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Winter Meeting Blues? Not for this blogger

Many Dodger fans and some writers have expressed displeasure with the fact the Dodgers sat on their hands during the recently concluded Winter Meetings. Getting past the angst of the unfathomable decision to not offer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson I'm having a hard time being outraged at the lack of movement. 

In fact I'm even feeling kind of optimistic about the Dodgers keeping their hands away from the cookie jar where they have been burned time and time again during Ned's reign. Not much good has come when the Dodgers have gone to the winter meetings in the past. Pop over to MLBTR and check out all the moves that happened during these meeting and then add in the fact the Lowell to Ranger deal and I'm not looking at very much I think the Dodgers missed out on.

The big names want big deals and I haven't seen a big name in the 2009 FA class that I'd be interested in even if the Dodgers had money.  Holliday or Bay? No thanks. Lackey would be great but not for his years and his price. It would have been nice to been in on the Granderson deal but we don't need an outfielder. E Jackson ended up being quite expensive so no thanks there. 

I've stressed in the past that I wish we were able to dip our feet into the plethora of injured but substantial skill set of Harden/Sheets/Bedard but given the price and the health risk, maybe next year at this time we'll be glad we didn't have the money to spend on the fragility of the best pitchers available.

Once Brad Penny got 7.5 I was saying no thank you and maybe Ned was doing the same. At the end of the winter meetings he expressed that he would be okay with giving the group of Elbert/McDonald/Lindblom/Stults/Haeger a chance to battle it out in spring training for the fifth spot. For anyone who follows this blog, I think all of us who write for TBLA would be pleased if that really happened. Elbert was the minor league pitcher of the year in 2009 and McDonald in 2008. At least one of those pitchers should be able to capably handle the back end of a rotation spot. I'm much more worried about Billingsley and Kuroda rebounding and taking on the pressure of being the backbones of the rotation then I am of one of the Isotopes group not being able to handle their end of the rotation.

We are trying to fill the fourth spot by moving Juan Pierre. Given that Coco Crisp and Mike Cameron are still available for less by millions it still appears to be a long shot for the Dodgers to move Juan. My gut says that if they are unable to move Juan then they will try their best to trade Sherrill instead. Given that Sherrill might be on the move management did spend $100,000 on two Rule Five pitchers. Both have some upside as the Dodgers try  the Venezuelan pipeline once again. 

Even though the team ownership appears bleak I don't think the team itself should be lumped into the same problem sack. We have to replace Wolf but we don't really have to replace the Wolf of 2009 who was better then anyone imagined.   The Dodgers will acquire a fourth starter, let us address the capabilities of that person when he's actually acquired.  We need a 2nd baseman, which could come internally from DeWitt or a combo of DeWitt/Free Agent(Belliard) or maybe a Felipe Lopez will become available as Ned waits out this years free agent class.

Given the lack of financial flexibility the current Dodger management has to work with they kind of have to utilize the wait and see approach. Luckily for them it might simply be the best approach. The core of the team for 2010 is set.

1st - Loney 2nd - Unknown, SS - Furcal, 3rd - Blake, C - Martin

LF - Manny , CF - Kemp, RF - Andre

SP - Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, (Elbert, Lindblom, Haeger, Stults, McDonald, Troncoso), Unknown

RP - Broxton, Kuo, Sherrill, Troncoso, Bellisario, Wade, Leach, Carlos MonasteriosArmando Zerpa, Justin Miller

This team should improve at 1st, SS, LF, and catcher. I'd expect Blake to regress a bit.  The bench needs to be built again. Right now it looks like Hu is the utility infielder with Pierre/Repko manning two outfield spots. One backup catcher is needed and then one left handed pinch hitter if Repko makes the team or a right handed pinch hitter if he doesn't. 

A quiet winter is not the worse thing that could happen to this team given the turmoil going on as the battle for who will own the team continues behind the scenes. The demise of the Dodgers has been overly exaggerated. The team is who plays the games and we still have one hell of a team and given the possible improvements from Loney, Kershaw,  rebounds from Martin/Billingsly, or exciting rotational debuts from Elbert, the combination of all these factors  could keep them on the same path they have been on the past two years. 

Ownership is a mess, the team isn't, lets not confuse the two. WIthout a doubt this team would be better suited to do battle with the Phillies/Cardinals/Braves with a payroll around the level of 2008 but it is not going to happen, so we just need to focus on what we can do with what we have to work with.  This optimism may be short lived but I'll work with it as long as I'm feeling it. 

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The amazing and fun to root for young core of the Dodgers makes things so much better than they otherwise could have been, which also confirms the idea that sometimes the moves to don’t make are as important as those you do.

Imagine if this team would be today had they sacrificed Kemp, Loney and Billingsley for a superstar (with a superstar contract) 2 years ago. McCourt and Colleti’s problems would potentially be magnified by 100×.

by LA Taco on Dec 11, 2009 3:25 PM PST reply actions  

great post

This is the first significant one that I’ve read anywhere that manages to look on the bright side WITHOUT rationalizing the ownership problems. If everything stands as is right now, the Dodgers still should be one of the best teams in the National League. During the Winter Meetings, not one of our main competitors improved themselves in any measurable way. We’ll see how the rest of the offseason goes.

by sarcastro9 on Dec 11, 2009 3:33 PM PST reply actions  

2010 should be a fun season.

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Dec 11, 2009 3:34 PM PST reply actions  

Core of youth

Well I still think they need a stud number 1 guy. Billingsley totally wilted last year. And I love him but Kuroda was not very strong when he came back. I agree with not throwing money away on a ‘super-star’ dud, ala Cubbies and Bradley, but I still would have at least kept Wolf. He had a good season with a good team and his second half was very nice. But the barn door was left open so maybe they can get some production from the young arms.

by Jagman55 on Dec 11, 2009 3:57 PM PST reply actions  

Welcome

nice avatar. We could use Big D right about now.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 11, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Well said sir

This sums up how I feel exactly. There are holes to fill, and worries (many connected to ownership situation) but overall I think the team promises to be pretty competitive next year. And that’s before unknown values are added, via FA, trade and the farm. All three will probably add to next year’s model.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Dec 11, 2009 4:14 PM PST reply actions  

You make a lot of valid points

I think it’s the trends and the appearance of not maximizing the moves they could make (like offering Wolf arbitration and losing out on draft picks).

It is important to be smart with the payroll, but chances have to be made and sometimes you can buy your own luck.

"If you don't take out his battery, he's going to keep going all day."

by S Jay Bruin on Dec 11, 2009 4:53 PM PST reply actions  

Nice post Phil and I agree with almost all of it

I know I may get jumped on but what would really be wrong with both Elbert and Lindblom in the rotaion and McDonald and Troncoso staying in their bullpen slots. I know it is risky to rely on that much youth, but I think it may be worth the shot especailly with Bills bouncing back from his late 2009 fad (broken leg complication) and hopefully a healthy Kuroda and our Cy young in waiting Kershaw. I think that would be a very dynamic young staff. Plus it would free up some cash to fill 2nd base and get a quality back up C so Martin can take off 30-35 games next season and maybe have a little freshness come sept.

by MammothDodger on Dec 11, 2009 4:57 PM PST reply actions  

The main problem

I’ve always had with rookies starting out the season in the rotation is that even if they live upto the expectations you can’t expect them to continue to contribute at that level when they start hitting the high innings mark as they move through the season. Not so much a problem for the fifth guy in the rotation but when you have two rookies your bucking the odds that not only well they be effective but that their arms can hold up for the whole season since they will be pitching more stressful innings then they have ever had to do before.

How many rookies have anything left for the playoffs if they started out the season in the rotation?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Dec 11, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I understand your point

and I guess we cannot expect the bullpen to work as many innings as last year, but a solid 5-6 innings by the 4th and 5th starter then turn it to the pen would only be 150 to 180 innings each. While I am not necessarly in favor of such a strategy I thought I would throw it out there and see what it stirs up. and I think I would prefer it to over paying (either in cash or prospects) for a Garland type pitcher.

by MammothDodger on Dec 11, 2009 9:32 PM PST up reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $8,500,000 arb
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 37 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$114,662,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
60 Matt Chico lhp
29
35 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
62 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
33 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 19

For more info, click here.


Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

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100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Dgy_small David Young

Hanauma_bay_small Chad Moriyama

2501_small Michael White

Raptors_small Brandon Lennox