Roy Halladay sets a precedent
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 17, 2009 11:52 AM PST
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Not often you hear about a player actually doing something they only intimate at when salary is being discussed. You will hear many times that money is not the number one item but in the end it usually it. Rarely do they put their mouth where the money is.
Well, Roy Halladay did that and more. In one of Joe Sheehan's better columns he correctly points out that the biggest story in the blockbuster four-team trade was not the trade itself but the contract extension that Halladay signed.
Halladay’s contract is so far removed from his market value that it looks like an error. Remember, he had to approve not only the contract, but the trade to the Phillies that precipitated it. He made the choice that he wanted to be with the Phillies so much—and wanted to be with them immediately so much—that it was worth it to him to leave $60 million, $80 million, maybe $100 million unclaimed. There is no way anyone could have predicted this even a few weeks ago. This is the kind of decision that a player gets to make for himself and his family. Halladay gets to play for a contender in 2010 and gets to do so with a team he wishes to play for, one that holds spring training near his Florida home, and he valued those things more than the marginal dollars foregone by not testing the market. I don’t judge him for it, but I do think we should all be stunned by how much money this man left on the table. There is no precedent for it in sports.
Joe might be accused of hyperbole by saying there is no precedent in sports; I expect someone will come up with a comparable, Ken Griffey's contract with the Reds comes to mind. Still this is an amazing development. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball only signed a three year extension. Anyway I will now use this contract the next time Dave and I have the Wolf discussion.
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No way he left 100 mil on the table
He is being paid 75 mil over the next 4 years. He is 5 years older than CC when he signed and would be 6 years if he waited to test the free agent market next year. He is not as good as CC (unless you go by WAR, check out this site-http://www.sporcle.com/games/kevfujii/war2009pitching ) so throw the CC comparison out the window. . Then it comes down to this years free agents clearly he is superior to Lackey, who signed for comparable annual money also with a contender. Going off that contract he left maybe 15-20 million on the table at most. I just cannot see any justification for saying he left 9 figures out there.
WAR isn't the only metric that favors Halladay
In 2009
FIP
Halladay: 3.06
Sabathia: 3.39
x-FIP
Halladay: 3.05
Sabathia: 3.82
ERA
Halladay : 2.79
Sabathia: 3.37
Complete Games
Halladay: 9
Sabathia: 2
All the career stats favor Halladay as well. I actually had a hard time finding stats that showed Sabathia was better, so I’m not sure what your positioned that Sabathia is better than Halladay is based on. And yes, CC is younger, but he’s also 275 lbs. I’d be more concerned about Sabathia breaking down than Halladay.
by Michael White on Dec 17, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions
i was going off of memory
and having now looked at that the stats, I was remembering the 08 CC (era+ of 157) more than the 09 version. So even if it is claimed that Halladay is the equal to or slightly superior to CC, Roy would still be 6 years older than CC at their FA years and to say that Halladay left a 100 mil on the table is hyperbolic.
by MammothDodger on Dec 17, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions
Well, he probably did leave some money on the table
but I think Joe is also engaging in hyperbole when he reaches for a $60 – $100M figure. Look at the comps he uses: CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, John Lackey and A.J. Burnett.
- Halladay would have been a free-agent next off-season looking for someone to sign him for his age-34 and up seasons; those other guys were in their 20s, therefore Halladay’s FA deal would likely be shorter than the six or seven years those guys got. Derek Lowe’s contract should also give pause to clubs that would have thought of signing Halladay through age 39 or 40.
- Those guys all signed in New York or Boston. Are the Yankees or the Sox going to be looking for a big-name starter next off-season? Doesn’t seem certain and might be unlikely. Without them in the mix, it is a lot harder for Halladay to get more than $20M/season. (Any pitcher other than CC and Santana over $20M per?)
- Three of those guys were true FAs and had multiple suitors. Halladay’s leverage was limited to teams that would satisfy Toronto’s needs and were in a position to keep him.
- Santana’s contract was before the economic downturn.
- The odds of Halladay vesting his option sound pretty good. If that happens, it’s a 4/80 extension, which is only $2M less than Lackey/Burnett but for two less years, with a chance to sign another FA contract From Cot’s Baseball Contracts:
-2014 option guaranteed with all of the following:
-225 IP in 2013,
-415 IP in 2012-13, and
-Halladay is not on disabled list at end of 2013 season
He probably did leave at least $25M on the table. $5M to bump this year to $20M, and one more $20M year at the end.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
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