Kershaw Closing In On Dubious, Meaningless Record

by Eric Stephen on Nov 24, 2009 4:00 PM PST in Research Comment 34 comments

More photos » Mark J. Terrill - AP

This is the only permitted outfield activity Clayton Kershaw is allowed to partake during pregame warmups.

Clayton Kershaw has a bright future in this game. This we know. His present isn't so bad either, of course. This year, he struck out more than a batter per inning, he allowed the lowest opponent batting average in baseball, and his adjusted ERA (ERA+) was 141.

Kershaw is left-handed, so the comparisons to Sandy Koufax are inevitable, but for Kershaw to be mentioned in the same breath as another famous Dodger lefty, Fernando Valenzuela, is also a fitting honor. Normally, Kershaw approaching a record held by Valenzuela would be something to celebrate. But not in this case.

Believe it or not, Kershaw has not won a game since July 18. That is not to say he hasn't pitched well. If the Cy Young awards this season have taught us anything, it's that pitcher wins aren't the best method to measure performance. Tim Lincecum (15 wins) and Zack Greinke (16 wins) were well-deserving winners, even though they didn't have the traditionally high win totals of past winners.

Including the postseason, Kershaw has made 13 straight starts without recording a win. There have only been six longer streaks in Los Angeles Dodger history:

Most Consecutive Winless Starts, LA Dodger History
Pitcher	Year(s)	Starts	W-L	IP	H	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Fernando Valenzuela	'88-,89	19	0-8	102.0	109	56	58	61	4.94	1.637
Alejandro Peña	'86-'87	15	0-6	71.2	89	44	24	41	5.53	1.577
Rick Honeycutt	1987	14	0-11	71.2	92	44	34	52	5.53	1.758
Don Sutton	1974	14	0-6	75.0	85	47	27	36	5.64	1.493
Ismael Valdez	'99-'00	13	0-6	62.0	87	51	25	45	7.40	1.806
Pedro Astacio	'94-'95	13	0-4	74.1	71	37	25	63	4.48	1.291
Clayton Kershaw	2009	13	0-4	73.2	62	25	36	84	3.05	1.330

Take a look at that list, and notice that the other pitchers pitched rather poorly during their streaks, but Kershaw was still effective during his winless run. Earlier this month, I looked at some of the bad luck behind Kershaw's second half. The bottom line is that it doesn't really matter that Kershaw didn't get those wins. If he keeps pitching like he has been, the wins will come. Oh, will they come.

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And to think Kershaw could have been a Tiger...or a Marlin*

*Assuming he would have replaced Andrew Miller in the Miggy/Dontrelle package from two years ago

by silverwidow on Nov 24, 2009 4:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Already one of the best pitchers around

The Minotaur

by 68elcamino427 on Nov 24, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Happy Birthday to

TrueBlue’s Phil Gurnee! Hope it was full of Dodger related paraphernalia in gifts.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos fan in Niners/Raiders country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Nov 24, 2009 5:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Happy Birthday Phil

May you remain older than me for many, many years to come.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 25, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If he freezes himself

you many be in trouble.

by Cool Dudes on Nov 25, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If the Ted Williams’ Estate could afford only to freeze a head, I’m thinking Phil’s pinkie doesn’t count.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 25, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks to Diamond Leung

who reminded me that Kershaw also had a long winless streak in 2008. I looked it up, and it stretched back to his final two starts in AA in 2007. Kershaw made 19 straight starts without a win:

2 in late August 2007 in AA
8 in 2008 in AA
8 in 2008 in MLB (first 8 major league starts)
1 more in 2008 in AA (after demotion)

Kershaw was 0-6 in those 19 starts, but with a 3.29 ERA and 8.97 K/9.

He did pick up a win in his next two minor league starts, throwing a combined 12 scoreless innings, and was then called up to the bigs for good.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 24, 2009 7:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

More interesting Kershaw streaks

He currently has the longest streak ever by a Dodger at Dodger Stadium giving up 3 runs or less (24).

http://bit.ly/7T0yy5

Rick Honeycutt is amazingly second with 23 straight. The most Koufax had was 19 straight.

Kershaw has made 27 career starts at Dodger Stadium. He has given up…

4 runs: once
3 runs: seven times
2 runs: seven times
1 run: four times
0 runs: eight times

Of course that is just regular season. He gave up 5 runs to Philly in Game 1 of this year’s NLCS. He has a 2.69 combined ERA at Dodger Stadium in his career (including playoffs).

by Eric Stephen on Nov 24, 2009 8:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Do you think this is because he is so young?

I mean he’s 21 – as he grows and hits 28 and matures into his body and gets used to the league, won’t he be as dominant on the road as he is at home?

by Seanny Rotten on Nov 24, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Might have just been familiarity. For instance, over his last 10 road starts he only gave up 15 runs, and had a 2.19 ERA. He was 5-1 averaging 6.12 IP per road start.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 24, 2009 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maury Brown has a great article on revenue sharing in baseball.

http://ow.ly/FiX6

by Eric Stephen on Nov 24, 2009 9:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

What a loser

Branden Looper knows how to win.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 25, 2009 6:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The metric for wins was conceived in a different era where men were men, racist, and pitched 18 consecutive innings (and presumably had short careers or were converted to the best hitter of all time)

It no longer has much relevance.

It would make much more sense to credit the starting pitcher with the actual result of the game. At least that way you could see how the pitcher helps/hurts the team and could be used as a comparison to the other starters on the squad. Then wins/total team wins might have some relevance as well.

Theoretically it should be a useful stat, because it correlates well with the only stat that matters.

by Cool Dudes on Nov 25, 2009 8:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't correlate well with the stat that matters

To win a baseball game you have to score more runs than your opponent. The pitcher only controls (and only to a certain degree as there is defense involved) the amount of runs your opponent scores but has no control on the number of runs you score. Stats are useful in determining individual contributions; the win “stat” has too many variables.

by Michael White on Nov 25, 2009 9:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It doesn’t correlate well with the stat that matters

I knew one day you would slip up.

by Cool Dudes on Nov 25, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder what the total balls thrown count is for K in that span?

Probably rivals Fernando’s.

by Cool Dudes on Nov 25, 2009 8:54 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Kershaw threw 37% balls during his streak.

Fernando threw 43% balls during his streak.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 25, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Jim Callis of Baseball America

is chatting on ESPN right now. Some Dodgers Q&A:

rayg (burlington, NJ): Jim-thanks for the chat. Dee Gordon-will he be able to hit enough to make it to LA in the next 2-3 years? Do you see him moving up to Inland Empire or Chattanooga in 2010?

Callis: I do think he’ll hit enough. He has hit .331 and .301 in two pro seasons despite his inexperience, and his speed should keep him out of slumps. I think he’ll continue the more he plays. The plan is for him to start 2010 in high Class A, but I could see him in Double-A by the end of the year

John (Los Angeles): Who is a better prospect and why: Ethan Martin or Chris Withrow?

Callis: It’s pretty close, but I’d go with Withrow because he’s more polished at this point and has proven himself at higher levels.

brian (pasadena): Hey Jim,Is Allan Webster anything for Dodger fans to get excited about?

Callis: Yes, yes he is. Unknown when the Dodgers took him in the 18th round of the 2008 draft out of a North Carolina HS, he has an effortless 94-mph fastball and promising secondary pitches

Jose (Long Beach,ca): How is the dodger farm system right now. It seems that its young but they have solid players in Withrow, Martin, Miller, Gordon and Webster. When will McCheap start looking at international players since the dodgers where the pioneers.

Callis: The Dodgers have graduated a lot of talent to the majors this decade, and they’re currently replenishing the system. It’s stronger at the lower levels than the upper levels, but those guys you mentioned and some others are promising. LA thinks the international market is less efficient than the draft, and it has focused on the draft rather than big-money foreign signings. They generally don’t go over slot and get good bang for their buck, but it’s also a disadvantage when most teams are outspending you on the draft and internationally.

Jose’s day job is as a comedian.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 25, 2009 11:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of prospects

BA has velocities (average/max) from several AFL guys, notably Jansen (96.6 max) and Guerra (96.5 max). These guys are POWER arms, obviously. They just need to work out their command for the next 1-2 years before they hit the ML pen.

by silverwidow on Nov 25, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Andruw Jones to the White Sox

as he collects roughly$5m from the Dodgers in 2010…

The Chicago White Sox have signed OF Andruw Jones to a 1-yr contract worth $500,000 and up to an additional $1 million in bonuses.

From Digital Sports Daily

by Eric Stephen on Nov 25, 2009 12:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I posted this on Twitter

Andruw 2007-09: .207/.304/.393. Among 234 MLBers w/1000 PA, he ranks…
234th in BA
218th in OBP
189th in SLG
213th in OPS
217th in OPS+

Just for fun…2007-2009 OPS
Pierre .69644
Andruw .69640

by Eric Stephen on Nov 25, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

BEAST MODE!!!

Beast Mode triumphs Tub of Goo.

by Ivdown on Nov 25, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I have never seen a Juan Pierre sucks at hitting post more convincing than this one

Well done Eric, well done.

by Cool Dudes on Nov 25, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

First thought was "man Andrew Jones is horrible because he's slightly worse than Pierre"

But after thinking about it, Pierre is extremely horrible for being just as bad as Andruw Jones.

by Ivdown on Nov 25, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

At least Juan can run fast

Andruw is just fat

by Michael White on Nov 25, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This would be the same Chicago White Sox that train at Camelback Ranch also, eh? Interesting.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 25, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Booed at home spring training games? :)

by Eric Stephen on Nov 25, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If I was there, I would not waste a minute of my life at a White Sox game.

Have you seen the talent at the local malls?

by delias man on Nov 25, 2009 3:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn’t get a chance to check out that scene. Went for lunch at Gordon Biersch, where UCLA alum BHSportsGuy asked an innocuous question to a guy wearing a UCLA jersey and was told in no uncertain terms to fuck off.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 25, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You should have head-butted him. That would teach him.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 25, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

anyone hear about the UCLA bruin getting a paint job?

i wonder who was "guarding the statue?
USC had people guarding tommy trojan in shifts overnight….

Leave Chad Billingsley alone!!!

by shaqfor3 on Nov 25, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's also to be noted

that Kershaw didn’t pitch deep into the games (he did occasionally)

by LAD17 on Nov 26, 2009 7:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Of the 77 major-league pitching that qualified for the ERA title (nominally 162 IP), 60 were at 6.0 IP/Game Started or better. The bottom 17 were:
Doug Davis 5.97
Ricky Nolasco 5.97
Mike Pelfrey 5.94
Livan Hernandez 5.91
Jason Hammel 5.87
Brett Anderson 5.84
Barry Zito 5.82
Jorge de la Rosa 5.78
Brad Penny 5.77
Braden Looper 5.71
Derek Lowe 5.71
Johnny Cueto 5.70
Clayton Kershaw 5.70
Max Scherzer 5.67
Jonathan Sanchez 5.62
Trevor Cahill 5.57
Rick Porcello 5.49

Now most pitchers on this list are league-average or better type pitchers, otherwise their managers wouldn’t keep putting them out there for as many as 162 innings; only 12 had an ERA+ under 95, 7 of whom appear in the list above.

Stats extracted from baseball-reference.com.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 26, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs