Aaron Harang Dodger Rumor
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 17, 2009 9:04 AM PST
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Normally we would not pay much attention to a rumor like this but given the dearth of Dodger roster interest this winter lets bring this up for discussion. Am I being nitpicky about this? Dylan writes:
Harang, a 31-year-old right-hander, finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2007 and tied for the league lead in wins in 2006 with 16. But Harang has won only six games over the last two seasons, losing a total of 31 games over that span.
Reading this I would think that Harang has won only six games total in 2008 and 2009 instead of the actual total of six wins per season. I just want to make sure everyone at TBLA understands the win total. Not that it matters much because even six wins season is kind of sucky for a guy draining a team with a huge % of the total payroll tied to him but we know that pitching skills are what we focus on, not wins. To a point.
Everyone is making it a given that Sherrill would be part of the package because of his salary. That makes sense to me if the Reds can then move Cordero but otherwise I can't see the Reds spending 16 Million on two pitchers in the bullpen. Cordero is already pulling down 12 Million in 2010 and 2011. Sherrill is expected to earn about 4 Million in arbitration. This does not sound like a match to me unless multiple teams are involved and we see quite a few players being moved around.
This line however is the line that should make us worried:
The Reds are asking for one or two players on the Dodgers' major league roster in return.
The Dodgers would want the Reds to pay for a portion of the $15 million Harang would be guaranteed if he is traded.
This smells very much like a sale, not a trade. Harang has so much salary (12.5 Million in 2010) owed him that we couldn't possibly be adding him without some special shenanigans taking place first. A straight swap of Juan for Aaron would have matched up, the word was that the Dodgers were trying to get a starting pitcher for Juan but the 3rd team backed out, so the Dodgers pulled the trigger on the deal with the White Sox. It is very possible that Harang was that guy.
The Reds will be looking for young cheap players if they are going to eat salary. Harang has skills, with a K Rate above 7.5 four years running. His walk rate hovers consistently between 2.2 and 2.4. His xERA of 4.29 was right in line with actual 4.21. WIth Harang you get what you see. The elite skills of 2006/2007 have slipped but he still has the skills to help a rotation like the Dodgers. All things being equal I'd be happy to see Aaron Harang in the rotation, but the price we'd have to pay to make it happen is where things get shaky.
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To me, the only way this deal works for the Dodgers is if the Reds are desperate to clear payroll space. If the Reds sent something like $5 million, and took Sherrill and his $4m, Harang would cost something like $6 million ($2.5m of which is his buyout in 2011).
I don’t know how feasible that is, but that’s how it would be a plus for the Dodgers. The Reds would also save ~$6 million or so in the deal too, which is their motivation in the first place.
Yea but would that mean we have to send extra prospects to get them to send cash? Or would they be happy to be dumping him and happily eat that $5 MM?
Why send extra prospects?
It’s not like Chicago charmed the pants off the Dodgers with the prospects they sent. Eric’s right, if Cincinatti wants to save money (like LA did with Pierre) the Dodgers will take him because there’s a need but Cincinnatti should pay half the bill (like the Dodgers did) and they’ll get the two PTBNL that the Dodgers are getting from Chicago.
by Michael White on Dec 17, 2009 9:21 AM PST up reply actions
If the Reds are desperate
they won’t require anything special in terms of prospects. We could probably get away with sending a Jon Link type.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions
If this can happen
Harang + $5 million for Sherrill and a B-minus/C-plus prospect…
…then get ready for the Humma Kavula Seal of Approval.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Dec 17, 2009 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
Harang = Sherrill and Jon Michael Redding?
by Julio Nievas on Dec 17, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Sherrill
is not headed to the Reds unless Cordero is headed somewhere else. That is a given.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 17, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
For some reason
I thought they had already moved Cordero. Are there any teams that would want him if the Reds threw in some heavy salary relief? They could slot Sherrill into the closer role and get back something OK for Cordero+Cash?
If Brandon Lyon can get $5m per year, the Reds could probably move Cordero by eating half his salary.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
Harang
FWIW, he still had a pretty good year last year with an x-FIP of 3.95 which is pretty solid (better than Bills and Wolf and comparable to Kershaw at 3.90.) Cincinnati is an extreme hitters park, so moving to LA would be a nice bump for him. Career x-FIP of 4.02 and really he had one bad year 2008 with an x-FIP of 4.18 which isn’t that bad.
As a pitcher, Harang would be a nice addition.
I am also encouraged that the Dodgers are pursuing the better of the two high-priced Reds’ starters (and not just because of Arroyo’s ridiculous leg kick). That is a good sign.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
FWIW he was battling injuries in both 2008 and 2009.
That could be seen as A) he could bounce back to 2007 form or B) He is now injury prone.
Also, oddly enough, when you look at his splits, he has pitched better at home in the extreme hitters park than on the road. It makes no sense, but maybe its just a matter of being comfortable for him.
Injury prone shchinjury prone
Randy Wolf is the king of injury prone and nobody wanted to shy away from him!
by Michael White on Dec 17, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
He battled injuries because Dusty Baker is our manager.
In 2008, he pitched several innings in relief in an extra inning game then came back on 3 days rest. In 2009 Baker did something similar.
You have a good manager, you shouldn’t worry.
big news
The atlanta braves have signed the Minor league home run king MITCH JONES…
i actually think he may get playing time this year...
how much.. who knows.. but i think he will get called up for the second straight year..
Farewell, sweet Mitch. Happy he got his first taste of MLB action with the Dodgers
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 9:35 AM PST up reply actions
Can't resist this, one last time --
Have you met Mitch Jones
Someone said as we shook hands
He was just Mitch Jones to me…
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Dec 17, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions
Harang would be an interesting move
because on the surface, many fans (and media) will hate that the Dodgers are getting a pitcher who was 12-31 with a 4.52 ERA over the last two years.
However, as Phil and Mike and others have pointed out, Harang is still a good pitcher.
I will venture to say that if DePodesta acquired a 12-31 pitcher he would get killed in the press. It will be interesting to see how this will be judged at first.
harang was always overrated..
in my opinion
I feel the opposite
although I admit it is hard to say someone is underrated when they signed a $36.5m (4-year) contract
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
He’s good, but he could be better is the knock on him I have heard in the past. Perhaps it’s true he’s overrated because he’s not performing up to the ability scouts and other think he has, but then again maybe he’s underrated by fans and GMs who see a big contract and not enough to show for it. So… you’re both right!
You would be fired
as host of The McLaughlin Group :)
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
You can still be overrated
and be useful.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 17, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
Overrated by who?
I don’t think he was ever called an Ace or anything. I remember in ’07 I picked him in fantasy in like the 10th or 12th round or something, and that pick definitely helped me win the league.
Harang value at 2.5 WAR = $11.25M
Harang value at 3.0 WAR = $13.5M
-————————————————————————-
Harang gauranteed money = $15M
Total value: -$3.75M to -$1.5M
To make this a fair trade the Dodgers should be dumping $2M to $3M of overpaid salary back onto the Reds, or the Reds should be paying a portion of Harang salary as a starting point to get back anything of value in return.
vr, Xei
Are you still looking for ideas for what to do with your simulator in the offseason?
I came up with an idea for you. You could run a sensitivity analysis on the 2009 season and see what would have happened if certain events happened. For example, would the Dodgers have made the playoffs in Lowe accepted arbitration and the Dodgers didn’t sign Wolf? How about if Dewitt was the starter instead of Hudson? Or if the Dodgers signed Randy Johnson instead of Wolf?
by Michael White on Dec 17, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
I like Eric and Humma's trade ideas proposed
above. Something along those lines would be fine by me. Or, heck, give them the minor leaguers we’re getting from the White Sox for Pierre and make it a delayed three way deal. ;-)
He’s due for a rebound, he would be a solid addition to the rotation. I just don’t want to see LA trade someone like Scott Elbert for him (gack).
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
the MLBTR guy suggests
Hu as a possibility in a trade with Reds. Just conjecture in that case. Approve or disapprove?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
See ya! (assuming Reds eat a significant portion of the salary)
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
Apparently the Reds are also in discussion with the Mets regarding Arroyo and others
I would guess that they would only end up dealing one of the two, just so they have at least one guy in their rotation who has thrown more than 200 innings.
Yeah
I can see that, which might make the Reds slightly less desperate
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
The idea that the Reds are more desperate to drop more payroll then the Dodgers seems so 2008. We just ate a bazillion dollars to free up a whopping 8 million, and then turned around and spent %25 of that saving on an old backup infielder who doesn’t even play SS.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
We just signed a shitload of NRIs
Eyechart!
Berroa!
Lindsey!
Among others. This according to Dylan H.
Thanks
my Twitter was acting up and I missed that
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
We even brought back Canuck favorite Francisco Felix.
by silverwidow on Dec 17, 2009 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
If Minky is an NRI
he is going to be on the opening day roster if he is healthy.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
No I couldn't
but I could see him beating out Hu. Joe loves Eyechart and Eyechart wouldn’t do an NRI with us unless he pretty much was told that if he is healthy he’ll make the team.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 17, 2009 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
Are we thinking Torre will go with a 12 man pitching staff next year?
No chance!
by Michael White on Dec 17, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
I think he means we might stick with 13. I don’t think we will if we acquire a guy like Harang though.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 17, 2009 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
Chris Henry is dead.
<a href="http://m.www.yahoo.com/ylt=AvCmrCO4gKYbSt66Y.iSVnmbvZx4;ylu=X3oDMTNodjY1N25rBGEDMDkxMjE3IHNwb3J0cyBjaHJpcyBoZW5yeSBvYml0IHQEY3BvcwMxBGcDaWQtMTcxNjgEaW50bAN1cwRwa2d2AzE4BHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0ZC1mZWF0BHNsawN0aXRsZQRzbHBvcwNGBHRlc3QDNzAx/SIG=13sp07106/**http%3A//sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Chris-Henry-could-have-been-a-very-important-rol%3Furn=nfl,209517" >Chris Henry
Thats a shame. He was finally turning things around (seemingly)
Thoughts go out to his family. I know he has three young kids.
Roster seems set:
Loney, Eyechart, DeWitt, Carroll, Furcal, Hu or Berroa, Blake, Martin, Backup Catcher
Andre, Kemp, Manny, Repko or Paul
Joy
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Damn
Now that I look at it, the Carroll signing bothers me more. I really wish we had gotten a utility guy that could also play SS, so we would have the opportunity of having Paul and Repko off the bench rather than having a Hu or Berroa type which is almost an automatic out.
Since I know what I'm going to get from our outfielders
I’d be more happy if:
Loney and Martin reach .800+ OPS again
Dewitt = .750+ OPS (is that a stretch?)
by Julio Nievas on Dec 17, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
A good thing
we have a trio of silver sluggers in the outfield.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 17, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
Loney
is the one out of the bunch that has the most probability to do it. If only he can transcend what he did on the road to DS. He’d be awesome.
by Julio Nievas on Dec 17, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
order of likeliehood imo
1) Dewitt .750+ OPS
2) Loney .800+ OPS
3) Pigs flying
4) Lasorda dieting
5) Martin .800+ OPS
vr, Xei
Of course Russell Martin is the only one out of that group that put up a .800+ OPS in a full season.
True
but Martin really is only 500 at bats removed from when he was an above average producer. Certainly if another year passes and the skill set does not come back then we may never see the old Martin again.
Martin in his young career has been a better hitter then he’s been a lousy hitter. I’d have to think he still has a good percentage chance to rebound.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 17, 2009 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
My sentiments exactly
http://www.truebluela.com/2009/12/17/1205585/jamey-is-no-ronny
New post up top
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 17, 2009 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
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