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Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

For the last two years I've done a rundown of Los Angeles Dodger Win Shares. In many circles Win Shares has become passe as WAR has become the stat of choice, but because I built the complete Win Share database based on data in the original book plus the subsequent  Bill James Handbooks I haven't felt like letting go. For those who have never heard of Win Shares, it is a statistic created by Bill James the author of the great The Bill James Baseball Abstract series which changed many a baseball fans perception of the game. I used to link to a Rob Neyer review of  Win Shares but the article is now gone. For a more recent story,  THT compares WAR to Win Shares.  THT used to carry their own tweaked version of Win Shares but stopped after the 2008 season. Here is what the 2008 Season Win Share breakdown looked like.

Sure Win Shares is not the be all stat, but it is still interesting to see how the breakdown works. It is a complex algorithm but the guts is that each team is credited with three win shares per actual win. Bill James then works his magic to allocate those wins based on statistical measures to each player on the team.

Here is the 2009 season update.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2009 Win Shares
Player Win Shares
Matt Kemp 26
Andre Ethier 21
Orlando Hudson 20
Casey Blake 19
James Loney 18
Manny Ramirez 18
Rafael Furcal 17
Russell Martin 16
Jon Broxton 16
Randy Wolf 14
Juan Pierre 12
Clayton Kershaw 12
Chad Billingsley 9
Ramon Troncoso 8
Ronaldo Belisario 7
Hiroki Kuroda 5
Jeff Weaver 5
G Mota 4
Hong-Chih Kuo 3
Mark Loretta 3
James McDonald 3
Brad Ausmus 3

Castro and Stults had two each, while EyeChart, Wade, Abreu, Milton, Haeger, and Elbert had a single win share. Based on the formual the Dodgers would have had 285 win shares (95 * 3) to spread among it's players. I have no way of knowing how many win shares Sherrill(13), Belliard(7), and Padilla(8) had since they don't break them up per team. If you add up all of the Dodgers including those three we have 13 extra win shares which means they should be divided among the trade/waiver deadline pickups.

James Loney was the only 1st baseman of note to garner any Win Shares for the Dodgers in 2009. His season was quite pedestrian by most measures but he did have the 5th most win shares on the team in 2009 with 18. He's yet to crack the top 10 single season win share mark but after only three full seasons he's moved into 5th place on the all-time 1st baseman Win Share list passing Gil Hodges and Greg Brock. For many of you this is the first time you have seen this list, so I'll remind you that this only includes Los Angeles Dodgers. It has been 19 years since the last memorable season by a Dodger 1st baseman.

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman
Player Order Career Win Shares Year Win Shares
Murray, Eddie 1st 68 1990 31
Parker, Wes 2nd 146 1970 29
Garvey, Steve 3rd 223 1974 27
Garvey, Steve 4th 223 1976 26
Karros, Eric T-5th 175 1995 25
Garvey, Steve T-5th 223 1978 25
Garvey, Steve T-5th 223 1975 25
Karros, Eric T-8th 175 1998 22
Garvey, Steve T-8th 223 1980 22
Garvey, Steve T-8th 223 1979 22

For the career totals and complete seasonal leaders for 1st baseman click on read more.

Star-divide

Many Dodgers played 1st and the outfield. Ron Fairly was the 1st baseman for the early part of the 60's before Wes Parker took over. Mike Marshall played many games at 1st and in the outfield. Same with Franklin Stubbs. Someday I may break out the career numbers but for now I'm lumping them into the 1st/OF category.

Career Win Shares for LA Dodger 1st Baseman
Player TWS Pos
Garvey, Steve 223 1st
Karros, Eric 175 1st
Parker, Wes 146 1st
Murray, Eddie 68 1st
Loney, James 51 1st
Brock, Greg 47 1st
Hodges, Gil 37 1st
Garciaparra, Nomar 29 1st
Farily, Ron 142 1st/OF
Mike, Marshall 108 1st/OF
Buckner, Billy 80 1st/OF
Larker, Norm 35 1st/OF
Stubbs, Franklin 34 1st/OF

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman
Player Pos Career Win Shares Year  Win Share Per Season
Murray, Eddie 1st 68 1990 31
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1970 29
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1974 27
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1976 26
Karros, Eric 1st 175 1995 25
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1978 25
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1975 25
Karros, Eric 1st 175 1998 22
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1980 22
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1979 22
Murray, Eddie 1st 68 1989 21
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1977 21
Farily, Ron 1st 142 1963 21
Farily, Ron 1st 142 1962 21
Karros, Eric 1st 175 1999 20
Karros, Eric 1st 175 1996 20
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1965 20
Garciaparra, Nomar 1st 29 2006 18
Karros, Eric 1st 175 2002 18
Karros, Eric 1st 175 1997 18
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1971 18
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1969 18
Loney, James 1st 51 2009 18
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1966 17
Farily, Ron 1st 142 1964 17
Hodges, Gil 1st 37 1959 17
Loney, James 1st 51 2007 16
Murray, Eddie 1st 68 1991 16
Loney, James 1st 51 2008 15
Brock, Greg 1st 47 1985 15
Brock, Greg 1st 47 1983 15
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1982 15
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1967 15
Farily, Ron 1st 142 1961 15
Karros, Eric 1st 175 2000 14
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1972 14
Larker, Norm 1st 35 1960 14
Karros, Eric 1st 175 1992 13
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1981 13
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1968 12
Hodges, Gil 1st 37 1958 12
Garvey, Steve 1st 223 1973 11
Buckner, Billy 1st 80 1973 11
Karros, Eric 1st 175 1993 10
Stubbs, Franklin 1st 34 1987 9
Brock, Gregg 1st 47 1986 9
Karros, Eric 1st 175 2001 8
Brock, Greg 1st 47 1984 8
Larker, Norm 1st 35 1959 8
Karros, Eric 1st 175 1994 7
Larker, Norm 1st 35 1958 7
Stubbs, Franklin 1st 34 1988 6
Larker, Norm 1st 35 1961 6
Hodges, Gil 1st 37 1961 5
Farily, Ron 1st 142 1959 5
Loney, James 1st 51 2006 3
Parker, Wes 1st 146 1964 3
Hodges, Gil 1st 37 1960 3
Farily, Ron 1st 142 1958 2

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I still don't completely understand this.

But I do understand that WHY THE FUCK DOES JOE TORRE HATE O-DOG SO MUCH?

by bearface on Nov 30, 2009 7:07 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

2001 Karros Sucked...

Thanks for reminding me!!

by delias man on Nov 30, 2009 8:16 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Reminder: BA Dodgers top 10 comes out Friday

Last year, I was able to get the actual magazine with the list beforehand, but that won’t be the case this time. I wonder if any subscribers read this site and might want to give a sneak preview?

by silverwidow on Nov 30, 2009 10:38 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Anticipation

is the spice of life.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

How much, as in how much of a preview or how much money?

by silverwidow on Nov 30, 2009 11:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

How much to subscribe to BA?

by Julio Nievas on Nov 30, 2009 11:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s expensive. I believe one year of the magazine is something like $95 (exact rates are somewhere on the website). You can get a web only subscription, though, that’s a lot cheaper.

by silverwidow on Nov 30, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

wow

$66 for a one-year subscription is a bit too much for me.

by Julio Nievas on Nov 30, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

Scott Elbert
Josh Lindblom
Chris Withrow
Dee Gordon
Ethan Martin

in some order will be top 5

by Julio Nievas on Nov 30, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Apologies to A.M.

by Julio Nievas on Nov 30, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Elbert and Lindblom

will not make their top 5. Just a guess there.

The other two will probably be Lambo and perhaps A Miller.

by silverwidow on Nov 30, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

with BA you really have to look at how players did in the top 20 league reviews. Since neither Elbert or Lindblom made the top 20 you can remove them from consideration. My guess:
Dee Gordon
Chris WIthrow
Andrew Miller
Ethan Martin
Trayvon Robinson or Lambo

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Andrew Miller? Ewww.

Aaron. :)

by silverwidow on Nov 30, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yuck is right

wonder if he’ll ever amount to anything (talking about Andrew)

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2009 4:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

For El Lay Dave

saw this on Twitter (re-tweeted by Jon Weisman):

Zooey Deschanel is a Dodgers fan! i love her. :]

by Eric Stephen on Nov 30, 2009 10:50 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

She needs to be invited to throw out a first pitch.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Dec 1, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Back to win shares

I think it is amazing we haven’t had a 1st baseman with more then 22 Win Shares since 1998. That is a decade of average to below average production from a key slugging position.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2009 11:09 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

2000s were light years for Dodger 1B

2000-2009
All NL 1B: .279/.364/.482, .846 OPS
NL team avg: 92 runs, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 78 walks, 37 doubles

Dodgers 1B: .273/.340/.445, .785 OPS
Dodger avg: 81 runs, 23 HR, 101 RBI , 61 walks, 33 doubles

Dodgers OPS rank at 1B by year:
2000: 15th (of 16 teams)
2001: 12th
2002: 13th
2003: 16th
2004: 12th
2005: 6th
2006: 4th
2007: 13th
2008: 12th
2009: 14th

by Eric Stephen on Nov 30, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

First base is a tough position to fill

Power hitting first basemen are pretty expensive (Texiera) so the Dodgers need to develop power hitting corner infielders in their system. Problem is (as you’ve noted) hat the Dodgers haven’t done a good job of developing power hitters or they trade them away (Bell, Santana) to save some money.

To me, if the Dodgers miraculously had the money and desire to trade for Halladay, I would argue the smarter move would be to target M Cabrera. It’s simply easier to find/develop top pitchers as opposed to top first basemen.

by Michael White on Nov 30, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Surprisingly you are right

even though at first blush it would seem to be easier to find slugging 1st baseman. I would also rather target M Cabrera and even wrote a big ole fanpost on the subject last week but scuttled it when I decided it would never happen under the current financial cloud.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just have to ask

I don’t follow football very much anymore but I do remember many non Green Bay friends for some strange reason being offended that Brett Favre just didn’t want to stay retired. After watching him last night, don’t most of you feel foolish?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2009 11:25 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Brett Favre

Was my favorite player growing up. In ‘97, I sent him a letter through the address ’Sports Illustrated for Kids’ provided. Weeks later, I got a signed autograph postcard, with the picture of that looks kind of like this. He wrote something as “Thanks for the kind words and being a fan of mine Julio..” and I forgot the rest. That was pretty special to me.

by Julio Nievas on Nov 30, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

MJ and Grant Hill never wrote back :(

by Julio Nievas on Nov 30, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not a big football fan either, but

I can understand feeling “offended”- it was the WAY he went back and forth, not the fact that he didn’t stay retired. He made a big deal of saying goodbye, then when he changed his mind almost immediately after, HE was the one who was offended that Green Bay wouldn’t take him back. The fact that he made such a big deal of it two off-season in a row didn’t help. It wasn’t at all about his talent, but I won’t lie when I say I would’ve at least snickered a LITTLE bit had he fallen flat on his face. :)

(The Sears commercial was a nice touch, though- at least it showed he had a little bit of a sense of humor about the whole thing.)

by sarcastro9 on Nov 30, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Edwin Jackson semi-update

from Jon Heyman:

hearing #tigers sought young pitchers brandon morrow and shawn kelley for edwin jackson. #mariners apparently said no.

Sounds like the pricey reliever for the return of E-Jax plan wouldn’t work.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 30, 2009 11:30 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Danys Baez is a free agent this year

so he won’t be traded for Edwin Jackson again

by StolenMonkey86 on Nov 30, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sad to see Weis gone.

by Eric Stephen on Nov 30, 2009 11:42 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

He recruited real good position players

I see him more of a coordinator than a coach.

by Julio Nievas on Nov 30, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too…we may have to actually play well to beat them once they get a new coach.

by KellyStephen on Nov 30, 2009 3:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The two coaches before Weis were also horrible

Before the Hawaii bowl win last year the Irish hadn’t won a bowl game since 95. A lot of that is thanks to the media artificially propping up ND so they are in bowl games they can’t possibly compete in (the BCS games against Oregon State, Ohio State, and LSU come to mind) but that program has been in trouble for a while. The reason for the recent dominance of USC over ND has less to do with the ND head coach than it does with the USC head coach. Stewart Mandel said it best, Notre Dame is no better than Stanford or Northwestern. They will occasionally sport good teams (like Stanford this year and Northwestern in 95) but the days of Notre Dame dominance is over.

by Michael White on Nov 30, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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