., hits) and a few ratios (e.g., batting average, ERA). Obviously, the higher the number, the better the match.

At baseball-reference.com, they calcluate the similarity scores on each player's page, giving the top-10 career similarities, plus the top-10 at each age of the player's career, near the bottom of the page. For example, if you scroll toward the bottom of ex-Dodger Shawn Green's player page, you'll find that his number one match in career similarity score is ex-Dodger Reggie Smith at 945. This is what similarity scores (using this formula) seem to work best for, evaluating player production over an entire career, which is good for things like Hall of Fame arguments. You'll also see that at age 29, after his last great season (2002), the 29-year old he was most similar to was Dale Murphy with a similarity score of 942.

Similarity scores don't make for a particularly great projection system, because, among other things, the stats used aren't the best for that purpose and the similarities don't account for trends (i.e., improving or not), but I'd bet that Bill James used similarity studies with different stats in play to fine tune his projection system. However, that doesn't stop the age-based similarity score summaries at baseball-reference.com from being a lot of fun to peruse and to compare current players to players throughout baseball history and see how that current player might turn out. This turns out to be a fine time to do such a thing because a) the season is over and the hot stove is still thawing out, and b) baseball-reference.com just updated them all to include the 2009 season data.

After the jump are similarity score summaries for the selected returning Dodger players at their 2009-season age. These show the top ten similar players at the same age - some of the names may surprise you:

UPDATE - corrected lists for Russell Martin, Rafael Furcal, and Casey Blake. The previous lists were incorrect due to a bug regarding position adjustments in the baseball-reference.com software that was present at the time this article was originally written. I left the incorrect tables below as well, just for the curiosity of seeing things like Bobby Grich in Russell Martin's list.

Corrected Tables
Russell Martin, Age 26		Casey Blake, Age 35		Rafael Furcal, Age 31
Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score
Thurman Munson	966	Aaron Boone	938	Craig Biggio	934
Sammy White	956	Melvin Mora	930	Jay Bell	921
Ray Fosse	942	Jim Hickman	911	Tony Fernandez	910
Ed McFarland	941	Dave Hollins	910	Ray Durham	900
Rich Gedman	933	Charlie Maxwell	909	Barry Larkin	895
Yadier Molina	932	Jim Lemon	908	Cristian Guzman	893
Benito Santiago	932	Mel Hall	907	Herman Long	887
Jack Clements	930	Hoot Evers	905	Orlando Cabrera	885
Tim McCarver	926	Jay Payton	903	Lou Whitaker	885
Bob O'Farrell	926	Kevin Millar	902	Frankie Crosetti	885

Original Tables

Russell Martin, Age 26		James Loney, Age 25		Rafael Furcal, Age 31
Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score
Thurman Munson	971	Jeff Bagwell	975	Craig Biggio	944
Felipe Lopez	966	Ted Kluszewski	974	Ray Durham	940
Mike Andrews	963	Alvin Davis	960	Jay Bell	921
Sammy White	962	Joe Hauser	948	Lou Whitaker	920
Ray Durham	960	Babe Young	943	Jason Kendall	920
Lonny Frey	960	Rafael Palmeiro	939	Delino DeShields	916
Gil McDougald	960	George Kelly	939	Chuck Knoblauch	915
Aaron Ward	954	Steve Garvey	939	Brian Roberts	914
Bobby Grich	953	Joe Adcock	936	Tony Fernandez	910
Barry Larkin	951	Adrian Gonzalez	935	Paul Molitor	909

Casey Blake, Age 35		Manny Ramirez, Age 37		Juan Pierre, Age 31
Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score
Aaron Boone	938	Ken Griffey, Jr.	857	Willie Wilson	943
Melvin Mora	930	Jimmie Foxx	849	Clyde Milan	916
Jim Hickman	911	Frank Robinson	840	Max Carey	910
Dave Hollins	910	Rafael Palmeiro	813	Duff Cooley	908
Charlie Maxwell	909	Barry Bonds	812	George Case	904
Jason Varitek	909	Gary Sheffield	811	George Burns	903
Jim Lemon	908	Jim Thome	811	Steve Brodie	896
Mel Hall	907	Jeff Bagwell	810	Ginger Beaumont	892
Hoot Evers	905	Chipper Jones	803	Harry Hooper	884
Jay Payton	903	Willie Mays	800	Mickey Rivers	873

Matt Kemp, Age 24		Andre Ethier, Age 27		Clayton Kershaw, Age 21
Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score
Nick Markakis	971	Richie Zisk	971	Britt Burns	972
Carlos Beltran	961	Bobby Higginson	970	Moe Drabowsky	971
Vernon Wells	960	Sam Chapman	966	John Henry Johnson	971
Enos Slaughter	955	Aubrey Huff	962	Jack Fisher	970
Ellis Burks	954	Jacque Jones	961	Carl Cashion	970
Bobby Bonds	945	Bill Nicholson	959	Ken Holtzman	969
Ellis Valentine	944	Jim Edmonds	957	Norm Baker	968
Rocco Baldelli	944	Jason Giambi	957	Jerry Walker	966
Bug Holliday	941	Larry Doby	953	Dontrelle Willis	966
Andre Dawson	938	Reggie Sanders	951	Mike Witt	965

Chad Billingsley, Age 24		Hiroki Kuroda, Age 34		Jonathan Broxton, Age 25
Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score
Ray Culp	977	Masato Yoshii	966	Doug Bird	961
Pedro Martinez	975	Sig Jakucki	959	Chad Cordero	958
Jake Peavy	973	Walt Dickson	957	Roger McDowell	958
Stan Williams	970	Kenshin Kawakami	950	Huston Street	956
Sid Fernandez	966	Frank Oberlin	949	Victor Cruz	956
Carlos Zambrano	965	Jimmy Zinn	948	Steve Bedrosian	953
Dennis Martinez	965	Lou Tost	946	Antonio Osuna	953
Scott Kazmir	963	Art Delaney	946	Luis DeLeon	953
Dave McNally	961	Bob Keegan	945	Scott Williamson	951
Ramon Martinez	959	Tom Filer	944	Tom Niedenfuer	950

Hong-Chih Kuo, Age 27		George Sherrill, Age 32		Ramon Troncoso, Age 26
Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score	Similar Player	Similarity Score
Hank Aguirre	982	Ricardo Rincon	967	Scott Sullivan	988
Rich Folkers	981	Pedro Feliciano	962	Jack Wisner	985
Gene Walter	978	Rich Rodriguez	960	Gary Wagner	984
Juan Agosto	977	Tony Castillo	956	Roy Thomas	984
Dick Kelley	976	Steve Frey	950	Jack Billingham	984
Greg Cadaret	975	Kerry Ligtenberg	949	Brandon Medders	982
Rafael Perez	975	Graeme Lloyd	949	Bobby Locke	982
Ken Frailing	975	Tom Hilgendorf	946	Hersh Freeman	981
Pedro Martinez	975	Mike James	943	George Frazier	981
Dave Leiper	974	Jim Hughes	942	Toby Borland	981

Did I acknowledge baseball-reference.com enough?

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Comments

Yikes

so we can predict that Matt Kemp will make a lot of money and never accomplish all that much?!

by bearface on Nov 18, 2009 5:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I can easily see Wells being the comp at that age. That was Vernon’s peak year and until he signed the deal was considered on of the best young centerfielders in the game.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 18, 2009 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I Know - that's what scares me.

I hope we can manage to keep Kemp without paying him so much that it jinxes him (ala Zito, Schmidt, Pavano, Wells etc.)

by bearface on Nov 18, 2009 5:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I've always been worried about the Ellis Valentine

comp because whenever I run numbers for Kemp based on age Valentine always shows up. Big guy, good arms, good speed, good but not great power, lousy plate discipline. Some solid years years, considered on of best young outfielders in the game, then injuries, then oblivion in very short order.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 18, 2009 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn’t Valentine have one really significant injury that took at lot out of him after that – like a beaning? He and Dawson – also on Kemp’s list – were supposed to be 2/3 of a great OF for Montreal.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't remember the beaning

but he significant knee problems. I think.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 18, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I remember the knees. Didn’t that kill all Montreal OFs except for Raines?

Valentine took one in the face on May 30, 1980. He missed two months, tore it up the rest of the season, but his rapid decline started the next year. Check out the modified helmet he wore!

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I hope all of his striking out this postseason

is an abberration of wanting to do too much and not a trend that will continue.

by Ian Capilouto on Nov 19, 2009 8:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

This is really cool. I’m interested in seeing how some of the leagues biggest stars show up on here… specifically the young and upcoming (H. Ramirez, Mauer, King Felix etc.) and the insanely paid superstars (Jeter, A-Rod, Tex etc.)

by bearface on Nov 18, 2009 5:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It is fun to look up players on baseball-reference.com to see those comparisons.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah. i've used b-r a million times but never paid attention to that function. pretty awesome.

by bearface on Nov 18, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff Bagwell?

I just don’t see it, though if Loney has an OPS of 1.201 next season, I’ll be very pleasantly surprised.

by Humma Kavula on Nov 18, 2009 5:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

By the age of 26

Bags had measly home run totals of 15, 18, and 20.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bagweje01.shtml

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 18, 2009 5:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

As I noted, this is of limited use for projections. One of the big problem with the Bagwell / Loney comparison is that Bagwell was generally trending up through age 25, while Loney started hot and has dropped.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with what you wrote on DT. I would also be very happy for him to turn into Mark Grace. Or pre-roids Palmeiro.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So little data

has Clayton with few favorable comps but Chad is littered with some names I’d love for him to follow.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 18, 2009 5:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Fun that Chad has both Pedro and Ramon on his list.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I was surprised to see Pedro Martinez at 975 for age 25 compared to Chad, but flabbergasted to see him at 975, age 27 for Kuo, until I realized that Kuo’s comp is the other Pedro Martinez!

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Juan Pierre is the only guy with no active players on his list. I’d guess he had the most dead-ball era guys too.
Jason Kendall shows up, but on Furcal’s list, not Martin’s.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I don't get that

shouldn’t the players at least be catchers on Martins list?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 18, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You deduct the differences between these values for the position adjustment

240 – Catcher
168 – Shortstop
132 – Second Base
84 – Third Base
48 – Outfield
12 – First Base
0 – DH

Hmmm. That seems like a 112 point deduction when comparing catchers to 2Bs, which should mean that no 2B could be better than 888 to a catcher.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 5:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

“That seems like a 112 point deduction when comparing catchers to 2Bs”

108. (Not much difference, to be sure. Just pedantry.)

by berkowit28 on Nov 18, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Likely an apocryphal story, but when Winston Churchill was criticized for ending a sentence with a preposition he retorted, “That is the sort of errant pedantry up with which I will not put.”

(I add the 2 in my head instead of subtracting, oops!)

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 19, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

just goes to show

what an unusual type of player Juan Pierre is for our era, which is probably at least in part why he’s so polarizing!

by sarcastro9 on Nov 18, 2009 7:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I also didn’t know there was a Babe Young! Unfortunately mostly for the Giants. Looks like he was a decent hitter whose career was derailed by WW II – he didn’t play in ‘43-’45.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 7:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Guo & Pedro Martinez

by Xeifrank on Nov 18, 2009 7:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

The other Pedro Martinez.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 18, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There’s more than one?
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 18, 2009 7:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The other Pedro was a journeyman reliever who had a couple decent seasons for the Padres, then had everything fall apart. He was out of the majors completely by ’97.

by EMDarrow on Nov 18, 2009 8:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I only believe his comparisons if they had four TJ surgeries. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 18, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fuck it, we should convert Guo to starter in 2010.

Kershaw
Bills
Guo
Elbert
McDonald

FARM SYSTEM!!!

by silverwidow on Nov 18, 2009 9:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Ok. Take a deep breath and regroup….

by delias man on Nov 18, 2009 10:48 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Read it again this morning..

And this was good. I have not looked at the updated comps on BBREF this year. I always tend to look to the optimistic side for these kids. Kemp=Dawson would by my dream. If Loney turns into just about anybody on that list it would be great too. Also never thought about Chad and Zambrano. I can see similarities in them now.

by delias man on Nov 19, 2009 7:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff Dave

The title is excellent, too.

That Manny list is amazing, which is understandable, and of course the fact that the highest similarity score is 857 (Junior) makes Manny even more unique in baseball history.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 8:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

When you get to obvious HOFers – if you only look at stats, Manny and everyone on his list are clearly HOFers – the similarities scores start dropping fast; that’s why they’re obvious HOFers!

As an aside, the similarity scores would be a little different if B-R was able to include the position deduction for CFs instead of treating them all as OFs, but that data doesn’t exist for all eras. That would shuffle up Matt Kemp’s list if he were considered a CF. I suspect some other CFs bubble up into the top-10, but his current list would reorder something like, based on my estimate of of 44 points for the deduction between CF and other OFs:

Carlos Beltran (961)
Vernon Wells (960)
Ellis Burks (954)
Bobby Bonds (945)
Rocco Baldelli (944)
Bug Holliday (941)
Andre Dawson (938)
Nick Markakis (927)
Enos Slaughter (911)
Ellis Valentine (900)

[Bug Holliday – great name – is an 1800s player; your guess is as good as mine if he was a CF or not. If he wasn’t, his 897 moves him to the bottom of the list. Hoot Evers is also a great name, as is Ginger Beaumont.]

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 19, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Trayvon Robinson and Kenley Jansen will be added to the 40-man, per Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Still awaiting the rest of the list, but I’ll have a story up soon.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 9:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

DeJesus???

I hope that’s not the complete list.

by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 9:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not

Goldstein just happened to comment on both Robinson and Jansen on Twitter

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

so far Goldstein has only heard of those two, but that makes sense because he is covering the AFL and those two are in AZ playing right now.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There could always be a chance that DeJesus’ missed year could allow him immunity from the Rule V. Don’t know if that’s in the rulebook however.

by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Secondly, if we’re not protecting Guerra, I have no problem with that. He showed absolutely horrible command in the AFL appearace I watched. He’d be a dead roster spot on a major league team right now.

by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No such thing

he will have to be added to be protected from the Rule 5 draft

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Jim Callis

covered this in a chat yesterday:

Kevin: Hey Jim, does Jake McGee have to be protected in this off-season’s Rule 5 draft, or does the injury exempt him? Thanks!

Jim Callis: He’ll need to be protected, the injury has nothing to do with Rule 5 status

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, thanks. So he’s a lock for tomorrow then.

by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh oh

Three way trade brewing (according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today) between Seattle, Detroit and a “mystery team.” The principals are Brandon Morrow and Edwin Jackson.

I have a hunch we’re the other team, with Jackson headed our way.

by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 9:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I have a hunch it is just a rumor

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nightengale is a strong source though. Way better than Rosenthal, Heyman, et al.

by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 9:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Way better?

Maybe slightly better. I’d just as soon trust this Nightengale at this point though ;-)

(His Jackson rumor definitely piques my interest but his other one today about Halladay vis a vis Billingsley irked me…)

The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".

by underdog on Nov 19, 2009 10:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Heyman

congrats to nl cy young winner tim lincecum (via comcast). #giants

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Back-to-back Cy's

How’s that for a Super-Two case? :)

by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Recordbreaking....

by delias man on Nov 19, 2009 10:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If he goes to arb, he could easily get $6.5-7m. Current record for Super Two pitcher is $4.35m (Hamels and Dontrelle)

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Who else is hoping for Ryan Howard money for Timmy?

by StolenMonkey86 on Nov 19, 2009 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

KNBR

was ecstatic today at this news, but the downside is the money Timmy is going to make is really going to hamper the Giants payroll flexibility. Thanks to some terrible contracts, any raise to Lincecum pretty much prevents them from going after any names on the FA market, hence why they’re already bowing out of the Bay/Holliday sweepstakes.

This is important because they’re getting a lot of heat up here to get some bats to make a legitimate run and it was highly expected for them to take a stab at Bay, at the very least. Look for the natives to be very restless up here, which just warms the cockles of my heart.

Enjoy the individual awards, Giants fans, that’s all you get these days.

by Capt Obvious on Nov 20, 2009 12:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The only reason I don't think

he will get $10m, like Howard, is because he doesn’t quite have the same level of service time as Howard, who had three full years when he set the record at $10m.

Lincecum could probably win a $7m arb case, especially if the owners hire Tal Smith again as their representative.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 20, 2009 8:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why uh oh?

The rumor last week was Sherril for Jackson. Something like that is a huge win for the Dodgers.

by Michael White on Nov 19, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I just put that in for effect. As in, “uh oh, trading coming!”

by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

MLB Network is showing AFL Championship Gm One Sat 1230

by delias man on Nov 19, 2009 10:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Very close vote

Lincecum 100 pts (11-12-9)
Cap 94 pts (9-14-7)
Wainwright 90 (12-5-15)

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

http://bbwaa.com/

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Vazquez with a 2nd place vote, Haren with a 3rd place vote

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Rediculous

Vazques and Haren should have finished 2 and 3 respectively.

But I say this acknowledging that I am slavish to 1 particular metric….

by Michael White on Nov 19, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright had most 1st place votes

The only other time a pitcher won the Cy Young Award without the most first-place votes was in 1998 when the Atlanta Braves’ Tom Glavine had 11 to San Diego Padres reliever Trevor Hoffman’s 13 but out-pointed him overall, 98-88

I remember San Diegans being very pissed that year. I thought Maddux should have won

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I left of the r in Carp. I wasn’t trying to abbreviate an abbreviation :)

by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like two schools of thought, roughly:
1. Wainwright is the guy
2. Wainwright is the third place guy and Lincecum and Carpenter are 1-2 in some order.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 19, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs