What The Dodgers Missed Out On: The Value of Draft Picks
by Eric Stephen on Dec 1, 2009 9:07 PM PST
in Dodgers History & Records
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PrintThe Dodgers declined arbitration today to Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson, along with their five Type B free agents as well. As a result, the Dodgers won't get any compensation if these players sign elsewhere. The Dodgers will probably claim there was too big a risk that Wolf and/or Hudson would accept arbitration, even though:
- Wolf is the second-best starting pitcher on the free agent market, behind John Lackey. He would have received multiple multi-year offers whether or not he was wearing a scarlet Type A on his chest
- Hudson is still steamed at his benching in September and October, and didn't want to come back
I think the overwhelming likelihood, especially in the case of Wolf, was that both players would decline arbitration. Apparently the Dodgers didn't think that. But, for now, I'm concerned at just what the Dodgers missed out on in terms of compensation.
If the Dodgers would have offered arbitration to either Wolf or Hudson, they would have received two draft picks as compensation had they signed elsewhere. One pick would be a first rounder, if the signing team had one of the best 15 records in 2009, or a second round pick if the signing team had one of the worst 15 records in 2009. The other compensation pick would be a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. So, if the Dodgers offered arbitration to both players, they could have possibly had four extra picks in the first two rounds of the 2010 draft.
The real question is figuring out just what those draft picks are worth. Earlier, courtesy of Jay Jaffe, we pointed to a study from four years ago by Baseball Prospectus which showed that, on average, a team losing a Type A free agent is compensated with $12 million worth of draft picks. Is that value the same today? I don't know, but the value of those picks would have to drop quite a bit in order to make the signing bonuses -- likely between $1-2 million each -- not worth it.
I wanted to look at it a different way. I decided to use Wins Above Replacement (WAR), available on Fangraphs, just as a quick way to identify the best players in baseball. In 2009, Randy Wolf provided 3.0 WAR and Orlando Hudson provided 2.9 WAR to the Dodgers, so I used 3.0 WAR as the cutoff. In 2009, there were 124 players in MLB that had 3.0 WAR or higher. Now, where did these players come from?
Almost a quarter of the players -- 30 of the 124 -- were drafted in the first 16 picks of the draft. That's a good cutoff point since the top 16 picks of the 2010 draft are protected from compensation, so the Dodgers wouldn't get those picks anyway. The types of picks we are concerned with start with #17 and go through the end of the second round. Another near quarter of the top players in baseball -- 29 out of 124, 23.4% -- were drafted in picks 17 through the end of the second round, the very types of picks the Dodgers could have received as compensation if they weren't so risk averse.
| 3.0 WAR Players 2009 | |
| Draft Picks | No |
| 1st (1-16) | 30 |
| 1st-2nd (17-75) | 29 |
| 3rd-4th | 11 |
| 5th-6th | 7 |
| 7th-8th | 4 |
| 9th-10th | 1 |
| 11th-12th | 1 |
| 13th-14th | 3 |
| 15th-16th | 2 |
| 17th-18th | 2 |
| 19th-20th | 1 |
| 21st-25th | 5 |
| 26th-30th | 2 |
| 31st + | 4 |
| International | 22 |
| Total | 124 |
Don't get me wrong; the draft is no exact science. There are far more misses than hits. But, it seems to me trying to accumulate as many picks in the first two rounds as possible would be a good way to add talent to the roster.
Today, the Dodgers missed a chance to do just that.
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This is worth saying again
If Bengie Molina is the 2010 Dodgers’ starting catcher, I will punch a baby in the face.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 1, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
We know this much
*Ned tried to sign this guy the last time he was a FA (2005).
*Ned doesn’t value walks or OBP, so Molina’s .285 mark from last year won’t be much issue
*The 20 HR/80 RBI numbers probably mean a lot to Ned
*He’s a veteran and has a World Series ring (i.e. gamer, grinder, etc)
*He might cost 1/2 of what it would take to sign Martin
It’s possible, sorry to say.
While I also don't want the Dodgers to sign Bengie Molina
one could look at it this way.
Half the salary
Martin would be traded (I still don’t see him being non-tendered) so he would bring in other assets
Molina’s OPS of .727> Martin’s OPS of .680.
Just trying to look on the bright side…
by Michael White on Dec 1, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions
Even if you don't want to use OPS
because Molina’s OBP is so poor compared to Martin (and OBP is more important than SLG)
Martin and Molina are essentially a draw according to wOBA.
Molina: .308
Martin: .307
by Michael White on Dec 1, 2009 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
Could the Dodgers re-sign Thome and use him as a courtesy runner for Bengie?
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 1, 2009 10:11 PM PST up reply actions
Will he play for Dodger Dogs
Otherwise this is “wishfull” thinking.
Man you guys really haven’t figured out how pathetic this situation is.
I think EVERYONE here figured it out right away
we’re just still in somewhat of a state of shock. I’ve seen a few comments on other sites where people REALLY don’t get it, saying the same old same old about how “McCheap” won’t pay for a pitcher like “Holloday” (they usually spell his name like that) or how we need to fire Ned for the Jason Schmidt contract, etc. etc.. Now THOSE people really think this is “business as usual”, but of course it isn’t. Even with ALL the bad moves in the past- the Pedro/Delino swap, the Piazza trade, Ned’s axis of evil (Jones, Schmidt, and if you must, Pierre)- but as bad as most of those were, at least there was SOME baseball rationale to it, however flawed it may have been. The present case doesn’t have anything that even CAN work out, and that’s what makes it so unique. This truly is uncharted territory, and I’m not looking forward to whatever might be next.
23 FA offered arbitration
per MLBTR:
Type A (10 players):
Chone Figgins
John Lackey
Jose Valverde
Marco Scutaro
Mike Gonzalez
Rafael Soriano
Matt Holliday
Billy Wagner
Jason Bay
Rafael Betancourt
Type B (13 players)
Justin Duchscherer
Rod Barajas
Joel Pineiro
Mark DeRosa
Adrian Beltre
Ivan Rodriguez
Marlon Byrd
Brian Shouse
Gregg Zaun
Jason Marquis
Brandon Lyon
Fernando Rodney
Carl Pavano
10 of 21 Type As got offered arb
not counting #22 Orlando Cabrera (who couldn’t be offered arb per contract)
Here are the remaining 11 Type As, who weren’t offered arb, ranked by WAR:
Polanco 3.1
Wolf 3.0
Damon 3.0
Hudson 2.9
Tejada 2.6
Molina 1.8
Oliver 1.5
Dotel 0.8
Hawkins 0.3
Gregg -0.3
Dye -0.3
well, we knew the Tigers situation
They might be the only other “quality” team with more problems at the top of their organization than ours. And Yankee fans certainly aren’t going to scream with rage for not offering arbitration to Damon. So that leaves the Dodgers with TWO of the top four with no offer. Wow. Just…wow.
The Tigers still offered arb to 2 Type A Free Agents
They may be reconsidering their strategy, but it’s not a complete mess like the Dodgers.
by Michael White on Dec 1, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions
I have not calmed down from this afternoon, and this isn't helping
So the much smaller market Rockies have offered arbitration to Jason Marquis AND Rafael Betancourt, neither of whom are nearly as valuable as Wolf. And the Mariners have offered arbitration to Beltre, who certainly didn’t live up to his contract and is only a TYPE B! Yet O-Dog gets NOTHING?
Seriously. We can NOT let the McCourts forget this next season, even if the Dodgers do manage to do well (I mean, they still have a very good team…at the moment). Not sure what this’ll entail, but I hope it’s good. At the very least, we can be sure that the days of polite applause that Frank gets when they show his face on the screen (“famous Irish-Americans”, etc.) are dead and gone.
I'm a little surprised by Duchsherer
though he is fairly cheap.
Even a man who is pure in heart and says his prayers by night, may become a wolf when the wolfbane blooms and the autumn moon is bright.
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Dec 1, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions
(rimshot)
Even a man who is pure in heart and says his prayers by night, may become a wolf when the wolfbane blooms and the autumn moon is bright.
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Dec 1, 2009 9:40 PM PST up reply actions
Well that was quick
Billy Wagner, a Type A, signed with the Braves on a 1-year deal, per Rosenthal.
Braves have the 20th pick in the 2010 draft.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 1, 2009 10:08 PM PST up reply actions
worth noting the Braves are expecting 4 picks back for Gonzalez/Soriano, so they were probably more willing to give up pick #20.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 1, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
I feel like the Braves would be better off
re-signing Soriano and not signing Wagner, but what do I know, I’m not a GM!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
There is one potential saving grace RE: Wolf
if they sign him to a 2 or 3-year contract at a rate (at least in 2010) lower than he would have received in arbitration. That is still possible.
Yup, always better to sign the oft hurt 30 something year old pitcher to a multi year deal then get him on a one year deal. Plenty of teams have won with that strategy.
Hamburger A – One year 10 Million or 2 high draft picks
Hamburger B – No draft picks but 3 years and 24 Million
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Wimpy
And the Dodgers will gladly pay you in 2013 for a hamburger today
by Eric Stephen on Dec 1, 2009 10:36 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Colletti again shot down speculation that the Dodgers either want, or are willing, to move Billingsley.
“I can’t trade him,” Colletti said. “Where do you find another one? I need more, not less.”
TBLA breathes a collective sigh of relief.
If you need more
THEN OFFER WOLF ARBITRATION
Even a man who is pure in heart and says his prayers by night, may become a wolf when the wolfbane blooms and the autumn moon is bright.
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Dec 1, 2009 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
Suggesting McCourt pulled the strings?
Even a man who is pure in heart and says his prayers by night, may become a wolf when the wolfbane blooms and the autumn moon is bright.
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Dec 1, 2009 9:46 PM PST up reply actions
I figured as much
Even a man who is pure in heart and says his prayers by night, may become a wolf when the wolfbane blooms and the autumn moon is bright.
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Dec 1, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions
My favorite quote, from Gurnick
Colletti said he’s prepared to go with DeWitt if he doesn’t find a “solution.”
Eric, this is a great post
I know Baseball Prospectus Rany J did an exhaustive study several years ago that showed what we have been telling people that high draft picks are important to the supply of the major league roster but it is still a good idea to remind everyone just how important high draft picks are and the difference in quality between a 1 and a 3.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
can we track compensation picks easily?
in other words, is there a site that shows historical picks, ie. “Jason Giambi was signed by the Yankees, A’s drafted [player B] from Yankees’ slot as compensation”.
Baseball reference has draft results for every year and notes all compensation links.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 1, 2009 10:26 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Here is the 1st round of the 2009 draft
by Eric Stephen on Dec 1, 2009 10:28 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
and Wright was almost traded for Jose Cruz, Jr.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 2, 2009 8:51 AM PST up reply actions
from the '01 draft
this one hasn’t done too badly!
“David Wright (Mets-1s) – Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Mike Hampton "
Russell Martin isn’t going to get nontendered or traded or not made the starter. Bengie Molina is not going to play for the Dodgers. Do you think Joe Torre would want to see Bengi Molina as the starting catcher? I sure don’t. Torre loves Martin.
I don't think
Torre loves Martin, I’m pretty sure that Ned does not love Martin. I would not be so sure of your statement.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
The one thing Torre does to those he favors is play his favs. Even with a ‘reduced’ workload in 2009, Martin still lead the majors in innings caught.
Torre even had Brad Ausmus if he wanted to shaft Martin, but he didn’t do that. Heck, even when he had 3 catchers at times, he didn’t pull Martin despite the season long slump. While Ausmus isn’t a starter, Torre could have played Ausmus way more, but it was Martin, Martin, Martin, Martin, Martin, Marting 8 out of 9 games.
I know people are done on Martin
somewhat justifiably, but Brad Ausmus was sort of the Juan Castro of backstops- the more he would’ve played, the more we would have seen the “real” Brad Ausmus.
Of course, Martin DEFINITELY could’ve used a few more days off.
Japanese baseball blogs here and here are linking to stories that indicate the Chiba Lotte Marines are interested in purchasing the contract of Dodgers left-hander Eric Stults.
Stults, who turns 30 next week, went 4-3 in 10 starts for the Dodgers last season, including a shutout. Chiba Lotte reportedly thinks he can pitch in their rotation.
We can’t even afford Eric Stults now.
http://diamondleung.tumblr.com/post/266031549/dodgers-willing-to-sell-off-eric-stults
Silver Lining =
McJackass obviously doesn’t see himself owning the Dodgers in 3-5 years since he just screwed the 2012-2015 Dodgers.
Hopefully its much much much much much much much much much much much much much much much much much much much sooner.
if we trade for halladay
we’d probably have needed those draft picks.
it’s always nice to have more players in the farm.
... we sittin here talking about practice. not a game, not a game.
Relegation, baby!!
I keep thinking about my earlier comment about what should happen to the Dodgers should they not offer arb to Hudson…and now they’ve jumped the shark by not offering arb to anyone. If there truly was a way to punish this ownership, not for contenting mind you, because all said and done, we will contend in 2010 and still have a good chance at the playoffs, would you do it? In a fantasy world where something like relegation could be done, I mean?
Seriously, Frank has now shown that he was so paranoid about even the slight possibility of adding $8-20 million of salary (I figure Hudson and Wolf would get $8-10 mil), that he chose to punt on 4 draft picks next year, and by extension, will probably punt this off-season, too. Not that this would surprise any of us.
Just sell the team, Frank.
Mean to say
Not for contending but by showing ownership attitudes more closely aligned with Pittsburgh and Kansas City than the Phillies, Cubs, or Mets (let alone Yanks/Red Sox).
Now I'm confused
“Our decision was made strictly from a baseball perspective,” Colletti said.
So Colletti is lying, or he’s a motherfucking idiot. But both are equally likely, especially since the Dodgers wanted Maddux back after 2006 but didn’t offer arbitration.
Or it could even be possible that Colletti is just mad at Logan White right now and he’s going to stick to his grudge in the meantime (like after JD Drew opted out).
Not that any of this is encouraging, except that there is the possibility that the Dodgers might not be the Florida Marlins. We might be the Seattle Mariners or the New York Mets.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers2-2009dec02,0,7267450.story
Randy Wolf looks just as confused as the rest of us in this picture
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 2, 2009 9:08 AM PST up reply actions
Colletti did come from a public relations background
So he has plenty of experience spewing out bullshit to the public…
Noting that his team is short on starting pitching, Colletti says he remains interested in re-signing Wolf.
If anybody believes that I’ve got a bridge to sell them.
Yes,
He just wanted to increase the price that it would take to sign Wolf before signing him. Makes sense to me. Why have an advantage over everyone else negotiating with Wolf when you can have none?
One positive note
My detective work proved correct RE: Jason Grilli. He signed with the Indians on a minor league deal.
http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2009/12/02/grilli-signs-with-indians/
http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2009/12/right-hander_jason_grilli_sign.html
Beltre signs with Padres
No, not that Beltre.
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4706091&name=arangure_jorge_jr
Last week, without much buzz or fanfare, 16-year-old Dominican catching prospect Jacob Beltre agreed to terms with the San Diego Padres for a $60,000 bonus, a fraction of what many thought he would command just months ago when he was considered one of the top prospects in Latin America
I hate that we have NO sandwich picks
So when our first rounder goes out the window, we have to wait until, what, the 60s or 70s? Bullshit.
If all Type As and Bs sign elsewhere, our 2nd round pick will be #92
by Eric Stephen on Dec 2, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
So if Ned signs a Type A reliever (Soriano, Gonzalez, Betancourt), I guess we can look forward to more Songcos and Smiths, as opposed to Miller and Gould.
To me, the only Type A they would sign is Scutaro, and that seems like a long shot.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 2, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
They were interested in Juan Cruz last year, though. Soriano is better and will most likely get consideration.
Last year they had Broxton, with half a year of closing experience, Kuo, and Wade as the only 3 mainstays in the bullpen.
This year, they have Broxton, Sherrill, Kuo, Belisario, and Troncoso, plus McDonald in some capacity.
They aren’t in the market for any type of expensive late-inning reliever. A veteran in the Mota role, perhaps, but none of the Type As.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 2, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
Good point
But again, we had all of those guys on July 30 and still traded away two good prospects for a late inning reliever.
With Mota gone, Ned would definitely look at Soriano as an upgrade and slot him in as Broxton’s backup closer.
I don’t understand your rationale or reasoning behind thinking the Dodgers, who are clearly strapped for cash, and have holes at 2B & SP, would sign a free agent closer who will cost somewhere in the $8-12m range per year
by Eric Stephen on Dec 2, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
I guess it’s because I think he’ll cost a lot less than that. I could see Ned doling out 2/12 to Soriano.
Billy Wagner just came off an injury and signed for a guaranteed $7 million. Soriano will get more.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 2, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
I will add, too, that at the time of the Sherrill acquisition, Kuo had only been back for a week, Belisario was on the DL, and Broxton had the nagging toe injury lingering in the background.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 2, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
I see absolutely no need to sign a RP
When we’ve got Troncoso, Belasario, Sherrill, Kuo, and Broxton already here, with Wade in the minors and Lindblom making his way up if necessary.
Taking the full pessimistic view, let’s say they sign Scutaro for $5-6m per year for two years, for 2B. Now they have a 2B at 70-80% of the cost of Hudson, and don’t “have to” pay a ~$1m draft bonus for their #28 pick in the 2010 draft.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 2, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Jay Jaffe chimes in
at his website, Futility Infielder:
Furthermore, not only are they pennywise and pound-foolish when it comes to a substantial return on a relatively small investment in 2010 first-round picks, but they’ve been that way for longer than most of us realize
Quoth colleague Kevin Goldstein: “Santana’s bat is so special that if he was a first-base prospect, he’d still be elite.” I asked Kevin if he would rank among the game’s top 10 or 25 prospects in his 2010 Top 100 list, and he suggested that he’d likely be somewhere in between those two numbers. Ouchie
.
It’s a dark day for Dodger baseball, as both Weisman and MSTI conclude. I concur, to the point that I’m going to have to substantially rewrite my Baseball Prospectus 2010 team essay in light of this news
Instant Poll:
Who’s having the worst week?
A. Dodger fans
B. Tiger Woods
C. Charlie Weis
(My vote is “A”)
(should have added “D. Baby Eric is about to punch in face”)
by KellyStephen on Dec 2, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
A. is the correct answer
B. while kind of a shitty week, he does still have millions of dollars (maybe he could buy the Dodgers)
C. Just my opinion but he should be relieved that he no longer has to coach at ND, the expectations of the alumni are so out of the realm of possibility in the age of the BCS.
D. Bengie starting catcher in ’10 is totally unreal, so baby will be fine
by MammothDodger on Dec 2, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
I’m pretty terrified for the future of the Dodgers if they were afraid of offering arbitration to two players who would a) most likely decline, and b) actually fill holes and not cost us a long term committment on the off chance they accepted.
Something tells me this could be a long winter for Dodger fans…
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
It's been told that we are
If yesterday didn’t give you an answer, I don’t know what will
by Julio Nievas on Dec 2, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
I can live with a quiet offseason
Doing nothing is bad enough, but actually hurting the team is far far worse. Yesterday’s action very much hurt the team, although much further down the road.
Obviously next season is still aways off, but so far, the 2010 plan put forth by several blogs is completely superior to what the Dodgers are actually doing.
Never fear
Noah Lowry is on the Dodgers’ radar, per Jerry Crasnick (ESPN Insider):
Lowry, 29, hasn’t pitched since August 2007 because of a rib injury, but the Dodgers have a connection to him. Colletti and Dodgers trainer Stan Conte were both in San Francisco in 2005 when Lowry pitched 204 innings and won 13 games for the Giants
I would be totally fine with Lowry as an NRI. Any type of guaranteed money is foolish.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 2, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
What was up with his injury?
That caused him to miss two full seasons?
I just tweeted this
If I had to choose between pitchers I want on the #Dodgers who haven’t pitched since 2007, I’d pick Schilling over Lowry #spicehumor
Any type of guaranteed money is foolish.
Maybe the team will start printing their own “Dodger Dollars” now to help make ends meet and pay free agents. We could then pay Weaver 2 Million in Dodger Dollars.
Keith Law chimes in
on ESPN Insider:
The Dodgers just threw away four draft picks by failing to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson. I spoke to one front office executive with another club who inferred from the non-moves that “they’re broke.” There’s little baseball logic to it — Wolf is headed for a multi-year deal elsewhere, and getting Hudson back for a year would have been a boon should he accept
at least the media is shining a light on this, I wonder if the local sports dudes on 710 etc. will run with this or not?
Jay Jaffe is on a Toledo radio station right now, and mentioned the Dodgers, noting “there was no way those players [Hudson & Wolf] would accept arbitration.”
http://1065theticket.com/ (maybe the clip will be up later)
I wish I was better at organizing
because then I would organize a lynch mob to storm the gates of McCourt’s castle and repeatedly kick him in the balls until he agreed to sell the team!
MLBTR is reporting the Dodgers are amongst a few teams interested in Kameron Loe
I have a feeling this year’s crop of NR Invitees is going to be borderline hilarious.
I’m pretty much OK with just about anyone as a NRI. No real risk and sometimes they pan out. However, you are right. Loe and Lowry so far do not impress.
I agree. By borderline hilarious, I guess I meant that I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone out of the California Penal league invited to camp.
You should have seen John Halama yesterday
pitching in DR. He looked 100. Think of Quaid in The Rookie. I would not be surprised to see him as NRI.
Correction
Quaid played a guy throwing 98.
Jim Morris would be cool. Dennis (or Randy Quaid), not so much.
DodgerDivorce reminds you to look on the bright side of life
And consider the possibility that there was a handshake agreement between the Dodgers and Wolf and Hudson not to offer arbitration. If Colletti violates that agreement, that’s not going to bode well for him in terms of keeping players’ trust. The man in snakeskin boots values character, after all.
Granted, that would be a stupid thing to agree to, but remember how genius those signings looked? We paid Wolf $8 million guaranteed in 2007, and he was guaranteed $5m this year. And Hudson got $8m with incentives but was only guaranteed $3.375m, and the Dodgers were hailed for the brilliant signing. Who knows.
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