Jeff Bagwell is to James Loney as Pedro Martinez is to Chad Billingsley?
Before there were such things as CHONE, Pecota, and Bill James' annual projection for players, there was a charming little thing called Similarity Scores, also created by Bill James. If you look at baseball-reference.com, you will find a description of the formula used for similarity scores and a credit to James' book The Politics of Glory; however, I first read about them in The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986, in which he introduced the concept, having worked on it over the past year. This was also the book that introduced me to the term sabermetrics, among other things.
I stumbled across The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986 while looking in a book store for a book that contained all the major league statistics for the 1985 season (no baseball-reference.com in those days), which I needed to prepare for a Strat-O-Matic baseball draft. (I went with a HR friendly ballpark and loaded up on power, defense be damned, and drafted Pedro Guerrero #1 at 3B/1B.) The book was an eye-opener in many ways and made me aware that there were a lot of ways to look at baseball and baseball statistics than just the traditional versions. I wonder if I would have even gravitated toward the baseball blogs that I enjoy so much today had I never crossed paths with James' Abstract. By the way, in the Dodgers chapter, James defends Lasorda's decision to pitch to Jack Clark.
If you didn't read the formula in the link, the brief version is that 1000 is a perfect match between two players. Points are then deducted from there based on differences in position, a bunch of counting statistics (e.g., hits) and a few ratios (e.g., batting average, ERA). Obviously, the higher the number, the better the match.
At baseball-reference.com, they calcluate the similarity scores on each player's page, giving the top-10 career similarities, plus the top-10 at each age of the player's career, near the bottom of the page. For example, if you scroll toward the bottom of ex-Dodger Shawn Green's player page, you'll find that his number one match in career similarity score is ex-Dodger Reggie Smith at 945. This is what similarity scores (using this formula) seem to work best for, evaluating player production over an entire career, which is good for things like Hall of Fame arguments. You'll also see that at age 29, after his last great season (2002), the 29-year old he was most similar to was Dale Murphy with a similarity score of 942.
Similarity scores don't make for a particularly great projection system, because, among other things, the stats used aren't the best for that purpose and the similarities don't account for trends (i.e., improving or not), but I'd bet that Bill James used similarity studies with different stats in play to fine tune his projection system. However, that doesn't stop the age-based similarity score summaries at baseball-reference.com from being a lot of fun to peruse and to compare current players to players throughout baseball history and see how that current player might turn out. This turns out to be a fine time to do such a thing because a) the season is over and the hot stove is still thawing out, and b) baseball-reference.com just updated them all to include the 2009 season data.
After the jump are similarity score summaries for the selected returning Dodger players at their 2009-season age. These show the top ten similar players at the same age - some of the names may surprise you:
UPDATE - corrected lists for Russell Martin, Rafael Furcal, and Casey Blake. The previous lists were incorrect due to a bug regarding position adjustments in the baseball-reference.com software that was present at the time this article was originally written. I left the incorrect tables below as well, just for the curiosity of seeing things like Bobby Grich in Russell Martin's list.| Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thurman Munson | 966 | Aaron Boone | 938 | Craig Biggio | 934 | ||
| Sammy White | 956 | Melvin Mora | 930 | Jay Bell | 921 | ||
| Ray Fosse | 942 | Jim Hickman | 911 | Tony Fernandez | 910 | ||
| Ed McFarland | 941 | Dave Hollins | 910 | Ray Durham | 900 | ||
| Rich Gedman | 933 | Charlie Maxwell | 909 | Barry Larkin | 895 | ||
| Yadier Molina | 932 | Jim Lemon | 908 | Cristian Guzman | 893 | ||
| Benito Santiago | 932 | Mel Hall | 907 | Herman Long | 887 | ||
| Jack Clements | 930 | Hoot Evers | 905 | Orlando Cabrera | 885 | ||
| Tim McCarver | 926 | Jay Payton | 903 | Lou Whitaker | 885 | ||
| Bob O'Farrell | 926 | Kevin Millar | 902 | Frankie Crosetti | 885 | ||
| Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thurman Munson | 971 | Jeff Bagwell | 975 | Craig Biggio | 944 | ||
| Felipe Lopez | 966 | Ted Kluszewski | 974 | Ray Durham | 940 | ||
| Mike Andrews | 963 | Alvin Davis | 960 | Jay Bell | 921 | ||
| Sammy White | 962 | Joe Hauser | 948 | Lou Whitaker | 920 | ||
| Ray Durham | 960 | Babe Young | 943 | Jason Kendall | 920 | ||
| Lonny Frey | 960 | Rafael Palmeiro | 939 | Delino DeShields | 916 | ||
| Gil McDougald | 960 | George Kelly | 939 | Chuck Knoblauch | 915 | ||
| Aaron Ward | 954 | Steve Garvey | 939 | Brian Roberts | 914 | ||
| Bobby Grich | 953 | Joe Adcock | 936 | Tony Fernandez | 910 | ||
| Barry Larkin | 951 | Adrian Gonzalez | 935 | Paul Molitor | 909 | ||
| Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Boone | 938 | Ken Griffey, Jr. | 857 | Willie Wilson | 943 | ||
| Melvin Mora | 930 | Jimmie Foxx | 849 | Clyde Milan | 916 | ||
| Jim Hickman | 911 | Frank Robinson | 840 | Max Carey | 910 | ||
| Dave Hollins | 910 | Rafael Palmeiro | 813 | Duff Cooley | 908 | ||
| Charlie Maxwell | 909 | Barry Bonds | 812 | George Case | 904 | ||
| Jason Varitek | 909 | Gary Sheffield | 811 | George Burns | 903 | ||
| Jim Lemon | 908 | Jim Thome | 811 | Steve Brodie | 896 | ||
| Mel Hall | 907 | Jeff Bagwell | 810 | Ginger Beaumont | 892 | ||
| Hoot Evers | 905 | Chipper Jones | 803 | Harry Hooper | 884 | ||
| Jay Payton | 903 | Willie Mays | 800 | Mickey Rivers | 873 | ||
| Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Markakis | 971 | Richie Zisk | 971 | Britt Burns | 972 | ||
| Carlos Beltran | 961 | Bobby Higginson | 970 | Moe Drabowsky | 971 | ||
| Vernon Wells | 960 | Sam Chapman | 966 | John Henry Johnson | 971 | ||
| Enos Slaughter | 955 | Aubrey Huff | 962 | Jack Fisher | 970 | ||
| Ellis Burks | 954 | Jacque Jones | 961 | Carl Cashion | 970 | ||
| Bobby Bonds | 945 | Bill Nicholson | 959 | Ken Holtzman | 969 | ||
| Ellis Valentine | 944 | Jim Edmonds | 957 | Norm Baker | 968 | ||
| Rocco Baldelli | 944 | Jason Giambi | 957 | Jerry Walker | 966 | ||
| Bug Holliday | 941 | Larry Doby | 953 | Dontrelle Willis | 966 | ||
| Andre Dawson | 938 | Reggie Sanders | 951 | Mike Witt | 965 | ||
| Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Culp | 977 | Masato Yoshii | 966 | Doug Bird | 961 | ||
| Pedro Martinez | 975 | Sig Jakucki | 959 | Chad Cordero | 958 | ||
| Jake Peavy | 973 | Walt Dickson | 957 | Roger McDowell | 958 | ||
| Stan Williams | 970 | Kenshin Kawakami | 950 | Huston Street | 956 | ||
| Sid Fernandez | 966 | Frank Oberlin | 949 | Victor Cruz | 956 | ||
| Carlos Zambrano | 965 | Jimmy Zinn | 948 | Steve Bedrosian | 953 | ||
| Dennis Martinez | 965 | Lou Tost | 946 | Antonio Osuna | 953 | ||
| Scott Kazmir | 963 | Art Delaney | 946 | Luis DeLeon | 953 | ||
| Dave McNally | 961 | Bob Keegan | 945 | Scott Williamson | 951 | ||
| Ramon Martinez | 959 | Tom Filer | 944 | Tom Niedenfuer | 950 | ||
| Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hank Aguirre | 982 | Ricardo Rincon | 967 | Scott Sullivan | 988 | ||
| Rich Folkers | 981 | Pedro Feliciano | 962 | Jack Wisner | 985 | ||
| Gene Walter | 978 | Rich Rodriguez | 960 | Gary Wagner | 984 | ||
| Juan Agosto | 977 | Tony Castillo | 956 | Roy Thomas | 984 | ||
| Dick Kelley | 976 | Steve Frey | 950 | Jack Billingham | 984 | ||
| Greg Cadaret | 975 | Kerry Ligtenberg | 949 | Brandon Medders | 982 | ||
| Rafael Perez | 975 | Graeme Lloyd | 949 | Bobby Locke | 982 | ||
| Ken Frailing | 975 | Tom Hilgendorf | 946 | Hersh Freeman | 981 | ||
| Pedro Martinez | 975 | Mike James | 943 | George Frazier | 981 | ||
| Dave Leiper | 974 | Jim Hughes | 942 | Toby Borland | 981 | ||
Did I acknowledge baseball-reference.com enough?
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Comments
Yikes
so we can predict that Matt Kemp will make a lot of money and never accomplish all that much?!
I can easily see Wells being the comp at that age. That was Vernon’s peak year and until he signed the deal was considered on of the best young centerfielders in the game.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I Know - that's what scares me.
I hope we can manage to keep Kemp without paying him so much that it jinxes him (ala Zito, Schmidt, Pavano, Wells etc.)
I've always been worried about the Ellis Valentine
comp because whenever I run numbers for Kemp based on age Valentine always shows up. Big guy, good arms, good speed, good but not great power, lousy plate discipline. Some solid years years, considered on of best young outfielders in the game, then injuries, then oblivion in very short order.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Didn’t Valentine have one really significant injury that took at lot out of him after that – like a beaning? He and Dawson – also on Kemp’s list – were supposed to be 2/3 of a great OF for Montreal.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I don't remember the beaning
but he significant knee problems. I think.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I remember the knees. Didn’t that kill all Montreal OFs except for Raines?
Valentine took one in the face on May 30, 1980. He missed two months, tore it up the rest of the season, but his rapid decline started the next year. Check out the modified helmet he wore!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Yeah, I hope all of his striking out this postseason
is an abberration of wanting to do too much and not a trend that will continue.
by Ian Capilouto on Nov 19, 2009 8:51 AM PST up reply actions
Also
This is really cool. I’m interested in seeing how some of the leagues biggest stars show up on here… specifically the young and upcoming (H. Ramirez, Mauer, King Felix etc.) and the insanely paid superstars (Jeter, A-Rod, Tex etc.)
Jeff Bagwell?
I just don’t see it, though if Loney has an OPS of 1.201 next season, I’ll be very pleasantly surprised.
By the age of 26
Bags had measly home run totals of 15, 18, and 20.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bagweje01.shtml
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
So little data
has Clayton with few favorable comps but Chad is littered with some names I’d love for him to follow.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Juan Pierre is the only guy with no active players on his list. I’d guess he had the most dead-ball era guys too.
Jason Kendall shows up, but on Furcal’s list, not Martin’s.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Yeah I don't get that
shouldn’t the players at least be catchers on Martins list?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
You deduct the differences between these values for the position adjustment
- 240 – Catcher
- 168 – Shortstop
- 132 – Second Base
- 84 – Third Base
- 48 – Outfield
- 12 – First Base
- 0 – DH
Hmmm. That seems like a 112 point deduction when comparing catchers to 2Bs, which should mean that no 2B could be better than 888 to a catcher.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
“That seems like a 112 point deduction when comparing catchers to 2Bs”
108. (Not much difference, to be sure. Just pedantry.)
Likely an apocryphal story, but when Winston Churchill was criticized for ending a sentence with a preposition he retorted, “That is the sort of errant pedantry up with which I will not put.”
(I add the 2 in my head instead of subtracting, oops!)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 19, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
just goes to show
what an unusual type of player Juan Pierre is for our era, which is probably at least in part why he’s so polarizing!
The other Pedro was a journeyman reliever who had a couple decent seasons for the Padres, then had everything fall apart. He was out of the majors completely by ’97.
Ok. Take a deep breath and regroup….
by delias man on Nov 18, 2009 10:48 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Read it again this morning..
And this was good. I have not looked at the updated comps on BBREF this year. I always tend to look to the optimistic side for these kids. Kemp=Dawson would by my dream. If Loney turns into just about anybody on that list it would be great too. Also never thought about Chad and Zambrano. I can see similarities in them now.
Good stuff Dave
The title is excellent, too.
That Manny list is amazing, which is understandable, and of course the fact that the highest similarity score is 857 (Junior) makes Manny even more unique in baseball history.
When you get to obvious HOFers – if you only look at stats, Manny and everyone on his list are clearly HOFers – the similarities scores start dropping fast; that’s why they’re obvious HOFers!
As an aside, the similarity scores would be a little different if B-R was able to include the position deduction for CFs instead of treating them all as OFs, but that data doesn’t exist for all eras. That would shuffle up Matt Kemp’s list if he were considered a CF. I suspect some other CFs bubble up into the top-10, but his current list would reorder something like, based on my estimate of of 44 points for the deduction between CF and other OFs:
Carlos Beltran (961)
Vernon Wells (960)
Ellis Burks (954)
Bobby Bonds (945)
Rocco Baldelli (944)
Bug Holliday (941)
Andre Dawson (938)
Nick Markakis (927)
Enos Slaughter (911)
Ellis Valentine (900)
[Bug Holliday – great name – is an 1800s player; your guess is as good as mine if he was a CF or not. If he wasn’t, his 897 moves him to the bottom of the list. Hoot Evers is also a great name, as is Ginger Beaumont.]
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 19, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Trayvon Robinson and Kenley Jansen will be added to the 40-man, per Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Still awaiting the rest of the list, but I’ll have a story up soon.
It's not
Goldstein just happened to comment on both Robinson and Jansen on Twitter
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
so far Goldstein has only heard of those two, but that makes sense because he is covering the AFL and those two are in AZ playing right now.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
There could always be a chance that DeJesus’ missed year could allow him immunity from the Rule V. Don’t know if that’s in the rulebook however.
by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
Secondly, if we’re not protecting Guerra, I have no problem with that. He showed absolutely horrible command in the AFL appearace I watched. He’d be a dead roster spot on a major league team right now.
by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
No such thing
he will have to be added to be protected from the Rule 5 draft
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Jim Callis
covered this in a chat yesterday:
Kevin: Hey Jim, does Jake McGee have to be protected in this off-season’s Rule 5 draft, or does the injury exempt him? Thanks!
Jim Callis: He’ll need to be protected, the injury has nothing to do with Rule 5 status
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
OK, thanks. So he’s a lock for tomorrow then.
by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
Uh oh
Three way trade brewing (according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today) between Seattle, Detroit and a “mystery team.” The principals are Brandon Morrow and Edwin Jackson.
I have a hunch we’re the other team, with Jackson headed our way.
Way better?
Maybe slightly better. I’d just as soon trust this Nightengale at this point though ;-)

(His Jackson rumor definitely piques my interest but his other one today about Halladay vis a vis Billingsley irked me…)
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
Speaking of Heyman
congrats to nl cy young winner tim lincecum (via comcast). #giants
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Back-to-back Cy's
How’s that for a Super-Two case? :)
by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
If he goes to arb, he could easily get $6.5-7m. Current record for Super Two pitcher is $4.35m (Hamels and Dontrelle)
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
Who else is hoping for Ryan Howard money for Timmy?
by StolenMonkey86 on Nov 19, 2009 8:44 PM PST up reply actions
KNBR
was ecstatic today at this news, but the downside is the money Timmy is going to make is really going to hamper the Giants payroll flexibility. Thanks to some terrible contracts, any raise to Lincecum pretty much prevents them from going after any names on the FA market, hence why they’re already bowing out of the Bay/Holliday sweepstakes.
This is important because they’re getting a lot of heat up here to get some bats to make a legitimate run and it was highly expected for them to take a stab at Bay, at the very least. Look for the natives to be very restless up here, which just warms the cockles of my heart.
Enjoy the individual awards, Giants fans, that’s all you get these days.
by Capt Obvious on Nov 20, 2009 12:29 AM PST up reply actions
The only reason I don't think
he will get $10m, like Howard, is because he doesn’t quite have the same level of service time as Howard, who had three full years when he set the record at $10m.
Lincecum could probably win a $7m arb case, especially if the owners hire Tal Smith again as their representative.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 20, 2009 8:14 AM PST up reply actions
Why uh oh?
The rumor last week was Sherril for Jackson. Something like that is a huge win for the Dodgers.
by Michael White on Nov 19, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
I just put that in for effect. As in, “uh oh, trading coming!”
by silverwidow on Nov 19, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
Vazquez with a 2nd place vote, Haren with a 3rd place vote
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Rediculous
Vazques and Haren should have finished 2 and 3 respectively.
But I say this acknowledging that I am slavish to 1 particular metric….
by Michael White on Nov 19, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Wainwright had most 1st place votes
The only other time a pitcher won the Cy Young Award without the most first-place votes was in 1998 when the Atlanta Braves’ Tom Glavine had 11 to San Diego Padres reliever Trevor Hoffman’s 13 but out-pointed him overall, 98-88
I remember San Diegans being very pissed that year. I thought Maddux should have won
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
I left of the r in Carp. I wasn’t trying to abbreviate an abbreviation :)
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Looks like two schools of thought, roughly:
1. Wainwright is the guy
2. Wainwright is the third place guy and Lincecum and Carpenter are 1-2 in some order.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 19, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
We know Keith Law (per his Twitter) had Lincecum #1, but not sure of his 2-3.
Ken Davidoff of NY Newsday had Lincecum-Wainwright-Carpenter
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
And here I thought
the pounding we gave Timmy in mid-September sunk his chances. If only Carp had Wain’s wins or Wain had Carp’s era, it would’ve been different.
I also think in my quirky opinion, this sets the bar higher for Clayton, we did pick him over Timmy and he’s had 2 CY’s now already.
by Capt Obvious on Nov 19, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
Official
Dodgers add three to 40-man (DeJesus was the other)
http://www.truebluela.com/2009/11/19/1164631/dodgers-add-three-to-40-man-roster
The only others with a shot
were Van Slyke, Guerra, and (way down the list) Josh Wall. None of them are likely to get taken in the Rule 5 though anyway.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 19, 2009 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
kinda funny Loney was listed as similar to A-Gon
considering that we might have made a trade for him but it never happened…
Leave Chad Billingsley alone!!!

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